FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

At least 3 CCIW coaches believe this is the deepest CCIW league in history.  My analysis concurs with that sentiment.  Most years our 4/5 teams are good but not this good.  Carthage could go 0-3 the next 3 weeks but they are good enough to go 3-0 and capture the AQ. It's a brutal stretch but they are absolutely good enough to do it. 3 turnovers in 6 games with 16 takeaways is ridiculous. They play defense, stop the run, have the best WR in the conference, and take care of the football. That's a pretty strong recipe for success. Millikin's QB has been better than Broc Rutter (who is unreal), just look at the numbers and watch him play. With all respect and praise for Rutter,  Stepina, in my view, is the OPOY in the conference this year and it's not that close. The main difference between NCC and Millikin is the Big Blue have much better receivers than NCC.

Not sure why Wheaton can beat NCC by 22 points and NCC gets a pass but Wheaton over Carthage by 17 means Carthage doesn't measure up. Carthage is going to beat some or all of those teams because they are that good.  NCC, IWU, Carthage and Millkin all have 1 loss by double digit margins. Wheaton has two losses by a combined total of 8pts.

[Dr. Acula]

I was column 9. Further off my ballot were 11 Heidelberg, 12 Wabash, 13 Trine, 14 Carthage

Lots of opinions on the ordering of Illinois Wesleyan, North Central, and Wheaton (and this isn't even throwing in the 4 ballots that had Millikin or Carthage in the mix)
IWU, NCC, WC 5 ballots
WC, NCC, IWU 2
NCC, IWU, WC 2
IWU, WC, NCC 1

One of the more interesting parts of the poll.  I wasn't sure what people were going to do with the Wheaton/NCC result- I barely knew what to do with it, if I'm honest.  I'm the fourth column and my order was: IWU 2, NCC 3, Millikin 5, Wheaton 6, Carthage 7.  When processing that Wheaton/NCC game, I eventually landed on giving Wheaton partial credit.  I felt like the circumstances were so strange that it was just difficult to give Wheaton full credit for that result (opponent and margin).  Had that whole thing happened on Saturday night, my ballot plays out quite differently.  I thought I'd be the oddball on that, but it turns out that most of us did something similar.

After much frustration I ended up on this same order (albeit different rankings) for the CCIW schools.  I'm the 2nd column. 

BTW, don't think that it doesn't make me sad that I'm ranking 5 CCIW teams and I can't even bring myself to throw a 2nd OAC on my ballot.  Not a great year for the OAC which, aside from last year, is becoming too much of a trend for my liking.     

[smedindy]

I had:

IWU 3
Carthage 4
N Central 5
Millikin 6
Wheaton 7

Frankly, I could have just stuck their names in a hat and pulled them out randomly to rank them 3-7. I switched this order at least four times.

[Ryan Stoppable]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

[thunderdog]

One of the more interesting parts of the poll.  I wasn't sure what people were going to do with the Wheaton/NCC result- I barely knew what to do with it, if I'm honest.  I'm the fourth column and my order was: IWU 2, NCC 3, Millikin 5, Wheaton 6, Carthage 7.  When processing that Wheaton/NCC game, I eventually landed on giving Wheaton partial credit.  I felt like the circumstances were so strange that it was just difficult to give Wheaton full credit for that result (opponent and margin).  Had that whole thing happened on Saturday night, my ballot plays out quite differently.  I thought I'd be the oddball on that, but it turns out that most of us did something similar.

wally,

I'm not sure I follow your logic here. Why would WC only be given partial credit? The circumstances, as strange as they were, were identical for both teams.

Look, Saturday night wasn't going well for the Thunder, that's not a secret. NCC had 270 yards in the 1st half alone. Despite "being dominated" - those aren't my words, they actually belong to NCC's punter who took to Twitter to talk about being blessed for the opportunity to "dominate Xheaton twice in 1 week" - Wheaton trailed by only 6 at half. Yes, we took the best shots NCC had to offer and we only trailed by 6 with a full half of football still to be played. And what happened in the 2nd half? I think's it's safe to say that would fall into the "domination" category. Heck, NCC went for a 4th & 6 from their own 26, trailing 20-35, with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter? If that's not a panic/desperation move, not sure what is.

Wheaton grabbed the momentum away from NCC starting on Saturday night when Spencer Peterson found Carter Roberts on a 34 yard pass with 1 minute to play in the half, cutting the lead from 0-13 to 7-13. I think it's a stretch to say the only reason the momentum carried into the 2nd half is because it was played on a different night.

As someone who highly values your opinion on all things d3 football, I'm curious as to why NCC should be given a pass more so than Wheaton given credit for what happened on Monday night?

[wally_wabash]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

I think if Lakeland keeps winning, they'll wind up on some ballots here as the CCIWs start knocking each other around and out.  It's a strange circumstance of the schedule that we're getting into Week 8 and there are four 1-loss CCIW teams and on 2-loss CCIW team, that might actually be better than the previously noted four. 

One of the more interesting parts of the poll.  I wasn't sure what people were going to do with the Wheaton/NCC result- I barely knew what to do with it, if I'm honest.  I'm the fourth column and my order was: IWU 2, NCC 3, Millikin 5, Wheaton 6, Carthage 7.  When processing that Wheaton/NCC game, I eventually landed on giving Wheaton partial credit.  I felt like the circumstances were so strange that it was just difficult to give Wheaton full credit for that result (opponent and margin).  Had that whole thing happened on Saturday night, my ballot plays out quite differently.  I thought I'd be the oddball on that, but it turns out that most of us did something similar.

wally,

I'm not sure I follow your logic here. Why would WC only be given partial credit? The circumstances, as strange as they were, were identical for both teams.

Look, Saturday night wasn't going well for the Thunder, that's not a secret. NCC had 270 yards in the 1st half alone. Despite "being dominated" - those aren't my words, they actually belong to NCC's punter who took to Twitter to talk about being blessed for the opportunity to "dominate Xheaton twice in 1 week" - Wheaton trailed by only 6 at half. Yes, we took the best shots NCC had to offer and we only trailed by 6 with a full half of football still to be played. And what happened in the 2nd half? I think's it's safe to say that would fall into the "domination" category. Heck, NCC went for a 4th & 6 from their own 26, trailing 20-35, with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter? If that's not a panic/desperation move, not sure what is.

Wheaton grabbed the momentum away from NCC starting on Saturday night when Spencer Peterson found Carter Roberts on a 34 yard pass with 1 minute to play in the half, cutting the lead from 0-13 to 7-13. I think it's a stretch to say the only reason the momentum carried into the 2nd half is because it was played on a different night.

As someone who highly values your opinion on all things d3 football, I'm curious as to why NCC should be given a pass more so than Wheaton given credit for what happened on Monday night?

Appricate that, thanks.  I'll fully admit that my treatment of Wheaton 42, North Central 20 is pretty unfair to Wheaton.  The delay happened for both teams.  Both teams had the same opportunity to review and adjust.  I can't disagree with any of those things.  My thinking here is that the game basically got reset, Wheaton got a do-over from a night that maybe they would have won, but that wasn't certain and it certainly wasn't trending toward 42-20.  And I still can't just put those two Ls in my back pocket and forget they happened.  Wheaton lost those games and there's a poll penalty for losing.  So Wheaton stays the 4th ranked CCIW on my ballot. 

It would be a different thing if all or most of the game were played on Monday (Saturday).  The way it happened though, it's almost easier to digest the two halves of the game as two separate games.  The series is tied 1-1.  I need a third half to sort it out.

I would also say that when I locked in my ballot, I really thought I was going to be the one person holding Wheaton back.  It didn't turn out that way, and I think the other voters here probably wound up following a similar path as they figured out what to do with Wheaton.    And North Central definitely didn't get a pass.  They slipped in the poll this week. 

[HOPEful]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

I think if Lakeland keeps winning, they'll wind up on some ballots here as the CCIWs start knocking each other around and out.  It's a strange circumstance of the schedule that we're getting into Week 8 and there are four 1-loss CCIW teams and on 2-loss CCIW team, that might actually be better than the previously noted four. 

I was at the Hope Lakeland game, and can tell you it was a very good/fun game to watch. It was also a very strange game. The first half was all Lakeland save for three plays... but those three plays were a 68 yard TD, a punt return for a TD, and a 58 yard TD run. The second half seemed to be all Hope (they went up 37-23 with 8 minutes left in the game. The game ended 35-37 due to a failed 2 point conversion attempt to tie it and a failed onside kick. Just a strange game.

Here's what I know about Hope... they seem to be getting better every week. I wish the Monmouth had been later in the season, the result might have been different. I realize the goal for every team is to get better as the season progresses, but Hope seems to being doing it at a faster rate than years past or your average team. I would guess this has a lot to do with it being the second year for the head coach?

Lakeland might crack my list if they stay unblemished in the NACC and beat up on Aurora. But you can't just use one game (weird or not) to measure a team. Lakeland beat Adrian by 7 in a 47-40 game, Hope beat them 22-3, etc.)  Plus, as with Wheaton, you can't ignore the two losses, regardless of who they were to. Ultimately, with 0 quality wins, a weak conference, and two losses, it'll be difficult for Lakeland to build any kind of a resume to crack this list, IMO. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Hope or Trine. How much does being undefeated mean if your best win was at Albion? Personally, the winner of Hope @ Trine this weekend stays firmly in my rankings. The loser probably drops out.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

Agree with Wally and HOPEful.  Keep winning and you might make the bottom of a lot of ballots.  Being in what is generally considered to be the weakest conference in the North, you had just two chances to prove yourselves: beat Hope or lose (NO one would expect a win) respectably to Platteville - alas, you didn't do either.

Franklin and RHIT are in the same boat.  The HCAC is by general consensus the second-weakest North conference.  Neither is currently in the poll since they didn't do what they needed to do in the OOC.  At least they have each other!  The winner of this Saturday's game will almost certainly break into the poll.  Aurora, alas for you, is no Franklin or RHIT - but a win might be enough to get you votes (or even in).

[Ryan Stoppable]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

Agree with Wally and HOPEful.  Keep winning and you might make the bottom of a lot of ballots.  Being in what is generally considered to be the weakest conference in the North, you had just two chances to prove yourselves: beat Hope or lose (NO one would expect a win) respectably to Platteville - alas, you didn't do either.

Franklin and RHIT are in the same boat.  The HCAC is by general consensus the second-weakest North conference.  Neither is currently in the poll since they didn't do what they needed to do in the OOC.  At least they have each other!  The winner of this Saturday's game will almost certainly break into the poll.  Aurora, alas for you, is no Franklin or RHIT - but a win might be enough to get you votes (or even in).

Or we might lose tomorrow (today by now?) and it will all be a moot point, though I obviously hope not.

In any event, thanks to all of you for indulging me with the discussion. Ultimately, despite my belief that we should have won the Hope game (as should any team who gains 23 more first downs and runs 58 more offensive plays than its foe), we didn't. And we needed to win the game, because with the 2 losses, even if we win out, we're going to end up getting drawn against Oshkosh or...whoever comes out of the CCIW logjam, and that is not a recipe for winning playoff games. 9-1 might have given us a chance of a slightly friendlier draw.

But I digress. We still didn't beat Hope, and have 2 losses, and therefore shouldn't be in the NRFP right now, and maybe not later either. (I don't even think calling the NACC the weakest conference in the region is controversial; how can it not be when all of the eye-popping non-conference results go against its teams?) But we should, at least, be kept in mind.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

A lot to digest this week... Trine easily handled Hope, IWU survives Carthage (which I'll admit was a lot closer than I thought it'd be), Wittenberg destroys DePauw, Franklin takes control of the HCAC, Heidelberg gets upended by Marietta.
I'll probably have 2 new teams jump into my top 10 and I'm confident in who my top 2 teams are... beyond that I have no idea what my ballot will look like in a couple days.

[smedindy]

I almost put "THIS SPACE FOR RENT" at team #10

[HScoach]

I almost put "THIS SPACE FOR RENT" at team #10

Now that's funny.

And accurate

[Mr. Ypsi]

The new poll is out - they have the "CCIW Jumble" as 10. NCC  12. IWU  23. Wheaton  (24 points) Millikin, (zero points) Carthage.  I have the same order on my ballot, but disagree with Carthage receiving zero votes: I actually raised them one slot on my NRFP ballot for the 10-13 loss AT IWU.  Their defense is MUCH tougher than I had realized!  Only TWO teams have held the Titans to 13 points this season: NCC and Carthage. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Sorry to interrupt the CCIW discussion (and I might be just a tad bit biased ), but I'm fascinated by the fact that Hope is ranked 10th while my Muskies can't even sniff a ballot. Surely a 2 point head to head loss at Hope doesn't show that much separation?

Agree with Wally and HOPEful.  Keep winning and you might make the bottom of a lot of ballots.  Being in what is generally considered to be the weakest conference in the North, you had just two chances to prove yourselves: beat Hope or lose (NO one would expect a win) respectably to Platteville - alas, you didn't do either.

Franklin and RHIT are in the same boat.  The HCAC is by general consensus the second-weakest North conference.  Neither is currently in the poll since they didn't do what they needed to do in the OOC.  At least they have each other!  The winner of this Saturday's game will almost certainly break into the poll.  Aurora, alas for you, is no Franklin or RHIT - but a win might be enough to get you votes (or even in).

Or we might lose tomorrow (today by now?) and it will all be a moot point, though I obviously hope not.

In any event, thanks to all of you for indulging me with the discussion. Ultimately, despite my belief that we should have won the Hope game (as should any team who gains 23 more first downs and runs 58 more offensive plays than its foe), we didn't. And we needed to win the game, because with the 2 losses, even if we win out, we're going to end up getting drawn against Oshkosh or...whoever comes out of the CCIW logjam, and that is not a recipe for winning playoff games. 9-1 might have given us a chance of a slightly friendlier draw.

But I digress. We still didn't beat Hope, and have 2 losses, and therefore shouldn't be in the NRFP right now, and maybe not later either. (I don't even think calling the NACC the weakest conference in the region is controversial; how can it not be when all of the eye-popping non-conference results go against its teams?) But we should, at least, be kept in mind.

With Trine eviscerating Hope, your chances of even sneaking on to the bottom of ballots may be gone.  Though you might try lobbying smeds - he is desperate for a #10 team!

Good luck to the Muskies.  I fully expect you will make the playoffs, but fear you are correct that the first-round game will probably be a hopeless situation.  But shock the world and if you can't win, at least put a scare in 'em!

[izzy stradlin]

The new poll is out - they have the "CCIW Jumble" as 10. NCC  12. IWU  23. Wheaton  (24 points) Millikin, (zero points) Carthage.  I have the same order on my ballot, but disagree with Carthage receiving zero votes: I actually raised them one slot on my NRFP ballot for the 10-13 loss AT IWU.  Their defense is MUCH tougher than I had realized!  Only TWO teams have held the Titans to 13 points this season: NCC and Carthage.

The IWU offense is averaging 19 ppg in the CCIW so far this year so holding them to 13 was amazing.