FB: Region 4 fan poll

[USee]

We're all locked in!  NRFP through games of Week 8:


click to enlarge

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, USee, and wally wabash.

Column 10 for me

[Mr. Ypsi]

Games of interest to NRFP voters this Saturday (barring some huge unforeseen upset):

Two that affect nearly all ballots:  Witt @ Wabash and Millikin @ Carthage.  Due to lack of good alternatives, Wabash just has to outperform DePauw (6-52) against Witt, which shouldn't be hard, to maintain a spot at the bottom of the poll.  An actual Wabash win would probably throw the NRFP into another spasm of disarray.  Massey has Carthage as an 86%-14% favorite.  I expect the RedMen to win, but think that margin of certainty is ridiculous (did Massey forget to enter the Wheaton games into his computer? )

Lakeland @ Aurora is Lakeland's last chance to do anything impressive for voters.  Trine @ Adrian will probably be a romp for the Thunder, but Adrian is traditionally a MIAA power, and the game is at their house. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, no huge unforeseen upsets, so a fairly quiet week.  My ballot is in.

Wabash not only outperformed DePauw, they definitely COULD have won that game.  I dropped Witt from 2 to 4, and raised Wabash from 10 to 9 (not very often that I lower the winner and raise the loser!).  Carthage won by more than I expected (3 scores), and rose from 7 to 6, while Millikin dropped from 6 to 10.  Trine was also quite impressive, winning a monkey-stomp, and rising from 8 to 7.  Since they have no decent opponents left, Lakeland needed to eviscerate a rather pedestrian Aurora team - they didn't, and are no longer even on my radar.  For the first time in forever, there is NO second OAC team that I am following at all - 3-loss Marietta giving ONU their third loss AT ONU took care of that.   Will the OAC EVER produce a team that can be a respectable second-choice for more than a season or two?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Barring upsets, looks like another quiet week coming up.  Unless I overlooked something, the only game likely to affect anyone's ballot (again, barring upsets) is Carthage @ NCC.  I'm expecting that NCC will win fairly easily (though probably not a blow-out - Carthage's defense is just too tough to expect blow-outs).

But I'll be rooting for Carthage to pull the upset and give IWU a shot at the AQ!  And if IWU can't beat Millikin the final week for the AQ, the CCIW would PROBABLY see an unprecedented FIVE-way tie for first, as Carthage, IWU, Millikin, NCC, and Wheaton would likely all finish 6-2!

I see the most probable CCIW finish as NCC 7-1 (AQ), IWU 7-1 (near lock for a C), Wheaton 6-2, Carthage and Millikin both 5-3.

[smedindy]

I swapped three CCIW teams around, but no other changes.

[HOPEful]

Trine's 55-34 win at Adrian was too close for me... (The game was tie 27-27 going into the 4th) I dropped them to be more in line with everyone else. Hope beat Adrian 22-3. An elite team doesn't allow Adrian to put up 34 points and I'm worried what happens to Trine in the playoffs when they play a team with a much better defense than any they've seen so far this season.

[smedindy]

Trine's SOS is horrible (an MIAA team with a bad SOS, imagine that). But I think they may slot in 5th in the RRs behind Mt. Union, Witt, North Central, and Illinois Wesleyan. Depending on what happens, they may have the best possible first round game for them (a 4/5).

If I had my guess, the RRs will be:

1. Mt. Union
2. Witt
3. North Central
4. Illinois Wesleyan
5. Trine
6. DePauw
7. Heidelberg
8. Wheaton
9. Millikin
10. Carthage

[wally_wabash]

I don't think we'll see five teams from the CCIW in the regional rankings. 

[smedindy]

I don't think we'll see five teams from the CCIW in the regional rankings.

Maybe, but I think they have better credentials than Wabash.

Oh, I forgot Franklin....they're 10th, I bet.

[wally_wabash]

I don't think we'll see Wabash in the RR's either.

[USee]

I don't think Millikin will be ranked but Carthage may sneak in there. I would be surprised if Heidelberg is ahead of Wheaton in the RR.  Heidelberg has a similar SOS (right now-Wheaton's will drop over next 2 weeks) and 0-1 v RRO where Wheaton will be 1-1 and possibly 2-1 (if Carthage sneaks in).

[HScoach]

Well, no huge unforeseen upsets, so a fairly quiet week.  My ballot is in.

Wabash not only outperformed DePauw, they definitely COULD have won that game.  I dropped Witt from 2 to 4, and raised Wabash from 10 to 9 (not very often that I lower the winner and raise the loser!).  Carthage won by more than I expected (3 scores), and rose from 7 to 6, while Millikin dropped from 6 to 10.  Trine was also quite impressive, winning a monkey-stomp, and rising from 8 to 7.  Since they have no decent opponents left, Lakeland needed to eviscerate a rather pedestrian Aurora team - they didn't, and are no longer even on my radar.  For the first time in forever, there is NO second OAC team that I am following at all - 3-loss Marietta giving ONU their third loss AT ONU took care of that.   Will the OAC EVER produce a team that can be a respectable second-choice for more than a season or two?

Not likely.   JCU had a chance but the whole coaching staff left, taking their soul with them.   The last really good team was Capital but they disappeared after Rocky Pentello graduated and Jim Collins left to join the GLIAC.     

[Dr. Acula]

Based on on-the-field merit there should not be a 2nd OAC team in the RR.  JCU has 3 losses.  Berg and ONU both lost to Etta.  That alone should automatically disqualify you IMO.   

[HScoach]

Maybe the NCAA regional committee will just rank 6 teams and sell the extra slots to another region?

[USee]

Well, no huge unforeseen upsets, so a fairly quiet week.  My ballot is in.

Wabash not only outperformed DePauw, they definitely COULD have won that game.  I dropped Witt from 2 to 4, and raised Wabash from 10 to 9 (not very often that I lower the winner and raise the loser!).  Carthage won by more than I expected (3 scores), and rose from 7 to 6, while Millikin dropped from 6 to 10.  Trine was also quite impressive, winning a monkey-stomp, and rising from 8 to 7.  Since they have no decent opponents left, Lakeland needed to eviscerate a rather pedestrian Aurora team - they didn't, and are no longer even on my radar.  For the first time in forever, there is NO second OAC team that I am following at all - 3-loss Marietta giving ONU their third loss AT ONU took care of that.   Will the OAC EVER produce a team that can be a respectable second-choice for more than a season or two?

Not likely.   JCU had a chance but the whole coaching staff left, taking their soul with them.   The last really good team was Capital but they disappeared after Rocky Pentello graduated and Jim Collins left to join the GLIAC.   

Rocky Pentello graduated? I thought I saw him out there....(sorry, couldn't resist)