NESCAC

[All NESCAC]

Sure, once the dam breaks and a lot of people are beating you then the edge evaporates.  But until the perennial underdog breaks down the door the edge is still there.  And I think last year proves the point (and even the last 2 years).  Williams had no business being in the Final Four and yet there they were, back-to-back.  Don't think there wasn't a little doubt in the minds of even Amherst in those Elite 8 games?  And outside of Amherst, can you picture any other NESCAC with the relative talent that Williams had going to Final Fours back-to-back?

Gun to your head...assuming both teams equal in every way, who do you give the nod to in a NESCAC semifinal match, Conn College or Williams?

NCAC New England--"gun to the head"--depends on two items--who has home field and who is healthier.  Given that Rashid and Westling won't be back due to injury and it looks like Conn is getting healthier edge is to Conn.   If game is in Williams then slight edge to Ephs, if game is in New London then edge to Camels.   Conn (who plays a lot of Sr's and Jrs) has played Williams very close over the last 5 years and while I'm sure they respect the Ephs there is no OMG factor of playing the Purple Cows.  Neutral site I'll take the healthier team as both teams have talent. I don't think there is any OMG factor in the NESCAC this year for any team.  Only recent team which had the OMG factor was in 2012 with that  Amherst team which was absolutely loaded, and yet they were beaten by Williams (you can throw out the OMG factor in a rivalry game of Eph vs Lord Jeff).  I don't believe within the NESCAC there really is any OMG factor as they are so familiar with each other and they all believe they can beat any other team in the NESCAC (ie. See Colby and Bates) and also lose to any other team (ie. see Middlebury and Trinity).   I'm sure all the teams in the New England region would have some OMG feeling if they play Messiah, but other than Messiah no one else in the country has any mystique or fear factor. 

[blooter442]

NCAC New England--"gun to the head"--depends on two items--who has home field and who is healthier.  Given that Rashid and Westling won't be back due to injury and it looks like Conn is getting healthier edge is to Conn.   If game is in Williams then slight edge to Ephs, if game is in New London then edge to Camels.

My thoughts exactly.

Keep in mind that, two years ago against the "loaded" Amherst team, Amherst hit the crossbar five times in that game (which ended 0-0.) Last year was more even, but Williams definitely rode their luck both years; I'm not sure that it was the "fear factor" that got them there. I simply believe that, on both occasions, they were rather fortunate, rather than benefiting from a fear factor. That said, we all know that soccer is a funny game, and whoever finishes their chances will win that given match on that given day—Amherst didn't finish their chances, and Williams did.

[PaulNewman]

Just to be clear, the edge on Amherst is different.  It's not a "fear factor" but there is still a hurdle there.  If they ended up playing again this year in an Elite 8 game, after Amherst has beaten them in the regular season and in the NESCAC tournament, you won't convince me that Amherst wouldn't have a little doubt in their minds about how fate might play out.  Just like probably the majority of us thought just before the Elite 8 kicked off last year.

You can call it luck or very odd coincidence that Williams went to consecutive final 4s when they were not clearly the best team, but it sure is strange that the team for whom fate fell for just happened to be Williams.

[Saint of Old]

Williams does indeed have a psychological edge.
The saying "Whatever man has done man can do" applies to Williams because they have already won the big one.

This fact cannot be underrated.

Williams won it all in '95 and has been a national threat since.
Wheaton won in '84 then  '97 for the 2nd time and has been a National threat since
Messiah won in 00 and ditto.
OWU won its first in 98 then again in 11
SLU pulled the trick in '99.

Winning the whole thing does not make a team win automatically, it makes a team believe it can.

That's where the edge comes from.

Teams who have been to the mountaintop before feel as though they can go again.
That belief is what gives them the edge.

If and when Amherst, Loras, Stevens watch out, because their players will be even more confident after seeing the alum come back to campus with rings.

[PaulNewman]

Thank you Saint of Old.  I was beginning to think no one believes in the concept of a psychological hurdle or edge in sports.

[MENESCACFAN]

NCAC

I thought Man U was tough to beat when they were the best, how is that jersey helping them last season and right now?  How did those pinstripes help the Yankees make the postseason in Jeter's last season when it just had to happen right?

You will only win if you have the best players.  Tradition is nice, but United are a team outside the EPL top four and the Yankees are not he outside of the playoffs looking in. 

Messiah are good right now because they have the best players.  If you put the Bates/Colby kids in those Williams jerseys, they wouldn't suddenly win.  It is a silly concept to suggest otherwise.

[MENESCACFAN]

Also NCAC this "Fear" you speak of, is it seasonal?  Amherst faced Williams in NESCAC title games and beat them.  Did this "fear" disappear, only to return weeks later?

You discredit the talent of Rashid, Westling, Muralles and even Russo suggesting some mystical force achieved those things.  It is talented players working hard, and an intelligent coaching staff doing their jobs well.  It is not mystique, aura and witchcraft.

[All NESCAC]

Thank you Saint of Old.  I was beginning to think no one believes in the concept of a psychological hurdle or edge in sports.

No one said we didn't believe such an edge exists in sports......it does but IMHO there is  no aura about Williams men's soccer team.

[MENESCACFAN]

^ agreed.

[MENESCACFAN]

TRINITY @ BOWDOIN

High stakes playoff game in Brunswick, Maine.  Trinity currently hold the #8 spot with Bowdoin one point behind.  Trinity will play without their top scorer Savonen in all probability due to a situation that suggests some unrest behind the scenes in Hartford.

Bowdoin are ticking along in solid if not spectacular fashion.  Having watched Trinity blown away by Bates last weekend, I would predict winger Andrew Jones and solid defender Nabil Odulate to lift the Polar Bears to a vital win here.

PREDICTION:  Trinity 0 Bowdoin 1

WESLEYAN @ COLBY

"Ruthless" and "efficient" are words that come to mind when I think of Wesleyan.  Their relentless ability to grind out results reminds me of the great Italian club sides of the 1980's.  While I am sure Colby are flying high aftr last week's win over Middlebury, Thomas reminded them in midweek they have a way to go.

A well played game likely to be settled by a set play goal for the Cardinals.

PREDICTION:  Wesleyan 1 Colby 0

CONN COLLEGE @ BATES

Conn seem to be banged up but getting guys back at the right time, they certainly are a talented group.  The Bobcats have recently showed signs of salvaging their frankly horrendous season.

Upset of the week to be Bats grinding out a 0-0 draw that lifts them from the foot of the table, and keeps Conn in the think of the playoff spots.

PREDICTION:  Conn College 0 Bates 0

TUFTS @ MIDDLEBURY

Heat breaking loss for Middlebury in midweek to be followed up in midweek by  a visit of the most talented Tufts I have seen in my time following the league.  The Panthers back line does not blow me away, and Tufts just have too many options to score from too many different areas of the field.

PREDICTION:  Tufts 3 Middlebury 1

HAMILTON @ AMHERST

The Amherst juggernaut rolls on, and I do not see it stopping this week.  Hamilton are always a game opponent, and will have their chances but the energy, depth and strength of Amherst to give them another 3 points as we enter the second half of the season.

Hamilton players to be checking their phones on bus ride home hoping the teams behind them dropped points in the playoff race.  The Hamilton left back should have fits dealing with Chris Martin, though their center back Buck Reynolds is a quality player.

PREDICTION:  Hamilton 0 Amherst 2

WILLIAMS @ SKIDMORE

Williams did their most important work this week v Middlebury, but I would expect them to keep up the good vibes with a win over a good opponent by name, who sen to have had some down results this fall.

PREDICTION:  Williams 2 Skidmore 1

[PaulNewman]

MENESCACFAN, no diminishing of Williams is intended.  And they did just go to back-to-back final 4s.  If they have a full year or 2 of middling results then there will be no edge.  Right now there still is even if fading.  Man U had a 20 year run where there was an edge.  It's easy to use that as an example now.  And there was far less pressure on Amherst in a NESCAC tourney final than an elite 8 game.  Don't understand the pushback on this at all.  It's phenomenon that we see in sports every single week.  Let me remind you that last year at this same time there was absolutely no reason to believe that Williams was headed to another final 4.  Ask Serpone who he would least like to play in an elite 8 game this year....Williams, Tufts, Middlebury, or Wesleyan.

[LaPaz]

Williams has missed one Nescac final four in 13 years. CONN HAS NEVER MADE A NESCAC FINAL FOUR. In the end, Conn will NOT have a home game on the first playoff weekend.

[MENESCACFAN]

You are diminishing it though.  They went on a run of form and invested hours of energy into a great season.  If a team gets out of the NESCAC, it is never a shock to see them go far, at least to me.

You suggest you give any kid a Williams jersey so they win, that is fairytale nonsense.  Because of the Williams success in the past, the kids in that jersey tend to be the better kids, and that is why runs of dominance are created.  If the jersey and mystique alone did it, dynasties would never end, and Manchester United would sit atop the EPL.  In fact no they wouldn't, because they would never have moved past Liverpool under Ferguson, as back then Liverpool wore the magical fairytale jersey and had the mystique and aura.

[PaulNewman]

Sorry I mentioned what I originally said, as this is getting tedious and my guess is that we don't really disagree.  You have made a straw man out of what is a rather common dynamic in sports.  And I never suggested anything close to putting all the Bates players in a Williams jersey would make them national contenders.

[All NESCAC]

Williams has missed one Nescac final four in 13 years. CONN HAS NEVER MADE A NESCAC FINAL FOUR. In the end, Conn will NOT have a home game on the first playoff weekend.

LaPaz, don't get me wrong I am a very big Williams fan, but all good things eventually come to an end.  You sound like the Yankee's fans of the 1990's and early 2000's chanting "1918" when the Red Sox never won a World Series in 85 years....well you know that story.  Williams could go on a run and win the NESCAC tourney.  Conn could keep hitting cross bars and posts and miss the playoffs.  But there is no aura to the Williams men's soccer team.  I was very happy for their Final Four runs the past two years....somehow they got it done and kept winning.
I certainly expect Williams to be in the thick of it for the NESCAC playoffs as I do Conn.   Certainly all roads lead to Amherst which is the best team I've seen this year.  Yet the talent across the NESCAC has been slowly evening out the past 5 years and with it there is no unbeatable team this year.  Yes Amherst and Tufts seem to  have a little more firepower than the rest, but there is no dominate team this year.  Who knows maybe it will be a year 2004 story for someone not named Amherst or Williams this year.