FB: Region 4 fan poll

[JCUStreaks70]

I'm going on a limb and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

Hahahaha

In fairness, losing big to Wheaton and losing to LaCrosse can't be as bad as a close loss to the perennial national champ, right? 

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

[wally_wabash]

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

How do you square that idea with 52-30 and then say that you're not actively avoiding information that hurts your CCIW bias?

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I'm column 11.  I felt bad leaving off Denison (they'd be #11), but just ran out of room (memo to Denison: don't lose to a 4-4 Texas team next time!).  I'd also like to vote for Franklin (who is now 7-1, losing only at underrated Albion), but the ballot ain't long enough!  Eureka is also starting to grow on me, but with their schedule I think their only hope of ballot inclusion is a credible showing in the playoffs; alas, they will likely be the 8th seed and get pulverized.

The GRIZ can live with no ratings love. 7-1 the train is rolling towards the HCAC autobid. Early September was eons ago when FC coughed it up on the road up in Michigan.  Many of the HCAC scores are controlled.  Coach Leonard is the master at getting younger players time and building depth.  The reality is many of these "ranked" teams will be sitting home.  FC holds it own in the playoffs.

Problem is, while September was a long time ago, it was still this season, so that result can't be thrown out. Likelihood of making the playoffs is no indicator on how high a team should be ranked, and unfortunately, losing to a middle of the road MIAA team combined with a weak HCAC schedule is not a recipe for a regional ranking. In reality, even though someone like BW or Wheaton (or at least one NCAC team) will be sitting at home, most of the region seems to think (accurately in my opinion) that those teams would probably beat Franklin in a game

possibly.  Last year FC took undefeated and Top 10 Wartburg to OT in Iowa and then Wartburg blasted Trine at home.  As there is no reliable way to compare teams and records (such as Ken Pom for NCAA basketball) its all speculation.  Franklin accounts for themselves very well most years in the playoffs. We will find out this month. 

[bluestreak66]

I'm column 11.  I felt bad leaving off Denison (they'd be #11), but just ran out of room (memo to Denison: don't lose to a 4-4 Texas team next time!).  I'd also like to vote for Franklin (who is now 7-1, losing only at underrated Albion), but the ballot ain't long enough!  Eureka is also starting to grow on me, but with their schedule I think their only hope of ballot inclusion is a credible showing in the playoffs; alas, they will likely be the 8th seed and get pulverized.

I absolutely agree with that. Certainly, of the "weak" conference teams, Franklin is about the only one that might have a shot at winning a post season game or 2. I think a lot of people look at this years teams as one of Franklin's weaker teams in recent memory. If not for the loss to Albion, they would likely be in the middle of the top 10!

The GRIZ can live with no ratings love. 7-1 the train is rolling towards the HCAC autobid. Early September was eons ago when FC coughed it up on the road up in Michigan.  Many of the HCAC scores are controlled.  Coach Leonard is the master at getting younger players time and building depth.  The reality is many of these "ranked" teams will be sitting home.  FC holds it own in the playoffs.

Problem is, while September was a long time ago, it was still this season, so that result can't be thrown out. Likelihood of making the playoffs is no indicator on how high a team should be ranked, and unfortunately, losing to a middle of the road MIAA team combined with a weak HCAC schedule is not a recipe for a regional ranking. In reality, even though someone like BW or Wheaton (or at least one NCAC team) will be sitting at home, most of the region seems to think (accurately in my opinion) that those teams would probably beat Franklin in a game

possibly.  Last year FC took undefeated and Top 10 Wartburg to OT in Iowa and then Wartburg blasted Trine at home.  As there is no reliable way to compare teams and records (such as Ken Pom for NCAA basketball) its all speculation.  Franklin accounts for themselves very well most years in the playoffs. We will find out this month.

[USee]

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

How do you square that idea with 52-30 and then say that you're not actively avoiding information that hurts your CCIW bias?

I think my track record is pretty clear as it relates to any bias. I am about as biased toward CCIW as you are toward Wabash and NCAC.

My data is also in the post you quoted. It's cool if you come to a different conclusion. I see a JCU team with a single digit win and a double digit loss over RRO's. NCC has 2 double digit wins and a double digit loss to RRO's. The latter is better than the former for me. That said, I have JCU/IWU/NCC as a pickem for spots 2-4.

I find it funny people want to focus on JCU's double digit loss and whether they are #2 or #4 and we have things like Millikin still getting ranked over a team that beat them 63-6 but no one seems to wonder how that squares?

[wally_wabash]

Voting for Millikin and not Wheaton is almost as strange as your continuing to categorize the JCU/UMU game as only a "double digit loss" without taking in any context about that game or JCU's opponent was (it was not just a generic ranked team). 

Almost. 

[bluestreak66]

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

How do you square that idea with 52-30 and then say that you're not actively avoiding information that hurts your CCIW bias?

I think my track record is pretty clear as it relates to any bias. I am about as biased toward CCIW as you are toward Wabash and NCAC.

My data is also in the post you quoted. It's cool if you come to a different conclusion. I see a JCU team with a single digit win and a double digit loss over RRO's. NCC has 2 double digit wins and a double digit loss to RRO's. The latter is better than the former for me. That said, I have JCU/IWU/NCC as a pickem for spots 2-4.

I find it funny people want to focus on JCU's double digit loss and whether they are #2 or #4 and we have things like Millikin still getting ranked over a team that beat them 63-6 but no one seems to wonder how that squares?

I think that while Wally is enthusiastic about Wabsh, I wouldn't call it a bias (same with the rest of the NCAC). I think he is fair enough to admit when Wabsh is having a down year, and doesn't throw votes at them because it's his team

[USee]

Wally,

I am very comfortable with the entirety of my analysis and would compare it to anyone else who votes. You have a different view, which is fine.  It was a double digit loss (that's not in dispute) and I watched the game and studied the outcome and had my analysis (much of which I have provided on this board). You suggested that meant they was a chasm between JCU and the rest of the north. My simple contention then was that JCU was closer to #3 than #1. As a result, I had JCU #2 at the time but was very suspicious. We now have a result against Marietta where a JCU team favored by 30 barely won by 4 (the losing team with the ball in JCU territory and a chance to win...that sounds familiar) which, for me,  (along with the fact their QB play is below average) validates the fact they are not head and shoulders above the rest of the North Region. I choose not to ignore the single digit win while you conveniently fail to recognize or mention it.

If Mt Union gets a rematch in the playoffs with JCU (should JCU even make it) I will happily place a friendly wager with you on the outcome. I'll take Mt Union and give you the 13 pts from the first game and we will see what happens. I'd be even more excited for a JCU/CCIW matchup in the playoffs, which is more likely.

[USee]

Again, I am not focused on who anyone lost to as I think its a flawed analytical tool. I am focused on who they beat. IWU is 4-1 against RRO's (using NRFP data) and has the 29th rated SOS. NCC is 2-1 against RRO's. JCU is 1-1 against RRO's and their 1 win is because Marietta went for it on their own 35 with a 4 pt lead. So I have to ask myself, is the real JCU the one where Fulford laid an egg and didn't play well (and was that because of the JCU Defense) and the Mt Union Defense did what they do to everyone, or is the real JCU the one that gave up 3 70+ yd drives and 24 pts to 2 loss Marietta. The JCU QB was a combined 23-49 (47%) zero TD's and 3 INTS in those two games. Thats some pretty bad football for a top North Region team against the best teams they have played.

I can't pick the data I want to use and ignore the data that hurts my bias. I see JCU as pretty even with the 2 CCIW schools and a significant notch below Mt Union. They are somewhere 2-4 in the region and right now the two CCIW schools have better results against better overall competition. That will obviously change this week with those two playing each other.

How do you square that idea with 52-30 and then say that you're not actively avoiding information that hurts your CCIW bias?

I think my track record is pretty clear as it relates to any bias. I am about as biased toward CCIW as you are toward Wabash and NCAC.

My data is also in the post you quoted. It's cool if you come to a different conclusion. I see a JCU team with a single digit win and a double digit loss over RRO's. NCC has 2 double digit wins and a double digit loss to RRO's. The latter is better than the former for me. That said, I have JCU/IWU/NCC as a pickem for spots 2-4.

I find it funny people want to focus on JCU's double digit loss and whether they are #2 or #4 and we have things like Millikin still getting ranked over a team that beat them 63-6 but no one seems to wonder how that squares?

I think that while Wally is enthusiastic about Wabsh, I wouldn't call it a bias (same with the rest of the NCAC). I think he is fair enough to admit when Wabsh is having a down year, and doesn't throw votes at them because it's his team

I agree and my point is that I have, over time, consistently given the CCIW (and my team) a fair assessment in the same regard. Yet Wally, for some reason, wanted to imply I have a CCIW bias. I have no more bias than he does and the evidence is pretty clear that's the case.

[USee]

Voting for Millikin and not Wheaton is almost as strange as your continuing to categorize the JCU/UMU game as only a "double digit loss" without taking in any context about that game or JCU's opponent was (it was not just a generic ranked team). 

Almost.

BTW, The equivalent of voting for Millikin over Wheaton would be if someone voted for JCU over Mt Union. It's not even close to related to your disagreement with my analysis, which is completely subjective.

[wally_wabash]

Voting for Millikin and not Wheaton is almost as strange as your continuing to categorize the JCU/UMU game as only a "double digit loss" without taking in any context about that game or JCU's opponent was (it was not just a generic ranked team). 

Almost.

BTW, The equivalent of voting for Millikin over Wheaton would be if someone voted for JCU over Mt Union. It's not even close to related to your disagreement with my analysis, which is completely subjective.

Was going for a little levity there, sorry.   

JCU/Marietta certainly tempers JCU/UMU and what the Streaks really are is much more open to interpretation than I think it was between weeks 4 and 8. 

[USee]

I'm going on a limb and saying that USee is Column 1? lol

Hahahaha

In fairness, losing big to Wheaton and losing to LaCrosse can't be as bad as a close loss to the perennial national champ, right? 

Here's what the North Region Committee Thinks as first rankings are out:

1 Mount Union 8-0
2 Illinois Wesleyan 7-1
3 John Carroll 7-1
4 Trine 8-0
5 North Central (Ill.) 7-1
6 Baldwin Wallace 7-1
7 Wabash 7-1
8 Wittenberg 7-1
9 Franklin 7-1
10 Eureka 8-0

Looks like Mr Ypsi is on the committee that votes there too.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Actually, I've had JCU ahead of IWU on my ballot all season.  That will change this coming week, as the winner of NCC @ IWU will take over second place on my ballot.

[thunderdog]

just a thought... for the next two weeks (and for the final 3 weeks of the regular season starting 2019)... we should submit 2 sets of rankings: 1- our personal rankings and 2- our projections for what we believe the committee will present. Those are 2 very different rankings, IMO.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I am nearly complete with a database of all the teams that have a legit shot (porjected conference winners and those with a chance to tie/win or finish a strong at large) at making the playoffs with multiple filters.  Send me you info private (others can too).  I am putting in the regional ranks and SOS.  easy way to rank multiple ways for those teams LIKELY to be in playoff.