FB: Region 4 fan poll

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

FWIW, I don't think Baldwin Wallace is better than Wheaton. But maybe the past performance of OAC teams will linger in the Committees minds.

It will be interesting for sure.

[HOPEful]

Totally agree. I don't think there's a "right answer". And yes, if St. John's loses to Bethel, a really really good team is going to get knocked out of the playoffs.

Assuming St. John's wins, I agree with your round 1 and 2. The discussion around Birmingham Southern, Baldwin Wallace, Hardin Simmons, and Wheaton will certainly center around those RROs or lack there of and their value. Does a win against Centre mean the same as a win against Heidelberg? Does John Carroll drop off the list with another loss? It would be fun to be a fly on the wall to hear the full discussion.

If I were on the committee, I would lobby hard for Wheaton in the 5th spot. That being said, I feel like a .500 SOS is kinda an easy line to draw.

My current prediction...

1. La Crosse
2. LL #2
3. Birmingham Southern
4. Hardin Simmons (I think the .528 vs .515 SOS trumps the win against Heidelberg. I am assuming John Carroll drops off as a RRO.. two wins against RROs would place BW here)
5. Baldwin Wallace or Wheaton. And if the conversation is centered around just the two, I think it's a lengthy debate that could go either direction. But as much as I'd like to think that the committee picks Wheaton (just because I think they're a much better team) that sub .500 SOS is so damning without a statement win to fall back onto.

[USee]

If the committee is going to ignore criteria to let Wheaton in, because similar to Mt Union in 2016, Wheaton will have a sub .500 SOS and a 9-1 record with 0-1 RRO. The difference is Mt Unions loss was to John Carroll and they had 1 loss to Oshkosh earlier that year and were not in the playoffs the year before. Wheaton's loss is a close loss to the defending, and undefeated national champ, and they are the only team to beat NCC or be close to them this year. That's the path both the regional and national committee will likely have to take.

[D3fanboy]

Wheaton might get passed up by HSU due to the Cowboys week 1 opponent being a garbage NAIA team (doesnt count) instead of a 2-7 D3 team that counts in the SOS.

[WW]

Wheaton might get passed up by HSU due to the Cowboys week 1 opponent being a garbage NAIA team (doesnt count) instead of a 2-7 D3 team that counts in the SOS.

Wheaton's SOS will get worse given the likelihood of another loss by their 2-6 non-conference opponent, and a date with 3-6 Millikin on tap.

Team that could wedge its way into serious consideration, IMO, is Oshkosh. They finish with 7-2 River Falls, which looks like it could find itself regionally ranked this week. Their D3 NC opponent, Huntingdon, is 7-2 and IMO likely to be regionally ranked this week (not sure how they left them off the list last week, but wuddev). SOS will get jacked over .600 this week, and they could be 2-2 vs RRO with a win over UWRF.

Just got a hunch Bethel is gonna make some of this irrelevant though...

[HOPEful]

Just got a hunch Bethel is gonna make some of this irrelevant though...

Right there with you. I have this gut feeling the first team off the board ends up being St. John's. And I think it's a pretty quick conversation that St. John's, LaCross, and whoever out of the Liberty League go 1, 2, 3.

In which case, the conversation would be around Wheaton, BW, and Birmingham Southern, and Oshkosh (assuming a win over River Falls). And if/when they give the 4th one to Birmingham Southern, Hardin Simmons for the final spot. I actually think a multiple team conversation works against Wheaton. It is easier to formulate an argument on why they deserve to be in over a single other team. They could argue that between just BW and Wheaton, it's "close enough" to bring previous years into consideration. When it's multiple other teams, it's easier to rule them out based off being the only SOS under .500 and lack of vRROs. The same argument could get turned around as to why Oshkosh should be in, a team that most likely won't get to the table if Bethel is ahead of them...

[HOPEful]

Or did you mean Bethel makes it irrelevant because they never come off the board and Oshkosh never makes it to the table?

[WW]

Or did you mean Bethel makes it irrelevant because they never come off the board and Oshkosh never makes it to the table?

No, as you first interpreted it — that they kick SJU into Pool C. Should they lose, I don't know that Bethel queues up ahead of Oshkosh should the Titans beat River Falls. Bethel's NC schedule was junk from SOS perspective (although SOS will get a boost from playing SJU twice) and they'll be 0-2 vs RRO.

[HOPEful]

Or did you mean Bethel makes it irrelevant because they never come off the board and Oshkosh never makes it to the table?

No, as you first interpreted it — that they kick SJU into Pool C. Should they lose, I don't know that Bethel queues up ahead of Oshkosh should the Titans beat River Falls. Bethel's NC schedule was junk from SOS perspective (although SOS will get a boost from playing SJU twice) and they'll be 0-2 vs RRO.

Agreed. I didn't think that through. A loss by Bethel definitely puts them behind Oshkosh should they beat River Falls.

[HOPEful]

And for what it's worth, I really want Baldwin Wallace to get in. Playing in the same conference as Mount Union the last 25 years should get any team bonus points.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Week 10

https://imgur.com/a/UuSewZB

[HOPEful]

Column 3 and I are pretty identical in our thinking. Same rankings exactly other than the 10 spot.

[Dr. Acula]

Column 3 and I are pretty identical in our thinking. Same rankings exactly other than the 10 spot.

That's me.  And they should have been the exact same because I didn't mean to leave Hope off completely.  I was going fast and just messed up. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Sorry for the lateness, everyone starts disappearing once Saturday's games end. We've got 6 ballots this week


https://imgur.com/a/UuSewZB

[HOPEful]

Also, I don't think Central is getting enough love yet. That team is really good and I wouldn't be shocked to see them beat someone "they shouldn't" in the playoffs.

I didn't think it would be Wheaton, but still...