NESCAC

[Mr.Right]

Trinity looks to have both Savonen and Bednarek back for their senior years. That is good news for Trinity fans. They have a ton of frosh as usual and Pilger will be making massive substitutions but the big question mark has to be who will be in central midfield and can Trinity find a safe and reliable GK and solid defense which i imagine Bednarek will be leading unless he plays defensive central midfield.

[blooter442]

Just had a quick look at the lineups for the Tufts versus Babson game which is supposed to start in 10 mins. It does not appear that Tufts is playing with a recognized striker, Tasker was the most offensive player I saw. That said, I haven't checked their roster, so maybe folks have moved around positions  or they have some new young guy up top. From what I know, I don't think any of the guys returning this year are in the same class as Majumder or Becherano. On the flip side, I can't see Babson scoring a ton of goals, as they haven't been a very dynamic offense side for the past few years, although they did score 3 in 2 straight games this weekend, so perhaps that is changing. Still, I'm going 2-1 Jumbos.

[blooter442]

Tufts-Babson 0-0 at half. Stream isn't up so following the stats, but seems the Jumbos are shading an even battle without many chances. Lots of fouls and subs. I suspect we might see some goals in the second half as the game opens up.

[Mr.Right]

Midd takes a 1-0 lead on Norwich late in the 1st Half off a foul outside the box / set piece / Header goal...Some things just never change.

Norwich has actually held its own for the majority of the 1st half and they work hard(expected from a military academy) and Middlebury did not look particularly good before the goal. Midd will win this game 2-0 or 3-0....

[blooter442]

About 20 left in the second half and it's still 0-0 between Babson and Tufts. Jumbos bossing shots and SOG 9-2 and 6-1 but can't solve Takami. Can't speak to the quality of the chances since I'm going off the stats, but I cannot see Babson winning this game based on what's gone on so far — and if the Beavers do win, it'll be a smash-and-grab victory.

[blooter442]

Tufts-Babson headed to OT. Jumbos bossing shots and SOG by multiples of 7 (14-2 and 7-1, respectively.)

[cac.aholic1]

Did we do predictions? Predictions anyone? Don't tell me I missed them!

Well, mine are the only ones that matter anyways. I was originally planning on writing up a bit on each team and giving a regular season final prediction, but due to time constraints, I've focused on three teams, tried to write a bit for the rest, and grouped everyone by category. Hopefully before Saturday I'll have a chance to fill out the rest of the league in more detail. Here goes:

Group 1: The Favourite - Not much needs to be said here. This team should finish no lower than 2nd in the league and will feel disappointed without either a NESCAC title or a run to at least NCAA quarters. Expectations could not be higher for...
Tufts: The Jumbos have cemented themselves as perennial NESCAC, and to some extent national, powerhouses. Shapiro is an excellent coach, playing a well-defined style that makes it easy for players to step up year after year. He's obviously a great recruiter as well, and has brought in a lot of talent. Along with Kevin Halliday, look out for sophomore Gavin Tasker, who looked dangerous for most of last year but didn't put up that many points. There's concern over the loss of celebrated goalkeeper Greenwood who yours truly believes was good but overrated. That said, I didn't have the chance to watch many of their NCAA games where he apparently was at his best. But Tufts fans shouldn't be too worried - they add Freshman GK Will Harned out of a successful Beachside academy program. A quick glance at his old highlight tape shows a keeper with good size, positioning, and confidence, and solid technique for his age. I would be unsurprised to see him win the starting job at some point. Biggest question for me is cb pairing - the rest should figure itself out. A quick shoutout to junior Sterling Weatherbie for being my favorite D3 soccer name.

Group 2: The Contenders - I wouldn't be surprised to see either of these teams host the NESCAC regular season crown. But they couldn't care less about that - they've got just as good as a chance as Tufts at the real silverware, the NESCAC championship. Both these teams will look to pick up their 3rd conference championship in 5 years, but there are some questions about both.
Amherst: The big bad wolves of the NESCAC lose cb Bean, cm/tree Orozco, speed threat Martin, quality from Sood+ Aoyama+ Lenhard, and goalscoring midfielder Ciambella. That's a lot of talent gone from the returning NESCAC champions. There is absolutely no way they fall out the top 4 - Serpone is too good at running his system, and I'd expect at least 2 freshman to step up into main roles along with 2-3 more returners. I'd say they could fall out of top 3, but it seems highly unlikely unless one of Williams/Midd/Hamilton massively outperforms my expectation. The key players going forward will be returners Hlinomaz, Nyugen, and likely a freshman. I don't see the first two carrying the weight of the players they've lost. But I wouldn't worry too much about that - they'll bring in some trees maybe 6'5 fitzgerald and get the goals they need on set pieces. The big worry for me at Amherst is losing key defenders and Orozco in the midfield. I would expect Serpone to have a plan to replace them, but it's a big ask. Compounded with the fact that the goalie situation looked not-too-solid at times last year, and it's a real worry. Can they win NESCAC - yes. Are they the second-most likely to? - almost certainly. Will they dominate most of the league like they have in previous years - no.

Bowdoin: Popular pick to have a good year. Return all-around cm star and leading goalscorer Niang, who was the league's best offensive header of the ball last year. Van Siclen's return gives them the best keeper in the league, and Ward has been class throughout his career. The team loses 4-year starter and workhorse Dias Costa in the midfield, big body Charlier up top, and utility player Downing. Look for senior Ellsworth, tricky and creative on the ball, to step into a bigger attacking role. Junior Morant has quality and size, and should see an increased attacking role as well. The Bubb-Ward cb pairing was solid last year, but will need to be a bit better for the Polar Bears to become a top 4 team. But this team was a rather unfortunate OG from the NESCAC finals last year, and haven't lost all that much. Wiercisnki is a very good defensive coach, and though his team doesn't play pretty, they've had a fair bit of success. How many teams could boast a 3W 1D 0L record against Tufts over the past two years? This team will be athletic, defensively excellent, and probably the biggest set-piece threat in the league. If they can learn to find goals from open play, don't have their usual slow start, and see good years from 3/4 of Morant/Ellsworth, Bubb, Ward, and Stenquist, they should take the step and finally be a top 3 team no problem.

Group 4: The Question Marks - Stranger things have happened than one of these teams lifting the NESCAC finals trophy. 2014 and 2015 Bowdoin would have found itself in this group. But the teams here are unproven, young, and have major question marks going into the season. 2 have lost enough senior talent that the teams themselves are largely unknown. One was a surprising young upstart from last season that will look to continue to impress. One of these teams will host a first-round NESCAC game, and two wouldn't be overly surprising. If any of these teams can get a couple star freshman and see a couple veterans step up, they could easily take the step up to become contenders.
Hamilton: The darling underdogs of NESCAC 2016 return for the new season - older, wiser, and hopefully with a better goalkeeper. The lack of a quality netminder to organize and control their defensive area was a major flaw for Hamilton last year. Current soph Cadwell, a tall young man at 6'4, won the job late in the season and appears to have kept it (he gave up all three goals in tonight's draw to SUNY Oswego). I never had the chance to see him play, and I can't get last year's statistics to load so I can see how he did and against what competition. They also bring in 6'3 freshman Watkins. This team will be good regardless - the bring back young stars Morris, Wood, and another attacker whose name I forget. More importantly, they bring back a very impressive hustle, will to win, and athleticism that will help them compete and see them likely finish in the 4-6 range. But at tourney time, they will believe in themselves and be very dangerous. If they can add a little more talent, guile, and identity to last year's team, they could step up to the contenders tier.

Williams: This team lost a ton of seniors, and whether they can replace them is not a question I can answer at this time. My guess is - kind of. Another recruiting class for Sullivan will help him mold the team to his liking, but they'll take time to mesh, and Sullivan hasn't really proven himself as a coach yet. This young Williams team I expect to be more physical in the midfield and creative but more direct offensively. The questions surround the lack of pace in the back line, the replacement in goal creation left by the numerous departing seniors, and the heir to Alcorn's surprisingly great year in goal. Also what style they'll play - last year Williams didn't have the defensive solidness of Bowdoin, the overbearing pressing and physicality of Amherst, the size and speed of Middlebury, or the pretty passing and solid defending of Tufts. This team has more questions than answers, but they are a historically successful program with a young, historically successful coach, and some quality returners. I see them as likely 5-6 finishers.

Middlebury: This team is in a very similar situation to Williams, having lost 4 of the best players in the league. It remains to be seen what is left behind and what freshman are brought in, but I think they'll be better off than Williams. I'm a big fan of O'Grady and Goulart, and I see they've brought in some large freshman. There's a big talent gap to be filled, but I think the two vets can carry the offensive load. Combined with their normal solid defending, the carpet at home, and set piece goals, I think they're in for a 3-5 place finish, likely fighting with Hamilton and Bowdoin for those spots. Depending on what kind of talent they bring in from the bench and freshmen, particularly up top, in goal, and at cb, they could be a real threat come tournament time.

Group 5: One of These Teams Won't Make Playoffs-These teams have some good pieces, but it would be a major surprise if they could pull a 2016 Hamilton and come out of nowhere as real competitors.
Trinity: Loses Gimand, the main man in midfield. Also big striker Milbury up top. This team is consistently inconsistent, but I don't see them putting it together this year. I'd expect a good year from Savonen, and they might push top 5, but they've never shown the cohesiveness and defense necessary to do better. Don't see any reason for that to change but you never know.

Welseyan: Highest ceiling of the teams here. Honestly they could finish anywhere from 3-10, and anywhere 4-10 wouldn't surprise me. Cowie-Haskell and Komar are fantastic offensive talents, and Wheeler's sides are usually well-organized defensively and competent passers going forward. They've lack a good netminder and a defensive presence outside of Gruner. Losing him could see them really struggle on the backend unless they get major contributions from freshman or veterans step up out of nowhere. Regardless, Wheeler's team has come up with quite a few surprises recently, and they could be a nice big banana peel in the first round of NESCACs.

Conn: Losing Pat Devlin is a big blow to this team, as well as to the league overall. He was an offensive force and all-around player like few other in recent memory (NPL I'd say is the other main one, Rashid pre-ACLs). Replacing his offensive threat will be hard, but they have a couple other quality players like the underrated Manoogian, the big man Lockwood, and ... not really sure who the last pieces are. Maybe Dieng, maybe yao. Maybe Butera. This team needs another mid/attacking piece and a big dose of defensive discipline to be competitive, but I can't see them turning it around too much. Like Trinity, they have a good striker and a couple other class players, but will struggle elsewhere and defensively. Looks to be a rebuilding year at Conn, but who knows -- Murphy has had decent success finding impact freshman in the past, and they could potentially add enough pieces to move up to the 4-6 range. More likely, they'll find themselves in the 6-9 spots.

Group 6: Relegation Candidates-We keep waiting for these teams to improve, but so far it just hasn't been there. Neither looks ready to turn the corner this year, though Colby seems slightly better poised after bringing in a big freshman class last year. The CBB championship will be fun as always, but only one Maine team should be in the top 8 at the end of the year.
Bates: Losing Knoth, their best attacker and goalscorer, and Martell, a leader and decent defender, is tough. Maybe Opoku can find some spark, and Merchant looks to be their best bet to bag goals. But I don't have much to say here. They've been rebuilding for years and don't show much signs of improvement.

Colby: The Camels, on the other hand, have cause for hope. They return a whole bunch of freshmen, and with Aoyama providing the spark next to the Tower, they've got a little more of a threat going forward than 1-dimensional bates. They also showed an ability to defend at times, giving up only 1 goal against Tufts and Amherst while shutting out Mid. They best bet is to get more consistent defensively and milk their home field up in Waterville for every point it's worth. I can see this team squeaking into NESCACs over lackluster Trinity/Conn teams, but it's less than likely. They're still very young and lacking talent, but some promise is there. I think they'll play some very entertaining games this year, mainly against Bowdoin, Bates, and maybe Trinity. But Seabrook is still a year or two away from pushing into the next category.

[blooter442]

Well, that didn't take long — Tufts wins it 39 seconds into OT, Tasker with the goal.

[blooter442]

Seems like a deserved win for Tufts, who bossed every statistical category. The Jumbos took a while to get into the game, but, once they got going, they really started to turn the screw, particularly in the second half. I am curious to see what Johnson is capable of when tested — perhaps Greenwood might not be missed as much as previously thought.

As for the Beavers, they won their first two games, but, despite parking the bus well through regulation, their resistance eventually broke in OT as I thought it might. As previously mentioned, the SLU result was a good one, but I think Tufts was a totally different proposition, particularly away from home on turf. I'd still venture to say Babson is capable of getting a result at Brandeis on Saturday, but — after suffering an opening loss while watching the Beavers start 2-0 — I think the Judges will be encouraged by the result tonight (suggesting the Beavers aren't infallible away from home).

[Ommadawn]

It does not appear that Tufts is playing with a recognized striker, Tasker was the most offensive player I saw.

Great call, Blooter!  "Tasker. 8-ball. Side pocket."

[blooter442]

Great call, Blooter!  "Tasker. 8-ball. Side pocket."

I had a gut feeling he'd score. I wish I could say I called it...buuuuut I can't. 

[oldonionbag]

Was anyone able to get to any of the opening games? I'm surprised Tufts didn't stream its game...you know being the defending champs and all!

[nescac1]

Holy cow, what a goal! 

https://twitter.com/MiddAthletics/status/905756298746236929

[blooter442]

Was anyone able to get to any of the opening games? I'm surprised Tufts didn't stream its game...you know being the defending champs and all!

My guess is Tufts' stream was cancelled because of the weather. When it is raining, a lot of times places will cancel their live stream for fear of ruining their camera and equipment.

[Mr.Right]

Holy cow, what a goal! 

https://twitter.com/MiddAthletics/status/905756298746236929

I like the kid from Geneva College and was posted in another threads goal way better but still a nice goal for sure.