FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

I think the main point of the Albion/Stevens Point/Platteville/NCC train is that common opponent results suggest that Albion may not be the heavy underdog in the hypothetical Albion/NCC game.  Not that Albion is obviously better than NCC.  The thing that happens here is that it is easy to brush the Albion/UWSP result away as not being representative because Albion doesn't have cred.  That result isn't repeatable and they just got one over on the Pointers because sports.  On the NCC side of the coin, we take those games with Platteville and Wesley and assume they're representative or even semi-fluky against NCC- that NCC wins those games more often than they wouldn't. 

Maybe Albion couldn't repeat that result against Stevens Point.  I don't know.  I also don't know if North Central could repeat what they did against Wesley or Platteville.  Maybe NCC was lucky to even be in those games?  Who knows.  But it isn't unreasonable to the take the results we do have, take them as representative, and come to a conclusion that Albion might be in the same neighborhood as North Central in 2015.  That's not crazy, right?

I totally buy the Albion/Platteville scenario.  I don't buy the Albion/Wesley scenario.  I do buy the NCC beats one or the other in a replay scenario.  I don't buy the DePauw, Albion, Olivet beats NCC scenario.  I'm all in for the IWU beats NCC scenario!   I think I'm all in for scenarios, and basically just all in.  Good night, Gracie.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think the main point of the Albion/Stevens Point/Platteville/NCC train is that common opponent results suggest that Albion may not be the heavy underdog in the hypothetical Albion/NCC game.  Not that Albion is obviously better than NCC.  The thing that happens here is that it is easy to brush the Albion/UWSP result away as not being representative because Albion doesn't have cred.  That result isn't repeatable and they just got one over on the Pointers because sports.  On the NCC side of the coin, we take those games with Platteville and Wesley and assume they're representative or even semi-fluky against NCC- that NCC wins those games more often than they wouldn't. 

Maybe Albion couldn't repeat that result against Stevens Point.  I don't know.  I also don't know if North Central could repeat what they did against Wesley or Platteville.  Maybe NCC was lucky to even be in those games?  Who knows.  But it isn't unreasonable to the take the results we do have, take them as representative, and come to a conclusion that Albion might be in the same neighborhood as North Central in 2015.  That's not crazy, right?

Exactly.

FCGG, I totally understand your point.  You can always find results that don't jibe.  Football is a game of matchups.  Results definitely aren't linear and it's not always A > B and B > C so A > C. 

That said, wally perfectly encapsulated what I was trying to get at here.  Ypsi has several times expressed varying degrees of disbelief at the notion that Albion could be the equal of North Central, they of the close loss to UWP and Wesley.  He even said he just "can't wrap his brain around Albion nearly beating Platteville" (direct quote).

However, looking at one of the only shared data points that they have, that doesn't seem very reasonable.  Albion beat Stevens Point. Stevens Point took Platteville to overtime.  It seems pretty reasonable to infer that Albion could at least compete with Platteville, maybe even beat them.  But somehow, this gets twisted to the point that North Central gets bonus points for scheduling tough and losing a close one to UWP, while after beating UWSP, Albion gets told "Yeah, I still don't think you can compete with Platteville, sorry.  I know the team you did beat took them to overtime, but, well, I just don't buy it.  Better luck next year!"

[wabndy]

This discussion compels me to bring out one of my favorite websites.  For anyone who doesn't believe it, here is the "proof" that Allegheny is better than Ohio State.

[mitchp]

@wabndy, thanks for posting.  I added a few new things to the site this year, but nothing makes me prouder than the new "Six Degrees of Kenyon Bacone" pages:

http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/default.asp?sport=CFB&winner=Kenyon&loser=Bacone&year=2013&method=2

[Gregory Sager]

I totally buy the Albion/Platteville scenario.  I don't buy the Albion/Wesley scenario.  I do buy the NCC beats one or the other in a replay scenario.  I don't buy the DePauw, Albion, Olivet beats NCC scenario.

Chuck, are you by any chance doing online trading to supplement your retirement income?

[Mr. Ypsi]

I totally buy the Albion/Platteville scenario.  I don't buy the Albion/Wesley scenario.  I do buy the NCC beats one or the other in a replay scenario.  I don't buy the DePauw, Albion, Olivet beats NCC scenario.

Chuck, are you by any chance doing online trading to supplement your retirement income?

Only figuratively.  I leave actual online trading to Mrs. Y.

[Gregory Sager]

Tell her that when North Central gets to $1.75 per share, sell.

[emma17]

I think the main point of the Albion/Stevens Point/Platteville/NCC train is that common opponent results suggest that Albion may not be the heavy underdog in the hypothetical Albion/NCC game.  Not that Albion is obviously better than NCC.  The thing that happens here is that it is easy to brush the Albion/UWSP result away as not being representative because Albion doesn't have cred.  That result isn't repeatable and they just got one over on the Pointers because sports.  On the NCC side of the coin, we take those games with Platteville and Wesley and assume they're representative or even semi-fluky against NCC- that NCC wins those games more often than they wouldn't. 

Maybe Albion couldn't repeat that result against Stevens Point.  I don't know.  I also don't know if North Central could repeat what they did against Wesley or Platteville.  Maybe NCC was lucky to even be in those games?  Who knows.  But it isn't unreasonable to the take the results we do have, take them as representative, and come to a conclusion that Albion might be in the same neighborhood as North Central in 2015.  That's not crazy, right?

Exactly.

FCGG, I totally understand your point.  You can always find results that don't jibe.  Football is a game of matchups.  Results definitely aren't linear and it's not always A > B and B > C so A > C. 

That said, wally perfectly encapsulated what I was trying to get at here.  Ypsi has several times expressed varying degrees of disbelief at the notion that Albion could be the equal of North Central, they of the close loss to UWP and Wesley.  He even said he just "can't wrap his brain around Albion nearly beating Platteville" (direct quote).

However, looking at one of the only shared data points that they have, that doesn't seem very reasonable.  Albion beat Stevens Point. Stevens Point took Platteville to overtime.  It seems pretty reasonable to infer that Albion could at least compete with Platteville, maybe even beat them.  But somehow, this gets twisted to the point that North Central gets bonus points for scheduling tough and losing a close one to UWP, while after beating UWSP, Albion gets told "Yeah, I still don't think you can compete with Platteville, sorry.  I know the team you did beat took them to overtime, but, well, I just don't buy it.  Better luck next year!"

This discussion comes back to those that feel recent history should be included in the review of the present and those that feel the present stands on its own.  Pretty clear that minds aren't going to be changed.
I look at the MIAA leader and see that they actually have been "torn from limb to limb" in the first round of the playoffs the last four consecutive years.  I ask myself, how do I justify giving them the benefit of the doubt if they face a team like NCC, who, despite losing several big games over the years, has been extremely competitive in every game they've played against the top teams in the nation?  The same teams that tore the MIAA leaders limb from limb.  If I were a betting man, the answer would be simple.  The expert odds makers come on sports radio and give predictions based upon historical performance- how this team is 9-2 against the spread over the last X number of years blah, blah, blah.  They surely see value in historic performance.   

That said, I understand your point of view.  How can you penalize 2015 Albion for the poor performances of the MIAA? 

For me -You earn the benefit of the doubt by proving yourself over time.  Hopefully the MIAA will prove themselves come playoff time.       

[BashDad]

@wabndy, thanks for posting.  I added a few new things to the site this year, but nothing makes me prouder than the new "Six Degrees of Kenyon Bacone" pages:

http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/default.asp?sport=CFB&winner=Kenyon&loser=Bacone&year=2013&method=2

Favorite part is that not even Ohio State can be proven better than UMU.

[Dr. Acula]

Interesting happenings early on in Terre Haute. 

[Dr. Acula]

In addition to RHIT leading Franklin 21-0 another score of note is OWU 17-16 over DePauw at half.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Well this week will be fun trying to figure out. North Central loses again... Rose-Hulman, DePauw, and Albion all with their first losses.

[wally_wabash]

Well this week will be fun trying to figure out. North Central loses again... Rose-Hulman, DePauw, and Albion all with their first losses.

Well, if you don't count that one of Wheaton's touchdowns was on a hail mary at the end of the first half and Dylan Warden throwng a buh-rutal interception in the end zone in the fourth quarter, North Central probably would have won.  So I'm thinking they should move up. 

[Wabash1]

Well this week will be fun trying to figure out. North Central loses again... Rose-Hulman, DePauw, and Albion all with their first losses.

Well, if you don't count that one of Wheaton's touchdowns was on a hail mary at the end of the first half and Dylan Warden throwng a buh-rutal interception in the end zone in the fourth quarter, North Central probably would have won.  So I'm thinking they should move up.

You're finally getting it Wally

[USee]

Wally,

I know you are being sarcastic and it is timely.  It was not a Hail Mary at the end of the half.  It was a 43 yd pass play and the kid made an incredible effort to catch it and then muscle his way to the end zone.