NESCAC

[PaulNewman]

The cards counting from a suspended game make sense when you think about it from pov of a red card.  In other words, should a player not be accountable for a red card able offense just because game is suspended?

[Mr.Right]

Predictions:

Wes at Midd- Lets remember Wesleyan played a 60 minute game on Wednesday and a 90 minute game yesterday. They have a 4 1/2 - 5 hour bus ride today and then an 11am game tomorrow against Midd. Their goalie McConnell is out from the red card and they will be starting most likely a keeper that has never played before. Midd is coming off a humiliating loss to Castleton St (maybe for the first time ever) and will be extra jacked. Home playoff game on the line. You are correct this game will be artery clogged in the midfield with few shots for either side but Midd prevails. 2-0 Midd

Williams at Bates- I cannot agree with any of you that Bates gets a result here. Williams is down but not that down. Bates has played better of late, i'll give you that but they do not have the talent to match Williams. Williams only issue will be can they finish the numerous chances they get? Williams is also 1-4-0 on the road which is cause for concern. I do not think Williams has lost to Bates since the mid 90's and it will not happen here. 2-0 Williams

Conn at Trinity- Conn are really struggling. They need to sack that keeper and give someone else a shot. He has basically lost them 3 games this year. They still have some good talent even with all the injuries. Trinity will have some tired legs but Pilger substitutes freely and does have better depth than Conn. Complete toss up but I say Conn 2-1

Bowdoin at Colby- Does Bowdoin have injuries or was he really resting all those players against Babson. If he was resting them then why even play Babson at all? If they are injured than Bowdoin is screwed. Diaz Costa I like but I do not see much else on this side. Colby as we have said over and over is organized defensively but still anemic up front. Bowdoin is basically locked in the #6 seed. I say Bowdoin 1-0

Hamilton at Tufts- This will be my upset special. If anyone watched the Hamilton v Oneonta st game you would be hard pressed to not think Hamilton wasnt the #4 team in the country. They outplayed Oneonta in every facet and had about 5 golden chances to score but the keeper made some incredible saves for Oneonta. I was really unimpressed with Oneonta after that effort. They are not a final 4 team unless that keeper plays out of his mind like that every game. Hamilton will score and Tufts short field might help them. Hamilton needs a sharp and focused keeper and they can get a result here. 1-0 Hamilton

[Mr.Right]

The cards counting from a suspended game make sense when you think about it from pov of a red card.  In other words, should a player not be accountable for a red card able offense just because game is suspended?

Yes....Should a player not have his goal taken away if a game is suspended. Either count the game or do not count the game. Not lets keep track of  this but not that

[All NESCAC]

Predictions:

Wes at Midd- Lets remember Wesleyan played a 60 minute game on Wednesday and a 90 minute game yesterday. They have a 4 1/2 - 5 hour bus ride today and then an 11am game tomorrow against Midd. Their goalie McConnell is out from the red card and they will be starting most likely a keeper that has never played before. Midd is coming off a humiliating loss to Castleton St (maybe for the first time ever) and will be extra jacked. Home playoff game on the line. You are correct this game will be artery clogged in the midfield with few shots for either side but Midd prevails. 2-0 Midd

Williams at Bates- I cannot agree with any of you that Bates gets a result here. Williams is down but not that down. Bates has played better of late, i'll give you that but they do not have the talent to match Williams. Williams only issue will be can they finish the numerous chances they get? Williams is also 1-4-0 on the road which is cause for concern. I do not think Williams has lost to Bates since the mid 90's and it will not happen here. 2-0 Williams

Conn at Trinity- Conn are really struggling. They need to sack that keeper and give someone else a shot. He has basically lost them 3 games this year. They still have some good talent even with all the injuries. Trinity will have some tired legs but Pilger substitutes freely and does have better depth than Conn. Complete toss up but I say Conn 2-1

Bowdoin at Colby- Does Bowdoin have injuries or was he really resting all those players against Babson. If he was resting them then why even play Babson at all? If they are injured than Bowdoin is screwed. Diaz Costa I like but I do not see much else on this side. Colby as we have said over and over is organized defensively but still anemic up front. Bowdoin is basically locked in the #6 seed. I say Bowdoin 1-0

Hamilton at Tufts- This will be my upset special. If anyone watched the Hamilton v Oneonta st game you would be hard pressed to not think Hamilton wasnt the #4 team in the country. They outplayed Oneonta in every facet and had about 5 golden chances to score but the keeper made some incredible saves for Oneonta. I was really unimpressed with Oneonta after that effort. They are not a final 4 team unless that keeper plays out of his mind like that every game. Hamilton will score and Tufts short field might help them. Hamilton needs a sharp and focused keeper and they can get a result here. 1-0 Hamilton

Mr Right I hope you are right (this time I had to say it) regarding Conn vs Trinity...Conn has to get a W on Saturday.

[ECSUalum]

For what it's worth, if you take the NE data sheet and simply multiply the winning % by the SOS and sort the result, here would be the standings (actual ranking in parentheses):

1. Brandeis (1)
2. Coast Guard (2)
3. Amherst (4)
4. Wheaton (5)
5. Tufts (3)
6. Gordon (8)
7. Babson (6)
8. Wesleyan (7)
9. WPI (11)
10. Middlebury (9)
11. Nichols
12. Eastern CT St
13. UMass-Boston
14. U of NE
15. Johnson & Wales
16. Williams (10)
17. Bowdoin
23. Trinity

The only teams actually ranked higher than this simple projection (Tufts, Babson, Wesleyan, Williams) are coincidentally the teams with SOS over .600.   A strong SOS seems to be rewarded as opposed to a weak SOS being penalized.

Since it is getting closer and closer to Conference and NCAA tournament time I thought it would be very interesting to see how these teams rank in goals against average and save percentage for their GK's. As I have seen over the past couple of years a lot of close NCAA tournament games have been lost by dumb GK mistakes that cost their teams their entire season. In the close games I am a firm believer that the team with the better defense almost always win. Anyway for time management I am just going to be looking at the top 15 teams that you have listed. I do acknowledge that the goals against stat might be flawed a little since that is also partially determined by who a team plays. But just for good fun here it goes

Ranks for Goals Against Average:
1. Brandeis .26
2. WPI .33
3. Coast Guard .39
4. Tufts .44
5. Eastern Conn .51
6. Amherst .59
7. Midd .65
8. Nichols .73
9. Wheaton .75
    Johnson and Wales .75
    Gordon .75
12. Wesleyan .77
13. UNE .89
14. Babson 1.13
15. Umass Boston 1.33

Ranks for Save percentage (For teams who split keepers equally I did an average between the two keepers. For teams that have one main keeper I took the main keepers average.... not going to post names of the keepers):
1. Coast Guard .909
2. Eastern Conn .899
3. Brandeis .897
4. UNE .890
5. WPI .886
6. JWU .850
7. Wesleyan .833
8. Gordon .830
    Midd .830
10. Amherst .826
11. Nichols .825
12. Wheaton .824
13. Tufts .800
14. Babson .776
15. Umass Boston .750



Take what you want from this but I feel as though this shows how strong MOST of the top teams in New England are to score on. I just thought it would be some interesting stats to throw out there

Alo35,
Nice job putting together these stats, looks like we have quite a few excellent keepers in NE, +k.  BTW to edit go to upper right hand corner at top of your original post and click on the 'modify" icon.  This will bring the post back for you to edit/modify.

[Mr.Right]

Amherst v Mount Saint Mary- 2-2 Final score. A game filled with deflection goals, 2:1 Fouls to shots, red cards, hard fouls, last second goals. Amherst soccer in a nut shell. Luckily Amherst scored with 49 seconds left or this could have been a disaster. This result will not hurt them but Amherst needs to wake up a bit here as they are starting to look beatable. Not since 2009 and 2010 has Amherst looked this vulnerable. Amherst was struggling to score to start the year but recently have been struggling defensively and giving up goals. Bull has not been his usually stellar self this year.

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, you've indicated you're not too impressed with some of the teams that have been highly ranked.  Who do you think are the top 5-6 teams after Messiah? 

[Mr.Right]

Honestly I am not sure because I have not seen some of the top teams play yet. I liked Trinity(TX) the one game I saw them but they are a crap shoot in the NCAA's. I have not seen any teams out west. I wish we could go back a decade or two when the west had some power house teams. UC San Diego in the late 80's thru the mid 90's before they went D2 was a legit D3 team molded like a D1 team. Redlands and UC Santa Cruz in the early 2000's were legit teams. Just recently the west has dropped off significantly and I would like to know why.

[Mr.Right]

Sorry I went off topic and forgot to respond to the question. The teams I have seen are very good top 25 teams but in my opinion are not Final 4 material. Kenyon seem stout defensively but lack any scoring punch. They would be a top 4 team in Nescac but that is it.  They are perfect for Nescac.  New England players, lack of scoring punch, physical in the back, good GK. They would help Nescac as well as they do try to play futbol but lack a striker who can finish against good teams.

[Mr.Right]

I guess it is frustrating because Messiah is so much better than the lot. Parity is king right now and anyone can be beaten in the NCAA's. I still like Trinty(TX), Loras, Kenyon, F&M, Tufts. Loras is still there because I like their team speed and toughness and willingness to battle for 90 minutes. They are very tough to play against. The others I threw in there but could all be beaten at any time. Oneonta, Brandeis, St.Lawrence are teams I have seen that are not quite up to snuff. SLU to many injuries and Brandeis will lose a couple more games with 3 remaining on the road. To me everyone says Nescac is down this year, and it is but the UAA is also down and those teams are beating each other up. How Rochester gets regionally ranked over and over bothers me. Coach Apple must present great arguments for his side before he steps out of the room when his team is being considered. Emory 1-3-0 in the league and gets regionally ranked despite a weak southern schedule. I saw Loras play Chicago and Chicago was getting man handled in that particular game. I liked Carneige Mellon and I thought they were the better team vs Brandeis. Have not seen Case Western but they have some impressive results. NYU I saw play Emory and was not impressed by either team. If only NYU went out and stuck their nuts out and played one of the many decent teams right near them, I would start giving them some credit. The way the coach schedules his out of conference schedule is ridiculous. 11-3-0 means nothing to me when you are playing the CC of NY schools and the skyline conference every game.

[PaulNewman]

I basically agree with you.  In my view there are probably 12-15 teams that could take turns being the next 5 after Messiah.  Trinity is one of the best of the bunch.  Loras is certainly battle tested and the experience/tradition of advancing far is invaluable.  I am intrigued by F&M because they really have not had a stumble with a very good schedule, but I can't completely erase from my mind how Messiah blitzed them last year in the Elite 8 (and they also lost supposedly their best player).  Calvin for me suddenly is a little overrated and Wheaton (Ill) is as good as anybody.  I think Brandeis and Kenyon are very similar insofar as being in the same boat....that is, very good teams but many have doubts, and lately Kenyon has provided a little more reason for doubt than the Judges.

[Off Pitch]

To me everyone says Nescac is down this year, and it is

That wasn't really so hard, was it?

[Mr.Right]

You are taking my quote out of context...typical right wing shenanigans.

[Off Pitch]

Spin away Mr. Right.  Or, you can always go back and edit that post to remove your admission.

[Off Pitch]

I guess it is frustrating because Messiah is so much better than the lot. Parity is king right now and anyone can be beaten in the NCAA's. I still like Trinty(TX), Loras, Kenyon, F&M, Tufts. Loras is still there because I like their team speed and toughness and willingness to battle for 90 minutes. They are very tough to play against. The others I threw in there but could all be beaten at any time. Oneonta, Brandeis, St.Lawrence are teams I have seen that are not quite up to snuff. SLU to many injuries and Brandeis will lose a couple more games with 3 remaining on the road. To me everyone says Nescac is down this year, and it is but the UAA is also down and those teams are beating each other up. How Rochester gets regionally ranked over and over bothers me. Coach Apple must present great arguments for his side before he steps out of the room when his team is being considered. Emory 1-3-0 in the league and gets regionally ranked despite a weak southern schedule. I saw Loras play Chicago and Chicago was getting man handled in that particular game. I liked Carneige Mellon and I thought they were the better team vs Brandeis. Have not seen Case Western but they have some impressive results. NYU I saw play Emory and was not impressed by either team. If only NYU went out and stuck their nuts out and played one of the many decent teams right near them, I would start giving them some credit. The way the coach schedules his out of conference schedule is ridiculous. 11-3-0 means nothing to me when you are playing the CC of NY schools and the skyline conference every game.

I aim to please, so here is your statement IN context.  Enjoy the games today.