NESCAC

[Off Pitch]

Oh I see how you operate pick and choose the wins and losses you want.

You can't have it both ways.  You are the one that totally dismisses results vs. weak competition when discussing Gordon, Coast Guard, WPI et al.   But if you think weak teams should be treated equally for NESCAC schools fine.  Let's stick with the NCAA hopeful's winning rate of 55% against ALL non-NESCAC competition.  Gordon has won 80% against non-NESCAC competition, and you assert that they are overrated.  The NESCAC teams competing with Gordon for a tournament spot have fared worse.

[Off Pitch]

Please post Gordons results and Tufts results next to each other. There is not one sane person(that doesnt include yourself) that would pick Gordon over Tufts...You are really bad at losing arguments

Tufts is ranked #3, Gordon #8.  Gordon is not going to be picked over Tufts.  Gordon might very well be selected over Middlebury, Wesleyan or Willams.

[Off Pitch]

This is not an "argument" about Gordon, it is a recognition that the top NESCAC teams have not been as successful against non-NESCAC schools this season as any other season in memory.   

[Mr.Right]

Please post Gordons results and Tufts results next to each other. There is not one sane person(that doesnt include yourself) that would pick Gordon over Tufts...You are really bad at losing arguments

Tufts is ranked #3, Gordon #8.  Gordon is not going to be picked over Tufts.  Gordon might very well be selected over Middlebury, Wesleyan or Willams.

I do not think so. The CCC is a one shot pony this year. Its win out or bust but lets agree to disagree for now until the NCAA selections are made.

[Mr.Right]

Oh I see how you operate pick and choose the wins and losses you want.

  Let's stick with the NCAA hopeful's winning rate of 55% against ALL non-NESCAC competition.  Gordon has won 80% against non-NESCAC competition, and you assert that they are overrated.  The NESCAC teams competing with Gordon for a tournament spot have fared worse.

If you are so adamant about this 80% to 55% thing, I honestly have lost track of what we are arguing about, please include and match the schedules of Wesleyan, Williams and Midd. Are you arguing that Gordon's schedule is more difficult than Williams, Midd or Wesleyan? Please enlighten us

[Off Pitch]

Mr. Right, this is not about Gordon.  Another poster opined that Amherst was the team to beat, leaving Tufts, Wesleyan, Middlebury and Williams hoping for an at-large selection to the NCAA tournament.  I looked at those teams specifically to see how they had done out of conference.  It turns out that these four teams who are legitimate NCAA tournament candidates won only 50% of their games against non-NESCAC competition (which is the correct % by the way).

I observed that a 50% collective win rate by these NCAA hopefuls was not typical of NESCAC's historic domination of other teams in the region.  It is a reasonable sample size of 20 games.  Why these NESCAC teams have only won 50% of these games is open to conjecture.  I believe the NESCAC is down a little this year.  Alternatively, the NESCAC might be the same as always and other teams in the region are improving.  Either way, drawing conclusions for this season only, there seems to be more parity than usual in New England. 

This is not an attack on the NESCAC.  This is an observation about the conference and the environment in which it competes for NCAA tournament spots.

[Off Pitch]

The New England data sheet is out.  Here are the SOS for the ranked teams

1. Brandeis        0.637
2. Coast Guard  0.559
3. Tufts              0.617
4. Amherst         0.596
5. Wheaton        0.589
6. Babson          0.608
7. Wesleyan      0.616
8. Gordon          0.564
9. Middlebury     0.559
10. Williams       0.606
11. WPI             0.515

So WPI has the weakest schedule to date as expected.  Coast Guard, Middlebury, Gordon, Wheaton and Amherst are also below 0.600

[All NESCAC]

Mr. Right, this is not about Gordon.  Another poster opined that Amherst was the team to beat, leaving Tufts, Wesleyan, Middlebury and Williams hoping for an at-large selection to the NCAA tournament.  I looked at those teams specifically to see how they had done out of conference.  It turns out that these four teams who are legitimate NCAA tournament candidates won only 50% of their games against non-NESCAC competition (which is the correct % by the way).

I observed that a 50% collective win rate by these NCAA hopefuls was not typical of NESCAC's historic domination of other teams in the region.  It is a reasonable sample size of 20 games.  Why these NESCAC teams have only won 50% of these games is open to conjecture.  I believe the NESCAC is down a little this year.  Alternatively, the NESCAC might be the same as always and other teams in the region are improving.  Either way, drawing conclusions for this season only, there seems to be more parity than usual in New England. 

This is not an attack on the NESCAC.  This is an observation about the conference and the environment in which it competes for NCAA tournament spots.

Off Pitch it's a combo---NESCAC has no dominant teams this year (good teams, but no great teams) and other New England non-NESCAC teams are getting better.   The overall winning % for non-league NESCAC games is down compared to the last 3 or 4 years....that said I don't see Coast Guard or Gordon doing anything in the NCAA's...Tufts & Amherst have a much better chance to win a few NCAA games than do either CG or Gordon (assuming they get in).  I still believe Brandeis is the best team in New England this season and could have the longest run in the post season.

[Brother Flounder]

I have to agree with ALL NESCAC for the most part I do see Amherst and Tufts having an equal chance as Brandeis, barring injuries.  I watched the Brandeis Tufts game and despite the 2-0 score, Tufts played well in that game and controlled a majority of the play, until they pushed guys forward to try to equalize the 0-1 score.  That's when Brandeis scored the second goal.  FWIW, at this stage, I can't see Coast Guard even sniffing a win against Amherst of Tufts.....

[Off Pitch]

Mostly agree.  I have seen 8 of the ranked teams in person this year, but I have NOT seen Amherst.  Otherwise, Brandeis is the most complete team.  The are talented, play good soccer and are more physical than in years past.  I believe they are final 4 material.  Tufts is not very far behind.  Wheaton is a very dangerous team that could beat anyone in the region, but they are probably not built for a sustained run in the tournament.

[oldonionbag]

Hi all,

First time poster here, but have been following the NESCAC (and to a lesser extent other NE conferences) for the past decade or so. Figured I should create an account just as the postseason picture starts shaping up!

Anyway, interesting NSCAA National rankings this past week IMO, especially with regards to the New England region. Regardless of USCGA's ranking (I'll let off-pitch and Mr. Right debate that  ), Tufts not receiving votes really surprised me. I've seen them play once in person, and once online, and they look like a very talented (and deep) squad all around. Up the middle, the two big centerbacks work well together and are quick for their size, the CMs (Kayne esp) control play well, and distribute the ball to -take your pick- any number of dangerous wingers and forwards (Santos, Hoppenot, etc).

I did a cursory overview of the D3 regional rankings SOS in each region (by cursory overview, I mean I scrolled quickly down the list for each region), and found that Tufts has the 4th highest SOS in D3. (feel free to correct this, but I think it's right).

1)Chicago .646
2) Brandeis .637
3) North Central .622
4) Tufts .617 (ironically that's the Boston area code, too)

Their only loss comes to Brandeis, at Brandeis. Sure, one iffy tie (MIT), but it seems as though they dominated that game looking at the stat sheet. How does the NSCAA ranking miss them?  A very dangerous "underdog" come tournament time, especially if they keep flying under the radar to teams from other regions. Would NOT want to meet them in the first game if I'm a team that's unfamiliar with their quality...I think they could make a good run in the NCAAs if they continue to play this well.

[Off Pitch]

Coast Guard will drop for next week and Tufts will no longer be under the radar. 

[Brother Flounder]

Hi all,

First time poster here, but have been following the NESCAC (and to a lesser extent other NE conferences) for the past decade or so. Figured I should create an account just as the postseason picture starts shaping up!

Anyway, interesting NSCAA National rankings this past week IMO, especially with regards to the New England region. Regardless of USCGA's ranking (I'll let off-pitch and Mr. Right debate that  ), Tufts not receiving votes really surprised me. I've seen them play once in person, and once online, and they look like a very talented (and deep) squad all around. Up the middle, the two big centerbacks work well together and are quick for their size, the CMs (Kayne esp) control play well, and distribute the ball to -take your pick- any number of dangerous wingers and forwards (Santos, Hoppenot, etc).

I did a cursory overview of the D3 regional rankings SOS in each region (by cursory overview, I mean I scrolled quickly down the list for each region), and found that Tufts has the 4th highest SOS in D3. (feel free to correct this, but I think it's right).

1)Chicago .646
2) Brandeis .637
3) North Central .622
4) Tufts .617 (ironically that's the Boston area code, too)

Their only loss comes to Brandeis, at Brandeis. Sure, one iffy tie (MIT), but it seems as though they dominated that game looking at the stat sheet. How does the NSCAA ranking miss them?  A very dangerous "underdog" come tournament time, especially if they keep flying under the radar to teams from other regions. Would NOT want to meet them in the first game if I'm a team that's unfamiliar with their quality...I think they could make a good run in the NCAAs if they continue to play this well.

Onion Bag, from my viewing this year you are spot on about Tufts and there have been many posts here about their style of soccer (technical, pretty, etc.), and their midfielders and center backs this year.  However, once tourney time starts, u never know what can happen. Injuries and returning players have something to do with it.  Tufts played Vassar 2 years ago in the first round of the tourney and completely dominated them but lost 0-1 in overtime.  I was at the game.  I seem to remember that Kayne was a freshman and had many shots.  Nothing fell.  On the other hand, Williams moved farther than Amherst even though Amherst probably had the better team over the last few years.  You just  never know....

[oldonionbag]

Very true. Especially with the physicality of the NESCAC tournament on the horizon, there could be some players banged up heading into NCAAs. I also think the NESCAC tourney will be more brutal than ever, since the bubble teams from the conference (Williams, Midd, Wesleyan, maybe Bowdoin?) are going to have to fight tooth and nail to prove themselves worthy of a bid.

One of those three teams will have to make the final to warrant any discussion of an at-large (if they don't in fact win the championship game). I can only see the NESCAC getting at most three teams into the NCAAs this year.

I know it's unlikely (although with the NESCAC you never know)...but what if Amherst and Tufts (our two assumed locks for the NCAAs) fail to make the finals, and any of those two (Williams, Midd, Wes, Bowdoin) do instead. Is that a scenario in which the NESCAC could potentially get 4 bids?

I know I'm jumping way ahead...but just wanted to have a little fun with hypotheticals Anyway, a great weekend of soccer awaits! Excited to hear all of your predictions.

[Brother Flounder]

Well, there are still regular season games to play in the NESCAC so not sure if anyone is a lock for NCAA's yet, but if Amherst and Tufts win out, I can't see either of them not making the NCAA's, even if they lost in the Nescac tourney, especially Tufts with their SOS.......