FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

It's Too bad for you  and Eash that games aren't counted by the quarter. IWU did win the third quarter against NCC so by your logic NCC only "dominated" one quarter more than Wheaton did. I'll take  26 straight terrible, non dominant wins including  the last two years over NCC (and 4 of the last 5). But I'm sure NCC is really, really good this year because they beat up on Millikin and IWU for 3 quarters.

You should also try to be consistent with this quarter by quarter dominance theme as Wabash was leading Wittenberg 14-0 after the 1st quarter yet Witt somehow managed to move UP in the polls 4 spots after slipping past the LG's, and Franklin, who is ranked ahead of NCC and Wheaton on some ballots lost the first half of their game against Bluffton 17-14 and was losing to Thomas More 32-14 in the 3rd quarter before pulling off their horrendous, non dominant wins over those teams.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

As for my ballot, I have the same 10 as last week, just flipped a couple of spots.  I moved flipped Wheaton and DePauw (not impressive stuff by DPU last week vs. Kenyon) and I flipped Wabash and Denison (was expecting an easier go of it from the Big Red against a struggling OWU team.  But yeah, like most of the rest of us, this week didn't have any results that would cause serious significant movement.

Awful lot of love for the Griz there Wally.

[wally_wabash]

As for my ballot, I have the same 10 as last week, just flipped a couple of spots.  I moved flipped Wheaton and DePauw (not impressive stuff by DPU last week vs. Kenyon) and I flipped Wabash and Denison (was expecting an easier go of it from the Big Red against a struggling OWU team.  But yeah, like most of the rest of us, this week didn't have any results that would cause serious significant movement.

Awful lot of love for the Griz there Wally.

Yessir.  Beating Thomas More, presumptive PAC champion now that they've gone through their top conference rivals, is the most impressive thing anybody in the region has done through five weeks.  They should get credit for that. 

[USee]

And they do. Franklin has a championship quality offense and their win over TMC is as good as any but it's kind of hard to overlook the 212th ranked pass defense out of 244 teams and giving up 30+ pts to anyone with a quarterback.

[wally_wabash]

And they do. Franklin has a championship quality offense and their win over TMC is as good as any but it's kind of hard to overlook the 212th ranked pass defense out of 244 teams and giving up 30+ pts to anyone with a quarterback.

That's not a good number, but they got the wins- one of which is a better result than any that anybody else has this season.  Those kinds of "terrible, non dominant" wins count the same as the rest, right? 

[Gregory Sager]

[USee]

And they do. Franklin has a championship quality offense and their win over TMC is as good as any but it's kind of hard to overlook the 212th ranked pass defense out of 244 teams and giving up 30+ pts to anyone with a quarterback.

That's not a good number, but they got the wins- one of which is a better result than any that anybody else has this season.  Those kinds of "terrible, non dominant" wins count the same as the rest, right?

For sure. I'm with you on Franklin, I just don't think one win over a top 20 team trumps 3 wins over top 40 teams. the hardest thing we do is make decisions with limited data. It's easy to rank the CCIW itself or the NCAC or the PAC. That's the challenge and the fun of having this excercise, what do each of us do with the limited data we have?

[wally_wabash]

And they do. Franklin has a championship quality offense and their win over TMC is as good as any but it's kind of hard to overlook the 212th ranked pass defense out of 244 teams and giving up 30+ pts to anyone with a quarterback.

That's not a good number, but they got the wins- one of which is a better result than any that anybody else has this season.  Those kinds of "terrible, non dominant" wins count the same as the rest, right?

For sure. I'm with you on Franklin, I just don't think one win over a top 20 team trumps 3 wins over top 40 teams. the hardest thing we do is make decisions with limited data. It's easy to rank the CCIW itself or the NCAC or the PAC. That's the challenge and the fun of having this excercise, what do each of us do with the limited data we have?

That's an interesting statement.  Who has three wins against the top 40 (which top 40)?  I think there's an argument that a single winning result against Thomas More is better than multiple wins against teams ranked between 26-40.  The way D3 is tiered, beating somebody in the top 15 can definitely be a larger accomplishment than beating multiple ORVs.  The difference in quality is huge between those two strata.  We see this on a more micro scale just in the top 10.  Beating UMHB or Mount Union is a bigger deal than beating a combo platter of Platteville and Hopkins. 

[USee]

Again, a single winning result against Thomas More is PART of the story. Their defense is horrific and that is also part of the story. We don't know yet how good or bad the win against Bluffton is just like we don't know if Denison is a good or bad result for the NCAC when it happens but we do our analysis on each team (some of us much more than others) and it leads us to believe things like "Bluffton may actually be decent" or "Denison has a chance to be good this year" etc. I also think Wit's win over Wabash is a better in region result than Franklins win over TMC. If you are ranked #2 in the North Region you are a top 10 team in the country most years. There is not enough evidence for me to support Franklin in that conversation. I don't think they are better than Mt Union, Wheaton, NCC, Wittenberg or Carthage. That's who I have ranked ahead of Franklin.

[wally_wabash]

I'm still looking for the team with three wins vs. somebody's top 40.  I need to ID those teams before I can have a firm opinion on how those three wins measure up to a win vs. Thomas More.  I don't know if I'm missing something or not looking at the right rankings or what. 

[USee]

I'm still looking for the team with three wins vs. somebody's top 40.  I need to ID those teams before I can have a firm opinion on how those three wins measure up to a win vs. Thomas More.  I don't know if I'm missing something or not looking at the right rankings or what.

Look no further than Franklins 215th ranked defense out of 244 teams. Or their 226th ranked run offense to go with their 4th ranked pass offense (total offense ranked 50th). I gave you the teams I have ranked ahead of Franklin. You seem like a smart guy, I'll let you figure out who beat who among them. I am sure you have a pretty firm opinion no matter what anyone else data says.

[Dr. Acula]

I'm still looking for the team with three wins vs. somebody's top 40.  I need to ID those teams before I can have a firm opinion on how those three wins measure up to a win vs. Thomas More.  I don't know if I'm missing something or not looking at the right rankings or what.

Look no further than Franklins 215th ranked defense out of 244 teams. Or their 226th ranked run offense to go with their 4th ranked pass offense (total offense ranked 50th). I gave you the teams I have ranked ahead of Franklin. You seem like a smart guy, I'll let you figure out who beat who among them. I am sure you have a pretty firm opinion no matter what anyone else data says.

I just looked at all of the schedules.  None of those teams have 3 wins over top 40 teams.  I'm now curious also.

[wally_wabash]

I'm still looking for the team with three wins vs. somebody's top 40.  I need to ID those teams before I can have a firm opinion on how those three wins measure up to a win vs. Thomas More.  I don't know if I'm missing something or not looking at the right rankings or what.

Look no further than Franklins 215th ranked defense out of 244 teams. Or their 226th ranked run offense to go with their 4th ranked pass offense (total offense ranked 50th). I gave you the teams I have ranked ahead of Franklin. You seem like a smart guy, I'll let you figure out who beat who among them. I am sure you have a pretty firm opinion no matter what anyone else data says.

I am a smart guy and that's why I'm bothered by the fact that I can't find any team in the North Region that has three wins against the top 40.  I've checked the usual suspects and I'm not seeing what you're seeing.  Without knowing what top 40 you're talking about, this is starting to feel like an arbitrary designation.  Or I'm missing something. 

So depending on what list you look at, Wheaton has two such wins (although IWU's ranking in some places seems pretty dubious...it's like they're getting credit for just having played Wheaton and NCC and the results of those games don't seem to matter much in some models).   Carthage is also all over the map...models don't know what to do with that Bethel result it seems.  Some models like Bethel a lot (likely a product of MIAC boost), some models have Bethel properly rated in the middle of the division. 

Anyway, please be specific.  I'm not seeing any one team that has more than one such win, let alone a collection of them, that provides enough schedule beef to trump Franklin's win over TMC. 

And certainly people can rank Franklin wherever they like.  It just seems odd to me that in one post you can basically say winning is winning no matter how meh it looks and then in another post penalize Franklin because the way they win isn't sexy enough. 

[USee]

To be clear, this is what I posted last week:

My Poll this week and some of the data I look at to back it up including any categories ranked in the Top 25 national statistics, opponents record, wins vs other notable opponents,etc:

1. Mt Union-opponents are 2-7,  50 ppg giving up 5.6. ranked in top 10 in country in many different statistical categories.  Based on competition we don't know if we have 2015 UMU or 2014 UMU. Either would put them a #1 in the region.

2. NCC (2-0)- opponents are 6-7,  37 ppg and giving up 14. Ranked in top 25 nationally in sacks-8th, turnover margin-2nd, red zone defense-13th, pass effeciency-16th. Best win is @IWU. Don't really know yet what we have with this team since their early NAIA opponents are difficult to judge.

3. Wheaton (4-0)-opponents are 9-5, 29 ppg giving up 8 8. Ranked in top 25 in total defense-12th, sacks-14th, TFL-11th, scoring D-14th, rush D-9th, PR-14th. 2 wins over region top 10 teams. v Benedictine and @Carthage. Dominant and consistent defense against teams that are scoring vs everybody else and hasn't lost a regular season game in almost 3 years. In a rut offensively but not because of talent (other than one of the better RB's in the country hasn't played)--young coaching.

4. Witt (3-0)- opponents are 5-4, 30 ppg giving up 7 ppg. rush D-22th, scoring D-8th, 3rd down D-23rd, TOP-24. One big win v Wabash. To the extent it's possible Witt has been under the radar. With a signature win over it's conference rival all eye will be on these guys the rest of the way.

5. Carthage (3-1) opponents are 4-7, 33 ppg giving up 22 ppg. Rush D-17th, 3rd down D-23. Best win is @Bethel and v Augie. Carthage can run the ball and stop the run. That's a recipe for beating a lot of teams. Their aggressive style makes teams uncomfortable. Style of play is very similar to Wabash in my view. They will have to continue to improve to keep this spot for me (their QB went down last week--which could be good or bad)

6. Franklin (3-1) opponents are 9-5, 36 ppg giving up 36. passing Off-8th, 1st downs-19th. Best win is v TMC and v Bluffton. Loss v D1AA Butler.  Franklin has a good win over a top 25 team but the thing that keeps them down for me is being ranked 213th out of 244 teams on defense.

7. Depauw (3-0) opponents are 3-8,  48 ppg vs 18 ppg. Total Off-13th, scoring Off-12th, Rush D-6th, sacks-3. No good wins. Depauw has been impressive vs bad opponents. They are 231st out of 244 teams in passing yds allowed. If they get a win vs Witt in a couple weeks they will move up significantly.

8. Wabash (2-1) opponents are 3-7, 38 ppg v 22 ppg.  Total Def-16, Rush Off-14, 3rd dwn def-23, TFL-4th. @Albion is best win. Wabash is 1 play away from being 1-2 and seems to be adjusting to new coaches and their styles. The defense is still very good but they need more from their passing game to balance their run game. They can run the ball and stop the run, similar to Carthage. Obviously their remaining test is Monon.

9. JCU (2-1) opponents are 5-4, 24 ppg v 19 ppg. TOP-21st. Best win v Baldwin Wallace. Not sure what to make of JCU but they appear to be the "Best of the rest" in the OAC.

10. Benedictine (2-1) opponents are 6-4, 25 ppg v 23 ppg. Pass off-21st, red zone defense -21st, fumbles recovered-19th. Best win v SNU and Adrian. Benedictine has a clear path to 9-1 now with only a home game v Lakeland standing in their way. Depending on how well Adrian, SNU and Wheaton end up there is an outside shot they could get a home game in the playoffs. Have to stay healthy as their lineup is thin.

IWU, Olivet, Bluffton, Denison, Lakeland: none of these have any signifcant wins yet nor do any of these rank in the Top 25 statistically in any meaningful categories.

There are multiple data points on every team that I use for my analysis. So I am not sure what you mean when you say:

It just seems odd to me that in one post you can basically say winning is winning no matter how meh it looks and then in another post penalize Franklin because the way they win isn't sexy enough. 

I never said that. I think it's pretty clear from the data I posted that I do a fair amount of work to understand the teams.

As far as Franklin, the sum of the data and my own opinion says Franklin isn't as good as the other teams in the region I have above them with the possible exception of Carthage who could move down. And, as I said, Witt's win over Wabash is a much better win than Franklin's over TMC in my view.

There is no published top 40, 50 or 60 that I know of so this would be my own rankings of teams which is driven by both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

[wally_wabash]

As far as Franklin, the sum of the data and my own opinion says Franklin isn't as good as the other teams in the region I have above them with the possible exception of Carthage who could move down. And, as I said, Witt's win over Wabash is a much better win than Franklin's over TMC in my view.

Flattering, but I'll disagree with this for the time being. 

There is no published top 40, 50 or 60 that I know of so this would be my own rankings of teams which is driven by both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

This answers my question.