FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

Oy vey!  This week I think I'll vote UMU, Wheaton, and Wabash to the first three slots, then drop to about 8th!  JCU loses, IWU should have lost to what will probably be the last-place CCIW team (they were down 8 w/ 1:20 to play, got a TD, missed the 2-point conversion, succeeded on the onside kick, scored the winning TD w/ about 8 seconds remaining), and NCC is having all sorts of trouble with a sub-mediocre Millikin team!  (Witt won decisively, but c'mon - it was Woo!)  I've got a lot of investigating to do after the top three.

But to those who tried to convince me that Olivet was better than Adrian (I think it was USee who spear-headed the effort), mea culpa!  I stand convinced.  (In fact with the trouble Albion had beating Hope, I'll now slot Olivet as #1 in the MIAA.)

[USee]

The weather (specifically the wind) played a major role in games across the country today. Some strange scores that I would take with a grain of salt.

[wally_wabash]

The weather (specifically the wind) played a major role in games across the country today. Some strange scores that I would take with a grain of salt.

That NCC score is a little deceptive as well.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The weather (specifically the wind) played a major role in games across the country today. Some strange scores that I would take with a grain of salt.

That NCC score is a little deceptive as well.

Well, it is and it isn't.  NCC dominated all the stats except for the only one that ultimately counts throughout the game.  Finally in the fourth, the ultimate stat came to them as well.

[USee]

The weather (specifically the wind) played a major role in games across the country today. Some strange scores that I would take with a grain of salt.

That NCC score is a little deceptive as well.

Well, it is and it isn't.  NCC dominated all the stats except for the only one that ultimately counts throughout the game.  Finally in the fourth, the ultimate stat came to them as well.

What's interesting about the NCC Millikin game is that the NCC coaches finally realized the freshman, Hunniford, didn't have it today (in part because of the wind) and when they went with Warden, they dominated. Last week vs Wesley it was the opposite, Warden put the ball on the ground and killed momentum while Hunniford was lightning in a bottle.

[USee]

crickets.......

[wally_wabash]

Got the last ballot in this morning...I'll have the poll up in about 2.5 hours.  Some really interesting stuff this week.  Should make for some good discussion. 

[wally_wabash]

And here is your North Region Fan Poll through Week 5:


1- Mount Union (4-0)        80 points (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2- Wheaton (4-0)            71 points (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3)
3- Wabash (4-0)             65 points (2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4- North Central (2-2)      48 points (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 10)
5- Illinois Wesleyan (4-0)  42 points (4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8)
6- Wittenberg (3-1)         32 points (5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9, x)
7- Albion (4-0)             25 points (4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, x, x)
8- Olivet (4-0)             22 points (7, 7, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 10)
9- DePauw (4-0)             21 points (5, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, x, x)
10- Ohio Northern (3-1)     14 points (5, 6, 9, 10, x, x, x, x)

ORV:
John Carroll (3-1)          9 points (6, 7, x, x, x, x, x, x)
Rose Hulman (4-0)           7 points (8, 9, 10, 10, x, x, x, x)
Franklin (3-2)              3 points (9, 10, x, x, x, x, x, x)
Denison (4-0)               1 point (10, x, x, x, x, x, x, x)



The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF, USee, and wally wabash.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'd better watch it or they'll take away my Green card - I was the 8 for IWU.   I may have overreacted to that abomination against Carthage.  After all, bottom line, they DID win.

I'm still one of the non-votes for DePauw.  They have 4 blowout wins, but the opponents have a total of three wins amongst them.   There are probably AT LEAST 100 D3 teams that would be 4-0 against Earlham, Wooster, Hiram, and Kenyon!  This week they finally get the chance to prove themselves one way or the other.  If they beat Witt, or even give them a tight game, they'll (probably) finally be on my ballot.

The spread of vote positions for Albion is one of the most extreme I can recall for mid-season.

wally, you've been talkin' up Denison - is their vote yours?  Their 4-0 record isn't QUITE as lame a DePauw's, but the opponents still have totalled only five wins (and the next opponent is Hiram), so I'll also await their Witt game in two weeks before rendering judgment.

[wally_wabash]

I am indeed the Denison vote.  DuShawn Brown is a monster and Denison is playing some high level defense.  With John Carroll losing and dropping out, I had a spot open for probably either Franklin, ONU, or Denison and I opted for the team with best defense there. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

I am indeed the Denison vote.  DuShawn Brown is a monster and Denison is playing some high level defense.  With John Carroll losing and dropping out, I had a spot open for probably either Franklin, ONU, or Denison and I opted for the team with best defense there.

Yeah, that's a defensible approach (though I'd take both ONU and Franklin over Denison's achievements so far). 

Rose Hulman is another 4-0 team about whom there is little there there (their opponents have a total of four wins).  Franklin at least goes ambitious in the non-con games.  I find their 3-2 way more impressive than RHIT's 4-0.  The HCAC is otherwise so pathetic that the only measuring sticks for Franklin and RHIT are non-con games and each other (Oct 24 this season) - and Rose took a pass on the non-con schedule.

Bottom line for those with perfect (but unimpressive) records IMO: DePauw I find out this week, Denison next week, and Rose Hulman (AND Franklin, who fell off my ballot this week) the following week

[USee]

You can't just say "they played Earlham, Wooster, Hiram and Kenyon" and "there are 100 teams that could beat those guys". As Wally would say that's lazy voting. Part of the responsibility of voting (ok this is pretend voting) is to look beyond just a simple set of data like who they played. Voting and ranking teams is like a jigsaw puzzle. We have imperfect pieces of the puzzle in the form of data and we have to try and make decisions based on limited information and imperfect comparison's.

Depauw's case is simple. While they are 4-0 against the weak sisters of the blind, they are clearly a good team. 19 starters are back from a 7-3 team including all 5 offensive linemen, their top 3 RB's and a two year starter at QB. They are good, they are going to be good. I think they may just beat Witt this weekend. Regardless, they are a top 10 region team. With that, here is my ballot and some color:

1. UMU-Their opponents have a combined 5 wins (I have heard this argument before), they must suck so I thought about dropping them off my ballot because they haven't played anyone.
2. Wheaton-4 key starters have sat out one of the last two and their depth keeps them rolling. No sign of weakness yet
3. Wabash-Fear the flock. They have the quality Witt win and they keep rolling. No let up in sight
4. North Central-new rb, rotating qb's, no playmakers on defense yet they are literally 2 plays from being 4-0 against arguably the best schedule in the country. Are we still not convinced UWP and Wesley are any good?
5. IWU-games like Carthage this team lost last year. They found a way to win in tough conditions, on the road when their frosh qb wasn't playing well.
6. Wittenberg-This seems like a top 25 team to me. I will be watching them closely this week against the Tigers from Greendingle
7.Olivet-This is the best team in the MIAA and now has a quality win over the league favorite. Wasn't hard to see, 20 returning starters from a team that lost 4 games by a total of 19 pts last year. They will be the AQ from MIAA
8. Depauw-see comments for #1
9. Albion-house of cards. Talk about zero quality wins? Combine that with bad defense and a team that struggled against Hope. This team will lose and probably more than once
10. Rose Hulman-4-0 against the powder puff girls but 18 starters, including their QB, from a 7-3 team and they have my eye. next three weeks will tell us a lot.

Next group in:
ONU-The synthetic Bluffton loss is troubling
Denison-I like their style. Could make a splash
JCU-yuck.

[Mr. Ypsi]

You can't just say "they played Earlham, Wooster, Hiram and Kenyon" and "there are 100 teams that could beat those guys". As Wally would say that's lazy voting. Part of the responsibility of voting (ok this is pretend voting) is to look beyond just a simple set of data like who they played. Voting and ranking teams is like a jigsaw puzzle. We have imperfect pieces of the puzzle in the form of data and we have to try and make decisions based on limited information and imperfect comparison's.

Depauw's case is simple. While they are 4-0 against the weak sisters of the blind, they are clearly a good team. 19 starters are back from a 7-3 team including all 5 offensive linemen, their top 3 RB's and a two year starter at QB. They are good, they are going to be good. I think they may just beat Witt this weekend. Regardless, they are a top 10 region team. With that, here is my ballot and some color:

1. UMU-Their opponents have a combined 5 wins (I have heard this argument before), they must suck so I thought about dropping them off my ballot because they haven't played anyone.
2. Wheaton-4 key starters have sat out one of the last two and their depth keeps them rolling. No sign of weakness yet
3. Wabash-Fear the flock. They have the quality Witt win and they keep rolling. No let up in sight
4. North Central-new rb, rotating qb's, no playmakers on defense yet they are literally 2 plays from being 4-0 against arguably the best schedule in the country. Are we still not convinced UWP and Wesley are any good?
5. IWU-games like Carthage this team lost last year. They found a way to win in tough conditions, on the road when their frosh qb wasn't playing well.
6. Wittenberg-This seems like a top 25 team to me. I will be watching them closely this week against the Tigers from Greendingle
7.Olivet-This is the best team in the MIAA and now has a quality win over the league favorite. Wasn't hard to see, 20 returning starters from a team that lost 4 games by a total of 19 pts last year. They will be the AQ from MIAA
8. Depauw-see comments for #1
9. Albion-house of cards. Talk about zero quality wins? Combine that with bad defense and a team that struggled against Hope. This team will lose and probably more than once
10. Rose Hulman-4-0 against the powder puff girls but 18 starters, including their QB, from a 7-3 team and they have my eye. next three weeks will tell us a lot.

Next group in:
ONU-The synthetic Bluffton loss is troubling
Denison-I like their style. Could make a splash
JCU-yuck.

Comments on some of the teams.

UMU has played nobody yet this year, but we have 30 years of evidence that they are probably pretty damn good; much less on anyone else.
IWU - true (though their qb is a sophomore, not a freshman - pretty sure he had too much playing last year to be a medical redshirt).
Olivet's opponents are 5-12; I had obviously overrated Adrian, so not sure they have a quality win (Earlham, Carthage, Aurora, Adrian).
Albion gave UWSP their only loss so far; their opponents are 8-8 (therefore 8-4 against anyone besides Albion).
RHIT was 7-3 last year, but in the HCAC does that really mean anything - they lost to Bluffton and MSJ for heaven's sake!  (And ONU's loss to Bluffton apparently kept you from ranking them.)

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Synthetic Bluffton loss? Is that because ONU lost to BW who lost to Bluffton? Because if so why not go one step further and add in that Bluffton lost to Wilmington

[ExTartanPlayer]

You can't just say "they played Earlham, Wooster, Hiram and Kenyon" and "there are 100 teams that could beat those guys". As Wally would say that's lazy voting. Part of the responsibility of voting (ok this is pretend voting) is to look beyond just a simple set of data like who they played. Voting and ranking teams is like a jigsaw puzzle. We have imperfect pieces of the puzzle in the form of data and we have to try and make decisions based on limited information and imperfect comparison's.

Depauw's case is simple. While they are 4-0 against the weak sisters of the blind, they are clearly a good team. 19 starters are back from a 7-3 team including all 5 offensive linemen, their top 3 RB's and a two year starter at QB. They are good, they are going to be good. I think they may just beat Witt this weekend. Regardless, they are a top 10 region team. With that, here is my ballot and some color:

Agreed.  We take our prior beliefs, update them with what we see throughout the season.

I'm fine with holding off on DePauw as one of the region's elite (top 4-5), but sticking with an arbitrary construct that you won't rank them at all just because they have opened with four weak sisters is kind of a cop-out.  They haven't exactly struggled to win any of those games.  I don't think they're ranked by most people just because they have "4-0" next to them in the standings, but rather because coming into the season it was reasonable to expect that they would be pretty good (for the reasons USee has stated) and to date they have looked the part against bad teams, just like they're supposed to.

Thing is, beyond the top 3-4 teams, nobody is perfect.  Everybody has a flaw.  Some are undefeated against what we perceive as a weak schedule, some have a loss to a good team...these are all judgement calls, and having a couple different voices in the room is what makes it fun.

Of course, Mr. Ypsi, you are correct that we will get answers for these teams in short order.

*Comment on Albion: it's been a couple of weeks and maybe the more recent results matter the most (Week 1 results can always be head-scratchers in hindsight) but are we really so quick to dismiss that win over UWSP (referring to Usee's "zero quality wins" statement, which might be tongue in cheek).  Is that really so different from IWU's win over Franklin?  I do agree that the #4 vote for them seems almost shockingly high (and probably would have them 8th or 9th in my own poll), so I don't disagree with Usee's positioning of them, just surprised that they also get the no-quality-wins treatment when they beat a UWSP team that is currently 3-1 (and coming off a 7-3 season last year that included a win over North Central).

**I also think we should take a moment just to admire the turnaround job at Olivet, who went 2-48 from 2008-2012 (three winless seasons in five years).  Their current seniors went 0-10 as freshmen.  This year they sit 4-0 with a chance (not a lock, but a chance...given the way the MIAA has shaken out the last few years, someone may pick them off) to run the table.  Impressive stuff, regardless of where they end up in the RR's.