FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

Denison is only up 14-6 on Hiram in the 4th?  Not overly impressive.

Denison has the longest active win streak in D3*.  Just sayin'.   

*unless you count Amherst, which I don't

I'm glad you don't count the intramural team from Amherst.

Denison just barely beats out Olivet and Albion (haven't checked non-playoff teams from other regions), but they still haven't beaten squat THIS season.  They have three chances in the next four weeks to rectify that deficiency.  Until then, they are on my radar, but not on my ballot.

[wally_wabash]

I haven't started on my 10 yet, but I'm thinking Denison may have lost support this week.  That's a pair of pretty uninspiring games from them in the last two weeks.  And now they're doing weird things with their quarterback.  Their defense is solid, but they've lost their offense which will catch up with them next week. 

[wally_wabash]

All of the ballots are in- poll up tonight around 6 EDT.   

[wally_wabash]

And here is your North Region Fan Poll through Week 6:


1- Mount Union (5-0)        80 points (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1)
2- Wheaton (5-0)            69 points (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3)
3- Wabash (5-0)             67 points (2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3)
4- North Central (3-2)      50 points (4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 6, 8)
5- Illinois Wesleyan (5-0)  48 points (4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6)
6- DePauw (5-0)             35 points (5, 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8)
7- Olivet (5-0)             34 points (6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8)
8- Albion (5-0)             28 points (5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9)
9- John Carroll (4-1)        9 points (5, 9, 10, x, x, x, x, x)
10- Wittenberg (3-2)         6 points (8, 9, 10, x, x, x, x, x)
10- Rose Hulman (5-0)        6 points (9, 9, 10, 10, x, x, x, x)
10- Franklin (4-2)           6 points (9, 9, 10, 10, x, x, x, x)

ORV:
Ohio Northern (3-2)          1 point (10, x, x, x, x, x, x, x)
Denison (5-0)                1 point (10, x, x, x, x, x, x, x)



The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF, USee, and wally wabash.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Just one vote really jumped out at me - who still has JCU at #5, and why?   I'm the sole vote for ONU - they did beat JCU (AT JCU).

Haven't shared my ballot yet this year; here it is:

1. UMU (duh!)
2. Wheaton
3. Wabash (could easily be 2a and 2b)
4. NCC
5. IWU (I had bent over backwards to not be a homer, but have finally been won over; in fact, I now think they will beat NCC, but haven't had the guts to move them ahead yet))
6. Olivet
7. DePauw (my 6 v 7 would make for a helluva first-round game!)
8. Witt
9. Albion
10 ONU

Denison and RHIT are both still too untested for my taste - at 5-0 they've both done everything they could but against NOBODY.  Franklin is absolutely killing the nobodies of the world, but lost their only two 'real' games.  Fortunately, Denison will get tested soon, and Franklin and RHIT will eventually settle the HCAC.

[bluestreak66]

Ypsi;
Not that I'm trying to ridicule your ballot (I think most of it looks pretty good), but what is the logic of putting Witt all the way up at 8, or for that matter, ONU at 10, while leaving JCU off all together?
I know JCU isn't necessarily top 5 material, but fact of the matter is that they have one loss, while both those teams have 2. Before ONU lost to Mount, I fully agreed that they should be ranked ahead. But once they got that second loss, they should have dropped. Based on overall body of work, shouldn't JCU be ahead of ONU? Not to draw a comparison to DI, but that would be like putting Ole Miss ahead of Bama (despite Ole Miss being blown out by Florida) strictly because Ole Miss happened to beat Bama. Can anyone really argue that Ole Miss is overall the better team based on one game, in light of what happened after? (also, lets not forget that Witt was blown away by bash, and ONU also lost to BW, who JCU was able to beat).
Again, I don't mean to criticize.

[wally_wabash]

I moved Denison off this week.  I really like the defense they are playing, but the Big Red offense has really stalled out.  Having a defense that can win a game against Witt or DePauw or Wabash by 10-9 or 17-6 scores is one thing, doing it against OWU and Hiram is another.  I do think their defense will pose problems for those three, but right now I'm not sure where the points come from against the better teams.  So, Denison goes back into the prove it pile for me. 

I also moved Albion down quite a bit.  The Britons have been very impressive offensively, but their defense is one of the worst statistically in D3 through half of a season.  That's enough to know that this is just kind of what they are and you just can't give up 500 yards and 35 points every game and keep winning.  Reckoning day is coming for Albion I believe. 

Kind of bummed that we have JCU ahead of ONU.  JCU has zero quality results in their 2015 portfolio while ONU beat them h2h and has a win over Utica which looks better every week.  I know they got smashed by UMU, but that fate is coming to everybody in the OAC.  I'm just not seeing a logical reason to rank JCU ahead of ONU at this point (I'm ranking neither personally). 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ypsi;
Not that I'm trying to ridicule your ballot (I think most of it looks pretty good), but what is the logic of putting Witt all the way up at 8, or for that matter, ONU at 10, while leaving JCU off all together?
I know JCU isn't necessarily top 5 material, but fact of the matter is that they have one loss, while both those teams have 2. Before ONU lost to Mount, I fully agreed that they should be ranked ahead. But once they got that second loss, they should have dropped. Based on overall body of work, shouldn't JCU be ahead of ONU? Not to draw a comparison to DI, but that would be like putting Ole Miss ahead of Bama (despite Ole Miss being blown out by Florida) strictly because Ole Miss happened to beat Bama. Can anyone really argue that Ole Miss is overall the better team based on one game, in light of what happened after? (also, lets not forget that Witt was blown away by bash, and ONU also lost to BW, who JCU was able to beat).
Again, I don't mean to criticize.

H-t-h is to me a definitive factor (especially if on the road) unless there is compelling reason elsewhere in the resume.  (Unlike the d3.com poll, or even the consensus of the national fan poll, my national ballot had UWW remaining higher than UWO because, while I can't evaluate NAIA teams, I trust the NAIA voters to do so, and they have the team UWW BEAT ranked higher than the team UWO LOST to; since the conventional wisdom is that home field is worth about 3 points, I count UWW's loss AT UWO by 3 to be de facto a tie.)  The BW games were long enough ago to lose some of their clout, and ONU lost by 1, JCU won by 3; not to me a 'compelling' factor.  I therefore was definitely inclined to keep ONU just ahead of JCU (who would be either 11th or 12th behind Franklin); the total wipeout UMU gave to ONU therefore lowered them both significantly on my ballot.

As to Witt, both their losses were to teams higher on my ballot, and I suspect (obviously don't know) that they would beat the teams below them.  To paraphrase wally_wabash: where is it written that the NCAC can't have THREE good teams at the same time?  Wabash and DePauw are both better, but Witt can still be good.

[ExTartanPlayer]

...for that matter, ONU at 10, while leaving JCU off all together?

I know JCU isn't necessarily top 5 material, but fact of the matter is that they have one loss, while both those teams have 2. Before ONU lost to Mount, I fully agreed that they should be ranked ahead. But once they got that second loss, they should have dropped.

This is flawed thinking though ("once they got that second loss") because it ignores the effect that schedule sequence has on when a team picks up a "second" loss.  ONU just beat John Carroll head-to-head at John Carroll last week.  It's a simple fluke that they played Mount Union the next week and picked up their second loss.  If John Carroll had played Mount Union this week, instead they would have two losses.  Just counting the number of losses is a lazy way to rank teams.  ONU beat them head to head.  Their resumes are otherwise comparable, and ONU has a better win (Utica) than any win from JCU to date; ONU has a second loss only because they happened to play Mount before JCU plays Mount.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

(Unlike the d3.com poll, or even the consensus of the national fan poll, my national ballot had UWW remaining higher than UWO because, while I can't evaluate NAIA teams, I trust the NAIA voters to do so, and they have the team UWW BEAT ranked higher than the team UWO LOST to; since the conventional wisdom is that home field is worth about 3 points, I count UWW's loss AT UWO by 3 to be de facto a tie.)

Where were you a couple years ago when I put North Central ahead of Mount Union in the final poll after NCC lost in the semifinals at Mount by 1 point (and then Mount got blown out by UWW 52-14)?

This week I voted
Mount
Wabash, Wheaton
...
NCC
...
Albion, IWU
DePauw, Olivet
...
..
Rose
...
Denison

Basically I don't think anyone is really worthy of #10 right now (and Rose-Hulman is slipping down towards that territory too) but Denison has taken care of business so far (and no one has an impressive win) so they get the spot over Franklin, John Carroll, ONU and the rest for the moment. Now after they most likely lose to Witt this week someone else will be lucky that I have to have a 10th team.

[USee]

My ballot

UMU-suck like RHIT but they won a few titles a couple generations ago
Wabash- flipped them w Wheaton because thunder are not at full strength
Wheaton- defense is really good
Pile of Suck- Wesley and UWP clearly better
IWU - they are good but haven't beaten anyone good in my view so we wait
Olivet- who knew?
Depauw- I called the Witt win
Albion-UWSP looks better but holy Swiss cheese!
Witt- no way I can rank the others ahead of this team, flaws included
Derrick Rose Hulman- they get the best of the rest title for now. 

[bluestreak66]

...for that matter, ONU at 10, while leaving JCU off all together?

I know JCU isn't necessarily top 5 material, but fact of the matter is that they have one loss, while both those teams have 2. Before ONU lost to Mount, I fully agreed that they should be ranked ahead. But once they got that second loss, they should have dropped.

This is flawed thinking though ("once they got that second loss") because it ignores the effect that schedule sequence has on when a team picks up a "second" loss.  ONU just beat John Carroll head-to-head at John Carroll last week.  It's a simple fluke that they played Mount Union the next week and picked up their second loss.  If John Carroll had played Mount Union this week, instead they would have two losses.  Just counting the number of losses is a lazy way to rank teams.  ONU beat them head to head.  Their resumes are otherwise comparable, and ONU has a better win (Utica) than any win from JCU to date; ONU has a second loss only because they happened to play Mount before JCU plays Mount.

I understand that logic, but the point is, JCU didn't play mount. ONU did. While I agree teams shouldn't be ranked strictly on win/loss (Denison), it also isn't really fair to penalize a team for a loss they don't even have yet. JCU will likely lose to Mount, but they shouldn't be held down in the rankings based on that assumption

[ExTartanPlayer]

JCU didn't play mount. ONU did.
...
it also isn't really fair to penalize a team for a loss they don't even have yet.

You know who else ONU played?  John Carroll.  Who won that game again? 

ONU's loss to Mount Union is pretty much irrelevant in the discussion of "Who is better, ONU vs. JCU?" when they actually played each other, and Ohio Northern won, on the road.

Seriously, this is like arguing that Charles Barkley is taller than LeBron James, even though they stood next to each other and LeBron was taller, because the next day LeBron stood next to Shaq and lost the height battle.

*Editing to add: you do realize the logical inconsistencies in your argument, right?  You want to rank 1-loss JCU > 2-loss ONU while disregarding the quality-of-opponent-who-gave-said-losses, but then you won't extend that favor to ranking 0-loss Denison > 1-loss JCU because Denison hasn't played anyone who passes your test.  It can't be both ways.  Either the quality of opponents doesn't matter, or it does.

[emma17]

JCU didn't play mount. ONU did.
...
it also isn't really fair to penalize a team for a loss they don't even have yet.

You know who else ONU played?  John Carroll.  Who won that game again? 

ONU's loss to Mount Union is pretty much irrelevant in the discussion of "Who is better, ONU vs. JCU?" when they actually played each other, and Ohio Northern won, on the road.

Seriously, this is like arguing that Charles Barkley is taller than LeBron James, even though they stood next to each other and LeBron was taller, because the next day LeBron stood next to Shaq and lost the height battle.

Ex, this analogy of yours is A #1.  Well done.

[jknezek]

ONU's loss to Mount Union is pretty much irrelevant in the discussion of "Who is better, ONU vs. JCU?" when they actually played each other, and Ohio Northern won, on the road.

Seriously, this is like arguing that Charles Barkley is taller than LeBron James, even though they stood next to each other and LeBron was taller, because the next day LeBron stood next to Shaq and lost the height battle.

LOL. +K. That's fabulous