NESCAC

[MENESCACFAN]

I attended the Bates v Williams game on Saturday.

Horrible start for Bates with Williams netting around 20 seconds in and the thought of Williams cruising to an easy win crossed my mind and I imagine many others.  Goal was right wing cross missing everybody and being finished by Conder at the back post, good finish.

Bates responded very well and equalized through freshman midfielder Merchant.  Cross from Pereira (who is now back playing well for those who mentioned his name earlier in season), half clearance and Merchant volleyed home.  Bates then hit the crossbar (goal line scramble so not sure which player) in the dying minutes of first half.

Best chances in second half were two that Grady just could not get on the end of, then Knoth was clean through on goal but denied with a great save in first minute of OT.

Enjoyable game.  Looking forward to Wednesday, with #1 seed, home field game and seed #7 and #8 all on the line.

[MENESCACFAN]

Also, huge props to oldonionbag on nailing three perfect score predictions.

[oldonionbag]

Good analysis, MENESCAC. I heard Knoth had a chance in the OT- very surprised he didn't put it away. Sounds like it was a great play by the keeper, who's received his fair share of criticism on this board. Good for him.

Thanks for the praise, too...although, I was quite off on the Conn and the Williams games. Here's hoping for a perfect prediction score this week!

Also, (and alas it might be too late for this year), but keeping a running record of our picks each week would be a fun little game to play, much like the NFL pregame shows do. Each week we could have our own standings update. Is Mr. Right always right? Or does the oldonionbag peel back some layers to get his predictive juices flowing?

[Mr.Right]

Lets not forget Tom Young in the OT or 2nd half I cannot remember had a golden chance but he hit it just wide. Williams is a different team at home than on the road this year. Home 6-1-1 and usually come out gangbusters. On the road 1-4-1 and usually come out as flat and uninterested as can be.

[Brother Flounder]

Usually, Williams really starts to gel towards the end of the season..right about this time.  If they do, will it be enough to make the NCAA's?  The coach really seems to get them to play well at the end of the year......Posters have mentioned the offense of Tufts this year, but they have only let in 4 goals all year. The center backs have been mentioned here but it should be noted that the midfield presses very well and comes up with many steals.  Given this, Bowdoin plays very well at home so it should be a good game on Wednesday.

[Mr.Right]

Some things to ponder for Wednesday's predictions:

Amherst v Trinity- Since 2007 when Serpone arrived at Amherst he has absolutely dominated Trinity. I believe 9-0-0 including playoff games. Amherst has been coming off a disappointing week should be fired up but they are basically stuck in the #2 spot because even if Tufts loses to Bowdoin they would win the tie breaker based on records vs top 4 teams. Trinity is predictably inconsistent, as ever since Pilger took over in 2003 they have been like this. If Trinity bogs down and protects its semi decent GK they could get a result. The great thing about Trinity is they never sit 10 deep even if they are the weaker team they will try to play with you. Trinity must win to get in tournament but they will come up short here.Amherst 2-0

Bates v Colby- Very important game for both teams. Colby could possibly sneak into #8 with a draw but Bates needs to win this. Colby would be eliminated if Trinity can get a draw though. This will be an interesting game to watch how each coach plays his cards. Do they sit back and counter or does Colby sit back the first half and then come at t hem the 2nd. Seabrook is ultra conservative with this bunch but might be forced to come out and try to attack from the get go. Bates will not sit deep and really have not done so this year when I have watched. 1-1

Hamilton v Williams- Hamilton already is eliminated. Williams have been consistently flat on the road. Williams desperately wants to win and get that #3 seed. Hamilton's keeper has killed them all year but Hamilton is more physical than Williams and could contain them that way. Tough one to call but I say 1-1

Wesleyan v Conn- Conn still needs to win to make sure they get in and also they could possibly jump to the #6 seed which would behove them to face Williams instead of Amherst. However, Conn has had success against Serpone in the past and a Conn v Amherst first round game would be an absolute blood bath. Wesleyan needs to get on track but I feel they are basically locked into the #5 seed as I do not see them beating Conn. Conn 1-0

Bowdoin v Tufts- If Tufts wins this game they could lose in the 1st round and still get into the NCAA's. Bowdoin has been hit with a severe injury bug and I am not sure the status of the injured players but 7 total shots against Colby is not good. Tufts also would like some revenge against Bowdoin as they knocked them out last year and ended their season. 1-0 Tufts

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Colby would not be eliminated by Trinity draw with Amherst; it would only mean they need a win against Bates to get in.  A Trinity loss and Colby tie also gets Colby in.  Colby could also jump to 7 with Conn loss, Trinity loss or tie, and Colby win.

[All NESCAC]

Some things to ponder for Wednesday's predictions:

Amherst v Trinity- Since 2007 when Serpone arrived at Amherst he has absolutely dominated Trinity. I believe 9-0-0 including playoff games. Amherst has been coming off a disappointing week should be fired up but they are basically stuck in the #2 spot because even if Tufts loses to Bowdoin they would win the tie breaker based on records vs top 4 teams. Trinity is predictably inconsistent, as ever since Pilger took over in 2003 they have been like this. If Trinity bogs down and protects its semi decent GK they could get a result. The great thing about Trinity is they never sit 10 deep even if they are the weaker team they will try to play with you. Trinity must win to get in tournament but they will come up short here.Amherst 2-0

Bates v Colby- Very important game for both teams. Colby could possibly sneak into #8 with a draw but Bates needs to win this. Colby would be eliminated if Trinity can get a draw though. This will be an interesting game to watch how each coach plays his cards. Do they sit back and counter or does Colby sit back the first half and then come at t hem the 2nd. Seabrook is ultra conservative with this bunch but might be forced to come out and try to attack from the get go. Bates will not sit deep and really have not done so this year when I have watched. 1-1

Hamilton v Williams- Hamilton already is eliminated. Williams have been consistently flat on the road. Williams desperately wants to win and get that #3 seed. Hamilton's keeper has killed them all year but Hamilton is more physical than Williams and could contain them that way. Tough one to call but I say 1-1

Wesleyan v Conn- Conn still needs to win to make sure they get in and also they could possibly jump to the #6 seed which would behove them to face Williams instead of Amherst. However, Conn has had success against Serpone in the past and a Conn v Amherst first round game would be an absolute blood bath. Wesleyan needs to get on track but I feel they are basically locked into the #5 seed as I do not see them beating Conn. Conn 1-0

Bowdoin v Tufts- If Tufts wins this game they could lose in the 1st round and still get into the NCAA's. Bowdoin has been hit with a severe injury bug and I am not sure the status of the injured players but 7 total shots against Colby is not good. Tufts also would like some revenge against Bowdoin as they knocked them out last year and ended their season. 1-0 Tufts

Spot on for Amherst vs Trinity---Amherst is the pick...I can't see Trinity beating Amherst.  Trinity looked exhausted playing Conn on Saturday and although the stats don't show it Conn out played them.  You are correct Trinity wants to attack, attack, attack and that is what gets them into trouble.

Bates vs Colby---if Bates wins they can move into 7th place with a Conn loss or tie.  Although I like the Colby team and their grit I believe Bates has 2 or 3 players who can make a difference....I think Bates wins this.

Wesleyan vs Conn---on paper this is a good game as they match up well and both want to play possession soccer....however Conn suffered another injury vs Trinity as Patch was taken from the field (early in the game) and looked concussed and would appear to be doubtful for Wednesday.  Losing Patch would be another big blow for Conn after already losing their best defender Punt.  Conn recovered vs Trinity but it will take a huge effort to get a result vs Wesleyan as this severely weakens Conn's middle (assuming Patch doesn't play on Weds).  Would like to think Conn could, but I am doubtful....I think a draw is the outcome.  Which coupled with a Bates win would leave Conn in the 8th spot
and a trip to Medford.

Tufts vs Bowdoin---Tufts wins going away...they want the league title without any League L--Tufts is the pick.

Williams vs Hamilton---Williams somehow finds a way to play well on the road and gets the W at Hamilton for Coach Russo.

[Mr.Right]

Colby would not be eliminated by Trinity draw with Amherst; it would only mean they need a win against Bates to get in.  A Trinity loss and Colby tie also gets Colby in.  Colby could also jump to 7 with Conn loss, Trinity loss or tie, and Colby win.

I made that clear in my post....Colby losses the head to head with Trinity, SO IF COLBY AND TRINITY DRAW THEY ARE OUT.

[FourMoreYears]

Here's how I see it ... please feel free to correct or add info:
From the bottom up:

Hamilton = eliminated

Bates = In with a win and Trinity loss/tie or Conn College loss.

Colby = In with a win and Trinity loss/tie or
In with a tie and a Trinity loss

Trinity = In with a win or
In with a tie and a Bates/Colby tie

Conn College = In with a win or
In with a loss/tie and a Trinity loss/tie or
In with a loss/tie and a Bates loss/tie

Bowdoin = already in will be #6 or #7 seed

Wesleyan = already in will be #4, #5 or #6 seed

Williams = already in will be #3, #4 or #5 seed

Middlebury = already in will be #3 or #4 seed

Amherst = already in will be #1 or #2 seed

Tufts = already in will be #1 or #2 seed

I'm not sure Amherst in officially stuck at #2 ... but it sure would take going quite deep into the tie-breaker rules to push them to #1. Don't think Tufts would own tie-breaker vs top-4 if Williams ends up #4 instead of Wesleyan.  But my head is spinning with all the permutations ...

[FourMoreYears]

Colby would not be eliminated by Trinity draw with Amherst; it would only mean they need a win against Bates to get in.  A Trinity loss and Colby tie also gets Colby in.  Colby could also jump to 7 with Conn loss, Trinity loss or tie, and Colby win.

I made that clear in my post....Colby losses the head to head with Trinity, SO IF COLBY AND TRINITY DRAW THEY ARE OUT.

Actually you didn't.  What you said was this: "Colby would be eliminated if Trinity can get a draw..."    That would imply that Colby is out if Trinity draws, which is not true.  Your follow up of: "Colby losses the head to head with Trinity, SO IF COLBY AND TRINITY DRAW THEY ARE OUT." is quite clear, as well as accurate.

[Mr.Right]

You are not reading my post correctly as I was saying either way Colby needs a result and cannot rely on Trinity losing to Amherst. However, I just remembered that Colby v Bates is being played at 8pm as they will already know the Amherst v Trinity result which in my opinion is not fair. Bates has every right to play their mid week games on turf as long as the opposing coach approves but Nescac should step in on this in the future and mandate all games on the final day in conference be played at relatively the same time give or take a half an hour.

[FourMoreYears]

You are not reading my post correctly as I was saying either way Colby needs a result and cannot rely on Trinity losing to Amherst. However, I just remembered that Colby v Bates is being played at 8pm as they will already know the Amherst v Trinity result which in my opinion is not fair. Bates has every right to play their mid week games on turf as long as the opposing coach approves but Nescac should step in on this in the future and mandate all games on the final day in conference be played at relatively the same time give or take a half an hour.

When one writes, it is the author's job to be clear.  Surely they taught you that at the fine academic  institution you attended. 
In my humble opinion, you were not.  At least one other agrees. ;-)

Enough on that ... no worries from my end.  Far be it for me to quibble with one with the name "Mr. Right". haha

But ... you are 100% Mr. Right on the Bates-Colby start time.  I was just composing a post about the 8pm start in Lewiston.  This is ridiculous and the NESCAC should step in and correct this.  There should never ever be a situation where games are played with playoff implications where both teams know the result needed.  Didn't the World Cup have this problem in the 70s and correct  it?  It's a joke.

[PaulNewman]

Then again, this isn't the World Cup  .  If the time has been the time for weeks, why should it be changed now?

[Mr.Right]

Not changed now but in the future the conference should make sure this does not happen again