FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Dr. Acula]

Here's a what if. What if this week's top 10 were a conference, full round robin schedule. Does Mount Union go undefeated?  9 straight weeks against those 9 teams- would they get all 9?

I say yes, and maybe only challenged once or twice in the process.

My knee jerk is to agree with this, but I am bracing for a 2013 type season this year.  NCC would have beat Mount that year in Alliance if not for Burke willing them to the win.  Burke isn't around this year.  In fact, it may be a freshman starting at QB this year.  That being said, I don't know how the current NCC stacks up to Stanek et al so maybe neither team is as good as 2013. 

[USee]

Again, I chose a less-informed, less opinionated route for my rankings this week. I don't think I can fairly say I don't know anything about a win over Robert Morris and then say I definitely know Albion and Franklin are good. I also don't think predicting the quality of a non conference win in region into the future is solid logic for moving Franklin up. If Thomas More goes 5-5 would we hold to that thinking? If Albion finishes 5th in the MIAA our thoughts might change. But Albion could win this week and I will have much more information to work with. Until then, I am avoiding the "knee jerk shuffle" in the first couple of weeks. Once teams get 2-3 games under their belt I will make some stronger revisions.

Said another way, my original thesis on each of these teams is intact, but under attack.

[wally_wabash]

That's all fair, USee.  I think volatility is ok early on.  If Albion and TMC go in the tank from this point on, certainly you view those week 1 results differently.  If TMC winds up losing a bunch of games, my thinking on this probably shifts from "that's the best non-league result in the region this year" to "why on Earth did FC need a giant comeback to beat that team".  But I don't think Thomas More is such an unknown quantity that and of that seems likely.  TMC is good.  I'm comfortable saying that. 

Re: RMU vs. Franklin/Albion...I think I can make sound judgements on the latter pair.  They're familiar entities.  Robert Morris not so much.  The benchmarks I have for NAIA schools are pretty slim.  Morningside is one of the best NAIA teams and they played a pretty tight game with Whitewater last year so the tippy top of NAIA is pretty good.  But there are all but 86 NAIA football teams.  So the gradient from #1-ORV is pretty steep.  If RMU is ORV31 out of a total of 86 teams in the division, on a percentile basis that puts them in the 80s of D3.  So we're talking about Trine/Coe/Montclair St./Carthage level teams.  But I don't know how well that NAIA-to-D3 conversion works.  Maybe RMU is a little better than where that projection puts them.  Maybe not.  I have no clue.  I know they're not Morningside or Marian and if they aren't that, then I don't know what I'm supposed to do with North Central 35, RMU 21.  I treated that result as not good, not bad...just expected.  This week's opponent is basically the same rankings wise for NCC, so we aren't going to learn much about the Cardinals this week either. 

[USee]

I have no problem with that logic. I am also pointing out the information imbalance. You are a lot more comfortable with TMC and Franklin, you saw TMC last year live and are regularly looking at Franklin. I saw NCC live last year and I know exactly what they have back so I am probably more comfortable with them (and Carthage) as a team than most voters so the Robbie Morris result was in the range for my expectation. I have seen Wabash and I am very familiar with their personnel. I don't know if Albion is any good or not but my concerns with the new coaching staff at Wabash coming in to the season are not abating and giving up 300 yds in a half to almost anyone in D3, let alone an MIAA team (that may turn out to be vastly under rated) concerns me. I don't see the BJ hammer aggressiveness on D. We all know our own teams better than most other teams.  Look, we all may be wrong and some of us certainly will be. Nothing wrong with differing approaches. What's clear from the results and the discussions on here is I have some more work to do.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

That's all fair, USee.  I think volatility is ok early on.  If Albion and TMC go in the tank from this point on, certainly you view those week 1 results differently.  If TMC winds up losing a bunch of games, my thinking on this probably shifts from "that's the best non-league result in the region this year" to "why on Earth did FC need a giant comeback to beat that team".  But I don't think Thomas More is such an unknown quantity that and of that seems likely.  TMC is good.  I'm comfortable saying that. 

Re: RMU vs. Franklin/Albion...I think I can make sound judgements on the latter pair.  They're familiar entities.  Robert Morris not so much.  The benchmarks I have for NAIA schools are pretty slim.  Morningside is one of the best NAIA teams and they played a pretty tight game with Whitewater last year so the tippy top of NAIA is pretty good.  But there are all but 86 NAIA football teams.  So the gradient from #1-ORV is pretty steep.  If RMU is ORV31 out of a total of 86 teams in the division, on a percentile basis that puts them in the 80s of D3.  So we're talking about Trine/Coe/Montclair St./Carthage level teams.  But I don't know how well that NAIA-to-D3 conversion works.  Maybe RMU is a little better than where that projection puts them.  Maybe not.  I have no clue.  I know they're not Morningside or Marian and if they aren't that, then I don't know what I'm supposed to do with North Central 35, RMU 21.  I treated that result as not good, not bad...just expected.  This week's opponent is basically the same rankings wise for NCC, so we aren't going to learn much about the Cardinals this week either.

hopefully folks wont punish FC for playing Butler and losing (Butler wasn't embarrassed last week at Indiana State).  Like always, FC could take an easier route.  This could be our year.  We have beaten Butler in the past.  Butler off the schedule starting next season  Benedictine will be our second game after a trip to TM.  TM may end up being an annual affair.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

Here's a what if. What if this week's top 10 were a conference, full round robin schedule. Does Mount Union go undefeated?  9 straight weeks against those 9 teams- would they get all 9?

I say yes, and maybe only challenged once or twice in the process.

My knee jerk is to agree with this, but I am bracing for a 2013 type season this year.  NCC would have beat Mount that year in Alliance if not for Burke willing them to the win.  Burke isn't around this year.  In fact, it may be a freshman starting at QB this year.  That being said, I don't know how the current NCC stacks up to Stanek et al so maybe neither team is as good as 2013.

Franklin had Mount on the run late in 2013 in the opener in Alliance.  30-27 final.

[wally_wabash]

hopefully folks wont punish FC for playing Butler and losing (Butler wasn't embarrassed last week at Indiana State).  Like always, FC could take an easier route.  This could be our year.  We have beaten Butler in the past.  Butler off the schedule starting next season  Benedictine will be our second game after a trip to TM.  TM may end up being an annual affair.

I won't. Franklin can lose that game by 90 and I don't really care.  I think Franklin can only improve their position on my ballot with this game.  No penalty for losing.  I'm also really glad that this game is going away. 

I have no problem with that logic. I am also pointing out the information imbalance. You are a lot more comfortable with TMC and Franklin, you saw TMC last year live and are regularly looking at Franklin. I saw NCC live last year and I know exactly what they have back so I am probably more comfortable with them (and Carthage) as a team than most voters so the Robbie Morris result was in the range for my expectation. I have seen Wabash and I am very familiar with their personnel. I don't know if Albion is any good or not but my concerns with the new coaching staff at Wabash coming in to the season are not abating and giving up 300 yds in a half to almost anyone in D3, let alone an MIAA team (that may turn out to be vastly under rated) concerns me. I don't see the BJ hammer aggressiveness on D. We all know our own teams better than most other teams.  Look, we all may be wrong and some of us certainly will be. Nothing wrong with differing approaches. What's clear from the results and the discussions on here is I have some more work to do.

I think people get too caught up in that 34 points against here.  Wabash allowed fewer yards against 18 more plays last week than they did against Albion in the tournament last season.  Also, pretty ideal conditions for offensive football as opposed to the mess they tried to operate in last November.  The biggest thing missing from the defense this time around?  Five turnovers forced last year, zero this time around.  Three of those five were INTs thrown by Albion in their last three possessions when they were forced to chase.  On Saturday, Wabash forced a fumble that bounced right to an Albion receiver running to the end zone.  It's the ultimate disguise...not only does Wabash not get credit for a turnover, but they give up a score on the loose ball situation.  Just all kinds of bad luck there.  If you can let yourself not get bogged by 34 points against, Wabash's defense may have actually been better Saturday than they were last November against this team.  It also helps if we don't disqualify a team from being good because they play in the MIAA.  Albion has been a nightmare to defend for a while now...in 2015 the Brits were 2nd in total offense, 6th in scoring...2014 5th in total offense, 9th in scoring offense.  They're tough to deal with. 

[Dr. Acula]

Here's a what if. What if this week's top 10 were a conference, full round robin schedule. Does Mount Union go undefeated?  9 straight weeks against those 9 teams- would they get all 9?

I say yes, and maybe only challenged once or twice in the process.

My knee jerk is to agree with this, but I am bracing for a 2013 type season this year.  NCC would have beat Mount that year in Alliance if not for Burke willing them to the win.  Burke isn't around this year.  In fact, it may be a freshman starting at QB this year.  That being said, I don't know how the current NCC stacks up to Stanek et al so maybe neither team is as good as 2013.

Franklin had Mount on the run late in 2013 in the opener in Alliance.  30-27 final.

Absolutely.  That 2013 Mount team in hindsight was a testament to how great Kevin Burke was.  That team had no business being 14-1 and playing in Salem.  I am probably crying wolf a little saying I'm bracing for a 2013 type season.  But they do replace a lot of starters this year.

[USee]

hopefully folks wont punish FC for playing Butler and losing (Butler wasn't embarrassed last week at Indiana State).  Like always, FC could take an easier route.  This could be our year.  We have beaten Butler in the past.  Butler off the schedule starting next season  Benedictine will be our second game after a trip to TM.  TM may end up being an annual affair.

I won't. Franklin can lose that game by 90 and I don't really care.  I think Franklin can only improve their position on my ballot with this game.  No penalty for losing.  I'm also really glad that this game is going away. 

I have no problem with that logic. I am also pointing out the information imbalance. You are a lot more comfortable with TMC and Franklin, you saw TMC last year live and are regularly looking at Franklin. I saw NCC live last year and I know exactly what they have back so I am probably more comfortable with them (and Carthage) as a team than most voters so the Robbie Morris result was in the range for my expectation. I have seen Wabash and I am very familiar with their personnel. I don't know if Albion is any good or not but my concerns with the new coaching staff at Wabash coming in to the season are not abating and giving up 300 yds in a half to almost anyone in D3, let alone an MIAA team (that may turn out to be vastly under rated) concerns me. I don't see the BJ hammer aggressiveness on D. We all know our own teams better than most other teams.  Look, we all may be wrong and some of us certainly will be. Nothing wrong with differing approaches. What's clear from the results and the discussions on here is I have some more work to do.

I think people get too caught up in that 34 points against here.  Wabash allowed fewer yards against 18 more plays last week than they did against Albion in the tournament last season.  Also, pretty ideal conditions for offensive football as opposed to the mess they tried to operate in last November.  The biggest thing missing from the defense this time around?  Five turnovers forced last year, zero this time around.  Three of those five were INTs thrown by Albion in their last three possessions when they were forced to chase.  On Saturday, Wabash forced a fumble that bounced right to an Albion receiver running to the end zone.  It's the ultimate disguise...not only does Wabash not get credit for a turnover, but they give up a score on the loose ball situation.  Just all kinds of bad luck there.  If you can let yourself not get bogged by 34 points against, Wabash's defense may have actually been better Saturday than they were last November against this team.  It also helps if we don't disqualify a team from being good because they play in the MIAA.  Albion has been a nightmare to defend for a while now...in 2015 the Brits were 2nd in total offense, 6th in scoring...2014 5th in total offense, 9th in scoring offense.  They're tough to deal with.

I don't care about the points. I care about 324 yds in a half. That's a lot of yards no matter who it is. And averaging it with the 14 yards in the first half makes it look ok for the game but it's still 324 yds in one half. It's not too big a data point or too small. I don't disqualify them from being good because they play in the MIAA. But the fact that the quality of play in that conference has been poor for a couple decades also doesn't mean I decide they are good because they almost beat a pre-season top 15 team. They may be a top 10 team and we will find out soon enough. I haven't made any judgements on Albion (or Wabash) but my antenna is definitely up.

[wally_wabash]

I don't care about the points. I care about 324 yds in a half. That's a lot of yards no matter who it is. And averaging it with the 14 yards in the first half makes it look ok for the game but it's still 324 yds in one half. It's not too big a data point or too small. I don't disqualify them from being good because they play in the MIAA. But the fact that the quality of play in that conference has been poor for a couple decades also doesn't mean I decide they are good because they almost beat a pre-season top 15 team. They may be a top 10 team and we will find out soon enough. I haven't made any judgements on Albion (or Wabash) but my antenna is definitely up.

It's also still 14 yards for a half.  For a team that has averaged over 500 yards per game each of the last two years and looks like they're plenty capable of doing it again.  Fourteen yards. This works both ways, right? 

[Dr. Acula]

If we're playing the "good half/bad half" thing I think I'd rather have the 324 yards be the first half and then after some sweet adjustments and a verbal tirade at halftime 14 yards in the 2nd half.  A wake up call if you will.

[USee]

I don't care about the points. I care about 324 yds in a half. That's a lot of yards no matter who it is. And averaging it with the 14 yards in the first half makes it look ok for the game but it's still 324 yds in one half. It's not too big a data point or too small. I don't disqualify them from being good because they play in the MIAA. But the fact that the quality of play in that conference has been poor for a couple decades also doesn't mean I decide they are good because they almost beat a pre-season top 15 team. They may be a top 10 team and we will find out soon enough. I haven't made any judgements on Albion (or Wabash) but my antenna is definitely up.

It's also still 14 yards for a half.  For a team that has averaged over 500 yards per game each of the last two years and looks like they're plenty capable of doing it again.  Fourteen yards. This works both ways, right?

Actually no, it doesn't. It is extremely rare to see a team go 14/324 for 2 halves. Dominant defenses don't give up 300 yards in a half to anyone, except maybe to the National Champion in the Stagg but they do throttle good and bad offenses to numbers that appear ridiculous. Albion may win the national title this year and I'll come back and eat crow. Last year Wabash had a dominant defense. The most they gave up was around 200 in a half to St Thomas and TMC, both first halves and then the dominant defense locks in. Albion had about 180 yds each half last year against Wabash. I don't know yet if they do this year but the 2nd half of Albion isn't a great sign. But it could be a sign that their defensive philosophy is changing, it could be some simple fix that Albion found and exploited, or it could have just been some bad halftime oranges, so I'll wait and see.

[sigma one]

For what it's worth to this discussion, both Wabash starting safeties were out in the second half; one of them is an all-region player and Wabash's leading tackler a year ago.  One of the corners was dinged and not playing at anywhere near 100%.  Most of the Albion yardage in the second half was through the air.  Just saying. 

[DPU3619]

Here's a what if. What if this week's top 10 were a conference, full round robin schedule. Does Mount Union go undefeated?  9 straight weeks against those 9 teams- would they get all 9?

I say yes, and maybe only challenged once or twice in the process.

Here's the other thing. The next best team in this scenario is probably, at best, 7-3 or 6-4.

[wally_wabash]

I don't care about the points. I care about 324 yds in a half. That's a lot of yards no matter who it is. And averaging it with the 14 yards in the first half makes it look ok for the game but it's still 324 yds in one half. It's not too big a data point or too small. I don't disqualify them from being good because they play in the MIAA. But the fact that the quality of play in that conference has been poor for a couple decades also doesn't mean I decide they are good because they almost beat a pre-season top 15 team. They may be a top 10 team and we will find out soon enough. I haven't made any judgements on Albion (or Wabash) but my antenna is definitely up.

It's also still 14 yards for a half.  For a team that has averaged over 500 yards per game each of the last two years and looks like they're plenty capable of doing it again.  Fourteen yards. This works both ways, right?

Actually no, it doesn't. It is extremely rare to see a team go 14/324 for 2 halves. Dominant defenses don't give up 300 yards in a half to anyone, except maybe to the National Champion in the Stagg but they do throttle good and bad offenses to numbers that appear ridiculous. Albion may win the national title this year and I'll come back and eat crow. Last year Wabash had a dominant defense. The most they gave up was around 200 in a half to St Thomas and TMC, both first halves and then the dominant defense locks in. Albion had about 180 yds each half last year against Wabash. I don't know yet if they do this year but the 2nd half of Albion isn't a great sign. But it could be a sign that their defensive philosophy is changing, it could be some simple fix that Albion found and exploited, or it could have just been some bad halftime oranges, so I'll wait and see.

That's a totally fair standard to hold them, and by association their opponents, to.  Because that's the threshold for what makes a good team.  Stagg Bowl or trash.  No in-betweens.   

Here's a what if. What if this week's top 10 were a conference, full round robin schedule. Does Mount Union go undefeated?  9 straight weeks against those 9 teams- would they get all 9?

I say yes, and maybe only challenged once or twice in the process.

Here's the other thing. The next best team in this scenario is probably, at best, 7-3 or 6-4.

No doubt.  Everybody else playing that same round robin gets chewed up by it.  I was just wondering out loud if Mount Union is so far ahead that they could run that 9-game gauntlet undefeated and if other people here thought that they would obviously do it.  We need one of the analytics guys to bounce that around and give us a 9-0 probability for Mount Union vs. those teams.