FB: Region 4 fan poll

[wally_wabash]

We're all locked in!  NRFP through games of Week 8:


click to enlarge

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, USee, and wally wabash.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was column 6 this week.  In response to smedindy's angst over slot #10, if they don't deserve higher (usually the case) but don't totally stink (they're 6-1) do what I do: plug in "Wabash"!  They'd better do a heckuva lot better than DePauw against Witt this week if they want to stay on my ballot!

If there are two or more "eggs" laid this week, I may join smed's anguished cry!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I was column 4. Feels good to have folks voting for Franklin again

My ballot was tiered...
The Purple Power tier of Mount Union
The 'Excellent but not purple' tier of Witt
The CCIW tier of NCC, IWU, WC
The 'Decent enough that they're better than the alternatives' tier of Franklin, Trine, Carthage, Millikin
The 'I have a spot left and no one really deserves it' tier of Wabash and DePauw
The 'In a normal year probably wouldn't be close to sniffing 10th' tier of Rose, Hope, Lakeland, *insert 2 loss OAC team*

[Dr. Acula]

I'm column 1.  I knew I'd be on the low end with Wheaton at 7, but I'm interested to hear the thinking behind Wheaton at 2.  I debated them being anywhere between 4 and 7.

[HOPEful]

I'm column 5. Clearly I'm giving added value to being undefeated. There's not much more Trine could have done to this point to prove the belong. That, and the manner in which they dismantled Hope last weekend in what was a de facto conference championship game, earned them the 3 spot in my rankings. If they follow it up by laying an egg this weekend at Adrian, I will have no problem dropping them to eighth or lower.

It's very difficult assessing what to do with the CCIW... Do I think Wheaton would beat Wittenberg on a neutral field? Do I think Millikin would beat Trine? I don't know. Without any real common opponents, I'm giving the edge to the undefeated team I'm confident will get an AQ spot in the playoffs. For now.

[wally_wabash]

We can eye roll Trine's schedule, but their results are basically on par with what you would expect a really good team to do against that kind of schedule.  They're not squeaking by anybody.  Trine's statistical rankings within the region are also very strong.  Whatever reservations people had, should have been largely alleviated with Saturday's result.  Trine is 5th on my card (2nd column). 

[Gregory Sager]

I'm always the one on d3boards.com who argues that the present season should be taken on its own. However, football's an anomaly, because the extremely limited amount of interleague competition creates such a sense of isolation for comparison purposes in the D3 version of this sport. Football might thus be the only sport in which a moderately strong emphasis upon past-season performance is warranted when constructing rankings. And the past performance of MIAA champions in postseason play is not a pretty one:

2016: John Carroll 37, Olivet 12
2015: Wabash 35, Albion 14
2014: Mount Union 63, Adrian 3
2013: North Central 63, Albion 7
2012: Franklin 42, Adrian 10
2011: UW-Whitewater 59, Albion 0
2010: UW-Whitewater 45, Trine 31

In other words, you have to go back seven years to find a MIAA champion that didn't get blown out in the first round.

The MIAA as a whole this season is 13-12 in non-conference play. It breaks down as:

1-1 vs. CCIW
3-1 vs. HCAC
0-1 vs. MWC
8-3 vs. NACC
0-2 vs. NCAC
0-2 vs. OAC
1-0 vs. PAC
0-2 vs. WIAC

Three non-conference games remain, all against NACC teams.

All of the MIAA's wins came against other lower-tier leagues save one -- Olivet's 26-20 win over Elmhurst, in which the game ended with EC taking a shot at the end zone from the Olivet 22. And Elmhurst (2-5, 2-3) isn't exactly burning up the track in the CCIW.

Does this mean that Trine's undefeated record and gaudy winning margins are irrelevant, or that Trine couldn't hold its own against the top-tier teams in the North Region? No, not necessarily. Again, the lack of crossover really prevents any solid conclusions from being drawn. But, based upon what scant indirect evidence there is, if I was a voter in your poll I wouldn't put a tremendous amount of stock in Trine.

[Dr. Acula]

We can eye roll Trine's schedule, but their results are basically on par with what you would expect a really good team to do against that kind of schedule.  They're not squeaking by anybody.  Trine's statistical rankings within the region are also very strong.  Whatever reservations people had, should have been largely alleviated with Saturday's result.  Trine is 5th on my card (2nd column).

At this point I'm almost treating Trine this year like I normally treat Franklin.  I know their competition is not great, but they're doing exactly what I think a very good team would do against those teams and dominating them.  That certainly doesn't translate into playoff wins necessarily, but I can only go off of what has occurred to date. 

[smedindy]

I've got Trine 8th, because I'm waiting for the CCIW to reveal itself. Carthage's second loss helps a bit, but I still think they're better than Trine.

The RR's will be interesting for sure. If Trine goes undefeated, will they be slotted at 3rd or 4th despite their poor SOS?

[wally_wabash]

I think that's a fair take, Greg.  My only counter is that with all of those teams running back to the 2010 Eric Watt Trine team two things are common:
- they all lost out of conference games, some by hideous margins (particularly in some of those old MIAA/CCIW crossover games)
- the league champions either lost in conference somewhere or made it through undefeated, but were pushed by league competition consistently

It's not until you go back to that Trine team where you find an MIAA champ that went through undefeated and conquered their schedule as easily as 2017 Trine has.  That Trine team did win a playoff game at DePauw before eventually succumbing to the national champs up in Whitewater (in a game that was tied 31-31 through 3 quarters). 

I'll need some of our folks more familiar with the MIAA week-to-week to chime in, but this Trine seems like the best MIAA team since that Trine team by a fair margin.  I think Trine is a sneaky tough draw for any of the non-purply schools they might go to (or host) in Week 12. 

[bluestreak66]

I'm always the one on d3boards.com who argues that the present season should be taken on its own. However, football's an anomaly, because the extremely limited amount of interleague competition creates such a sense of isolation for comparison purposes in the D3 version of this sport. Football might thus be the only sport in which a moderately strong emphasis upon past-season performance is warranted when constructing rankings. And the past performance of MIAA champions in postseason play is not a pretty one:

2016: John Carroll 37, Olivet 12
2015: Wabash 35, Albion 14
2014: Mount Union 63, Adrian 3
2013: North Central 63, Albion 7
2012: Franklin 42, Adrian 10
2011: UW-Whitewater 59, Albion 0
2010: UW-Whitewater 45, Trine 31

In other words, you have to go back seven years to find a MIAA champion that didn't get blown out in the first round.

The MIAA as a whole this season is 13-12 in non-conference play. It breaks down as:

1-1 vs. CCIW
3-1 vs. HCAC
0-1 vs. MWC
8-3 vs. NACC
0-2 vs. NCAC
0-2 vs. OAC
1-0 vs. PAC
0-2 vs. WIAC

Three non-conference games remain, all against NACC teams.

All of the MIAA's wins came against other lower-tier leagues save one -- Olivet's 26-20 win over Elmhurst, in which the game ended with EC taking a shot at the end zone from the Olivet 22. And Elmhurst (2-5, 2-3) isn't exactly burning up the track in the CCIW.

Does this mean that Trine's undefeated record and gaudy winning margins are irrelevant, or that Trine couldn't hold its own against the top-tier teams in the North Region? No, not necessarily. Again, the lack of crossover really prevents any solid conclusions from being drawn. But, based upon what scant indirect evidence there is, if I was a voter in your poll I wouldn't put a tremendous amount of stock in Trine.

I have actually long thought the MIAA as a whole is not as bad as the playoff results would suggest. I think they suffer by being a decent conference surrounded by really, really good conferences. So they almost always have to go play the OAC or CCIW champs first.

[HOPEful]

I'm always the one on d3boards.com who argues that the present season should be taken on its own. However, football's an anomaly, because the extremely limited amount of interleague competition creates such a sense of isolation for comparison purposes in the D3 version of this sport. Football might thus be the only sport in which a moderately strong emphasis upon past-season performance is warranted when constructing rankings. And the past performance of MIAA champions in postseason play is not a pretty one:

2016: John Carroll 37, Olivet 12
2015: Wabash 35, Albion 14
2014: Mount Union 63, Adrian 3
2013: North Central 63, Albion 7
2012: Franklin 42, Adrian 10
2011: UW-Whitewater 59, Albion 0
2010: UW-Whitewater 45, Trine 31

I agree, it isn't pretty. But this list of opponents is hardly fair. John Carroll beat Whitewater last year 31-14 in the playoffs (Not very different from the 37-12 line for Olivet). In 2015, Wabash's first loss for the year came in December to St. Thomas. And all of the blowouts to Mount Union or Whitewater are simply no different than everyone else who's been blown out by those two schools over the past decade plus.

I believe Trine's team this year is the best MIAA team I've seen in quite some time. But if they have to go to Mount Union for the first round and lose by a score closer than 43-14, it would be the best anyone has been able to do against the Raiders so far this season. I don't think simplifying your list to read... 2017: Mount Union 42, Trine 21 would be a fair assessment of the MIAA's growth or a true measure of how good this team is compared to the other teams in the region not names Mount Union.

[HOPEful]

I'll need some of our folks more familiar with the MIAA week-to-week to chime in, but this Trine seems like the best MIAA team since that Trine team by a fair margin.  I think Trine is a sneaky tough draw for any of the non-purply schools they might go to (or host) in Week 12.

I thought this year's Hope team was the best I've ever seen in person. Trine beat them 50-14. Yes, I think it's fair to say this year's Trine team is the best MIAA team since that Trine team.

[wally_wabash]

Right now, I don't think Trine is in a position to draw Mount Union in the first round.  If they complete the regular season 10-0, they should see a winnable game in the first round, possibly host (if they've filed the paperwork...deadline today!!). 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Right now, I don't think Trine is in a position to draw Mount Union in the first round.  If they complete the regular season 10-0, they should see a winnable game in the first round, possibly host (if they've filed the paperwork...deadline today!!).

Back in 2012 when Concordia Chicago went 10-0 they hosted (although they lost a tight game to Bethel).