FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

I am the middle ballot this week.  I flipped Witt and Wheaton at 3 and 4: I intended to wait 'til after Wheaton and NCC meet this weekend, but Wheaton 'barely' beating doormat Millikin (as I see it, aside from truly BAD K'zoo, Wheaton's only total domination all season is the second half of the game against IWU), while Witt beat DePauw, was too much. 

Benedictine beating Concordia (Wis) by only 2, and yielding 49 points to a team who had never broken 31 before (and that was against virtually countrywide doormat Finlandia) was too much - I dropped them for undefeated Denison.  I figured it was probably my last chance to recognize Denison for their great start, since I suspect Witt will double monkey-stomp them on Saturday.  

Barring unexpected outcomes, my #10 next week is likely to come from the trio of Bluffton, Olivet, and Trine (or Benedictine, if they beat Lakeland) - but we've had at least two straight weeks of (virtually) no upsets: it's time for some CHAOS!

[wally_wabash]

I moved Wittenberg up to 3 this week after their win over DePauw.  Those two results are now better than anything North Central or Wheaton have done to date which prompted a move.  But still not better than Franklin over Thomas More, so I'm holding out with Franklin in the 2 spot.  Saturday's Wheaton/NCC result is going to force some serious thought about spots 2-5 on my ballot. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

I am the middle ballot this week.  I flipped Witt and Wheaton at 3 and 4: I intended to wait 'til after Wheaton and NCC meet this weekend, but Wheaton 'barely' beating doormat Millikin (as I see it, aside from truly BAD K'zoo, Wheaton's only total domination all season is the second half of the game against IWU), while Witt beat DePauw, was too much. 

Benedictine beating Concordia (Wis) by only 2, and yielding 49 points to a team who had never broken 31 before (and that was against virtually countrywide doormat Finlandia) was too much - I dropped them for undefeated Denison.  I figured it was probably my last chance to recognize Denison for their great start, since I suspect Witt will double monkey-stomp them on Saturday.  

Barring unexpected outcomes, my #10 next week is likely to come from the trio of Bluffton, Olivet, and Trine (or Benedictine, if they beat Lakeland) - but we've had at least two straight weeks of (virtually) no upsets: it's time for some CHAOS!

Worst prediction of the year!!   Denison 24, Witt 21.  As a long time defender of good teams from bad conferences (basketball edition), I have GOT to remember that untested does not automatically translate to 'not good'.  My apologies to Denison.   Also apologies to UW-LaX who only lost to UWW by 10, when I would have expected 30+).

I thought the NCAC was essentially finished - just the Monon Bell game to decide the Pool C candidate.  Now it is indeed a four team race!

[Dr. Acula]

This was slightly tricky for me this week, but here's my reasoning:

I watched the Wheaton/NCC game and I thought both looked pretty darn good, especially on defense.  Because of that I didn't want to pummel Wheaton for the loss.  I dropped them from 3 to 5.  I would have only dropped them to 4, but I felt compelled to slot an undefeated Denison in at 4 on the strength of having the best win between the two.  I also watched the 2nd half of that game was very impressed with Denison's QB.  He's a player.

I maintained my order behind Wheaton with Witt, DPU and Wabash.  Witt has to be first in that group obviously thanks to H2H.

I was eyeing JCU jumping over Carthage this week, but that was because I was expecting a blowout win for JCU.  Didn't happen.  Trine and Olivet are in the equation for #10 as well.

[smedindy]

1-3 stayed the same for me. Four through 10 are now so close....

[Mr. Ypsi]

1-3 stayed the same for me. Four through 10 are now so close....

My 1-4 are pretty solid (until someone loses to someone lower), but 5-13 are really close.

Denison at #5 just FEELS way too high, but what can I do?  They beat Witt, who beat both Wabash and DePauw, so until they lose a game, they've gotta be ahead of any other NCAC team.

[wally_wabash]

We almost had consensus balloting this week.  Just two outlying votes.  Here's the Week 7 NRFP:



The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, USee, and wally wabash.

[ExTartanPlayer]

LOL.  Unless there's a goof in the presentation, someone's got some 'splaining to do here.

How can one justify ranking Wabash 5, Wittenberg 6, DePauw 9, Benedictine 10 and leaving Denison entirely unranked?

Was this just an oversight, or is a 6-0 start punctuated by a win over the same Wittenberg team (who already owns double-digit margin wins against Wabash and DePauw) they're ranking #5 honestly not enough?

I'd understand slow-playing a little and maybe bringing them in near the bottom of the poll if you're cautious, but keeping them entirely out of the poll while ranking three teams from their own conference (all of whom they're currently sitting ahead of in the standings) and ranking Benedictine (who just lost to Lakeland and whose best result is either a 19-point loss to Wheaton or a 35-28 win over not-getting-any-votes Adrian) in the #10 spot ahead of them seems...curious.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I was one of the outliers... surprised still no one else has Bluffton on their ballot. Just comparing Bluffton and DePauw, Bluffton has a 6 point loss at Franklin while DePauw has an 11 point loss at Witt. Slight edge Beavers there since everyone has Franklin ranked higher. DePauw's best win so far is MSJ. Bluffton has won at 5-1 Trine. The one point in DePauw's favor is that they beat MSJ by more than Bluffton did.

Honestly I don't think Denison is the #5 team in the region, but given the games we have so far I didn't have much option. On my top 25 ballot I have Denison, Witt, Wabash 19-21.

I will say that had North Central won a little more convincingly over Wheaton, I was absolutely prepared to move them ahead of Mount. They sit 4 and 5 on my top 25 ballot.

[USee]

I was one of the outliers... surprised still no one else has Bluffton on their ballot. Just comparing Bluffton and DePauw, Bluffton has a 6 point loss at Franklin while DePauw has an 11 point loss at Witt. Slight edge Beavers there since everyone has Franklin ranked higher. DePauw's best win so far is MSJ. Bluffton has won at 5-1 Trine. The one point in DePauw's favor is that they beat MSJ by more than Bluffton did.

Honestly I don't think Denison is the #5 team in the region, but given the games we have so far I didn't have much option. On my top 25 ballot I have Denison, Witt, Wabash 19-21.

I will say that had North Central won a little more convincingly over Wheaton, I was absolutely prepared to move them ahead of Mount. They sit 4 and 5 on my top 25 ballot.

I definitely considered moving NCC over Mt this week. NCC now has the best result in region of anyone.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was one of the outliers... surprised still no one else has Bluffton on their ballot. Just comparing Bluffton and DePauw, Bluffton has a 6 point loss at Franklin while DePauw has an 11 point loss at Witt. Slight edge Beavers there since everyone has Franklin ranked higher. DePauw's best win so far is MSJ. Bluffton has won at 5-1 Trine. The one point in DePauw's favor is that they beat MSJ by more than Bluffton did.

Honestly I don't think Denison is the #5 team in the region, but given the games we have so far I didn't have much option. On my top 25 ballot I have Denison, Witt, Wabash 19-21.

I will say that had North Central won a little more convincingly over Wheaton, I was absolutely prepared to move them ahead of Mount. They sit 4 and 5 on my top 25 ballot.

Bluffton is my #11 team.  (Olivet is #12.)  Benedictine is no longer even on my radar - I already dropped them last week when they gave up 49 to very bad Wis Lu; now they have lost to Lakeland.

[Mr. Ypsi]

LOL.  Unless there's a goof in the presentation, someone's got some 'splaining to do here.

How can one justify ranking Wabash 5, Wittenberg 6, DePauw 9, Benedictine 10 and leaving Denison entirely unranked?

Was this just an oversight, or is a 6-0 start punctuated by a win over the same Wittenberg team (who already owns double-digit margin wins against Wabash and DePauw) they're ranking #5 honestly not enough?

I'd understand slow-playing a little and maybe bringing them in near the bottom of the poll if you're cautious, but keeping them entirely out of the poll while ranking three teams from their own conference (all of whom they're currently sitting ahead of in the standings) and ranking Benedictine (who just lost to Lakeland and whose best result is either a 19-point loss to Wheaton or a 35-28 win over not-getting-any-votes Adrian) in the #10 spot ahead of them seems...curious.

That IS curious, but perhaps even worse is the voter who had Denison at 4, but DePauw 5, Wabash 7, and Witt (who beat them both) at 10!

BTW, I'm voter #3 this week.  You guys must be hacking me - aside from the flip-flop of DePauw and JCU at 9 and 10, the poll exactly reflects my ballot!

[New Tradition]

Very curious as to your reason for leaving NCC behind FC after the Wheaton win, Wally.  I don't mean that in a snarky way; I know you put a lot of thought into this and know more about D3 football than most (including me). 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Very curious as to your reason for leaving NCC behind FC after the Wheaton win, Wally.  I don't mean that in a snarky way; I know you put a lot of thought into this and know more about D3 football than most (including me).

I'm not wally, but here's the case I would build for Franklin:

1) that Thomas More win is easy for NRFP folks to downplay because TMC is not in the North, but that's a really good win, one of the best "non-league" results anyone is carrying around.  Franklin rang up 580 yards and 43 points on a TMC team lost at Wabash, in overtime, to make the final eight last year.  Thomas More has rolled off six straight wins since that game and is going to cruise to their league title (oddball PAC tiebreaker with CWRU aside).  The D3football.com Top 25 is not infallible, but it's worth mentioning that Wheaton is currently #12 and Thomas More is currently #13, so the voters view them in fairly similar esteem (although, somehow, they are still collectively ranking Franklin behind Thomas More...so maybe I shouldn't mention the d3fb top 25). 

Anyways, the point is, Franklin beating Thomas More stands up there with North Central's win over Wheaton if we're just comparing the "best result" for each team.

2) the close call with Bluffton, most years, would be a reason to doubt Franklin as a legit contender and arguably dock them a few spots.  But as this particular season goes on, that's looking less like a slip-up against a conference weakling and more like a potential RR win.  Bluffton's OOC results are fine (easy win over OAC bottom-feeder, shootout win over 5-1 Trine...if Trine runs the table and wins the MIAA, this keeps looking better and better) and they certainly stand a chance of running the table themselves.

North Central is pretty hard to shoot holes in, too.  The win over Wheaton was solid and they've not been threatend otherwise.  I don't think it's a slam-dunk for Franklin at #2 over NCC, but nor do I think it's an untenable position.

I cannot say the same about leaving Denison unranked, behind three NCAC teams including one it has beaten, and behind a 4-2 Benedictine team who just lost to Lakeland.

I know that part of the fun of the polls is that we all have our own opinions, and having some variation makes for some good discussion as to how one arrived at the particular ranking.  But some things are just...inexplicable.

[wally_wabash]

Very curious as to your reason for leaving NCC behind FC after the Wheaton win, Wally.  I don't mean that in a snarky way; I know you put a lot of thought into this and know more about D3 football than most (including me).

It's not overly complicated, really.  I think TMC > Wheaton, so Franklin beating TMC at home is a better result than NCC beating Wheaton at home.  Which is not to say that I think that's an obvious take, Wheaton and TMC are fairly close and part of me thinks that Wheaton should be better than TMC in 2016, but there's been, I don't know, something missing from Wheaton this year.  No problems with NCC 2 and Franklin lower with anybody who went that way.  I certainly evaluated these two pretty heavily this weekend before settling on a final order.  Franklin's a tough team to pin down.  They have the great result, then have a bunch of results against a bunch of not-so-good teams that don't move the needle, then they have the optics of Butler margin of defeat.   There's a lot of stuff on the surface of Franklin's profile that turns people off, which I get.