NESCAC

[LaPaz]

You can keep the count rolling for Amherst but the truth is they are not good enough to keep it going. Someone will knock them off in the next 4-5 games.

[PaulNewman]

So I gave Colby a little too much credit.  Guess I was feeling guilty for criticizing, and then they go down 4-1 to one of the other weakest teams.

Looking ahead to NCAA bids, are Amherst and Williams the only teams that are safe (barring a Williams collapse and early conference tourney exit)?  Tufts, Wesleyan, Conn, and Trinity all appear to be on shaky ground and may need at least a run to tournament final to get a bid.  Midd and Bowdoin surging down the stretch now with the inside track? 

Will one or two of these teams benefit from relative weakness in the region outside the conference?  Babson not having a banner year (although gets crack at Bowdoin today).  Wheaton has faltered a bit.  Even Brandeis is finding tough sledding in the UAA and could be 1-3 in conference in another hour or so.

[LaPaz]

A lot of parity in all D3 will make the regional rankings very interesting. So much parity in Nescac and UAA. WNEC and Roger Williams and Gordon in a weak league but have good records. Roger Williams some good road wins they might be #4 or #5. I'm sorry but Brandeis not a good UAA record if they lose to Emory and have no clear cut good wins except at Babson, who is coming on.

1. Amherst- No question New England #1, only question is will they get one of the 2 important bye's in NCAA's. If they win out and win Nescac tourney they will. If they lose or tie a couple more they won't get bye but will def host.


2. Williams- Win out and they will be #2, some very good road wins which helps and counts as more points. Wins at Midd,Wes and Babson will help.

3. thru #11 no clue. Toss a coin. Trinity and Bowdoin will be in there but have tough games left. Conn as well. There tie at Amherst will help. Springfield would jave been there but a loss at Babson and no clear cut good wins except WNEC. WNEC if they beat Amherst could really be #3-4.

Still to much league play left to predict

[All NESCAC]

I agree with LaPaz that other than Amherst there is much parity inD3/NEzsCAC.  Williams is next best team talent wise.  The rest of nescac is truly a toss up as week to week you never know who will show up.  Thought Conn was on a roll but watched their game and while they dominated 1st half they disappeared in 2nd half.  Conn's back line gave up two very soft goals as keeper and left back had a couple of uh oh moments.  Brewster and Bowdoin clamped down and Conn couldn't get the equilizer and were left wondering how they just lost to a so so polar bear team.  Kudos to Bowdoin as they took advantage.  If Conn doesn't rebound they may unbelievably not even make the playoffs and they still have to play Trinity and Wesleyan.  Tufts is still reeling.  Middlebury is in good position.  Hamilton is still alive. Trinity and Wesleyan are still both in control but with tough games remaining.  Amherst remains the cut above despite the 2 ties yet only team this year with talent to make a small run in the tournament but likely not a deep run.

[LaPaz]

Predictions for tomorrow as always will be tough. Regional rankings were what I expected. Williams might drop a bit after a loss at ranked RPI but I do not think they will drop much. WNEC might drop a spot or 2 after a tie with Salve. Was a bit surprised the CCC got 4 teams ranked but hats off to the league but a Roger Williams vs Gordon match this weekend could be big. I have not seen any CCC team this year so if anyone out there has please fill us all in. Was a little surprised that Conn and Springfield were not ranked. Springfield vs MIT also a big match as is Trinity vs Conn.

Colby at Bowdoin- Colby 0-8 in Nescac and have taken a beating on this board. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain as they could still win the CBB. Either way their season is over Wednesday and lasted all of 2 months. This will be a battle game and while Bowdoin is more athletic I am not so sure they have any clear cut goal scorers. Bowdoin needs to keep winning to move up the regional rankings ladder so the pressure is all on them. They will handle it fine and Colby and will be sent packing. 2-0 Bowdoin

Bates at Williams- Again another team in Bates who has nothing to play for and nothing to lose. However, Williams usually gets up big after losing games. Bates I still believe is a worse team than Colby and are way to small at key positions(besides striker) and maybe central defenders to play in Nescac. Williams not a big team either but have way more weapons. Does Bates sit in and play for another useless tie and play with one striker or do they come out with reckless abandon with nothing to lose like they should. My bets are on the former with this useless English coach using this as a program builder(insert sarcasm here). If its the latter Williams blows them off the field. 4-0 Williams

Amherst at WNEC- Interesting non-league game. I have not seen WNEC play and do not know their roster but if they are reasonably big and can hang with Amherst and their set pieces, who knows. A win for WNEC here and an at-large will be a definite, so the pressure is on them really. Amherst already clinched but they need this game and a couple other wins to secure that all important BYE in the NCAA's. Big game here with tons of ramifications. Amherst 2-0

Trinity at Conn- Very interesting neither of these teams were ranked. Conn has some good road wins but I think they based it on SOS and Trinity has one GOOD win at home over Williams. The loss to Wesleyan really hurt as they missed a PK. They are really reeling right now. I was surprised Conn couldn't get at least a draw with Bowdoin last week and that hurt them. Winner of this game will be ranked. 1-1

Tufts at Hamilton- Hamilton has played very well at home and Tufts is reeling and has no confidence right now. Pressure all on Hamilton as they need a win here to stay in playoff picture. 3 years and they still can't crack the top 8 in Nescac. I think Tufts  has better talent and if they could get Santos back and playing before the tourney they could make a good run in Nescac's. No one would want to play them in the first round. They are a small team and I think that has hurt them in the physical league that Nescac has become. However, they are very quick up front even without Santos and can score goals. The keeper who is a big improvement over last years keeper was red carded last week at Williams so he will need to sit out. This could be a huge problem. Tufts rolls into central NY and comes away with a victory. 2-1

Midd at Wes- Battle game for seeding and possible 2nd or 3rd place. Can Wesleyan contain Glazer and can they find a goal of their own. Toss a coin here. 0-0

[PaulNewman]

I was writing this before seeing LaPaz...

Where's all the usual NESCAC interest?

Some key games this weekend with a few teams facing a rapidly closing door for an at large bid.

Trinity at Conn Coll -- I'm guessing the loser of this one is out, and that the winner may need to win the final game (Trinity has Amherst and Conn has Wesleyan) as well as at least a quarterfinal game in the NESCAC tourney.  At this point don't see either squad having a clear advantage so looks like toss-up game.

Hamilton hosting Tufts -- Long odds for Hamilton facing Tufts and then away at Williams.  Tufts has really underformed relative to very high expectations.  The win over Brandeis can only go so far, especially with Brandeis struggling recently as well.  This could be a tough one for Tufts on the road before closing with a hot Bowdoin team.  I'm guessing Tufts will have to win the NESCAC tourney to get a bid, or at least win the final two and then make a run to the final.

Wesleyan hosting Midd -- Massive game for both teams.  Guessing both need this game and a win or two in the tourney to snag a bid.  Wes will still have an away game at Conn Coll which may or not be huge depending on results tomorrow.  For an at large bid Wes also needs to overcome their non-conference losses.

Bowdoin vs Colby -- Potential trap game for Bowdoin.  They've been hot but is this a rival "throw out the records" game?  Bowdoin needs game badly as they close on the road at Tufts which will be a game Tufts desperately will need.

Williams hosting Bates -- Hate to be Bates with Williams coming off loss to RPI.  Williams looks to be in good shape as they close with Hamilton, but a surprise loss in either game could make things hairy for the Ephs.

Will the NESCAC get 4 bids even if not deserving?  Have they been limited to 3 in any recent years?

Do some of you NESCAC followers believe results thus far are due to the conference being down, parity, or both?

[PaulNewman]

Other than not mentioning them at all, what can one say about Colby?  When was the last time they finished in top 4 or even top 6 or got to NESCAC tourney semis?  Probably splitting hairs to say who is stronger or weaker between Bates and Colby but this year seems pretty clear that Bates has been in more games and more competitive overall.  Still a mystery to me how these two very attractive schools can't attract better recruits. 

[All NESCAC]

Who knows what this weekend will bring....one thing for certain is the uncertainty.  Big/crucial games this weekend are Wesleyan vs Middlebury and Trinity vs Conn as the rest there is a clear cut favorite in every game.  Losers of these 2 games will be in stormy waters with no chance of NCAAs and an awful seeding in the league playoffs as no one wants to fall to #8 and face Amherst in game #1.  I like Middlebury and Conn in these games, which of course means that Wesleyan and Trinity will likely win...just like at the casino those with smart $$ go against my bets.  Should be eventful soccer watching this weekend.  Go NESCAC.

[LaPaz]

With regional rankings being a major factor I can only see Amherst as a definite bid. Williams and Midd might need to get to final, but Midd's SOS is not as good and Williams won head to head. Bowdoin in good shape  with win against Williams and tie vs Midd...early results were not very good. They will need a good run. Trinity and Conn a run to finals will get them ranked a depending on other teams results get them IN. All other teams will have to win league tourney.

Colby was 5th place a couple years ago...Bates under Purgavie used to sneak in almost every year and one year I think 2006 made the semi's. Hey its not easy. Just ask Nizzi at Hamilton who used to go 9-3-4 or whatever in Liberty league and even make NCAA's...guy can barely get 4 wins a year now.

[CacCaptain]

It is hard for me to believe the NESCAC would only receive 2 or even 3 bids to the tourney. I understand the records of the top 4 or 5 teams are worse than in years past (excluding Amherst) but this is due in large part to the top 8 all beating each other up.

The NESCAC out of conference record is 33-6-3 to this point (if my math is right), so it's hard to argue against the CAC dominance.

Does anyone have insight into the selections committee's thoughts here? It's possible an 8 win team could be the 2 seed and a couple upsets in the tourney could make it near impossible to choose between seeds 2-8. Could parity truly penalize the CAC and result in only 2 tournament teams despite the league's dominance?

[LaPaz]

Happened in 2011---2 bids Amherst and Trinity...all based on regional rankings...When Nescac teams beat each other up it does the league no favors for more teams especially when you have teams like Gordon who play no one and are 14-1-0. Besides Gordon though WNEC, MIT and Roger Williams have beaten some decent teams.

[PaulNewman]

LaPaz, I checked and there were 3 in 2011.  You missed Wesleyan.  Interestingly, the UAA only had 2 in 2011 and then a whopping 5 in 2012.  I didn't realize there are only 19 Pool C bids, so the UAA had more than 25% of the total last year and combined with NESCAC those two conferences had basically half of the total at large bids.  Way too many automatic qualifiers IMHO with many high quality teams getting left out.

I was curious about Colby.  They were 5th in 2010 with a conference record of 4-5 and overall record of 7-7-1.  Their only seasons above .500 going all the way back to 2000 were in 2008 (7-6-1) and 2006 (6-5-3).  With the exception of the 5th place finish in 2010, over the last 13 years years they have finished 10th 3 times, 9th 5 times, and 8th 4 times.  They did fairly well throughout the decade of the 90s, including VERY well from 1990 through 1994 with a 16-1-1 season in '93, 13-1-2 in '90 and 11-3-2 in '94.  They also had strong years in '82, '79 and '78.

[Jump4Joy]

Jeffs: 33 games without a loss.

[Flying Weasel]

Happened in 2011---2 bids Amherst and Trinity...all based on regional rankings...When Nescac teams beat each other up it does the league no favors for more teams especially when you have teams like Gordon who play no one and are 14-1-0. Besides Gordon though WNEC, MIT and Roger Williams have beaten some decent teams.

As to conference teams beating up on another, I don't see it as hurting just that much for the teams that come out in the top 3 or 4 sports.  Strength of schedule is very important to the selection committee, and you get that being in a strong conference.  Sure, teams pick up more losses, but observing the committee's at-large selections over the years I get the feeling that the committee is much more forgiving of losses to good teams than they are of a lack of wins against ranked teams.

Gordon's schedule certainly isn't very tough, relatively speaking.  They have beaten two of the three other non-NESCAC team you mention (Roger Williams and WNEC).  Time will tell, but Gordon may be on the ascent.  Maybe.  One surprising regular season isn't enough to tell, of course.  But they have a new head coach, Derek Pottieger, a D-I All-American at Penn State, a decent A-League/USL pro player, and most recently assistant to Dave Brandt (6 national titles at Messiah) during the first three years of Brandt's tenure at Navy.  Potteiger is assisted by Nick Thompson (Messiah All-American).  And Gordon currently has three players from Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy, a school which provided Messiah with several eventual All-Americans, including Nick Thompson and Kai Kasiguran, the 2007 D-III Player-of-the-Year and older brother of two of Gordon's players.  Add to that a great season that can only help their recruiting, and Gordon might be able to build a top program over the coming years.

[All NESCAC]

Jeffs: 33 games without a loss.

stats of the game show that despite only a 1 to 0 victory the Lord Jeffs dominated the game from start to finish....word is it could have been 6 to0 if Amherst finished better.  No one wants to finish 8th and play them in first round of Nescac playoffs.  Playoff seedings #2 to #8 shuffling still up for grabs. Big win by Wesleyan over Middlebury.
CONN got some starters back from injury and dominated Trinity....5 goals in a nescac game really? WILLIAMS getting healthier handled Bates easily although they didn't finish as well as coach Russo wants.  Bowdoin rolls and Tufts stays alive. Big games Tuesday Bowdoin at Tufts and Wednesday Wesleyan at Conn....the topsy turvy season continues and Amherst keeps rolling on