FB: Region 4 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

I think Albion would beat Platteville 73-69. 

57-52 in a basketball game though. 

[Li'l Giant]

This seems inconsistent to me. You say A/D/O would all lose to Wesley and Platteville. But then you claim to have no idea if the Pile of Suck from the South would do the same? While "none of the games that P.O.S.S. has *won* tells you that, 2 of the games they lost definitely tell you something! If you want to tow the line and say P.O.S.S. doesn't get credit for a loss and so you don't want to rank them that's one thing, but to say Wesley and Platteville would "Surely" beat Albion/Depauw/Olivet but you have no idea about P.O.S.S., when there are literally 2 plays separating those teams, seems incompatible.

To be clear, I am not treating a 4-2 team like D3 royalty here, I am much more focused on the notion that Wesley and Platteville would "surely" beat Albion/Depauw/Olivet. That's not a jump you can make in your line of reasoning.

First, I don't get the P.O.S.S. thing. I've never claimed they suck. I have them at the 8th best team in a region of how many teams?

Second, I don't see how it is an inconsistent leap to say I think A/DP/O would lose to Wesley and Platteville. If they're that easy to beat then how is it such a quality loss for NCC? I'm *assuming* that for the sake of giving NCC credit for the loss. Otherwise, I'm giving them no credit for the loss. We have all (I think) agreed that not all losses are equal. Lots of teams would lose to Wesley and Platteville.

But if we're playing hypothetical games then there has to be some assumption. No, I don't *know* that A/D/O would lose those 2 games. I'm willing to assume that for purposes of saying that if they swapped schedules I think they'd all be the same record. And I'm willing to give A/D/O the edge because they haven't lost any games.

I'm not sure that's a jump. But if it is, how's that any more of a jump to say that you believe NCC would beat A/D/O head to head so let's discount the losses?

It's not. I think we all have reasonable arguments for how we rank NCC relative to these 3 teams.

[Mr. Ypsi]

LG, USee wasn't suggesting that YOU think NCC sucks.  This is "Bell Week" and P.O.S.S is a phrase HE uses for NCC this week (since he is allergic to actually voicing their name)!

[Mugsy]

P.O.S.S... just spit H20 all over my monitor.

[USee]

This seems inconsistent to me. You say A/D/O would all lose to Wesley and Platteville. But then you claim to have no idea if the Pile of Suck from the South would do the same? While "none of the games that P.O.S.S. has *won* tells you that, 2 of the games they lost definitely tell you something! If you want to tow the line and say P.O.S.S. doesn't get credit for a loss and so you don't want to rank them that's one thing, but to say Wesley and Platteville would "Surely" beat Albion/Depauw/Olivet but you have no idea about P.O.S.S., when there are literally 2 plays separating those teams, seems incompatible.

To be clear, I am not treating a 4-2 team like D3 royalty here, I am much more focused on the notion that Wesley and Platteville would "surely" beat Albion/Depauw/Olivet. That's not a jump you can make in your line of reasoning.

I'm not sure that's a jump. But if it is, how's that any more of a jump to say that you believe NCC would beat A/D/O head to head so let's discount the losses?

It's not. I think we all have reasonable arguments for how we rank NCC relative to these 3 teams.

I have no problem with your ranking P.O.S.S. 8th and I have them 4th with A/D/O some version of 8th/7th/6th. I thought you leaving them off your ballot altogether a few weeks back was interesting but you have tempered your thinking. I was just reacting to the notion that Wesley/UWP would "surely" beat A/D/O but P.O.S.S. was not "sure". I don't think both those things can be true based on what we know. For the record, I don't know that A/D/O would fare any better or worse against Wesley/UWP, but my rankings tell you who I think is the better team right now.

[Mr. Ypsi]

My claim that NCC would "tear limb-from-limb" if playing DePauw, Olivet, or Albion was obviously over-the-top hyperbole, and I withdraw it.  But I DO still think NCC would be a heavy favorite against any of them.  I just can't get my head around any of them very nearly beating Platteville or Wesley.  I could be wrong about that (and odds are we will never know), but that is how I see it and why I reacted so vociferously.  Now I'll be rooting for Wheaton to fairly decisively best P.O.S.S (say 'thank you', USee ) to justify my season-long placement of Wheaton above Wesley on my national fan ballot.

[USee]

LG, USee wasn't suggesting that YOU think NCC sucks.  This is "Bell Week" and P.O.S.S is a phrase HE uses for NCC this week (since he is allergic to actually voicing their name)!

That is partly true. It is certainly seasonal but the origination is from a discussion we have been having that included Wally and I came around to his side of things. Namely that if the close losses to Wesley/UWP really mean something, we will see it over the course of the season. They were losses, showing real weakness, and should be counted as such. I agree with that and my penchant for extremes made me include the new moniker in place of their name until they earn their real name back with some quality wins.

[wally_wabash]

I have NCC at 6, just ahead of Olivet and Albion, but I think LG's reasoning is sound.  Void of any good wins, North Central hasn't really distinguished themselves from those two MIAA teams or DePauw (depending on what you think of DePauw's result against Wittenberg).  If the idea is the A/O/D wouldn't have lost by the same margins to Wesley or Platteville, I think that's just a guess and we're giving NCC credit for past success that A/O/D don't have.  Which is fine if that's how a voter wants to do it. 

I think if I have a disagreement with poll positions it's NCC ranked ahead of IWU.  In our final tally, they are tied, but in my mind IWU has a quality win (Franklin on the road) that NCC does not.  NCC can do one better on Saturday, which I'm sure would move them ahead of IWU in our poll (if not on my personal ballot). 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I have NCC at 6, just ahead of Olivet and Albion, but I think LG's reasoning is sound.  Void of any good wins, North Central hasn't really distinguished themselves from those two MIAA teams or DePauw (depending on what you think of DePauw's result against Wittenberg).  If the idea is the A/O/D wouldn't have lost by the same margins to Wesley or Platteville, I think that's just a guess and we're giving NCC credit for past success that A/O/D don't have.  Which is fine if that's how a voter wants to do it. 

I think if I have a disagreement with poll positions it's NCC ranked ahead of IWU.  In our final tally, they are tied, but in my mind IWU has a quality win (Franklin on the road) that NCC does not.  NCC can do one better on Saturday, which I'm sure would move them ahead of IWU in our poll (if not on my personal ballot).

IWU also has a quality win that Wheaton does not... their best win so far is 3-3 Adrian. But I haven't seen anyone complaining about Wheaton being ahead of IWU or Wabash who has wins over Hampden-Sydney and Witt.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I understand the reasoning of the majority who think past success should be ignored, and only this year factored in.  To a degree I agree with the old cliche: "It's the Jimmy's and Joe's, not the X's and Os".  Athlete turnover IS fairly rapid, and some teams quickly return to at least relative mediocrity after a 'miracle class' graduates (see, Trine after Watt and Monmouth after Tanney).  But I think this view undervalues coaching, trainers, training facilities, and institutional support, all of which are (usually) only very slow to change.  I DO count past success as a (fairly) significant factor, because history tells me that 'history DOES repeat itself' (not always, and not to the exclusion of other perhaps more important factors, but that usually it does).  That is why, despite no significant wins, but a couple of very impressively close losses, I still have NCC above IWU (and above DePauw, Albion, and Olivet); in the recent past they have significantly out-performed any of the others.

I do count only the recent past.  Albion is the only one of the group with a Stagg Bowl win, but those players are now halfway between college and Medicare eligibility (and it is doubtful they have any of the same coaches, trainers, etc., still around either)!

[wally_wabash]

I have NCC at 6, just ahead of Olivet and Albion, but I think LG's reasoning is sound.  Void of any good wins, North Central hasn't really distinguished themselves from those two MIAA teams or DePauw (depending on what you think of DePauw's result against Wittenberg).  If the idea is the A/O/D wouldn't have lost by the same margins to Wesley or Platteville, I think that's just a guess and we're giving NCC credit for past success that A/O/D don't have.  Which is fine if that's how a voter wants to do it. 

I think if I have a disagreement with poll positions it's NCC ranked ahead of IWU.  In our final tally, they are tied, but in my mind IWU has a quality win (Franklin on the road) that NCC does not.  NCC can do one better on Saturday, which I'm sure would move them ahead of IWU in our poll (if not on my personal ballot).

IWU also has a quality win that Wheaton does not... their best win so far is 3-3 Adrian. But I haven't seen anyone complaining about Wheaton being ahead of IWU or Wabash who has wins over Hampden-Sydney and Witt.

These are great points.  We have seen the Wheaton/Wabash split for the #2 spot tighten up (Wheaton leads just 5-3 there now).  I moved Wabash ahead of Wheaton on my ballot after that delicious lambasting of Wittenberg.  So why Wheaton still ahead of IWU?  I think you could definitely justify reversing that ranking.  For me, I really liked what Wheaton returned for 2015, they've been solid despite some adversity (yes, against not-so-great competition).  IWU does have the Franklin result which is very nice.  They also have that Houdini job against Carthage that can make you think twice about a big move up. 

While we're being honest here, my personal confidence in Wheaton has been shaken a bit due to the uncertain availability of Peltz (and others).  They aren't the same squad without Peltz and all bets are off on Saturday if he can't go.  And Wheaton doesn't want to lose this game.  For obvious rivalry reasons, but, and we'll deal with this more next week if the Thunder do lose, but there are very real scenarios in play that might make Wheaton's path to the 32 difficult. 

[USee]

I moved Wabash ahead of Wheaton for the reasons Wally cited.  I keep them ahead of IWU because they have 19 returning starters from a 11-1 team and that's better than IWU.  I can't fault them, just like I can't fault UMU for the timing of their schedule. 

These three CCIW teams all return 18+ starters so factoring in their results against each other last yea is not unreasonable in my view.  We will know more soon enough.

Incidentally, my ranking of Olivet (they have been in my top 10 since day one) is largely based off the return of 20 starters from their team a year ago.  I said in week two the MIAA would come down to the Albion v Olivet game and that is on track.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I just can't get my head around any of them very nearly beating Platteville or Wesley.

Can't get your head around Albion nearly beating Platteville?  Here, I'll help.

Albion beat UW-Stevens Point 65-52.
UW-Platteville beat UW-Stevens Point 30-27 in overtime.

Why is it still so hard to believe that Albion could play with UW-Platteville?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I just can't get my head around any of them very nearly beating Platteville or Wesley.

Can't get your head around Albion nearly beating Platteville?  Here, I'll help.

Albion beat UW-Stevens Point 65-52.
UW-Platteville beat UW-Stevens Point 30-27 in overtime.

Why is it still so hard to believe that Albion could play with UW-Platteville?

Wilmington beat Bluffton 14-10
Baldwin-Wallace lost to Bluffton 38-26
So Wilmington is 16 points better than BW right?

Baldwin-Wallace beat Wilmington 21-14
A full 23 points off the previous results.

[wally_wabash]

I think the main point of the Albion/Stevens Point/Platteville/NCC train is that common opponent results suggest that Albion may not be the heavy underdog in the hypothetical Albion/NCC game.  Not that Albion is obviously better than NCC.  The thing that happens here is that it is easy to brush the Albion/UWSP result away as not being representative because Albion doesn't have cred.  That result isn't repeatable and they just got one over on the Pointers because sports.  On the NCC side of the coin, we take those games with Platteville and Wesley and assume they're representative or even semi-fluky against NCC- that NCC wins those games more often than they wouldn't. 

Maybe Albion couldn't repeat that result against Stevens Point.  I don't know.  I also don't know if North Central could repeat what they did against Wesley or Platteville.  Maybe NCC was lucky to even be in those games?  Who knows.  But it isn't unreasonable to the take the results we do have, take them as representative, and come to a conclusion that Albion might be in the same neighborhood as North Central in 2015.  That's not crazy, right?