NESCAC

[PaulNewman]

Conn Coll over Wes -- 2-1 -- Wes has been too uneven to beat a decent to good team 2 times in one week, and Conn has demonstrated more overall firepower.

Amherst over Hamilton 4-0, could be 5-0.

Bowdoin over Tufts in PKs

Williams over Middlebury 2-0 -- Based on Williams always sticks around long enough to torture Amherst and Midd is a year away

In semis, Amherst takes out Bowdoin (or Tufts) 3-1 and Williams beats Conn 2-1

Williams wins in final 1-0

In above scenario I would only have Amherst and Williams going to NCAAs with possible 3rd bid going to Bowdoin if Bowdoin does in fact get by Tufts and then plays very competitively against Amherst or manages to beat Amherst.

[Saint of Old]

Hamilton can shock Amherst.
They have not been in the Tourney in a while, and would love nothing better than to Dance again.
Hamilton simply have more to play for than Amherst.
Amherst knows they are a lock for NCAAs, but will also remember they are playing one of the few teams to take points from them.

[All NESCAC]

Amherst will be looking to enact revenge on Hamilton for the earlier tie.  My guess is at least 3 to 0 for Amherst.

[12SNoon]

Decided to join the board when things started to matter.

Predictions:

Amherst 3
Hamilton 0

Tufts 1
Bowdoin 0

Williams 1
Middlebury 0

Wesleyan 2
Conn College 1

[amh63]

All good predictions wrt to the Amherst game.  After a scoreless first half, Amherst surges to a 3-0 lead in the second half.  With many subs in, Amherst goes ahead 4-0 with less than two minutes to go.  Turned the game off.  Final score, Amherst 4, Hamilton 1.

[ECSUalum]

All good predictions wrt to the Amherst game.  After a scoreless first half, Amherst surges to a 3-0 lead in the second half.  With many subs in, Amherst goes ahead 4-0 with less than two minutes to go.  Turned the game off.  Final score, Amherst 4, Hamilton 1.

Congrats, amh63, Amherst has clinched regular season?

[CacCaptain]

http://bennettranking.com/men/d3

Has anyone else seen this computer based (seemingly unbiased) ranking site. Very interesting and takes factors like strength of schedule into account. For example it has Tufts at 8 in the country in large part because they've played the hardest schedule in the nation this season (according to their analytics).

7 Nescac teams in the top 16. If only the NCAA would take a look at this.

[nescac1]

I'd have to think that in addition to Amherst, both Williams (previously ranked fourth in the region, added a second win over Middlebury to strong wins over Conn College, Tufts, and Wesleyan) and Bowdoin (previously ranked third in region, may slip after a rough week but did manage to advance in PKs to the NESCAC semis) are both now in the NCAA tourney.  The two losses to Wesleyan may have knocked Conn out; at best they are barely on the bubble, and Midd is likewise barely on the bubble.  I think Wesleyan (may now be in, may need a result vs. Williams in the NESCAC semis, a win would lock up a berth for sure) will be the fourth NESCAC team in.

In sum, assuming Amherst beats Bowdoin (no lock), I'd say that the NESCAC NCAA picture looks like this: 1. Amherst (in) 2. Winner of Williams/Wesleyan (in) 3. Bowdoin (likely in) 4. Loser of Williams/Wesleyan (if Williams likely in, if Wesleyan on the fence) //// 5. Middlebury (likely out), 6. Conn (likely out).   

[PaulNewman]

Seems overly optimistic.

I would say Bowdoin needs to beat Amherst, and that only winner of Williams vs Wes is in.  Based on results, these teams have relatively mediocre records and some weak results.  If Williams got in at 10-6 that would be very generous with losses to Trinity and Hamilton (and also RPI and Bowdoin).  Wes at 9-6-1 would be a gift, especially with losses to Wheaton, Western New England and Hamilton.  Bowdoin in my view has slightly stronger overall results but still would be very fortunate at 8-4-4.  There is no argument for any of the quarterfinal losers.

I don't see any reasonable argument for the NESCAC getting more than 3 bids, and if they were any other conference not named UAA they wouldn't get more than 2.

I do give the Wesleyan coach credit for overcoming off the field distractions and a 5-4-1 start.

[nescac1]

Look at the last regional rankings:

http://www.nscaatv.com/rankings/2742/NCAADivisionIII/men/NewEngland/Poll9

There are always a lot of at-large teams from New England, which is one of the bigger regions, and a lot of NESCAC teams are among the highly-ranked teams in New England (may be some changes this week, but Bowdoin and Williams will both be in the top six, I'd expect, regionally).  Unless there are a LOT of upsets in conference tourney play (like Gordon and MIT both losing in conference tournaments), there should be at LEAST two and quite possibly three at-large teams from the NESCAC. 

[PaulNewman]

You're looking at the wrong regional rankings.  The NCAA rankings are the ones that count, which is even more generous to Williams (#2 in 11/30 ranking), albeit before the Hamilton loss.  They don't have to take a certain quota from New England, so a 3rd and 4th NESCAC team at least in theory could be competing for a spot with Wartburg or Oberlin or Swat or Haverford or a 3rd NJAC team or whatever.  At least that's my understanding.

[PaulNewman]

http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2013/Men/regional-rankings-2

[nescac1]

Woops, you are right, I was looking at the wrong rankings.  Those do indeed pain a less optimistic picture for NESCAC.  I would think a win vs. Hamilton balanced out a bit by a loss vs. Midd would not cause Williams to drop TOO far -- they should still be in with a result vs. Wesleyan, and have a good shot even with a loss.  Things look bleak for the rest of NESCAC, though.  Bowdoin likely needs at worst a tie vs. Amherst (and maybe even needs a win), and Wesleyan almost certainly needs to beat Williams to make it in. 

[PaulNewman]

For the last published ranking this Weds I would guess Williams will drop a couple of spots, Bowdoin will stay about the same, and Wes could move up a few spots.  And then we won't know the final adjustments after this coming weekend's results.  My prediction is that they get 3.  The third pick will be dicey unless Bowdoin gets to the final in which case my bet is that the Williams vs Wes loser is screwed, although maybe that is the one scenario for a 4th bid if Williams is the semifinal loser.

[All NESCAC]

Amherst is in.  Williams is in win or lose (but they will beat Wesleyan who barely beat Conn in rematch).  3rd team, if any, will be Bowdoin.  3 teams at best from NESCAC this year, but could only be 2 if Amherst destroys Bowdoin in semi's (which is very possible).  NESCAC teams (other than Amherst) took turns beating up on each other greatly decreasing the chances of more than 2 teams this year.  Truthfully there really isn't much difference between any of Williams, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Conn, Middlebury and Tufts as they are all about equal and a coin toss to pick any other team(s) other than Amherst.  This is not to say these teams are not good, because they are, but none of them are consistently good whether its game to game or even half to half.  Good luck to Amherst (god it kills me to say that), but they are the only team with a realistic chance out of NESCAC to get on a run in the NCAA tourney. Very entertaining soccer this year throughout the NESCAC--congratulations to all the teams/players/coaches.