NESCAC

[LaPaz]

Sat Predictions:

Midd v Hamilton- 1-0 While I think Hamilton has improved this year and played teams tougher than last year, I do not see them garnering a point in this game. They play way better at home than on the road. That's not to say I would lay any money on this one. They can still attack with some decent players and Midd's defense is the worst I have seen it in a long time. Knisley is big and ok as a CB but their wingbacks and other CB are average and can be beaten. A set piece wins this game sometime in the 2nd half for Midd. Either Knisley gets to a corner with his head or Alvand heads a free kick in.

Amherst v Williams- 1-1  This game is a matchup of 2 teams trying to impose 2 different styles on each other. Whichever team manages to do this more effectively wins the game. I see both teams being able to do this throughout the game and for that reason I see a draw in this one. Amherst a huge size advantage on set pieces but Williams has a speed advantage and that is why I do not see them fouling as much as they have. It will be interesting to see who Russo gives the nod to in goal for this game. I think Finan is more courageous and a tougher kid than Morrell.  Also, I question both teams inexperienced backlines on how they handle each other's very good attacking players. Expect a big crowd at this game as Amherst football is on the road.

Colby v Bowdoin- 0-2  Colby still looking for its first Nescac goal. Not in this game. Bowdoin wants revenge for last year and Brewster wins everything in the air. The only chance is if Bowdoin looking past this one and thinking Williams on Sunday.

Bates v Wesleyan- 0-2 Wesleyan to strong defensively for Bates to get any great chances on net. Wesleyan have better weapons going forward and they need 6pts this weekend to stay in the Nescac trophy hunt. Bates cannot play to defensive as they are running out of games to get points from to try to sneak into that 8th spot. It is not going to happen in this game.

Conn v Tufts- 0-0  Interesting game here. Conn looking to break Nescac record for 0-0 games in a year. Conn has injuries as I have not seen O'Brien in the lineup for a while and he is a factor for them. They have back to back's at home so they need to sub players more than usual I would think. It is tough to break them down especially on that sh*t field at home. Tufts has been my inconsistent team this year to predict. They have some great wins and then your expectations rise and they tie Colby and Trinity back to back.

Sun Predictions:

Bowdoin v Williams- 0-1 Williams gets out of here with a slim victory. After back to backs on the road with Amherst and Bowdoin, I will not be suprised to see the injury list grow for Williams.

Colby v Wesleyan- 0-1 No way Colby scores on this defense. Wesleyan will have a tougher game here than the day before but still come out victorious.

Conn v Midd - 2-0 Midd will have a long travel day after Sat game with Hamilton. They will not be able to break down Conn's defense at Conn and will have trouble I think defending them. I see Conn getting a goal or 2 and a much needed first victory in this one.

[LaPaz]

Monday bantering....Williams and Amherst played to a scoreless draw but Amherst imposed their style of play on the game and could have won the game 3-0. The ball was in Williams' defensive end for long stretches at a time. Amherst had the ball in the air for most of the game and controlled about 90% of headers. There size advantage was to much for Williams to handle. #4 Sucre must of had about 30 flick on's and about half of them landed on #9 Noon's foot. Noon was the most dangerous player on the day as he had a couple great chances at goals but could not finish. Amherst had some dangerous corners but there most dangerous part of their game are their 2 long throwers #15 Fikke and #20 Lerner. They must of had about 15-20 long throws in the game from both sides of the field and Williams' defense was under constant pressure from the start. #4 Sucre and #2 Sucre both at 6'5 and defender #12 at 6'4 controlled the game off each long throw and Noon, #23 Mooney and #19 Heo seemed to be in the right spots when the ball dropped but to Williams' credit they weathered the storm as best they could. #5 Ratachuck really is their only tall guy in the back at 6'4 but their keeper Finan kept Williams in the game with a couple big saves. Really though Williams snuck out of town with a point as they might of had 3 or 4 decent chances as their speed was neutralized by a grasss field that hadnt been mowed in maybe a month. A smart tactic for playing a Williams team that loves to keep the ball on the ground and use their team speed to beat you. They really did nothing in attack and that is a shame as Amherst' frosh keeper looked a bit awkward at times coming out of his net and just his overall demeanor. My guess is he hasnt really been tested all year and one team you would think would do that is Williams. Of course, Amherst coaches were yelling and screaming all game and acting crazy, Serpone got a yellow card 2 minutes in as it seemed the ref had dealt with him before and was not going to take any sh*t this game. Another pretty dirty play was when Williams sent a player to defend the long thrower on the right up to the out of bounds line #15 Fikke threw it right into his chest. A pretty dirtbag thing to do and he got carded for it. I believe the college rulebook allows opposing players to stand right in front of throwers, so the Williams player had every right to be there. Anyway, Amherst should be disappointed with a tie in this one but it is quite possible these 2 teams will meet again......My saturday predictions all turned out correct, not the scores exactly but the results. Colby still has no league goals in 6 games. They had the same team coming back from a average side last year and to be honest you hope for improvement and it has gotten ugly. I was expecting some better results, I have heard they have been a bit unlucky but you are what your record says you are. Conn has 5 ties in 7 games and without there 2 3-0 losses back to back to Trinity and Williams they have let up 3 goals in 5 games.Wesleyan has 5 shutouts in a row and let up 2 league goa;s all year in the same game. Amherst has let up 1 league goal and that will not change tmrw as they play Trinity and will win and shut them out. STINGY STINGY defenses and it will only get worse with the weather turning.

[Jump4Joy]

LaPaz,
Before and after the Williams/Amherst match, you mention Amherst's imposing their style of play...in the air...headers. I missed the first half. I saw a second half and overtime that featured more play on the ground than not AND, as you said, Williams on their back foot in their own end. If you are suggesting that Williams plays on the ground and works it out of the back, that may be true--against other opponents; they could not do either against Amherst and not because the ball was in the air while I was watching. In fact, perhaps Williams DID impose their style, but Amherst was better at it!

Also, I have yet to see Amherst's freshman keeper look awkward. He has been completely in control and effective. I'm confused about your assessment on that point. With his record, he has to be in consideration for ROY (although I know that will go to the guy, as always, who puts in the most goals and not the guy who lets the fewest in).

[amh63]

Amherst found its offense again and was more efficient with its opportunities.  Led by Noon, Amherst shutout Trinity 6-0 at home yesterday.

[LaPaz]

Umm Amhersts' keeper has prob had 15 shots aganist him all year. A testament to how good they are in front of him but by no means does that make him a great keeper yet. All I thought was, when he did come off his LINE he looked awkward and clumsy a bit. I have been wrong before and my mind can be changed. Also, if you are suggesting Amherst actually tried to play on the ground that day u must have been watching the clouds on the video screen or got up to many times for sandwiches. The ball was in the 2 long throwers hands and on Sucre's head 75% of the game. Not saying thats the right or wrong way to play at all, in fact they play to their strengh which is their size and then running off the ball after it is flicked on. Im willing to bet half their goals have been scored on set pieces this year(corners, throws, free kicks) another 25% on flick on's off Sucre's head to Noon or Heo. They are good at what they do, no problem with that. I wasnt being overly critical.

[Jump4Joy]

LaPaz,
Scarey! I looked at the box scores, and he's credited with 15 saves. Bingo (had you already peeked?). Still, keep watching him.
Also, I'm not saying that Amherst played on the ground most of the time, but they did so more than they had against Tufts the weekend before. Also, in addition to besting Williams in the air, the Jeffs were also more successful when playing on the ground than Williams was--a somewhat surprising idea, given the attention paid to Williams' contrasting style. Keep up the predictions and reports, LaPaz! It's interesting to watch games with ideas to test.

[LaPaz]

Sat Predictions:
Williams v Tufts -  1-2  My upset special. I think Williams is due for a loss and this game might be the perfect setup. Let us not forget Williams ended Tufts season last year with 2 late goals in the Nescac quarters in the "snow bowl game". Tufts also beat Williams 2-0 at home last year. While I usually do not base games on last year's results, these 2 teams have changed very little. Tufts have some dangerous weapons upfront with Hoppenot and Blumenthal and Santos. Their midfield is solid and backline if Sam Williams is healthy is ok. Now if the keeper is a disaster then all bets are off and Williams could win handily but I got a feeling this game like most will be tight.

Bates v Conn  -  0-1 Bates season is about to end in a week and a half with a worse record than last year's disaster. They are still looking for their first Nescac win in over 2 years. I do not understand why their best player Murphy is not playing in the middle of the park. So much for the coaching change and a 3-2 loss at Husson last night only adds to the misery. Conn is banged up a little but will sneak a goal or 2 somehow and Bates will find it extremely hard to score against this stingy defense. Wouldn't put a lot of money on it but think this result holds true.

Trinity v Midd  - 1-2 Hard to win at Trinity but what is going thru their minds after a 6-0 drubbing at Amherst. Confidence must be low and I do not see Trinity's coach being a hardass with his players. Midd has #4 smith and #11 Lively back looking at box scores and I heard Smith is playing up top. Midd has enough weapons to win this game and desperately needs to. I would think they still have a shot at the #5 or #6 seed if they can win out. This game will show us what Trinity is made of after that loss to Amherst. Do they wilt? Do they get pumped and play like it's the last game of their lives? Will be a good one to watch.

Amherst v Colby-  5-0 Well I have picked 3 road teams to win games and this will be the perfect game to go with the home side. Colby has been stingy on defense but Amherst is on a mission and Colby just cannot match up athletically and physically with them. This one gets out of hand early.

Hamilton v Bowdoin- 2-0 Another upset here. Bowdoin has a LONG trip out to central NY and have Amherst on their minds. Bowdoin the better team but Hamilton is fighting for their season this weekend and I believe they can win this game. They play well at home and have the weapons up front to beat Bowdoin's weak keeper and wingbacks. I love Brewster but Hamilton's #18 can handle him on set pieces. If Eddie Jones is still out these 2 teams match up pretty evenly in my mind with everything put into consideration. If this game was at Bowdoin then a totally different story.

Sunday's predictions:
Williams v Babson- 2-0 Williams has lost 2 in a row to basically the same Babson side and was eliminated by them 2 years ago in the NCAA's. Babson has definite weapons in Anderson up top and Fischer and Stento wide. Fisher a very good 1v1 player, but I believe Babson's backline is a bit inexperienced and keeper not as good as Crowley was. They have a ton of seniors so this is their year to make another run, but not in this game. They will win their conference anyway and do not need to rely on an at-large bid.

Amherst v Bowdoin- 2-0 This turns into a disastrous road trip for Bowdoin as they could match up with Amherst athletically but still do not have the size to defend every set piece Amherst will get.

Hamilton v Colby-  0-1 HUGE game for Nescac playoffs. For some reason I have this hunch Colby gets their first Nescac goal here and has a happy 9 hour journey back home.

[amh63]

Amherst beats Colby at home 2-0, scoring one goal in each of the periods.  Scoring being done by younger players these days.

[madzillagd]

Well for the second week in a row Eph football 'encouraged' me to watch Eph soccer and I was rewarded with a great game and I'm guessing one of the best goals of the year for the win.  I'm still not sure how Williams kept Gus Santos from scoring even after watching it, he's relentless with tremendous speed.  Tough one for Tufts to lose I'm sure, especially since they had the equalizer make it to the goalline before being saved. 

[Jump4Joy]

Five NESCACS in top 11 of NCAA regional rankings, 3 in top 5. If rankings hold, how many go to NCAAs from NESCAC? Other thoughts?
New England                           
1   Amherst      11-0-1   11-0-1           
2   Williams      9-0-2      9-0-2           
3   Brandeis      11-1-1   12-1-1           
4   ECSU              12-0-1   12-0-1           
5   Wesleyan (CT)   7-2-2      7-2-2           
6   Babson      11-3-1   11-3-1           
7   Tufts              6-2-3      6-2-3           
8   MIT              8-3-1      8-3-1           
9   Roger Williams   11-4-0   11-4-0           
10   Bowdoin      7-3-2      7-3-2           
11   UMass-Dart      10-3-0   10-3-0

[LaPaz]

Ahh with Tufts and Wesleyan losing yesterday...I would say Amherst and williams are definite locks and if they win out could host for a while. Bowdoin and Tufts need to win out until Nescac finals and could lose and get in. Wesleyan beats Amherst sat and wins a couple more they could get in. Everyone else is done unless they win it all! Highly unlikely

[LaPaz]

Sat Predictions:

Colby v Williams- 0-2   Colby still without a Nescac goal and have been eliminated. A disappointment in my mind as they could have finished 6th or 7th this year I thought. 11am start might catch Williams sleeping at first but they will wake up and get out of Waterville with a win. Colby will not find the net in this one and with nothing to play for it will be interesting to see if they come out and work hard and attack with nothing to lose or just give up and half ass it around the field. Last home game for seniors.

Midd v Bates- 3-0 Midd has struggled with Bates in the past, not this year. This Bates team is just plain awful, worse than last year even with the 2 Nescac ties. We will have to wait another year for a Bates league win I believe. Another 11am start and I do not see them getting up for this one. Important game for Midd for Nescac seeding.

Bowdoin v Trinity- 2-1 Trinity's 3rd trip to Maine. They have fallen from their decent start and I believe they are where they should be as I predicted in the begining of the year. Although , I thought they wouldnt even make the tournament. Big game for both teams for Nescac seeding and the hope to avoid Amherst and Williams in the first round. Bowdoin plays to well at home and are desperate to win after dropping a few lately.

Wesleyan v Amherst- 0-0 Wesleyan sits back in its 4-4-1-1 and clogs up the middle of the field. Amherst misses numerous chances to score and Purdy and the D have a big day. Wesleyan might get a chance or 2 on the counter but they really need to win this game to make a statement and keep a at-large alive. Big crowd here for sure and Amherst will not find this game easy.

Tufts v Hamilton- 2-0  Tufts needs to win 4 to 5 games in a row and get to Nescac finals to get an at-large I think after that awful loss to MIT. This game is a start and also they are playing for a home game in the first round which would be very helpful. Hamilton needs to win this game and get a Conn loss on Wednesday to get 8th place and have the honor of playing Amherst in the first round. Not happeneing as they fail to qualify for the Nescac tournament again.

[nescacsoccer]

Williams gets Colby in a spot I would not be envious of, playing with nothing to lose.  I just don't think they have the talent to do much with that freedom.  Williams 3-0.

Roughly the same story for this second game, just with a small talent gap.  Midd 2-0.

This is a really important game for each.  A home quarterfinal game is still possible for both Bowdoin and Trinity, especially in Bowdoin can knock off Tufts in the last week.  I think Bowdoin will win this game and keep the possibility of earning that game in their own hands. Bowdoin 1-0.

Wesleyan is going to park the bus in this one.  I expect Amherst almost all of the game to be played in front of Wesleyan's goal.  I actually think Amherst benefits from a team sitting in on them.  Even though they have talent to play I think the are more vulnerable to a team going at them.  You open yourself up to a big score, but the record over the last years seems to say Amherst will get a least one if you sit in and won't have to defend much.  Amherst 1-0

I think this will be a high scoring affair.  Both teams can score, and neither, particularly Hamilton, is stout defensively.  Hamilton has a lot to play for, win and they are in a good spot with Conn College finishing against Amherst.  I think they can do it. Hamilton 3-2.

[Jump4Joy]

amh63, nice meeting you today on a beautiful afternoon in New England. Sorry you didn't see Amherst win, but you did see Noon with a big goal to put the Jeffs ahead--albeit temporarily. I didn't think Wesleyan packed it in as much as folks imagined they might. They were dangerous on the counterattack. I'd give the edge to Amherst on the day (shots stats says so, too), but the Jeffs had a hard time finding that final ball. Wesleyan played with a lot of heart. Will the #1 seed for NESCACs come to a coin toss?

[amh63]

Jump4joy.....Ditto!  Did have a chance to chat a bit with Noon's family at the half.  Met them almost 4 years ago in York Pa.  Did not see you last year when the women's team played JHU at Messiah.  May same hello at Homecoming in Nov.