NESCAC

[LaPaz]

sumfun- got ur message thanks.




Sat / Sun 10-15/10-16 Predictions.
So my predictions have been a bit off lately but maybe this week-end brings better results.

Bowdoin v Hamilton-   2-0   A must win for both teams to stay alive in the Nescac playoff hunt.  Bowdoin is beginning to become along with Trinity, Tufts and Conn totally unpredictable.  However, I have seen Hamilton a couple times and have stated in the past not particularly impressed. I hate to do it again but I will put my gut with Bowdoin on this one but if I was betting real money on Bowdoin all season I would be way in the hole. The travel is just too much for Hamilton this season. Is Call Nichols injured? Have not seen Bowdoin in a while and have not seen him in their line-up.  If so, that is a big loss in the middle of the park.

Conn v Bates-  1-1    My prediction for a Bates tie with Wes last week was a disaster.  However, I believe Conn will be looking ahead to Williams and might look past my mighty Bobcats. Big fan of #21 Murphy and #11 Hirshberg has shown he can score goals. I like Conn as they have some talented players in #7 Brown,( can be inconsistent, he drifts in and out some games), #6 Maghenzani, #8 O'Brien( very good athlete and work rate), #10 Hormel (see O'Brien) and decent goalkeeping for a keeper with not much size.  Their back 4 are athletic but slow and with the back 4 all seniors that will be interesting to monitor next year. No idea where the athletic #19 Garabedian has been. I thought he would be more of a helper this year.

Colby v Amherst  0-2   After a great and somewhat lucky comeback against Williams last weekend, Amherst looked completely drained against Trinity this week but still managed to come away with a victory.  An ugly affair with Trinity saw 11 combined team shots and I bet not even half were on goal. #19 Heo seems to be wearing down a bit or maybe just tired. Good thing is you have talent to pick him up with Noon playing some great soccer. That game against Williams was one of his best I have seen from him. Amherst just plugging away and will dismantle Colby even with tired legs.

Middlebury v Trinity  1-0  Two teams headed in opposite directions. I will go with the flow and pick the team that is winning right now. These two teams are not that far apart but without Reilly (is he injured?) Trinity's Defense looks a bit shakier than it did before. As we know they still have weapons but not enough to get a result at Midd.  Pitney and Macnee are the difference.    Midd looking to win out beat Williams and possibly a couple of Nescac playoff games and they will be in despite early season struggles.  They have no decent wins on the season so that could hurt, but hey still haven't let up a goal in 5 games. Very impressive.

Tufts v Williams  0-1   Williams needs this game and the next  4 to  be considered for an At-large. Tufts looked absolutely dismal against Conn last weekend.  Besides #18 Santos and maybe #12 Hoppenot and a couple others they had no one doing anything on the day. They were an unattractive team to watch on that day playing a little to defensively for my taste. Why Santos is on a wing midfield and not used as a striker is anyone's guess. Yes he has the skill to beat players wide but my money would be to play him up top and let him go to work.  Williams as pointed out by another poster has had some injuries but to inconsistent to be relied upon. I do think they can squeak a goal in this homecoming game for Tufts with noise coming in every direction(football game, etc)

Sunday:
A lot depends on Saturday and injuries and tired legs but here goes.

Bowdoin v Amherst- 0-0
Colby v Hamilton- 0-0
Bates v Tufts- 0-0
Conn v Williams 0-2

[amh63]

Amherst beats Colby 3-0 at Colby on a windy day.  The online coverage was off and on and I could not tell who was winning since the announcers didn't give any scores in the first half.....so I assume it was 0-0 at the half (was watching the football game on-line).  When I returned to the game late in the second half, still no scores given and I assumed Amherst was winning by the tone of the announcers.  The wind was quite noisy durning the broadcast.  It will be Bowdoin on Sunday...the last away game of four for Amherst.

[amh63]

Amherst wins in Maine against Bowdoin 2-1.  It was 0-0 at the half with most of the attacking by Amherst.  In the first 5 minutes of the second half, Amherst goes ahead 1-0 on a goal by Noon.   Mid-way in the 2nd, Bowdoin ties it up off a corner.  Heo is injured later in the half and goes out of the game.  Carried off first and then favors his left ankle.  Amherst goes in front by 2-1 on a shot by Norton.  the last five minutes was as the Bowdoin announcers termed it...Chaotic".  Rough play in the second half as both sides get a yellow card.
Need to make a modification after seeing the box.  The goal attributed to Noon was by teammate Sucre, a header with an assist from Heo....off a corner.  My error was the error from the announcers who ID Noon as the player.

[NEsoccer]

Shaping up to be an incredible stretch run with several intriguing story lines.

A the top of the list is the top of the table. Amherst I think proved their toughness making it out of their gauntlet 3-0-1 to tie Wesleyan for first place. Great for all fans that they get to play each other for what is essentially the regular season crown. I think amherst is the better team, by a hair. They have so many weapons (amh63, did heo return after his injury?).  If anyone can keep them off the score sheet it's Purdy and that defense though. Aside, any player of the year thoughts? To me its Noon vs Purdy. I favor Noon just because I think a lot of purdy's gaudy numbers are helped by the defense that plays in front of him. I wonder though if Heo and Noon will split votes (or however they make the decision) amongst those who would lean toward selecting an Amherst forward.

Then you've got trinity, tufts and williams left to fight it out for 3rd and 4th (I don't include conn because I believe amherst will beat them in their only remaining game). A really impressive pair of results for tufts this weekend, they're 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. Important to get those home quarterfinal games.

Finally there is the last spot in the tournament (assuming conn and midd finish 6&7 in some order). Only bates is eliminated, and Hamilton has a game in hand. I think Colby will get it as they reach ten points with a game left still against bates ( I do hope bates gets a win, hate to see anyone go winless but at Colby and home against midd, I don't know if they'll get it in either). All this means that last years final four team might not even reach the conference tournament.

[LaPaz]

Lets hope Amherst wins so they will most likely host(unless a 1v8 unlikely upset) the semi's and final. There field is in such better condition than Wesleyan.  I agree I thought Tufts fought and battled thru two very important and tough games this past weekend.  Between Tufts, Williams and Trinity, I would say Williams and maybe Tufts have the easiest schedule left for 3rd. Tufts has road games at Hamilton(who will be fighting for their life for #8 seed) and at Bowdoin(same). Williams a home game vs Colby( Williams is 12-0-1 all time vs Colby in 13 meetings, outscoring them 41-3...OUCH) and are at Midd( def a tough game but a result is possible for sure). I like it ending like this 1.Amherst
                     2.Wes
                     3.Williams
                     4.Trinity
                     5.Tufts
                     6.Conn
                     7.Midd
                     8.Bowdoin
Maybe u want to finish 3rd or 4th...I wuldnt want to play Midd opening round or even Bowdoin. 

[NEsoccer]

I'd like Amherst to host as well, and I think they will. Even if the game ties between them and Wesleyan (though I like Amherst 1-0) Amherst has the easier final opponent. I have no idea what will happen 3/4/5. I could see any of the 6 combos happening.

I think it will shake out like this
Amherst
Wesleyan
Tufts
Williams
Trinity (just drew those three from a hat)
Midd
Conn College
Colby

[LaPaz]

With WNEC and Springfield losing home games yesterday and Roger Williams tying, this could possibly bring more teams into the picture like Brandeis and Williams if they can win out.

[NEsoccer]

Biggest game of the year was a bit of a dud, I wasn't too impressed with either team going forward. Most of the shots were slow and from distance. The best chance was early in the game when Noon forced Purdy to go low and to his right go make a save, but it really wasn't that threatening. Seemed like Amherst's offense missed their most imaginative player, Heo. For their sake, I hope he isn't out too much longer. From all the stories written about him this year, seems like he must have been feeling it badly to have missed this game.  I think both will win their next game, not sure what the tie breaker is.

[LaPaz]

First off I agree, I was at that Wes v Amh game and it was a tedious defense affair.  Good atmosphere though.  Interesting final week coming up.  With Williams' two wins and Springfield 2 losses plus a Roger Williams loss a Brandeis win and a Tufts loss this week's regional rankings in my opinion will look like this:

1.Amherst
2.Babson
3.Wesleyan
4.WNEC
5.Williams
6.Brandeis
7.Tufts
8.Trinity
9.ECONN
10.Middlebury
11.Roger Williams

Williams at Midd   0-0      An extremely important game for both teams.  Midd for seeding in Nescac's and Williams also for seeding but a win could really push them into At-large contenders.  Both teams have been playing much better lately, although from what the recap said of the Midd v Bates game it sounds like a horrible goalkeeping error that Midd got that 1-0 win.  Williams' goalkeeping has been getting stronger with Than Finan taking over for an injured Morrell. The defense in front of Finan has been exceptional as mostly impressive has been senior #4 Vestegard and frosh #3 Crump(former Bolts player and no idea why some Ivies would have passed on him, maybe not the fastest but certainly makes up for it for his defending). #5 Ratajczak has been ok but hasn't been as aggressive as I have seen him in years past. #2 Weinrib has the nice long throw and is pretty technical for a guy 6'3 but seems to be always injured or for whatever reason doesn't play every game.  The midfield has improved from the beginning of the year with the tenacious #13 Kennedy and skilled #23 Chistman (who the recap from yesterdays RPI game sounds like he scored 2 great goals) and the hard worker #8 Pugliese. Again Williams' has no strikers and no pure goal scorers and it shows in their stats with spread out goal scoring from middies and some forwards.  Midd has been shutting down teams since the beginning of October. I have not seen them since their 3-0 loss at Amherst but can imagine with Cahill and solid defending they will be extremely tough to score on. Macnee is the best pure striker in this game by far and could cause problems for Williams' backline.  My gut says scoreless draw though.

Tufts at Bowdoin   2-1    Just the biggest disappointment in a long time.  The sad part is Bowdoin will be losing a ton of good players Jones, Bishop, Nichols, Powell. 4 very good players all playing a huge roll in last years final four run.I still do not get this collapse and I am assuming no one does, would love an explanation from someone in the kno. Either way Bowdoin packed it in a long time ago and Tufts needs this game more than anything for a home seed and possible at-large aspirations. They had Hamilton on the ropes with about 10 minutes to play and just gave that game away. Really disappointing, as it sounds like they outplayed Hamilton for the most part of that game.  That game could quite cost them home field.

Bates at Colby     0-2   Can a team actually go 0-10 in Nescac play? This team can and will.  Colby is a decent side with average goalkeeping and defending.  Great midfielder in #10 Meisel who could be one of the top 5 players in Nescac. He runs the show on this team and when I say run I mean it. The kid doesn't stop working and he has skill to boot.  They have to win to get in which makes for an exciting game with high stakes and a ton of pressure. Bates will be playing with no pressure and will play spoiler, that makes this game dangerous for Colby but I believe they will prevail. Colby tries to play an attractive style of soccer by keeping the ball on the ground and do have some skill to do it. They like to attack with their wingbacks which puts pressure on defenses but also opens them up a bit. They just have no striker to rely on to score critical goals. Come to think of it not many teams in Nescac do.

Conn at Amherst   0-1   Amherst wants the home seed and Conn looking to stay ahead of Midd for 6 seed and possibly pass Tufts for 5. Amherst is def a different team without Heo but lately he wasn't producing as much.  They are less explosive offensively as that Wes game showed.  Can anyone update with an injury report or the type of injury he sustained?  Conn has been up and down all year but I believe they play much better on their home field than on the road. Advantage Amherst.

Trinity at Wes    0-0 Again the importance for home field and seeding, etc.  Trinity with that end of the year schedule has done much better than I thought they would and have a legit chance for #3 seed b/c of Williams having tough game.  Wes has more at stake though as home field for them means a huge advantage in Nescac's.  However, both these teams are so stingy on defense I do not see many chances in this game.

[amh63]

Was at the game on Sat.  Heo was on the sidelines in his covers and moved about ok, shouting encouragements to his teammates.  He limped off the field several games ago.  Saw Noon and several of his teammates on Sunday.  Their only remark about Heo was that he was injured.  Didn't expect any more or any less.

[NESoccr]

1st post this yr. follow cac as kind of a hobby.  in hartford area & see bunch of games in wes, trin, amh corridor.  liked the amh-wes game.  exactly what i expected.  wes & amh both very strong defensively. that's good soccer.

lapaz - your knowledge is impressive.  as to bowdoin, jones & nichols out for season with injuries, but collapse shows lack of depth & points to probs in recruiting over past few yrs.  can't blame everything on keeper.  he might not be one of the best, but no one has said he's let in soft goals.  on other hand, amh missing mooney for whole season who was second high scorer and all nescac, and they haven't skipped a beat.   

for tomorrow, i see wes winning home field for nescac semis & finals.  think amh will be upset by conn, who has beaten them 2 or 3 three times in last 4 years.  amh looked very tired at end of wes game compared to wes who played more players for longer time.  even if heo returns, he hasn't been effective last 3-4 games anyway.  noon, sucer, and defense have been the leaders.  wes beats trin 1-0 (what else); midd and wms tie; colby over bates; and bow finally gets win over tufts.  don't knowhow that shakes out for tourney, but leave that to someone else. 

will start next post with thoughts for all nescac this year.         

[NHsocca1]

Williams over Midd 3-0-----Williams hitting stride at perfect time for playoff run.
Wes and Trinity tie 1-1-----Both teams playing great.
Conn over Amherst 2-0-----Conn beats Amherst regularly. An easy pick, not even an upset.
Tufts over Bowdoin 1-0-----Defensive battle.
Colby and Bates tie 0-0-----Another defensive battle.

[LaPaz]

Williams never wins at MIDD..nhsoc must be a williams alum...I cant remember the last time they won at Midd even with the Jamaican connection and all those good teams.

[NEsoccer]

Bizarre final day. I didnt see the game, and the box score isn't yet available, but apparently Amherst missed a pk in the final seconds. I'm interested to see the stats of the game. I wonder if conn Coll (who as nhsocca said has handles Amherst) created equal chances or just finished the few they got. Also, curious if this game was back and forth or on team jumped out several goals early. In the end this lose, nor the one for Wesleyan is killer. Both are pool c locks. The biggest thing is now wesleyan has midd In the round rather than Colby. A bit of a scary proposition. I won't comment on home field advantage for the semis and finals, because anything can happen in the first week. I like trinity, what do they need to accomplish in this tourney to get in pool c if they don't win the whole thing. Same question for Williams. I think Williams will benefit from name recognition if only three teams are coming from the Nescac.

The best things from the day, the box score description of tufts' first goal against Bowdoin (for which there really isn't much left to be said) :

"1. 22:03 TUF Goal: Maxime Hoppenet. Assist: Gus Santos. cheeky move inside the box. delivered sharp cheddar to the upper 90"

[amh63]

The story of the Amherst lost to Conn. is posted on the Amherst website.  From the stats and boxscore, Amherst was ahead......but lost the game.  Game went back and forth with Amherst up and Conn. making it 1-1 and the same for 2-2.  Noon missed the penalty kick to tie the game in the end.  The NESCAC site gives the story why Amherst got the top seed and gives the match ups.