NESCAC

[SlideTackle]

Here's the DA best XI from two years ago....one of these is not like the other. 
U-18/19 Best XI Eastern Conference
GOALKEEPER: Justin Garces (Atlanta United FC) UCLA
DEFENDERS: James Sands (New York City FC) PRO NYCFC, Kwaku Owusu (New York City FC) PRO NYCFC, Prince Loney-Bailey (New England Revolution) JMU, Will Crain (Atlanta United FC) Brown University
MIDFIELDERS: JP Marin (New York Red Bulls)Seton Hall, Allen Seals (Orlando City SC) NC State, Simon Becher (Oakwood SC) St. Louis University
FORWARDS: German Giammattei (Kendall SC) Amherst College, Daniel Steedman (Charlotte Soccer Academy) UVA , Christian Sorto (Baltimore Armour) PRO Loudoun United

Yep.  I recall that Giammattei was one of the leading DA scorers that year with over 30 goals.  Always wondered why he chose the Amherst route.  He "committed" to Amherst his junior year and I suspect had other choices where he would have been a true commit in his junior year.  He may have simply preferred the program and the academics are top notch.  Would love to know the answer.

[blooter442]

Yep.  I recall that Giammattei was one of the leading DA scorers that year with over 30 goals.  Always wondered why he chose the Amherst route.  He "committed" to Amherst his junior year and I suspect had other choices where he would have been a true commit in his junior year.  He may have simply preferred the program and the academics are top notch.  Would love to know the answer.

I just remember Mr.Right talking very highly about him the summer before he arrived. I had no background knowledge but figured he had to be solid. Saw him play a couple of times last year — I thought he was solid but appeared to be still adapting to the physical demands and speed of the league; the Tufts CBs gave him no time and he looked a bit fish-out-of-water in both Jumbo games. This year, he has very much adapted in both senses, but I think what's improved most is his finishing: last year, 7 goals (3 conference) on 78 shots (.090 shot pct.); this year, 20 goals (14 conference!) on 80 shots (.250 shot pct.)...and the latter is just to this point! I suppose I can see why people think he might be the best player in the conference in the last decade.

[Christan Shirk]

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Amherst	14-0-2	0.582	4-0-2	14-0-2	1
2.	Tufts	12-2-2	0.595	6-2-0	12-2-2	2
3.	Connecticut College	10-3-3	0.603	3-3-3	10-3-3	3
4.	Williams	8-3-5	0.580	4-3-2	8-3-5	6
5.	WPI	11-2-4	0.576	1-1-3	11-2-4	8
6.	Middlebury	7-2-7	0.614	1-2-4	7-2-7	4
7.	Babson	12-5-2	0.557	2-5-1	12-5-2	7
8.	Brandeis	9-5-4	0.581	1-4-1	9-5-4	5
9.	Endicott	11-5-2	0.545	1-3-0	11-5-2	11
10.	Bates	9-6-1	0.565	1-5-0	9-6-1	9
11.	Eastern Connecticut	16-2-0	0.493	3-1-0	16-2-0	12
12.	Keene State	13-6-0	0.540	0-3-0	13-6-0	10

[Bucket]

NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Amherst	14-0-2	0.582	4-0-2	14-0-2	1
2.	Tufts	12-2-2	0.595	6-2-0	12-2-2	2
3.	Connecticut College	10-3-3	0.603	3-3-3	10-3-3	3
4.	Williams	8-3-5	0.580	4-3-2	8-3-5	6
5.	WPI	11-2-4	0.576	1-1-3	11-2-4	8
6.	Middlebury	7-2-7	0.614	1-2-4	7-2-7	4
7.	Babson	12-5-2	0.557	2-5-1	12-5-2	7
8.	Brandeis	9-5-4	0.581	1-4-1	9-5-4	5
9.	Endicott	11-5-2	0.545	1-3-0	11-5-2	11
10.	Bates	9-6-1	0.565	1-5-0	9-6-1	9
11.	Eastern Connecticut	16-2-0	0.493	3-1-0	16-2-0	12
12.	Keene State	13-6-0	0.540	0-3-0	13-6-0	10

Wow. As I wrote earlier, I didn't expect Midd to jump over Conn, but I'm surprised that the Panthers dropped two spots while the Camels held steady at 3. And not surprised to see Williams move up with their win, but do they deserve to be two places ahead of Midd? They have one more win, while Midd's SOS is stronger. I guess the tiebreaker is the R-v-R, with 4 Eph wins vs. 1 for Midd. I guess I answered my own question. Heh.

The way this is looking Midd needs an outright win on Saturday, and not a tie, to have a shot at a Pool C. And even then, that might not be enough. Panthers might be Pool A robust.

[Mr.Right]

Two key Nescac Semi's this weekend....

Tufts v Williams(at Amherst)----Both teams are playing well right now. Tufts has gone 4-0-0 and scored 9 Goals in their last 4 games. I have not seen Tufts since the Amherst game but it looks like Shapiro has settled on a backline of Daly, Stern, Raphael and Paoletta. Paoletta is a stud CB that any team would want to put out fires back there. Daly is a solid 1v1 back who played well as a Frosh last year. Raphael was a highly touted recruit out of Andover but is still only a Soph who makes some mistakes that can be pounced on. I gotta be honest I do not remember Stern at all but I guess he has been waiting and putting the time in for 3 years and now has earned his chance. Coaches love these types that are still battling away as Seniors even though they have been rotting on the bench and  have not played for 3 years.   Most kids quit by the time they are Seniors if they are not playing wanting to do other fun extracurricular s. Id be willing to bet someone more talented is sitting on the bench but Shapiro rewarded the hard work put in by Stern. If Shapiro noticed the hard work than surely Stern's teammates did as well.  If Shapiro had not rewarded him and instead started some Frosh I would guess his Seniors would view this negatively and the whole thing could of snowballed..Ok I went way farther into that then I wanted to but good on Stern...Midfield is Van Brewer, Rojas and Aroh sitting. Lane and Tasker wide with Braun up top. Solid lineup with not many holes for Williams to exploit. I am guessing Tufts is in its usual lineup but I have not seen them play so maybe the personnel has been moved around.

Williams just dominated Bates last Saturday. Tufts is a different animal than Bates though. Sullivan has also settled on a solid 11. Funny how Coaches stick to lineups when things are going well. Veteran Andrew Mathew is at RB with another SR Liam Bardong at CB. The other CB is Soph Jaime Holland and LB is local kid Brady Foehl. Mathew is a solid 1v1 defender with decent speed but can get caught ballwatching. Bardong is the unquestioned leader back thee and he needs to be. Williams biggest weakness to me right now is with the inexperienced Holland at CB. Bardong did a solid job last Saturday at hiding Holland's lack of pace and positioning in that game. Holland is a big boy and good in the air but he will need to play much more aggressive this weekend if Williams wants to advance. He and Bardong will have their hands full with Braun up top which should attract Oberg who will be sitting to help out and in turn could free up Tufts wide guys if they cut in and/or Rojas and Van Brewer. Foehl has played well and his pretty quick with skill and will not be intimidated by Lane. Williams midfield has been the difference in play the last few weeks. Oberg sitting is a dream as he is a fine defender but also can hit pin point balls with accuracy as if pulling the strings but from 30 yards away. He switches fields on a dime and with precision which in turn as given Williams some great counters. It is not just Oberg though as Nick Boardman and the veteran Fleischer, who hit just a nasty ball to Fabricant to give Williams a 1-0 lead last Saturday are both driving at opposing teams defenses unafraid. Will they continue to do that this weekend? Williams fortunes will rest in their midfield duel with Tufts and whether their strikers can continue to finish. Gass has been playing well all season and his speed will cause Tufts some problems but I have a feeling Paoletta will shut down Gass all game. That means Williams Senior striker Bobby Fabricant might get some looks. Fabricants goal was unreal as he took a 0 yard ball of his instep and ripped it home. It took some athletic maneuvering to get that goal. He must play more physical this weekend though and stick his nose where he usually does not. Same goes for Gass. Felito has no problem with that but he is just not a polished finisher yet.

My heart says Williams and my head says Tufts. I will go with heart whenever I have no money on a match 100% of the time....Williams 2-1 OT

[Mr.Right]

Midd at Amherst------Midd has made a couple changes to its lineup in the past few games. Last Saturday, at Conn Brandon Reid came off the bench in favor of LaBranche(another 6'3 striker) and holder Raffi Barsamian looks to be working his way back into the lineup. Midd has 2 legit CB's in Aidan Robinson and Mike McFarlane as they are big and physical and will body up Amherst attackers and adding in wingback Jack Spirdellis who is 6'2 and Midd can handle anything Amherst throws at them in the air. Frosh GK  Ryan Grady is 6'3 and has played well all year. Last time I saw Midd, Davis Oudet was playing LB. He quick and works hard but not a good defender IMO. Spiridellis is also not the most skilled so look for Amherst to press him when the ball is at his feet. At Home, Midd will try to play a little but tomorrow I bet both teams will be trying to hit some balls over the top to let their strikers run onto. Wilhelm must be sitting and then some combination of Potter and Goulart maybe wide or Sloan has gone wide and one of them as moved into the middle? Not sure but Midd's two CB's have a combined 1 goal all year. They are due for a header off a set piece...

[Timmy Two Wheels]

Thanks for that great in depth analysis as always Mr. Right.

And now the moment you've all been waiting for. Here are Timmy Two Wheel's hypothetical sports book NESCAC playoff betting lines.

1) Amherst vs Middlebury. (AMH -0.5, O/U 1.5)

3 Quick prop bets:
- TOTAL game Yellow Cards (O/U 3.5)
- Amherst assistant coach Derek Shea wears XXXL black windpants and jacket, finally completing the full transformation to look exactly like Coach Serpone (+180)
- Goulart stepovers (O/U 26.5) [the over missed slightly last week... he had 28 by my count]

2) Tufts vs Williams (TUF -1.5, O/U 4.5)

4 Quick Prop Bets:
- d4Pace + Mr. Right posts throughout the game (O/U 6.5)
- Tufts PK misses (O/U 0.5)
- Williams' Oberg read's Mr. Right's analysis, tries to ping a 30 yard diagonal, Tasker intercepts and scores (-110).
- Davis saves (O/U 3.5)


Should be a great weekend of soccer.

Weather looking to be a cold 39 degrees all day.

Timmy's Picks:
AMH 2-1
TUF 4-2

[d4_Pace]

Amherst (-0.5) and the over. Amherst 2-0.
Tufts (-1.5) and the under.  Tufts 3-1

Obviously biased but a tufts-Amherst final would the first time the two top teams make the final in recent memory and would be an absolute battle

[maineman]

Will the Midd win over Amherst, even if they lose or tie tomorrow, likely move them ahead of Conn College and WPI in the rankings?

[Bucket]

Will the Midd win over Amherst, even if they lose or tie tomorrow, likely move them ahead of Conn College and WPI in the rankings?

I'm not sure Panthers jump from 6 to 3 in the region with a win and a loss. Midd might just need to win the whole thing. Or at least send tomorrow's final to PK, thus registering a tie in the rankings.

[maineman]

Will the Midd win over Amherst, even if they lose or tie tomorrow, likely move them ahead of Conn College and WPI in the rankings?

I'm not sure Panthers jump from 6 to 3 in the region with a win and a loss. Midd might just need to win the whole thing. Or at least send tomorrow's final to PK, thus registering a tie in the rankings.

With the Williams loss, maybe they can move ahead of them?  They would have the same amount of wins, 1 fewer losses and a stronger SOS.  Williams RvR record is still better.

[Middlebury Dad]

The real question is why was Conn three spots above Midd in the first place when they played Midd twice and came away with a loss and a tie.  Midd now has a win and a tie vs #1 team in the country and region, an OT loss at regional #2, a win and a tie vs #3, and ties vs #4 and #5.

[PaulNewman]

The real question is why was Conn three spots above Midd in the first place when they played Midd twice and came away with a loss and a tie.  Midd now has a win and a tie vs #1 team in the country and region, an OT loss at regional #2, a win and a tie vs #3, and ties vs #4 and #5.

Because head to head is only one variable among three other major criteria variables and the national rankings are irrelevant.  As for  just the regional rankings, would you argue that Midd should be ahead of Amherst based on the 1-0-1 head to head advantage?

At any rate, I think Midd and Williams have done enough to secure bids on Monday regardless of Midd's result with Tufts.

[d4_Pace]

@middleburydad. It's because you have won less than half your games. An OT loss against a good team does nothing for you. Ties against good teams do very little for you. At the end of the day you have to win games. In soccer two ties is worse than a loss and win.

[Bucket]

The real question is why was Conn three spots above Midd in the first place when they played Midd twice and came away with a loss and a tie.  Midd now has a win and a tie vs #1 team in the country and region, an OT loss at regional #2, a win and a tie vs #3, and ties vs #4 and #5.

I tried to explain this a few weeks back. Most of what you mention is not part of the ranking criteria. Regional and national committees have strict criteria by which to rank teams—mainly winning percentage, strength of schedule, record vs regional opponents.  How close a game is is irrelevant: An overtime loss to Tufts counts the same as a 10-0 drubbing. Also, whether you beat the number 1 ranked team in the region or the number 12 ranked team, there's no difference in the committee's eyes. It's a win against a ranked opponent; wins aren't weighted depending on the opponent's rank (if they are ranked). So, while we know how impressive it is that Midd beat and tied Amherst, it's no different than if they had beaten and tied Bates.

As I pointed out earlier this week, I was surprised that Conn was 3 spots ahead, yet they deserved to be ahead based on the criteria. Now, today's win strengthens Midd's record and adds a win to the weakest variable for the Panthers: record vs ranked opponents. This should move Midd up a bit in the rankings, though will the Panthers leapfrog all three of Conn, Williams and WPI? Maybe not, but hopefully the Panthers don't have to do so and that all get selected.

Or, Midd can just go ahead and win the whole thing.