NESCAC

[PaulNewman]

I don't see Williams as automatic unless just based on reputation.  They don't have results that separate them from Bowdoin or Wes.  In fact, those 3 teams have all beaten each other.  Losing to Hamilton at home knowing a lot was on the line in my mind was a real ding.

[LaPaz]

Nothing is based on reputation...1.SOS....2.record vs ranked teams in any of the 3 rankings......3. quality road wins....it mystifies me how you think Bowdoin wont drop after going 0-1-1 this week against an unranked but very good Tufts team and how Williams will drop 3-4 spots..also, remember Wesleyan went 2-0-0 and was ranked 11th last week and won at Bowdoin earlier this year. They will need to beat Williams and at least tie Amherst in final. Williams I think will need to get at least a tie or maybe a win against Wesleyan. Bowdoin needs to win out as I suspect they will have dropped to #11 in regional rankings this week. Brandeis could pass Williams with a win against a ranked Chicago team and a tie against a ranked Wash U and a win that hurts them against Mt.Ida. After that Roger Williams and WNEC will drop MAYBE MAYBE MIT passes Williams and MAYBE Gordon.

[PaulNewman]

I suggested Williams would drop a couple of spots, not 3-4, even though I think they SHOULD drop 3-4.   Bowdoin may drop a spot or two but they also weren't at #2, and a very close away loss to Tufts should be less of an impact than a home loss to Hamilton, especially when a couple of days later Bowdoin advanced against Tufts.  And didn't Bowdoin beat Williams?  And I imagine Wesleyan will move up several spots.  I think Bowdoin could potentially get in beating Amherst and losing the final.  I personally think Williams and Wesleyan need another win.

Brandeis is hard to judge rankings-wise, because they like Dickinson, they stayed high forever even with weak results, and now they with the good weekend they just had I guess they are fine.

What happens with Wheaton, assuming MIT wins the NEWMAC tourney, also will be interesting.  There will be a real mess if someone like Babson wins their tournament and if Gordon doesn't win.

[cacalum]

Agree with La Paz on this one. The problem for the NESCAC this year is that while folks have beaten up on each other 2-8 (which is something that happened in previous years), there are multiple teams in New England with strong records that will get in before the NESCAC 3rd or 4th best team. Forgive me for not looking this up, but the years when the NESCAC has done so well with bids have been years where the league has literally not lost a game out-of-conference or lost very very few. That's an argument that you can win when your 8th place team is smoking the team from a weak conference with a great overall record but not one you can win when your team's in the 2-8 slots tie teams like Thomas or Plymouth State.

Also, folks who know this stuff more than I do, does the Chicago-Brandeis game count in the regional rankings? Forgive my ignorance but I somehow remember this being counted as out-of-region and not included in the regional rankings but incorporated in Pool C discussions? The reason I remember is that I think UAA teams have had pretty loud arguments (rightly-so) in that they were being punished for being in a multi-region conference when it came to regional rankings.  Figured I'd ask the question here as I'm sure someone must have the right info here.

[PaulNewman]

Just realized Bowdoin is all the way down at #8.  Yeah, I don't think a 1 goal away loss to Tufts and then advancing over Tufts moves them down at all and wouldn't be shocked to see them move up a spot or two.  I expect RWU to drop.

[OWUSoccer]

I'd guess three teams get bids - too much beating up on each other and a few other teams in the region outside the NESCAC racking up gaudy records mean that those bubble teams need to pray others take care of their business.

As an aside, wherever those Bennett Rankings came from they're absurd and clearly weighted towards the NESCAC and UAA.  Any ranking that has Tufts (8-5-2, or barely winning more than half of their games) at #8 while Ohio Wesleyan (18-0-2) is #24, York (16-2) is #29 and Salisbury (16-2) is #55 (!!) cannot be taken even remotely seriously.  Maybe even more telling, somehow Colby (4-10, ZERO conference wins) is at #67 (top 20% of all D3 teams), ahead of Kenyon, DePauw, Susquehanna, Texas-Dallas, Dominican, John Carroll, etc.

[Christan Shirk]

Also, folks who know this stuff more than I do, does the Chicago-Brandeis game count in the regional rankings? Forgive my ignorance but I somehow remember this being counted as out-of-region and not included in the regional rankings but incorporated in Pool C discussions? The reason I remember is that I think UAA teams have had pretty loud arguments (rightly-so) in that they were being punished for being in a multi-region conference when it came to regional rankings.  Figured I'd ask the question here as I'm sure someone must have the right info here.

All conference games have always been considered in-region.  That's not in print anywhere that I know, but in practice all conference games, even for multi-region conferences have been included in in-region records.  BUT . . . starting this year, there is no "in-region" criteria.  They have done away with that.  I wrote about it in this column: http://d3soccer.com/columns/around-the-nation/2013/ncaa-regional-rankings-with-new-criteria .  The primiary criteria now includes all D-III opponents regardless of region. 

[LaPaz]

Ok so final regional rankings are out and top teams are getting knocked out of their conference tournaments. Pool C's are dwindling but I still feel New England will get its fair shake. Nescac got screwed a bit. Williams dropping to #5 with a good SOS and a 4-3-1 record against ranked opponents. They have played half there games against ranked opponents.  Not sure how WNEC jumped them. Gordon played 20 games 3 against ranked opponents is 3rd and I guess will get an at large. Even Brandeis, I look at that schedule and do not see any GOOD road wins and ONE GOOD win against a suspect Chicago team. They will get an at-large even being at the bottom of the UAA. Wesleyan deserved better they have the best SOS in the country and finished solo 2nd in Nescac. Bowdoin as suspected was dropped. Bowdoin and Wesleyan must win conference tourney. Amherst all set and Williams is our "bubble" team. Williams must beat Wesleyan and I think they will get in. Amherst must win tournament to have a chance at a NCAA BYE.

Wesleyan vs Williams- I haven't seen Wesleyan since their game against Amherst. Excellent results in last 4 games all 1-0 wins. As usual they are very organized defensively and dangerous on the counter but I still feel this team is very young and have no clear cut goal scorers. I have noticed Issiroff is back but not starting, so that is a good sign as he is dangerous but maybe not fully fit yet. Bratt and Gruner are good backbone players. Keeper when I saw him looked a bit suspect but maybe he is gaining his confidence as he is only a frosh. I still cant believe they shut out CONN twice in same week. Conn has a good attacking team. I am guessing Wesleyan is really sitting in with 4-2-3-1 but really a 4-5-1 defensively. Williams is your Nescac roller coaster team. They work hard and will get chances but can they finish them? Also, looks like they moved Lima( a captain) out of the back. I am guessing he is getting blame for Hamilton loss? Very hard for coaches to do this end of season and keep team harmony. I wonder what is going on inside that locker room.     Toss a coin

Amherst v Bowdoin- Amherst keeps rolling along. They have great size and set pieces and long throws and corners are there game. they are in a 4-3-3 last time I saw them and feel there most dangerous kid could be the frosh Martin. I really like his game as he is blazing fast. Best keeper in league with a solid back 4 with Caslin sitting in front of them. They are tough to break down but still not nearly as dangerous as the 2012 team and someone whether here or in NCAA's will beat them. Amherst beat Bowdoin early in the season but this is a different Bowdoin team. They can match Amherst athletically and Brewster might be the best player on the field. They have switched keepers to a frosh and have another incoming frosh keeper who is good. I think they are weakest in midfield and Amherst will take advantage in the middle of the park. This game will make your eyes sore from its ugliness, so watch with caution as the ball will be in the air 80-85% of time.     Toss a coin

[All NESCAC]

Semi predictions:

Williams over Wesleyan--While Williams has not done a great job at finishing this year much to Coach Russo's dismay they will find a way to play more physical than Wesleyan, and while scoring opportunities don't present themselves often against Wesleyan (ask Conn) Williams will find a way to score as their forwards are rounding into shape.   Wesleyan relies solely on the counter attack and will not get any good opportunities against Williams.  Williams 1 Wesleyan 0.   Another Wesleyan 1 to 0 score, but Wesleyan will be on the wrong end.

Amherst over Bowdoin--Amherst is the clear class  (did I really say that) of the league this year, although their playing style certainly cannot be called first class.  This is not a quality Bowdoin team, a good team--yes, but not nearly as talented or deep as Amherst.  While Bowdoin's record is OK, this is the weakest Bowdoin team in the last 4 years.  Amherst will dominate because they have the talent and physicality to do so.  Amherst 2 Bowdoin 0,  although shots and corners will be dominate in Amherst's favor.   Bowdoin's center back is very good, but he can't cover them all and Amherst will put Bowdoin under siege for most of the day.

Final:  Amherst 2 Williams 1.  Slugfest rematch of last years final, but Amherst finds a way to score twice and Williams can only push one across.

NCAA bids to Amherst and Williams only.  Rest of the League is pretty close, but butchered each other up and too many other great records in other non-NESCAC leagues in New England to ignore.   Now if the NESCAC league allowed their teams to play 4 additional non-league games so they had 18 games, then their possibly could have been more bids (up to 4), but since only 14 games and a year of parity other than Amherst only two bids will emerge.  Good luck to all 4 teams this weekend....who knows maybe there will be some upsets...after all that's why they settle it on the pitch.

[PaulNewman]

What the heck, I'll go the other way.

Bowdoin over Amherst 1-0.  If Lycoming can beat Messiah when outshot 32-2 then Bowdoin can get by Amherst.  Bowdoin played 2 good games with Tufts down the stretch and Tufts may have been closest to Amherst talent-wise.

Wesleyan over Williams in PKs.  Williams just hasn't seemed right, and after some confusing results earlier Wesleyan seems to have some karma on their side.

[12SNoon]

This weekend:

Amherst (2-0) 4 GF, 1 GA

Williams (1-1) 3 GF, 3 GA

Bowdoin (0-1) 0 GF, 2 GA

Wesleyan (0-1) 1 GF, 2 GA

Happy NESCAC Weekend,

SNoon

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Very ugly Amherst-Bowdoin game.  Ball almost never on the ground, as LaPaz predicted, but Aoyama the younger gets it done in 2d OT, 2-1 Lord Jeffs.  Should be another war tomorrow against Williams.

[nescac1]

Mr. Noon nailed the Williams-Wesleyan score and was only off by one goal in Amherst-Bowdoin.  Not too shabby. 

Williams and Amherst are now, I imagine, both locks for the tourney.  Bowdoin and Wesleyan seem to be on the outside looking in. 

[amh63]

Amherst wins the conference title on a good contest over Williams 1-0 at Hitchcock field in Amherst.
The winning score came in the 2nd period around the 40th minute.

[madzillagd]

Only saw about half the match but I did see the winning goal.  My reaction to Morrell's decision making on the sequence of plays that lead to the goal...