NESCAC

[Bucket]

The final week of the season and the Nescac table is tight.

Middlebury stands in 1st place while Amherst/Tufts are 1 point behind, and CC in 4th 2 points behind Midd.
Midd has two difficult games to end the season vs Tufts and Williams. Tufts with Midd/Bowdoin to end the season.

Projected final 8:
1. Amherst 23pts (6 points between Bates/Trinity)
2. Middlebury 22pts (4 pts vs Tufts/Williams)
3. Conn College 22pts (6 pts vs Bates and Wes)
4. Tufts 21pts (4 pts vs Midd/Bowdoin)
5. Bowdoin 18pts (6 points in last 3 games)
6. Williams
7. Hamilton
8. Wesleyan

Great first post and welcome!
Alternate reality
1) Amherst 23
2) Tufts 23
3) Conn 22
4) Midd 21

Tufts are rounding into form and Enmore cat is lucky he got them early in the year. Can't wait for a potential rematch although knowing the NESCAC the odds of the both making it to the finals of the conference tourney are about zero. So I guess we'll have to settle for a NCAA rematch a la 2018 and 2019.

This post from our Tufts physician alum who scored from his right back position in a national semi in his frosh season obviously exudes a little gamesmanship.  That said, the post also reflects part of what makes Tufts such a formidable foe.  Under Shapiro and with the help of a run only matched by Messiah in modern times, Tufts built a culture so strong that it always was going to have a chance to continue thriving post-Shapiro.  You know a program is a great one when getting knocked out in the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 is considered a major disappointment.

As great as Amherst has been over the past 15 or so years -- and the Mammoths have been great by any measure -- Amherst over the past 8-10 years has played second fiddle to Tufts, even though Amherst has had multiple Final Four and national final appearances during that same span.  For the Tufts program and its players, a new year or where they may be predicted to finish in NESCAC, is pretty irrelevant to them and their overall psyche.  The Jumbos don't think they can win, or can win if they play really well, or have a 50/50 chance against a team as good or allegedly better....no, instead, they enter every game believing they should and will win.  It may not seem like that big of a deal, but that level of confidence, only enjoyed by the rarest of programs (think Messiah, Tufts, and maybe Amherst and Calvin), is a huge advantage.  Of course having really good teams also really helps, and helps make your program a destination program for attractive recruits.

I do think this is a big year for Dezotell.  He stepped into a job that in many ways was ideal and one of the very best in the country while also being impossible (in the sense of hoping to even come close to duplicating what Shapiro did).  The list of programs/coaches who have won three out out of four and four out of six national titles is short...like really, really short.

I love the Tufts at Middlebury match on our doorstep.  I ranked Midd #2 in the country this week, and I do believe that Midd believes "this is our year."  However, Midd is one of those teams I hinted at above that knows they can win and definitely believes they have as good a chance as anyone if they play up to or very close to their capability.  But the Panthers don't yet have the "we absolutely will win this game" mentality.  You get there by breaking through barriers...and this Tufts game is a chance to get a little closer to that mentality.  If Midd loses, they will still be confident and still consider themselves top tier national contenders, but they won't have the extreme confidence level of, let's say, Messiah, Tufts, and Amherst.  Tufts on the other hand could lose Saturday, and even end up 4th or 5th in NESCAC, and there will be little impact on how they fancy their chances in the NCAA tournament.

So, until proven otherwise....Tufts 2, Midd 1.

Will be plenty of drama in Middlebury on Saturday. The former Middlebury great Kyle Dezotell and his Jumbos roll into Midd, playing as well as any team in the country—and hoping to give the Panthers their first loss of the season.

And not only will it be senior day for the Panthers, but also a celebration of retired Midd coaching legend Dave Saward, who will be inducted into Midd's Hall of Fame this Fall. I know the players don't care about this, but old folks like me do. And what a wild moment for Dezotell—a very touching moment seeing his former coach and mentor being honored in such a fashion, and then game face.

[FanofNescac]

I watched most of Midd vs Conn Coll video...and I thought the teams were very even and that the play for the most part was even.  I would slightly disagree with CSO about Midd being a bit unlucky on the Conn goal.  Grady indeed made a incredible save that very, very few GKs would have gotten a hand on, much less saved.  It was a well-struck ball ticketed for the just inside the right post.  Great save, and as CSO noted, Conn perhaps was fortunate to have a guy right there to knock it in.

What impresses about Conn and especially Coach Burk is that they do not panic.  They were down 1-0 fairly late to Amherst and prevailed 2-1.  Midd was up 1-0 and Conn managed to equalize.  Burk has Conn back to where they were 2 years ago.  I don't know how long Jaran is out (and he was out for a big portion of last season), but would definitely hurt if he isn't available for the post-season.  Conn does have multiple offensive weapons....maybe not one as outstanding as the very top offensive players in the conference but as a group they may be as good as any. 

Midd is very, very good...and solid across the board.  Obviously Midd's defense is stout, led by one of the top GKs in the country.  I do wonder if Midd is short another high level offensive threat.  Losing St Louis would be devastating....so like always injuries and avoiding major injuries will play a large role in who emerges in the the post-season.

I agree, I think it was a very even game. Both teams had good chances to score and the freekick goal from Midd was exceptional. I will say that Midd looks extremely dangerous on corner kicks so that will serve them well in postseason play. Saint Louis has the majority of the Panthers points so he will need to stay healthy.

I am very impressed with Conn too. Creus and Scoffone are two players who can create something out of nothing. Also, freshman Miles has the most minutes on the team

I think you can make a case for any of the Top 4 teams right now. It is a very even season and the Top 4 + Bowdoin all have a legitimate chance to make a deep run in NCAAs. Williams hasn't been getting the results they want, but they are always a tough team, and I can see them prevailing on the road in the nescac quarter final.

[camosfan]

agree with your point on Williams, if they make it to the knockout stage anything can happen, because their defense is quite sturdy.

[Bucket]

I watched most of Midd vs Conn Coll video...and I thought the teams were very even and that the play for the most part was even.  I would slightly disagree with CSO about Midd being a bit unlucky on the Conn goal.  Grady indeed made a incredible save that very, very few GKs would have gotten a hand on, much less saved.  It was a well-struck ball ticketed for the just inside the right post.  Great save, and as CSO noted, Conn perhaps was fortunate to have a guy right there to knock it in.

What impresses about Conn and especially Coach Burk is that they do not panic.  They were down 1-0 fairly late to Amherst and prevailed 2-1.  Midd was up 1-0 and Conn managed to equalize.  Burk has Conn back to where they were 2 years ago.  I don't know how long Jaran is out (and he was out for a big portion of last season), but would definitely hurt if he isn't available for the post-season.  Conn does have multiple offensive weapons....maybe not one as outstanding as the very top offensive players in the conference but as a group they may be as good as any. 

Midd is very, very good...and solid across the board.  Obviously Midd's defense is stout, led by one of the top GKs in the country.  I do wonder if Midd is short another high level offensive threat.  Losing St Louis would be devastating....so like always injuries and avoiding major injuries will play a large role in who emerges in the the post-season.

Terrific assessment of Conn and Midd; mirrors my view. Avoiding major injuries is, obviously, huge. The Panthers have been able to weather the loss of midfielder Farrell—such a high energy performer, and next to impossible to replace 1 for 1—to a torn ACL, largely by relying on a couple of stellar freshman contributors. But at this time of year, depth gets tested.

[PaulNewman]

Welcome FanofNescac....and yes, I bet you're thinking of the same play I am when on first blush it looked like St Louis scored directly off a corner to put Midd back on top.  Tremendous player.  Like I hinted at, though, I'm not clear on who the other danger men are for Midd in terms of posing serious problems for high level opponents.  Amherst has several, Conn has several to a handful, Bowdoin appears to have several.  Tufts seems more like Conn in terms of having a group that is dangerous without any one or two obvious standouts.

I get the senae that a couple of draws has folks downgrading Bowdoin just a bit in comparison with the rest of the top five.  The Polar Bears have a big game with Colby that they really need to win, for confidence as much as anything but also for seeding.  That said, I would strongly resist any impulse to to view Bowdoin as outside the top contender group.  I really like the quartet of Rueda Duran, Huck, Cabral, and Juantorena.

[PaulNewman]

Bucket, it is really unfortunate how often these athletes in the prime of their late adolescence/early adulthood tear ACLs.

You would think in 2023 we would have found ways to avoid these devastating injuries and also have progressed to surgical techniques that don't require 10-12 months of rehab time.

I'm sure we don't hear about every injury, but sure seems like these injuries happen too often to some of the most key players.  Kenyon's ceiling automatically became compressed with the loss of their dynamic center mid.  And I'm sure a number of teams are dealing with similar setbacks.

[soccerpapa]

Being a physical therapist there are ACL prevention type strengthening/balance activity that can decrease risk of these injuries however with the compressed season time is limited and unfortunately not a focus.   

As far as the 10-12 month rehab from these injuries - surgical technique and rehab is getting better and lowering that time frame but their is a ceiling with regards to what the body needs to heal.  If there is any doubt in this statement look no further than Jerry Rice.  Came back in "record time" from ACL and immediate reinjury.....It is much worse on the womens side of the game.

[d4_Pace]

The final week of the season and the Nescac table is tight.

Middlebury stands in 1st place while Amherst/Tufts are 1 point behind, and CC in 4th 2 points behind Midd.
Midd has two difficult games to end the season vs Tufts and Williams. Tufts with Midd/Bowdoin to end the season.

Projected final 8:
1. Amherst 23pts (6 points between Bates/Trinity)
2. Middlebury 22pts (4 pts vs Tufts/Williams)
3. Conn College 22pts (6 pts vs Bates and Wes)
4. Tufts 21pts (4 pts vs Midd/Bowdoin)
5. Bowdoin 18pts (6 points in last 3 games)
6. Williams
7. Hamilton
8. Wesleyan

Great first post and welcome!
Alternate reality
1) Amherst 23
2) Tufts 23
3) Conn 22
4) Midd 21

Tufts are rounding into form and Enmore cat is lucky he got them early in the year. Can't wait for a potential rematch although knowing the NESCAC the odds of the both making it to the finals of the conference tourney are about zero. So I guess we'll have to settle for a NCAA rematch a la 2018 and 2019.

This post from our Tufts physician alum who scored from his right back position in a national semi in his frosh season obviously exudes a little gamesmanship.  That said, the post also reflects part of what makes Tufts such a formidable foe.  Under Shapiro and with the help of a run only matched by Messiah in modern times, Tufts built a culture so strong that it always was going to have a chance to continue thriving post-Shapiro.  You know a program is a great one when getting knocked out in the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 is considered a major disappointment.

As great as Amherst has been over the past 15 or so years -- and the Mammoths have been great by any measure -- Amherst over the past 8-10 years has played second fiddle to Tufts, even though Amherst has had multiple Final Four and national final appearances during that same span.  For the Tufts program and its players, a new year or where they may be predicted to finish in NESCAC, is pretty irrelevant to them and their overall psyche.  The Jumbos don't think they can win, or can win if they play really well, or have a 50/50 chance against a team as good or allegedly better....no, instead, they enter every game believing they should and will win.  It may not seem like that big of a deal, but that level of confidence, only enjoyed by the rarest of programs (think Messiah, Tufts, and maybe Amherst and Calvin), is a huge advantage.  Of course having really good teams also really helps, and helps make your program a destination program for attractive recruits.

I do think this is a big year for Dezotell.  He stepped into a job that in many ways was ideal and one of the very best in the country while also being impossible (in the sense of hoping to even come close to duplicating what Shapiro did).  The list of programs/coaches who have won three out out of four and four out of six national titles is short...like really, really short.

I love the Tufts at Middlebury match on our doorstep.  I ranked Midd #2 in the country this week, and I do believe that Midd believes "this is our year."  However, Midd is one of those teams I hinted at above that knows they can win and definitely believes they have as good a chance as anyone if they play up to or very close to their capability.  But the Panthers don't yet have the "we absolutely will win this game" mentality.  You get there by breaking through barriers...and this Tufts game is a chance to get a little closer to that mentality.  If Midd loses, they will still be confident and still consider themselves top tier national contenders, but they won't have the extreme confidence level of, let's say, Messiah, Tufts, and Amherst.  Tufts on the other hand could lose Saturday, and even end up 4th or 5th in NESCAC, and there will be little impact on how they fancy their chances in the NCAA tournament.

So, until proven otherwise....Tufts 2, Midd 1.

Unfortunately, the person referenced above has been forced to retired due to the aforementioned commitments and has chosen to pass on the legacy. All comments and opinions expressed are hereby my own and do not reflect the beliefs of the commenter formerly known as D4_Pace.

[PaulNewman]

D4, if the above is true you are committing a very serious violation.  Thankfully, we know you are safe. 

Btw, 'retirement' is not in the Tufts alumni lexicon. 

[Newenglander]

I watched most of Midd vs Conn Coll video...and I thought the teams were very even and that the play for the most part was even.  I would slightly disagree with CSO about Midd being a bit unlucky on the Conn goal.  Grady indeed made a incredible save that very, very few GKs would have gotten a hand on, much less saved.  It was a well-struck ball ticketed for the just inside the right post.  Great save, and as CSO noted, Conn perhaps was fortunate to have a guy right there to knock it in.

What impresses about Conn and especially Coach Burk is that they do not panic.  They were down 1-0 fairly late to Amherst and prevailed 2-1.  Midd was up 1-0 and Conn managed to equalize.  Burk has Conn back to where they were 2 years ago.  I don't know how long Jaran is out (and he was out for a big portion of last season), but would definitely hurt if he isn't available for the post-season.  Conn does have multiple offensive weapons....maybe not one as outstanding as the very top offensive players in the conference but as a group they may be as good as any. 

Midd is very, very good...and solid across the board.  Obviously Midd's defense is stout, led by one of the top GKs in the country.  I do wonder if Midd is short another high level offensive threat.  Losing St Louis would be devastating....so like always injuries and avoiding major injuries will play a large role in who emerges in the the post-season.

It's definitely been a "no quit" attitude this season - they were also down 0-1 late to Tufts and equalized 45 seconds later. Down 0-1 to Trinity and managed the 2-1 win. Babson equalized in the 80th and Conn took the lead for good in the 81st.....

[College Soccer Observer]

I watched most of Midd vs Conn Coll video...and I thought the teams were very even and that the play for the most part was even.  I would slightly disagree with CSO about Midd being a bit unlucky on the Conn goal.  Grady indeed made a incredible save that very, very few GKs would have gotten a hand on, much less saved.  It was a well-struck ball ticketed for the just inside the right post.  Great save, and as CSO noted, Conn perhaps was fortunate to have a guy right there to knock it in.

What impresses about Conn and especially Coach Burk is that they do not panic.  They were down 1-0 fairly late to Amherst and prevailed 2-1.  Midd was up 1-0 and Conn managed to equalize.  Burk has Conn back to where they were 2 years ago.  I don't know how long Jaran is out (and he was out for a big portion of last season), but would definitely hurt if he isn't available for the post-season.  Conn does have multiple offensive weapons....maybe not one as outstanding as the very top offensive players in the conference but as a group they may be as good as any. 

Midd is very, very good...and solid across the board.  Obviously Midd's defense is stout, led by one of the top GKs in the country.  I do wonder if Midd is short another high level offensive threat.  Losing St Louis would be devastating....so like always injuries and avoiding major injuries will play a large role in who emerges in the the post-season.

I agree, I think it was a very even game. Both teams had good chances to score and the freekick goal from Midd was exceptional. I will say that Midd looks extremely dangerous on corner kicks so that will serve them well in postseason play. Saint Louis has the majority of the Panthers points so he will need to stay healthy.

I am very impressed with Conn too. Creus and Scoffone are two players who can create something out of nothing. Also, freshman Miles has the most minutes on the team

I think you can make a case for any of the Top 4 teams right now. It is a very even season and the Top 4 + Bowdoin all have a legitimate chance to make a deep run in NCAAs. Williams hasn't been getting the results they want, but they are always a tough team, and I can see them prevailing on the road in the nescac quarter final.

While not in anyway minimizing the impact of Saint Louis, he is far from a one man show up top.  Gavin Randolph, who will be going against his twin brother Luke on Saturday, has 5 goals and three assists, including goals vs Bowdoin and last Saturday vs Trinity.  Kyle Nillson has 2 goals and 6 assists, and Tyler Payne has 4 goals, including the brilliant free kick vs Conn on Sunday.  Colin Duggan has 3 goals in conference play (vs Hamilton, Wesleyan, and Colby).  First year Harper Nichol had the tying goal vs Amherst and a goal vs Trinity.  Luke Madden is a force on set pieces with 3 goals.  Will Sawin has had a great first year campaign on the left flank with his work rate and ability to get in behind defenses.  Bottom line is the Midd is definitely better when Saint Louis is healthy and in form, but they are more balanced than people think.

[northman]

Welcome FanofNescac....and yes, I bet you're thinking of the same play I am when on first blush it looked like St Louis scored directly off a corner to put Midd back on top.  Tremendous player.  Like I hinted at, though, I'm not clear on who the other danger men are for Midd in terms of posing serious problems for high level opponents.  Amherst has several, Conn has several to a handful, Bowdoin appears to have several.  Tufts seems more like Conn in terms of having a group that is dangerous without any one or two obvious standouts.

I get the senae that a couple of draws has folks downgrading Bowdoin just a bit in comparison with the rest of the top five.  The Polar Bears have a big game with Colby that they really need to win, for confidence as much as anything but also for seeding.  That said, I would strongly resist any impulse to to view Bowdoin as outside the top contender group.  I really like the quartet of Rueda Duran, Huck, Cabral, and Juantorena.

First, I'd like to thank each of you who provided your impressions from the Midd v Conn game.

And my next observation is that I think many, if not all, of us tend to be influenced by a certain degree of recency bias.  We tend to extol the virtues of teams that have performed well in the past 2-3 games, while sometimes forgetting previous performances (both strong and weak).  That said, there is definitely the phenomenon of "form" in sports.  Conn and Midd have both been in good form recently, and Amherst and Tufts appear to have recovered their form after a couple of hiccups.  Bowdoin's form has tailed off over the previous 3 games or so.

But, as we all know well, the current trends in form can change during the NESCAC tournament and/or the NCAA tournament.  Last year's Williams team is a case in point.  My guess is that at least 5 NESCAC teams will make the tournament.  From there it will be interesting to see who is trending upward when it matters most.

[PaulNewman]

Welp...I guess Bowdoin has sent a message.

[d4_Pace]

It does seem like the NESCAC is lacking some of the star individual talent of previous years. I think overall the level of the league has consistently improved even if the level of the top teams may ebb and flow. I think case in point is last year's Williams team was a mid-tier NESCAC team that went on a run all the way to the finals. They were easily the worst of the recent NESCAC final four participants, but they got hot at the right time, played solid low scoring matches, and rode a bit of luck and good goal tending to the final four. There's no reason a similar thing can't happen this year even if there may not be one or two NESCAC teams that clearly stand above the rest of the country like some of the previously mentioned Tufts and Amherst teams. 

[PaulNewman]

It does seem like the NESCAC is lacking some of the star individual talent of previous years. I think overall the level of the league has consistently improved even if the level of the top teams may ebb and flow. I think case in point is last year's Williams team was a mid-tier NESCAC team that went on a run all the way to the finals. They were easily the worst of the recent NESCAC final four participants, but they got hot at the right time, played solid low scoring matches, and rode a bit of luck and good goal tending to the final four. There's no reason a similar thing can't happen this year even if there may not be one or two NESCAC teams that clearly stand above the rest of the country like some of the previously mentioned Tufts and Amherst teams.

Agree with this...maybe a little less star power but stronger overall as a conference.  I mean, at least 4 and probably 5 NESCACs are top 10 teams nationally.  As I've said elsewhere, there are some teams that have a ceiling of very good vs outstanding.  A team that reaches the ceiling of very good with a decent draw and a bit of luck can get further than teams where the ceiling is outstanding.  Williams last year is a great example.  It's true that Tufts does not seem to have conference POY candidates but that doesn't mean they aren't a real national threat.  And there are still stars in NESCAC...Amherst has at least 2-3, Midd has Grady and Saint Louis, Bowdoin has Juantorena and Rueda Duran, etc.  Conn strikes me as similar to Tufts in terms of a having a boatload of very good players but perhaps no obvious AAs.

For whatever reason, FanofNescac made me wonder about Erik Lauta.  He started and played the full 90 for UNH in the first and third matches, and started another game and played the full 90 on October 3rd.  Otherwise, the starter has been a graduate transfer from Radford so perhaps Lauta will be the full-time starter next season.  Radford struck a cord because I think that's where F&M's recently graduated GK started out.  The guy at UNH now post-Radford is from Spain.

Before checking on the Bowdoin game today, I was going to agree with northman that NESCAC will get at least five in the  tournament.  I also was gonna say I won't be surprised if there is a sixth...although that was before seeing that Wesleyan lost to ECSU today.  I can't figure out the Wesleyan program....but losing to a good Western CT squad and a solid program in ECSU isn't going to get it done.  So Williams may be the best bet....and perhaps Hamilton has a chance if the Continentals can capture another couple of projected regionally ranked wins although that would mean getting wins or going at least 1-0-1 versus Amherst away and Oneonta.

Btw, I made an error on another network by stating that Western CT was playing back to back games versus ECSU and Williams.  Not true.  The error arose out of Wesleyan appearing on the NCAA scoreboard as Wes CT....which one could see how that might be confused with Western CT which is listed on the NCAA site as WestConn...