FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Mr. Ypsi]

This is a week where you put Mount followed by JCU, then you take all the teams that are left in the North, put them on the wall and start throwing darts.

Mount yes, JCU, no. They are part of the morass that is left

Respectfully disagree.  IMHO there is a clear top four (UMU, JCU, IWU, and NCC), THEN the morass begins.

Unless I overlooked a matchup this week, aside from any upset, the ONLY game in the north that affects ballots this week is NCC @ IWU (probably the game of the week for all of D3).

[USee]

I don't disagree.

For me it's:

1. Mt Union

2-4 IWU/JCU/NCC

5+ The rest

I ranked JCU 3rd last week. Likely to stay in that position. Their QB has been absolutely awful in big games and their defense inconsistent to be consdered a clear #2. Both those other teams have had very consistent offenses , though gettable defenses vs good offenses.

[HOPEful]

My rankings...

1. Mount Union
2. John Carroll
3. The CCIW
4. Everyone else

[CollegeGolf18]

This is a week where you put Mount followed by JCU, then you take all the teams that are left in the North, put them on the wall and start throwing darts.

Mount yes, JCU, no. They are part of the morass that is left

Respectfully disagree.  IMHO there is a clear top four (UMU, JCU, IWU, and NCC), THEN the morass begins.

Unless I overlooked a matchup this week, aside from any upset, the ONLY game in the north that affects ballots this week is NCC @ IWU (probably the game of the week for all of D3).

For me it's Mount then JCU. I still think the best result that defines that second spot is a close loss to Mount.

I'm more on the fence where to put Wabash vs. Witt. Witt was 3rd on mine, Wabash I had ranked two weeks ago as the lone person at 10 but then last week I dropped them off.

[wally_wabash]

Back at full strength!  Here is your 2018 Week 9 NRFP:


click to enlarge

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, CollegeGolf18, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, Mr Ypsi, NCF,  smedindy, thunderdog, USee, and wally wabash.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The NCAC trio is interesting...
5- Wabash-Witt-Denison #7, 9, 10, 11, 12
2- Denison-Wabash-Witt #4, 5
2- Denison-Witt-Wabash #3, 8
1- Witt-Denison-Wabash #1
1- Wabash-??-?? #2
1- Witt-??-?? #6

Those last two had two teams not ranked so we don't know their order. 6 Have Wabash on top, 4 have Denison, and 2 have Wittenberg as the best of the three.
Wabash over Witt 8 vs 4
Witt over Denison 7 vs 4 (1 unknown)
Wabash over Denison 6 vs 5 (1 unknown)

For the record I was column 8.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm column 11.  I felt bad leaving off Denison (they'd be #11), but just ran out of room (memo to Denison: don't lose to a 4-4 Texas team next time!).  I'd also like to vote for Franklin (who is now 7-1, losing only at underrated Albion), but the ballot ain't long enough!  Eureka is also starting to grow on me, but with their schedule I think their only hope of ballot inclusion is a credible showing in the playoffs; alas, they will likely be the 8th seed and get pulverized.

[JCUStreaks70]

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

[HOPEful]

I'm column 6. I blundered and inexplicably forgot about Wabash when plugging in the 10 spot. They clearly have a better resume than Hope by their OT win against Witt alone...

That being said, I think we've all seen Wittenberg sliding for several weeks. They were once the clear #3 in the region... Giving up 66 points to Denison was pretty eye opening. I do question if the loss to Wabash says more about Wabash or Wittenberg.

Also, I understand that Trine is undefeated. But I firmly believe Wheaton and Washington would both beat the MIAA leader nine times out of ten.

[HOPEful]

I'm going on a limb and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

Hahahaha

[Dr. Acula]

I'm column 6. I blundered and inexplicably forgot about Wabash when plugging in the 10 spot. They clearly have a better resume than Hope by their OT win against Witt alone...

That being said, I think we've all seen Wittenberg sliding for several weeks. They were once the clear #3 in the region... Giving up 66 points to Denison was pretty eye opening. I do question if the loss to Wabash says more about Wabash or Wittenberg.

Also, I understand that Trine is undefeated. But I firmly believe both Wheaton and Washington would both beat the MIAA leader nine times out of ten.

I'm column 9 so I'm one of the low water marks for Trine for much the same reason.  The simplest way I can put it is that I'm impressed by Carswell.  I'm not that impressed by Trine. 

This week the hardest thing for me was deciding where to slot Wabash into things.  I agree that Witt may be trending the wrong direction a little before the loss, but I still view beating an undefeated Witt team in Springfield as a significant W.  I understand that not everyone weights that win the same, but I don't understand how multiple people had BW on their ballot and left Wabash out.  I'd get it if the BW resume belonged to someone who had earned some cred like JCU or one of the CCIW trio, but it's BW. 

[bluestreak66]

I'm going on a limb and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

Hahahaha

In fairness, losing big to Wheaton and losing to LaCrosse can't be as bad as a close loss to the perennial national champ, right? 

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I'm column 11.  I felt bad leaving off Denison (they'd be #11), but just ran out of room (memo to Denison: don't lose to a 4-4 Texas team next time!).  I'd also like to vote for Franklin (who is now 7-1, losing only at underrated Albion), but the ballot ain't long enough!  Eureka is also starting to grow on me, but with their schedule I think their only hope of ballot inclusion is a credible showing in the playoffs; alas, they will likely be the 8th seed and get pulverized.

The GRIZ can live with no ratings love. 7-1 the train is rolling towards the HCAC autobid. Early September was eons ago when FC coughed it up on the road up in Michigan.  Many of the HCAC scores are controlled.  Coach Leonard is the master at getting younger players time and building depth.  The reality is many of these "ranked" teams will be sitting home.  FC holds it own in the playoffs.

[USee]

I'm going on a limb and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

Hahahaha

In fairness, losing big to Wheaton and losing to LaCrosse can't be as bad as a close loss to the perennial national champ, right? 

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

[bluestreak66]

I'm column 11.  I felt bad leaving off Denison (they'd be #11), but just ran out of room (memo to Denison: don't lose to a 4-4 Texas team next time!).  I'd also like to vote for Franklin (who is now 7-1, losing only at underrated Albion), but the ballot ain't long enough!  Eureka is also starting to grow on me, but with their schedule I think their only hope of ballot inclusion is a credible showing in the playoffs; alas, they will likely be the 8th seed and get pulverized.

The GRIZ can live with no ratings love. 7-1 the train is rolling towards the HCAC autobid. Early September was eons ago when FC coughed it up on the road up in Michigan.  Many of the HCAC scores are controlled.  Coach Leonard is the master at getting younger players time and building depth.  The reality is many of these "ranked" teams will be sitting home.  FC holds it own in the playoffs.

Problem is, while September was a long time ago, it was still this season, so that result can't be thrown out. Likelihood of making the playoffs is no indicator on how high a team should be ranked, and unfortunately, losing to a middle of the road MIAA team combined with a weak HCAC schedule is not a recipe for a regional ranking. In reality, even though someone like BW or Wheaton (or at least one NCAC team) will be sitting at home, most of the region seems to think (accurately in my opinion) that those teams would probably beat Franklin in a game