NESCAC

[SoccerFollower]

My predictions:
Amherst 2-0 Bowdoin. Amherst will find their feet, and Bowdoin without Brewster will have trouble containing them.

Trinity 1-3 Williams. Williams too complete of a team (even without Rashid) and always find a way to win. Savonen scores early but Willams prevails

Middlebury 1-1 Conn College. Most intriguing game of the weekend for me. Two teams that seem on the verge of making moves up the Nescac. We'll see if one pulls it off but I think they'll draw.

Hamilton 1-0 Bates. This game will be ugly. Hamilton has struggled away from home, but I think Bates will find a way to lose.

Tufts 1-1 Colby. Colby looked like an organized unit against Williams, something tufts hasn't faced yet this year. Given the Tufts state of affairs and playing away from home, I think they tie.

Wesleyan 1-2 Wheaton. Really hard to tell who will win this. Wheaton has yet to be truly challenged, but I think Wesleyan is missing a little bit of firepower/creativity. Giving Wheaton the benefit of the doubt due to their strong start to the year.

[Corazon]

My predictions:
Amherst 2-0 Bowdoin. Amherst will find their feet, and Bowdoin without Brewster will have trouble containing them.

Trinity 1-3 Williams. Williams too complete of a team (even without Rashid) and always find a way to win. Savonen scores early but Willams prevails

Middlebury 1-1 Conn College. Most intriguing game of the weekend for me. Two teams that seem on the verge of making moves up the Nescac. We'll see if one pulls it off but I think they'll draw.

Hamilton 1-0 Bates. This game will be ugly. Hamilton has struggled away from home, but I think Bates will find a way to lose.

Tufts 1-1 Colby. Colby looked like an organized unit against Williams, something tufts hasn't faced yet this year. Given the Tufts state of affairs and playing away from home, I think they tie.

Wesleyan 1-2 Wheaton. Really hard to tell who will win this. Wheaton has yet to be truly challenged, but I think Wesleyan is missing a little bit of firepower/creativity. Giving Wheaton the benefit of the doubt due to their strong start to the year.

Good predictions. My only difference of opinion is that I think Tufts wins by a couple of goals. Despite their turmoil, there is just too big of a gap in talent between the teams.

[LaPaz]

Predictions:

Bowdoin v Amherst-         1-1                    I have said Bowdoin does not look as good on paper as in years past but they are athletic and were a bit unlucky against Wesleyan. I do not like Safian in goal as he is suspect and the back 4 are athletic but not extremely skilled. Diaz Costa in midfield is skilled and Andrew Jones has wheels. Amherst the better team but have struggled a bit out of the gate. Bull looks shaky so far and I do not see a legit goal scorer on this squad as of now. I give the game a tie on a hunch.

Conn v Midd-                   0-0                     This will be a defensive slugfest. Total shots for both teams will be under 15.  Midd has the advantage up front and in goal while Conn has the advantage in midfield ( big O'Brien fan) and on D.

Colby v Tufts-                  0-2                     Tufts has to many weapons and advantages all over the field no matter who is starting and who is not. Colby is def more organized defensively this year and it is quite apparent Serjenian left the new coach with some glorified JV players. Colby has a handful of good Nescac players including Vogel and others but this team needs a couple good recruiting classes before it can compete.

Bates v Hamilton-            0-1                     8 hour bus ride or not, Hamilton leaves Lewiston with a win. The poster below who praised Peabo Knoth and Peraria and also praised Flaherty's recruiting made me laugh out loud for real. Bates is the least talented squad since......well Bates 2013. Hamilton is misssing a key player in Griffin Abbott but still have weapons up front to score.

Williams v Trinity-            2-1                     Williams have struggled recently against Trinity but more so on Trinity's field. Trinity will send players forward and usually play a 4-3-3 with fast wingers and skill up the spine with Tobias and Savonen. Gk is weak and back 4 are big but a tad slow. Williams playing well so far but in my opinion have not played anyone yet and their keeper has not been tested. That will change Saturday. Williasm might have the best D in Nescac with Luke Pierce and Geoff Danilack in the middle and Andreas Burbank-Crump at left back. Murrales is due to score soon as well.

Wheaton(MA) v Wesleyan-     0-1                I am not on the band wagon of Wheaton yet. for all you posters thinking Wheaton is going to win by multiple goals and score 3 or 4 goals you are crazy. Wesleyan has given up a total of 1 goal in 3 games against decent competition. Wesleyan playes very solid organized defense. They dominated Roger Williams last night but could not score, will that change against Wheaton? Again a 7pm Saturday night start is not a smart schedule plan from Wheeler. The crowd will be large and rowdy for sure, they will however go home disappointed.

[Corazon]

La Paz, I always like reading your posts. You are very knowledgeable, have inside info and are not afraid to speak your mind. I hope you'll keep the weekly predictions coming.

I'm curious as to your Bates comment though as I'm the guy who praised Knoth and Pereira but in all candor, I have a soft spot for flair players. I'm not trying to argue as I truly have no axe to grind here but just as you laughed out loud at my comment that I thought Flaherty must be recruiting better as he's brought these two players into the program (he's only had 2 recruiting cycles, I think) I laughed out loud at your past coaching ratings giving Shapiro at Tufts an "A" as I knew about their internal turmoil, his personality and his mediocre recruiting ability (but good classes). Is it possible that Flaherty is a good recruiter but recruits poorly?  Is it possible that Shapiro is a poor recruiter but recruits good classes?  What gives? What are the other forces at work?

Personally, I thought Flaherty was a very good recruiter - he worked really hard and for a long time and showed a lot of passion in son's recruitment but at the end of the day, my guy picked another school for non-soccer reasons.  He was recruited by the majority of the NESCACs so I got to meet most of the coaches and saw most of their correspondence. No matter what anyone says here, personal experience is that Flaherty is a good recruiter - but you say Bates is apparently not recruiting well, which could very well be (though I still like Knoth and Pereira a lot).

I wonder how much of recruiting a coach can control at a school like Bates?  While a great school, it is in a conference of all great schools, is geographically remote, in a not great town, and was left with little talent by his predecessor. Contrasting Bates with a school like Tufts (large,urban, non-Lac) and a coach in Shapiro who you've praised, I saw a vast difference in personality and effort between the two.  I do recognize it is entirely possible that Shapiro didn't rate my son as highly as the other NESCAC coaches, and maybe he actually makes an effort with guys who he likes but the difference between the two in our personal experience, was vast.

I guess my my question is more a philosophical one regarding two teams apparently headed in opposite directions -  Do you need to take into account the difficulty of recruiting into account in addition to the wins and losses when discussing coaching/program effectiveness?

[NESCAC-fanatic00203]

To all the gullible dads who can't sense sarcasm: there is no internal turmoil at Tufts. God forbid a coach has to deal with injuries or brings players off of the bench strategically. It's hilarious how one post can turn into fact so quickly. But glad you all "knew of the turmoil" beforehand.

I agree with you LaPaz- not quite ready to jump on the Wheaton bandwagon. I think wesleyan is too good definitely to collapse and will get a scrappy goal

[CAC2424]

Haha. It is pretty funny.  Let's look at the overreaction on this board (been like this for years) -

Tufts is falling apart. Not true.
Wheaton is all of a sudden a top team in NE. Not True.
Amherst is "sputtering". Not true.
Williams is better off without their best player.  Not True.

All of these things COULD be true but the NESCAC season is less than two weeks old.  Tufts is off to the best start to the season they could ever hope for.  Wheaton is 5-0 but hasn't played anyone yet.  If they beat Wesleyan-then YES- they are for real.  Amherst has won the last four NESCAC Championships. Probably deserve benefit of doubt until they start losing. Williams could be ok but the Rashid injury is a tough pill to swallow. I know 90 percent of the board are Williams fans but Rashid is the real deal.

Weekend Predictions

Conn 3 Midd 1- Devlin is on fire and will score another two on Midd.
Wesleyan 3 Wheaton 1 - Wesleyan totally underrated.  Good team.
Amherst 2 Bowdoin 0.  Another game of bodies flying everywhere.
Williams 1 Trinity 1.  Williams always struggles with Trinity.  Not surgeon this one but hopping for an undefeated weekend for the State of Connecticut. 
Bates 1 Hamilton 1.  Could pick this game either way so went with a tie. 

[nescac1]

Who is saying that Williams is better off without Rashid?  Everyone (or least most everyone) and certainly I said that losing him was a big blow.  The team still has plenty of talent and is still capable for competing for the NESCAC title, but the Ephs will have to really scrap for goals and win a lot of close defensive battles without their most dynamic offensive player.  Here is hoping he can return 100 percent next fall and have better luck with injuries in his last year (or perhaps last two years) of his college career. 

[NESCAC-fanatic00203]

CAC2424 - spot on.

Love all the experts on this page:

"I laughed out loud at your past coaching ratings giving Shapiro at Tufts an "A" as I knew about their internal turmoil, his personality and his mediocre recruiting ability (but good classes)." - Corazon, Tufts Insider

"The past few years Santos has been injured/out of shape and in and out of the starting lineup. We all know Shapiro can be tough, but the players have to take some responsibility. Last year we noticed Hoppenot randomly not starting and now this year Nakamura." - LaPaz, Santos' nutritionist & mind-reader of coaches

"Tufts 1-1 Colby. Colby looked like an organized unit against Williams, something tufts hasn't faced yet this year. Given the Tufts state of affairs and playing away from home, I think they tie." - SoccerFollower, Somerville Correspondent of Internal Affairs

[ihidebehindtheinternet]

Amherst 2 Bowdoin 0

Good luck to Bowdoin trying to out tough Amherst. Think the Lord Jeffs will get absolutely after the Polar Bears on set pieces. I would be scared to be the first team to face the Jeffs if their offense ever comes together after what should be viewed as a disappointing start for them after the last few years.



Trinity 1 Williams 2

Williams is just better especially at home against a young Trinity team who it seemed like had to battle and gut out a tie at Hamilton last week (got outshot 22-11).



Midd 1 Conn 0

Start of what could be a big week for Conn. If they don't lose both games I think that should be a moral victory. Don't know what to expect from Conn after losing POY in Hawkey. Haven't been tested yet (no offense Mitchell and UMass Dartmouth). Giving the edge to Midd here.



Hamilton 2 Bates 0

Did not see any of the Bates Tufts game but just looking at the box score they seem dreadful this year. Best of luck to them getting a win this season.



Tufts 2 Colby 1

Thinking this one could get away from Tufts traveling up to Maine and looking forward to Wes later in the week. Tufts is too superior to Colby to tie/loss but crazier things have happened in Maine.

[PaulNewman]

Two of of a team's arguably best players not starting is at least interesting.    No idea whether that reflects turmoil or not. The most laughable idea was the coach not playing them to keep them secret from coaches for later in the season even though they are probably two of the top 10 most known players in the NESCAC already. Anyway, the season will tell us if Tufts meets expectations or underperforms.

Amherst 3 Bowdoin 0

Williams 2 Trinity 0

Midd 3 Conn 1

Hamilton 2 Bates 1

Tufts 3 Colby 1

Wheaton 3 Wesleyan 2

[PaulNewman]

Corazon, I'm interested in your impressions on the recruitment trail.  In my experience among a handful of NESCAC coaches Wheeler at Wesleyan was the most responsive.  It is interesting that the schools that tend to be at the top of the NESCAC presumably have the highest hurdles to clear in terms of admissions.  And despite its remote location IMHO Colby is such a desirable school that I would think Colby would do much better.  Bates seems like a slightly tougher sell.

[All NESCAC]

Amherst 2 Bowdoin 0

Good luck to Bowdoin trying to out tough Amherst. Think the Lord Jeffs will get absolutely after the Polar Bears on set pieces. I would be scared to be the first team to face the Jeffs if their offense ever comes together after what should be viewed as a disappointing start for them after the last few years.



Trinity 1 Williams 2

Williams is just better especially at home against a young Trinity team who it seemed like had to battle and gut out a tie at Hamilton last week (got outshot 22-11).



Midd 1 Conn 0

Start of what could be a big week for Conn. If they don't lose both games I think that should be a moral victory. Don't know what to expect from Conn after losing POY in Hawkey. Haven't been tested yet (no offense Mitchell and UMass Dartmouth). Giving the edge to Midd here.



Hamilton 2 Bates 0

Did not see any of the Bates Tufts game but just looking at the box score they seem dreadful this year. Best of luck to them getting a win this season.



Tufts 2 Colby 1

Thinking this one could get away from Tufts traveling up to Maine and looking forward to Wes later in the week. Tufts is too superior to Colby to tie/loss but crazier things have happened in Maine.

I like the picks above with two changes 1) Tufts will score 3 vs Colby, and 2) Midd/Conn 1-1 tie.

[LaPaz]

Bates is indeed the toughest school to recruit to in Nescac for reasons brought up on this board before. However, I have heard players quitting on this squad including Nick Ford who was a fast winger type player who was decent. If the coach was better or the team was better maybe he would have stuck it out. Flaherty has had 3 recruiting cycles and I SEE NOTHING of substance in any one of them. Usually you can stumble across a player or 2. His GKing is horrible, backs are slow and can be beaten, there is no creativity in midfield and his strikers cannot hold the ball up or beat anyone 1v1. Purgavie might have gotten lazy at the end but he always recruited some decent players. The last one, John Murphy, was an exceptional Nescac player who was maybe the taker of free kicks in the league. I do not see these "game changers" in the current Bates squad.

I did give Shapiro an "A" over the summer and that might have been a mistake but you have to understand the dire straits that Ferrigno left this program in and Shapiro basically turned it around in 2 recruiting classes and made the NCAA's. That in itself is remarkable. The great thing about some turmoil in a team that is winning is that it can be ignored. If Tufts can get by Wesleyan at home and Brandeis on the road they could be 7-0 before Amherst. The game last year between Tufts and Amherst was an absolute sh*t show by Amherst players and Tufts parents and then Amherst parents which in turn became the trigger for the "damn" letter to Nescac parents that has this FOX News and its listeners in a tizzy.

[amh63]

This board has been most interesting this season to me...a real novice in understanding the sport....truly.  A city boy with no knowledge of the game...going up to Amherst when the varsity schedule had Harvard and UConn.  Played a bit...no...tried to play.  Had the speed but no skills to speak of. 
Anyway, it is nice ...but still puzzling that so many posters will make "predictions" of the games ahead.
Last night, I discussed some soccer...World Cup games...with two knowledgeable former players.  Wait...I mostly listened.  One, the father of a daughter in law who was an UVA recruited player and the other a player from Holland who is a friend of one of my sons.  Both men played in different systems/ styles.   In short, both men are still puzzled on the outcome of key games.
In short/ summary,  I enjoy the banter and the predictions and may watch more games in the future.

[Corazon]

Corazon, I'm interested in your impressions on the recruitment trail.  In my experience among a handful of NESCAC coaches Wheeler at Wesleyan was the most responsive.  It is interesting that the schools that tend to be at the top of the NESCAC presumably have the highest hurdles to clear in terms of admissions.  And despite its remote location IMHO Colby is such a desirable school that I would think Colby would do much better.  Bates seems like a slightly tougher sell.

Hi NCAC New England,

I had actually posted an account of what we saw on the recruiting trail over the summer with ratings of the various NESCAC (6 of the 11 recruited him) coaches, but I took it down a few minutes after posting. I was uncomfortable rating peoples' performance when we were only 1 data point and while it is a hobby to most of us on this board, it is a profession for the coaches. I wouldn't like it if some anonymous poster rated by job performance either! 

Wes did not recruit him, but I've met Geoff Wheeler in non soccer settings and he seemed to be a great guy. Have heard good things about him, too.

Enjoy the games this weekend.