NESCAC

[EnmoreCat]

I can't really offer a proper preview for Amherst's visit to Conn as I got to watch the regular season game on a livestream at work and the nature of the finish (all credit to the Camels sadly) meant I didn't really want to go back and re-watch in the sanctity of deepest dark Enmore.  It was a pretty amazing last 18 minutes after what was more of an arm wrestle earlier.  Conn is a very good team and along with all four semi-finalists, plus hopefully Bowdoin, could easily provide a team that goes very deep in November.

Firstly, a 5.30am Sydney Sunday kick off is a much more palatable time for me and given the recent history between the two teams, it's a very hard call to say definitively that one has an advantage over the other (although if I can pump some air into the Camels' tyres and have them going in over-confident, that would be fine too) and checking Massey, the forecast was 1-1, with the Mammoths' 44% win probability just shading Conn's 39%.  All the other metrics are very close, that's enough for me to say it will be tight, but perhaps with more goals than 1-1.

The one thing I am more comfortable talking about is the Mammoths' season.  I mentioned yesterday that I was in a more reflective mood this week and I have been thinking about how the purple shirts haven't exactly blown me away with their play on a regular basis like they did last season.  So, it was with some surprise that when I actually compared NESCAC points between 2022 and 2023, that I discovered a 4 point improvement on last season's 17 point total, call it a 25% improvement, if you are into such things.  That gave me pause to at least confirm that the 2023 version has been more efficient, which has been my way of thinking about them for the second half of the season at least.

This efficiency means that opposition teams are facing in 2023, a different Mammoths, how about this for a NESCAC stat:

2022: Foul outcomes: Amherst 7 (Amherst average: 16.1) Opposition 3
2023: Amherst 4 (Average: 14.7) Opposition 5 Draws 1

This runs against the prevailing narrative, but feel free to stick with alternative truths, the 2023 team is different.  None of this leads me to forecast anything other than a very tough game tomorrow and again and again with what ever may come after that.  I always read with interest how other posters view Mammoths players and in general, the observations are accurate.  What I would say is that compared to other Amherst iterations, this team might play just a bit more like the ones Coach Serpone has assembled, which rely less on a player, but more on a team, that becomes more difficult for oppositions to deal with.

As the parents of EnmoreKitten's WVU team mate regularly update on Facebook, "Let's Go!".

[d4_Pace]

I do love my alternative truths, so heres one. When it comes to cards, this years edition is basically the Arsenal Invincibles.

Fouls and Cards
Team Stats Fouls
        Team   GP   Fo   F/G           YC   YC/G   RC   RC/G
1   Amherst   16   240   15.00   47   2.94   0   .00
2   Bates   15   159   10.60   27   1.80   2   .13
3   Trinity   15   136   9.07   26   1.73   1   .07
4   Williams   16   190   11.88   25   1.56   0   .00
5   Hamilton   16   175   10.94   25   1.56   0   .00
6   Wesleyan   16   182   11.38   23   1.44   1   .06
7   Middlebury16   209   13.06   21   1.31   0   .00
8   Tufts           16   196   12.25   20   1.25   0   .00
9   Colby   14   157   11.21   19   1.36   1   .07
10   Conn. College   16   176   11.00   12   .75   1   .06
11   Bowdoin   16   162   10.13   10   .63   0   .00

[EnmoreCat]

Cool

[Ejay]

But the invincibles were watchable.

[coach analytics]

Obviously winning a NESCAC title is a huge accomplishment worth celebrating. But I think even more important is going to be home field advantage for the NCAA tournament. In all likelihood two of these teams are going to run into each other in a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 matchup.  Playing at Amherst is a different animal when they can running down their hill from the locker room yelling like braveheart and then play on their crappy field that slows the ball down to a crawl and helps generate the chaotic bounces they thrive on.

Middlebury's field is significantly larger than other field in the NESCAC in a way that has a material effect on the game by making it more difficult to press and generate consistent pressure. 

Conn's field is actually just an embarrassment. For a team that has had such success, tries to actually play the ball on the ground, and doesn't have a football team it makes no sense that they haven't upgraded their field. That being said the have the best crowd in the NESCAC and its the one place that generately a legitamtely intimidating atmosphere. 

I would say Tufts field is the most neutral of all the above as a new Turf field with standard dimensions, obviously playing at home and staying part of the routine is an advantage, that being said the program has arguably been more successful on the road in the tourney versus at home.

I think Amherst Men will likely not host this year because their women are doing so well and this season the Women have priority.

[coach analytics]

I can't really offer a proper preview for Amherst's visit to Conn as I got to watch the regular season game on a livestream at work and the nature of the finish (all credit to the Camels sadly) meant I didn't really want to go back and re-watch in the sanctity of deepest dark Enmore.  It was a pretty amazing last 18 minutes after what was more of an arm wrestle earlier.  Conn is a very good team and along with all four semi-finalists, plus hopefully Bowdoin, could easily provide a team that goes very deep in November.

Firstly, a 5.30am Sydney Sunday kick off is a much more palatable time for me and given the recent history between the two teams, it's a very hard call to say definitively that one has an advantage over the other (although if I can pump some air into the Camels' tyres and have them going in over-confident, that would be fine too) and checking Massey, the forecast was 1-1, with the Mammoths' 44% win probability just shading Conn's 39%.  All the other metrics are very close, that's enough for me to say it will be tight, but perhaps with more goals than 1-1.

The one thing I am more comfortable talking about is the Mammoths' season.  I mentioned yesterday that I was in a more reflective mood this week and I have been thinking about how the purple shirts haven't exactly blown me away with their play on a regular basis like they did last season.  So, it was with some surprise that when I actually compared NESCAC points between 2022 and 2023, that I discovered a 4 point improvement on last season's 17 point total, call it a 25% improvement, if you are into such things.  That gave me pause to at least confirm that the 2023 version has been more efficient, which has been my way of thinking about them for the second half of the season at least.

This efficiency means that opposition teams are facing in 2023, a different Mammoths, how about this for a NESCAC stat:

2022: Foul outcomes: Amherst 7 (Amherst average: 16.1) Opposition 3
2023: Amherst 4 (Average: 14.7) Opposition 5 Draws 1

This runs against the prevailing narrative, but feel free to stick with alternative truths, the 2023 team is different.  None of this leads me to forecast anything other than a very tough game tomorrow and again and again with what ever may come after that.  I always read with interest how other posters view Mammoths players and in general, the observations are accurate.  What I would say is that compared to other Amherst iterations, this team might play just a bit more like the ones Coach Serpone has assembled, which rely less on a player, but more on a team, that becomes more difficult for oppositions to deal with.

As the parents of EnmoreKitten's WVU team mate regularly update on Facebook, "Let's Go!".

I think this is an excellent assessment of Amherst's season.  They play technical soccer much better than in the 2022 season.  I think a big part of it is the return of Cubbedu and the fresh Nadu, who is an absolute IMPACT player.   Dare I say they actually play better on turf than on Hitchcock field?

Their fouling and yellow cards still lead the league!

[coach analytics]

#1 Middlebury vs. #4 Tufts –

Midd hosts the weekend after a flawless regular season. Congrats to Midd and their supporters. Midd's stellar defense and midfield allow their offensive players to play freely and creatively. You can see this in Midd's second goal vs Williams in which #14 and #6 had a great combination on the top of the box. This creativity is new for Midd (at least in the past 5 seasons). #26 Randolph is underrated and is a crafty player. He's only a sophomore and is an integral part of the team. #23 Saint Louis is having a great season despite what others have said. He is the best set-piece taker in the conference, and maybe the best dribbler. I am curious to see his leadership in difficult moments. They have yet to have a setback, and watching the games you can visibly see his frustration with his teammates when they don't give him a good pass. It's a minor detail, but important in the playoffs. The defense + Grady have been lights out so if that continues good things will happen.

Tufts goes into this game after two consecutive impressive wins vs Bowdoin. That's a great sign for Jumbos fans after the loss to Midd. It's difficult to understand Tufts playing style because they have a mix of ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession oriented (this could be good). Feigin and Traynor are talented players who lead the Jumbos offensively, paired with experienced midfield and defensive players like Gerkin, Clivio, Campbell. Might be wrong, but I believe Yanez takes their set pieces and they are good. The midfield is scrappy and battles the whole game. Brady is the lone striker and is going to need to be at his best to help the Jumbos Saturday.

Prediction: This is a rematch of the 2021 NESCAC Semi-Final in which freshman Feigin scored the game-winner. I have no doubt Middlebury is the better team overall, but the better team doesn't always win. In order for the Jumbos to win, Clivio will need to have his best performance of the season. Feigin and Traynor will need to cause chaos. The Jumbos roster has tons of experienced players who have played in huge games throughout their careers. If the Jumbos can get to halftime 0-0, I like their chances. Tufts 1-0.

Aahhh - a true NESCAC fan....this is an excellent and balanced review of both games.  Keep up the contribution.

For Mid Tufts - seems like homefield advantage versus experience (except in net) Both are talented groups across the board (incl in the nets)

[d4_Pace]

Cool

I apologize I shouldn't have been so antagonistic. But you've brought this up all year as if it's some witch trial, when the stats largely reflect the perception.

[Hopkins92]

yeah, enmorecat, I watch this whole thing from a very distant distance, but the foul and card stats over the last decade don't lie. It started way before your son enrolled and it won't abate until someone else takes the reins.

I'm not an Amherst hater. I don't really care about the NESCAC in any real emotional way. But I've watched lots of games as a neutral and the tactics are cynical. Full stop.

[EnmoreCat]

We're all good d4_Pace, I equally apologize for trying to be funny in channelling my inner John Oliver with my retort, it's not the first time here that it hasn't worked.

When I first got exposed to the boards last year, I'm comfortable saying that I found the depth of rancour felt for the programme on the confronting side, essentially because all our interaction had been super positive.  My skin is pretty thick, but I also wanted to at least offer a counter view, whilst at the same time respecting every team that makes up the rest of the 417, because in other circumstances, EnmoreKitten could have been at one of them.  Nothing at all says that Amherst has to be offered that same respect, by people here, but equally, I am happy challenging a view and equally, having my view challenged (although to be fair, I prefer being the challenger on balance).  How far this has come was evident in the latest SC/PN show, where it became clear that in some circles at least, "amhate" has entered the lexicon, although sadly not to the same degree as "ammiration", but there is still lots of time...

This brings us to the foul count.  I think others have pointed out that I don't shy away from noting the outcome, because it is observable.  The amount of information contained in the box score is impressive and like nothing we have ever seen in Sydney, but of course, does mean that some of it is subject to interpretation.  If each NESCAC team had had precisely the same non-conference schedule and those numbers were the same as what you published, then your assertion would be completely right, but stripping it back to NESCAC only, ensure that it's apples that are being compared to apples.  That shows for 2023 compared to 2022 in NESCAC regular play, the Mammoths were out-fouled by their opponents in half of the games, compared to being clearly superior (maybe not the best choice of word) in 2022. 

This is not a plea for Amherst to be given a ribbon for improvement, but I also know that it's something that doesn't fit with the prevailing narrative, which may seem the same at a macro level, but at a more nuanced micro level, clearly differs.  It's fair to say that Amherst plays on the edge, but for 2023 at least, NESCAC stats suggest it may be a little further from it. 



   

[d4_Pace]

I'll say this Enmore. I have no love lost for Amherst as a program and particularly for Serpone. But the NESCAC soccer world is a small one particularly in NYC and Boston and it's funny how many Amherst guys I've run into over the years and shared a beer with. Maybe the kitten will be one one day too.

[EnmoreCat]

I'll say this Enmore. I have no love lost for Amherst as a program and particularly for Serpone. But the NESCAC soccer world is a small one particularly in NYC and Boston and it's funny how many Amherst guys I've run into over the years and shared a beer with. Maybe the kitten will be one one day too.

As someone famous once said, d4_Pace, "You never know your luck in a big city".  EnmoreKitten played at Downtown United over the summer with a cross-section of guys from various colleges and they all seemed to get on.

[northman]

That is one of the cool dimensions of NESCAC sports.  This tends to be a tight knit league, and there are friendships across schools...which translate into friendships and professional connections among alumni.  My son who went to Bowdoin has close friendships and professional connections with alumni of Williams, Colby, Amherst, Conn College, and Trinity among others.

[d4_Pace]

Was there a game this morning?

[coach analytics]

I have been professing that the NESCAC soccer has been seeing a sea change of technical skills and players overcoming the traditional physicality......I was proven wrong today!

4 or the six goals scored in today semifinal games were scored by defenders off set pieces (or close to set pieces), one was an own goal and only one came from the run of play.  Congrats to my All NESCAC forward Traynor from Tufts and my "should have been all"NESCAC midfielder Yanez for the goal of the day as Traynor fed Yanez for a world class finish.

Are we surprised that in "the year of Middlebury" Tufts and Amherst are the last ones standing?  They have dominated NESCAC playoffs in the last 6 years despite an amazing amount of parity among the top 4.

Here are the NESCAC records for the last 6 seasons (as of today)

Middlebury 5-6-2 and zero championships
Conn College 3-5-3 and zero championships (although a National championship!)
Amherst 7-3 and a championship in 2022
Tufts 11-0-2 and 3 championships in 2017, 2019, 2021

Tufts run is impressive and tomorrow can literally run the table with wins at home in 2017, at Amherst in 2019, and at Conn in 2021....with a win tomorrow on Middlebury's home turf, they will make it a sweep.

Games overview -

Tufts 2 Middlebury 1.  In a complete reversal from a couple weeks ago when my all NESCAC forward Randolph capitalized on a Tufts error, my All NESCAC forwards Traynor and Brady pressured Middlebury into a mistake, giving my All NESCAC GK  one of his few blemishes. Gibson Campbell had an exceptional game covering the Mid dangerous outside players. Mid had some chances off set pieces but tufts D shut them down in the run of play.

Amherst 2- Conn 1 - a battle with three set piece goals.  Two goals in the first handful of minuted in a NESCAC game...oh my!  It's real tough to give Amherst a lead and let then sit back and do what they do best.  A real rough one with 20 Amherst fouls.  The ref kind of let it get out of control. Not sure I have seen so many slide tackles...some good..some dirty.  Game balls to the Enmore kitten who had one of the two  goals and was rock solid in the box...and to my favorite Mammoth, Nadu, who drew a PK and provides something that others don't in the mammoth line up.

No predictions for the final which is a rematch of the 2019 National Championship game which my guess is only a handful of current players got to experience. I will let D4P make a prediction.