FB: Region 4 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

I'm the third column this week.

I confess to voting by 'crystal ball' this week in one regard - I put Wabash ahead of Witt (despite the h-t-h) in the 'certainty in my mind' that the LGs will have little trouble with Denison this week.  (If I'm wrong, Witt will go back ahead next week.)  I still have Franklin pretty high because I discount the loss to Butler (making them effectively 6-1, not 6-2), their win over Thomas More is better than ANY NR team except NCC over Wheaton, and their narrow loss to RHIT is not looking all that horrible.

Now, about that voter who has Wheaton SIXTH ...??!!  

I might comment on the #8 vote for Carthage also, but that will presumably be rendered moot when Carthage picks up their third loss against NCC on Saturday.  IF Denison also falls decisively to Wabash, I guess my Titans WILL make it back into the poll after they SMASH BYE (I've heard BYE is so down this year they couldn't beat a Pop Warner team).

Makes my leaving out DePauw a few weeks back a look minor. Speaking of which, who is surprised that DePauw did not get any love this week despite beating Denison?

I am the next to last column. Kinda had it hard to move teams up from the bottom half of the poll.

I think most people are just generally uncomfortable with Denison being pretty good, hence DePauw doesn't get credit.  I thought somebody might throw DePauw a vote this week, but it isn't totally surprising.  I'm definitely seeing a lot of people anchoring Denison and Wabash while they wait for this weekend's result which is totally understandable.  My ballot (first column I think) has Denison, Witt, Wabash 5/6/7.  I wasn't ready to push Wabash ahead of Witt and not ready to push Witt ahead of Denison just yet.  I'll probably move Wabash ahead of Witt if Wabash wins reasonably comfortable this week.  If it's close, I'll probably have a fembot head meltdown trying to figure it out.  One mitigating factor with Denison is the compromised status of Canaan Gebele- he played but was reportedly not 100%, which can be a factor.  Full strength Gebele might have altered that result...also might not have.  DePauw appears to have played one of their best games this past weekend, which they needed.  They needed it the week prior, tbh, but better late than never.  Hopefully that's the best game they put together this year.   

[thunderdog]

Week 9 NRFP:



The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, USee, and wally wabash.

Guys, let me start by saying I really enjoy following this thread. Love all the discussions between you guys, rationale for rankings etc...

However, I feel that IWU is getting a bit shafted here... 2 losses to the #2 & #3 ranked teams in the region. Yes, their loss to NCC was bad... well NCC is a very good team... they (NCC) could make a deep run in the playoffs. They outplayed WC for the first half, then lost the 2nd half in which WC played their best football of the year. My point is, they're "quality" losses. I don't think you can say the same for Franklin (loss to Rose-Hulman), Denison (loss to DePauw), and RHIT (losses to Illinois College & Mt St Joe). IWU's best win is at Carthage and yes, that win isn't as impressive as some of FC, Denison, or RHIT's wins, but they don't have any "bad" losses.

Just wanted to throw that out there...

[thunderdog]

Also,

I've become a big fan of Logan Hansen's Rankings. He has IWU @ #20, ahead of Wabash (#29), Witt (#30), Franklin (#46), RHIT (#66). Not that the Hansen Rankings are the end-all-be-all, but there's a strong case for IWU to be higher.


... WHAT IS HAPPENING TO ME???... WHY ALL THE LOVE FOR IWU???

[wally_wabash]

Guys, let me start by saying I really enjoy following this thread. Love all the discussions between you guys, rationale for rankings etc...

However, I feel that IWU is getting a bit shafted here... 2 losses to the #2 & #3 ranked teams in the region. Yes, their loss to NCC was bad... well NCC is a very good team... they (NCC) could make a deep run in the playoffs. They outplayed WC for the first half, then lost the 2nd half in which WC played their best football of the year. My point is, they're "quality" losses. I don't think you can say the same for Franklin (loss to Rose-Hulman), Denison (loss to DePauw), and RHIT (losses to Illinois College & Mt St Joe). IWU's best win is at Carthage and yes, that win isn't as impressive as some of FC, Denison, or RHIT's wins, but they don't have any "bad" losses.

Just wanted to throw that out there...

But IWU hasn't beaten anybody that matters.  Carthage- maybe?  But even that goes away unless Carthage wins this weekend.  RHIT, Franklin, and Denison have all won a game against a ranked team.  For me at least, who you beat matters more than you who you lost to. 

I think IWU is going to be in this top 10 due to attrition over the next two weeks (and may well be in today's official regional rankings), but there's more than enough sound reasoning to have them just outside of the top 10 at this point. 

[smedindy]

I ranked them when they beat Carthage, and I think I have DPU, Carthage, and Olivet right behind.

[USee]

This is the fun times in the poll. Early in the season we are all hashing around about comparitive data points. The variance is big. For some teams we get one big win or one bad loss. We argue beginning of the season matters/doesn't matter as much, a tight loss is an anomoly, injuries affected the outcome, etc, etc.  Then teams who have a big win add a bad loss and visa versa and we are all stuck trying to make sense of it. It's human nature to anchor on the data point(s) that lend themselves to prove out our own built in biases. That's what makes this poll fun, it's part art part science.

I voted:

1. Mt Union
2. North Central
3. Wheaton
4. Wittenberg
5. John Carroll
6. Olivet
7. Franklin
8. Denison
9. Wabash
10. IWU

There are pro's and cons for most of the teams past #3. For Witt I see wins over Wabash and Depauw and a loss @Denison. Their wins are convincing wins and their loss is on the road in a tight one. Their overall SOS and defensive/offensive rank put them here for me.

John Carroll is an enigma because of the vaccum that is the OAC right now. JCU lost big at UWO (most of these teams would have the same result @UWO) but haven't really stood out, good or bad, the rest of the way. After UWO, their defense has been pretty good so I am giving them the benefit of the doubt this week with #5 ranking. Last week I had them below the NCAC logjam. this week they are in the middle of it.

Olivet is also an interesting case study. They beat Elmhurst more convincingly than Wheaton did, Benedictine in a closer game than Wheaton, Albion more easily than Wabash and have a bad loss to St John Fisher. Their SOS is second in the NR only to Wheaton and that's probably because of so many common opponents. So in the end, for me, a bunch of decent wins over decent teams along with one bad loss to a good/decent team has them 6th. They play Adrian and Trine now so they could solidify their spot or drop out completely.

Franklin...Franklin.....Franklin. Talk about enigma. First of all, the notion that the Butler loss affects anyone's ranking on here is hogwash IMO. I don't even think twice about it. They have been the only 2 loss team ranked for weeks and that's because everyone sees them as a one loss team. My assessment is they have a good win v TMC and a bad loss v RHIT. I know some view the RHIT loss as a sign of strength for Rose-H but RH has 2 really bad losses that say otherwise. Franklin has a great pass offense and not a lot else to hang their hat on. They still stay at #7 for me.

I dropped Denison to #8 and Wabash is #9. That gets sorted out this weekend but I am more bullish on the LG's than I am on Denison, in large part because  of Gisele's injury. (Couldn't resist the Tom Brady inference).

IWU checks in at #10 mainly because their body of work and schedule are better than any other two loss team I can find.

[Dr. Acula]

I'm the 5th column this week.  I threw RHIT in at 9 I suppose because I'm more in Wally's camp as far as valuing who you beat more than who you lose to.  That being said it's tough to swallow their losses because they're bad. 

I left Olivet at 10.  I have been moving IWU on and off my ballot a little.  A better showing against Elmhurst likely would have had the Titans at 9 or 10 this week.

JCU is really hard to rank.  I think their defense is good.  I think they have some good skill guys at RB and WR.  They have a green QB.  And the OAC doesn't really tell us anything.  To be quite honest, with how much turnover there was at Mount combined with a freshman QB I don't even know how much we'll be able to take from the Mount/JCU result.  This isn't a typical Mount team.

[smedindy]

Wait, Olivet's not second in the North in SOS.

From what I see in the Top 100 (and I may have missed some):

11. Hope
21. OWU
22. Wheaton
32. Hiram
42. ONU
50. Olivet
53. Wittenberg
57. Benedictine
59. Albion
66. Franklin
69. Carroll
70. Capital
72. Wooster
74. Carthage
81. Manchester
82. IWU
84. Augustana
88. DPU
89. North Park
94. Kalamazoo
99. North Central
100. Adrian

Olivet's got a good NCAA SOS - which isn't really a SOS but more of a rating of how good are the records of who you play are. I think the biggest flaw with the NCAA SOS is that for teams in large conferences who choose to round robin then there's one data point outside of your league. It affects hoops too but not AS much.

The SOS for the NCAC and the OAC are going to normalize after they finish their schedule. ONU has a high SOS thanks to playing Utica (having a great year in a tough conference, but they haven't played Wilmington yet, and that will drive their SOS down.

[wally_wabash]

Wait, Olivet's not second in the North in SOS.

Second amongst the ranked teams + the handful of teams lingering just beyond the top 10 is how I read that. 

[Mugsy]

Also,

I've become a big fan of Logan Hansen's Rankings. He has IWU @ #20, ahead of Wabash (#29), Witt (#30), Franklin (#46), RHIT (#66). Not that the Hansen Rankings are the end-all-be-all, but there's a strong case for IWU to be higher.


... WHAT IS HAPPENING TO ME???... WHY ALL THE LOVE FOR IWU???

Going back to the CCIW board a couple weeks ago...   

[USee]

Wait, Olivet's not second in the North in SOS.

Second amongst the ranked teams + the handful of teams lingering just beyond the top 10 is how I read that.

Yessir. And I am well aware of the limitations of SOS but the point is it does included OOWP and given the many common opponents they have with others on the NRFP its not that hard to infer a value for Olivet. It's completely subjective and likely wrong, but it's not hard.

[smedindy]

No. It's not like I'm discounting Olivet all together. I just think there are 10 better teams, at least.

[wally_wabash]

I actually meant to post this in here originally.  I'll bring it over as it's not just CCIW-centric. 

Regional Rankings released:

NORTH         
1   Mount Union   8-0   8-0
2   North Central (Illinois)   6-0   8-0
3   Wheaton (Illinois)   7-1   7-1
4   John Carroll   7-1   7-1
5   Olivet   7-1   7-1
6   Denison   7-1   7-1
7   Wittenberg   7-1   7-1
8   Franklin   6-1   6-2
9   Rose-Hulman   7-2   7-2
10   Wabash   7-1   7-1

Some initial thoughts on this list:

- More or less makes sense.  The RAC decided to promote John Carroll ahead of the NCAC mess which was one thing I was interested to see. 

- Strange that if they're going to rank Rose-Hulman that they wouldn't go ahead and rank Rose-Hulman ahead of Franklin.  The placement of those two teams relative to one another doesn't impact the at-large situation, so why not honor the recent h2h? 

- Why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  I mean, we know why, but per the criteria- seriously, why not Olivet in front of John Carroll?  It doesn't make a ton of sense to me given that...

- Wabash is paying a steep, steep price for that SOS.  It's coming up over the last two weeks into something that will look like John Carroll's 0.466 this week (which is good enough for 4th in the absence of any good results), so don't get too crazy, LG fans.  I think Denison looks like they'll stay ranked even if they lose this weekend, which is going to give Wabash a 1-1 vs RROs.  That, plus another SOS boost for playing DePauw, and a John Carroll loss coming in two weeks means that Wabash could very well jump up behind Wheaton for that 2nd at large position.  Franklin is the hair in the soup at the moment- I don't really know how they'll move over the last two weeks relative to other teams that have big games left to play. 

And so to conclude my point about JCU/Olivet- if SOS is the thing that knocks Wabash all the way down to 10 on this list (which is totally fair, btw...I don't have an issue with that ranking), then it should be a thing that boosts Olivet (0.556) over John Carroll (0.466).  A 0.090 difference in NCAA SOS is enormous and ought to be honored.

[smedindy]

Say JCU loses 24-20 or something like that to Mt. Union. Do they stay ahead of the NCAC runner-up with 1 loss?

[thunderdog]

Also,

I've become a big fan of Logan Hansen's Rankings. He has IWU @ #20, ahead of Wabash (#29), Witt (#30), Franklin (#46), RHIT (#66). Not that the Hansen Rankings are the end-all-be-all, but there's a strong case for IWU to be higher.


... WHAT IS HAPPENING TO ME???... WHY ALL THE LOVE FOR IWU???

Going back to the CCIW board a couple weeks ago...   

Nailed it yet again Mugsy