NESCAC

[Mr.Right]

What data are you matching to tell us that was legitimate. You yourself had the rankings totally different when you predicted it and you had the same data

[Off Pitch]

Actually, my projection was very close except that I had Wesleyan in instead of Eastern Connecticut.  I used a spreadsheet updating the winning %, but I was not able to accurately update the SOS.  If you look at these factors on the new data sheet, the rankings are mostly reasonable.

[Mr.Right]

Since you are the expert at this could you go over the Great Lakes region and take a look at Geneva who I think is ranked #6 or #7. I posted in another section about this. Tell me if you think they deserve that spot and why. I posted it in the National forum

[Off Pitch]

So Babson goes 1-1-0 and loses to another ranked team and sits at #6. 1-5-0 against ranked teams with a good SOS but they haven't beat any of those tough opponents.

It looks like Babson is 2-4 against teams ranked in New England.  My guess is that they stuck at #6 because of a good winning % versus a very good SOS compared to the likes of Gordon and WPI.  Babson also has a better winning % against a better SOS than Middlebury, Wesleyan or Williams.  It would be extremely difficult to move any of those teams, except WPI based on head to head, ahead of Babson based on the data.

[Mr.Right]

Here was my post:

I am curious what you think on this


After looking at the Great Lakes regional rankings I wanted to see why everyone was going crazy over Geneva being  7th. After looking, that might be one of the most egregious mistake in the rankings I have ever see. A 8-4-2 record with a .522 SOS with ONE good win against Carnegie Mellon and a bunch of bad losses including a 6-0 thrashing by John Carroll. It seems the region is down but I would think some of those NCAC teams like DePauw or even Hiram who have a better SOS. This region will not get more than 2 Pool C's. Loser of the Kenyon / OWU NCAC final, I assume John Carroll will win their league but if they do not they would get the other. Maybe one of the two UAA teams also gets in but it is a stretch.

[Off Pitch]

A very quick spreadsheet of the Great Lakes region yields:

1. Kenyon
2. John Carrol
3. Ohio Wesleyan
4. CM
5. Case
6. Ohio N
7. DePauw
8. Capital
9. Geneva

[oldonionbag]

To the more knowledgeable NESCAC posters (Mr. Right, NCAC, off-pitch, etc), I was wondering if you could give an injury update on each team? Which important players will be missing from the NESCAC quarterfinals (or the entire tournament for that matter) from each team? I'd be interested to see how that will impact games...

[PaulNewman]

I'm not up to date on injuries, but was just wondering if Conn Coll is expecting any injured players to be available.  Also wondering when and if there will be a ruling on a suspension for the Tufts CB.  Is Tufts safe even if they lose to Conn Saturday?

Also, looking ahead to a possible semifinal of Williams at Amherst, will Amherst have a chance to bounce Williams out of the NCAAs? 

The Wesleyan @ Midd game is a really tough one to pick.  If it plays to form otherwise, though, I could see the winner beating Tufts (if Tufts gets by Conn).

[Brother Flounder]

I think Tufts would be safe either way given their record and SOS but there have been some real surprises in the rankings lately so who knows...

[Nutmeg]

I think Tufts would be safe either way given their record and SOS but there have been some real surprises in the rankings lately so who knows...

I also think they are safe.....

[oldonionbag]

Given the other NESCAC teams' struggles, I can't see Amherst or Tufts not getting an at-large if they fail to make the finals, or even get knocked out this weekend...

[All NESCAC]

I'm not up to date on injuries, but was just wondering if Conn Coll is expecting any injured players to be available.  Also wondering when and if there will be a ruling on a suspension for the Tufts CB.  Is Tufts safe even if they lose to Conn Saturday?

Also, looking ahead to a possible semifinal of Williams at Amherst, will Amherst have a chance to bounce Williams out of the NCAAs? 

The Wesleyan @ Midd game is a really tough one to pick.  If it plays to form otherwise, though, I could see the winner beating Tufts (if Tufts gets by Conn).

Conn is (pardon the pun) in "a world of hurt" regarding their injuries.  They lost two more starters at Wesleyan.  Doubtful any of the injured will be back for Tufts thus their depth is extremely depleted as they are now down 3 starters from original 11 (3 of their best players Punt, Patch, Mutala) and two other key reserves (one of which was now a starter).  Losing Patch in the middle is a severe blow and was very noticeable at Wesleyan.  Conn will have to have a heroic effort on Saturday at Tufts from its remaining players to have a chance, but like all season (same at Wesleyan on Weds) can they score a goal....they always have the opportunities, but the lack of finishing is beyond comprehension. But you never know how the soccer ball will bounce which is why they'll actually play the game on Saturday, but it will be a tall order for Conn.

[oldonionbag]

Thanks All NESCAC, appreciate the info. I didn't know they were missing 3 starters- thought it was only 2. That's a tall task for them tomorrow

[play-to-win]

Wow, wonder if he connected?  Anyway, Tufts brought back some starters and seemed to dominate possession in the first overtime.  Let's see what happens...

http://instagram.com/p/uwEjgzpPg9/     Nice job on the Vid Madzillagd.

Watching the video in slow motion (clicking on the video image rapidly) one can see that the Tufts player connected big time. My guess is that this player will not be be returning to any NESCAC action and may possibly not participate in any NCAA Tournament play as well. Given the deliberate and violent nature of this off-ball foul those that pass judgement on such matters for the NESCAC body have no choice but to respond in a manner that exceeds penalties given in the past. The game official must have been watching the ball when he missed this penalty kick/red card moment for Bowdoin. I hope the Bowdoin player is not seriously injured and will be able to play on Saturday.

[All NESCAC]

Wow, wonder if he connected?  Anyway, Tufts brought back some starters and seemed to dominate possession in the first overtime.  Let's see what happens...

http://instagram.com/p/uwEjgzpPg9/     Nice job on the Vid Madzillagd.

Watching the video in slow motion (clicking on the video image rapidly) one can see that the Tufts player connected big time. My guess is that this player will not be be returning to any NESCAC action and may possibly not participate in any NCAA Tournament play as well. Given the deliberate and violent nature of this off-ball foul those that pass judgement on such matters for the NESCAC body have no choice but to respond in a manner that exceeds penalties given in the past. The game official must have been watching the ball when he missed this penalty kick/red card moment for Bowdoin. I hope the Bowdoin player is not seriously injured and will be able to play on Saturday.

Ouch...that was awful....if last years incident at Williams with the head butt is any precedent then that Tufts player is going to be missing multiple games if not the rest of the season....very undisciplined and unnecessary....I hope the Bowdoin player is OK.