NESCAC

[Jump4Joy]

Mr. R,
I agree with much of your Amherst-Williams assessment. It was Amherst in the first half and Williams for much of the second half, from their goal five minutes into the half and then throughout the next 25 mins.

I disagree with your dismissal of the Amherst reserves. Overall, they forced Williams back and laterally more often than not.

As the Jeffs recover from injury and illness, they will only get better.

[Soccer Balls]

I caught some of the game. Was majumber offside on the goal on the pass slipped thru by Kayne. How much did Kaynes bicycle kick miss by?  Hard to tell on video. Tufts outshoots Brandeis and the Judges with 5 yellows but deserve the win...

From my angle he was off, but not by much. Hard to say. That was a decision that really could've gone either way. Kayne's bicycle was about a foot over the bar, but it was an excellent effort and no way the keeper could have saved it if on target.

Was in the Tufts football stands with great view of this.

100% onside.
Who knows of Majinde would have scored. Whistle blew quickly and Brandeis stopes playing. Majinde put it on the net. But everyone except him had stopped playing

[blooter442]

Turned off the Bates-Williams game with 5 left to go watch Babson-RPI, but apparently Bates stole it in 2OT?! What happened? I'm floored. Crazy weekend for both teams - Williams with brutal back-to-back 2OT losses at home and Bates got steamrolled at Wesleyan. If anyone was to get the winner for the Bobcats it would be Knoth, but Bates looked pretty awful the whole game and I wouldn't have imagined in my wildest dreams that they would tie, let alone win it. Did anyone watch the whole way through?

[PaulNewman]

Same here, blooter.  I checked score occasionally and saw Williams had a 22 to 3 lead in shots and so assumed it was over.  Bates got a long ball into box under 2 minutes that fell right to feet of Merchant and he put it in.  In OT Bates actually had the ball some.  Merchant managed to get a head on ball on Williams touchline and video froze.  I saw where Knoth was positioned and imagined me might score if Merchant could head the ball back into the six.....when video resumed Bates was celebrating.  Didn't actually see the goal.  A stunning defeat for Williams in a game they appeared to fully control until 2 minutes left.  Merchant actually almost earlier in OT on a good run and decent shot low to the corner but Alcorn may a good save.  Williams now may need to win NESCAC tournament to get a bid.  Bates stole this one and will take a split on this road trip all the way to the bank.  Happy ride home to Lewiston.

[WilltheMan]

I watched whole game.  Misplayed ball in box off a deflection with under two to go.  But in truth Bates was running at them in the last 15.  Overtime Bates dominated.  Almost scored 2 minutes prior to final, sick save by Williams keep.  I am only guessing but out of gas back to back OT and I'm sure Amherst took something out of them.  Give Bates credit, never quit.

[blooter442]

I am only guessing but out of gas back to back OT and I'm sure Amherst took something out of them.  Give Bates credit, never quit.

Agreed on both fronts. My guess is that Bates started taking out/resting some of their key players yesterday once the game at Wesleyan was lost in order to have some fresh(er) legs. When you hang in there and don't quit you always give yourself a chance. Unfortunately for Williams, they've experienced that type of opposition two weekends in a row (Colby last weekend, Bates this.)

[PaulNewman]

Williams has really put themselves behind the 8 ball with the losses to Colby and Bates, obviously both very winnable games.  Pretty tough to spot the top teams two losses to weaker teams.

They need to win the next six -- Conn, @RPI, @Endicott, @Wesleyan, @ Babson, Hamilton -- before ending with Tufts and @Midd.  That would put them at 9-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference heading into the last two games.  Perhaps they could lose or draw one of the six as long as they win all the conferences games which means that @Wesleyan is the must win and that presumes they can handle Conn.  If they could pull all that off they could perhaps get by with a split in those last two monster games.  They must be besides themselves, though, losing two games they mostly dominated.

[Corazon]

Williams has really put themselves behind the 8 ball with the losses to Colby and Bates, obviously both very winnable games.  Pretty tough to spot the top teams two losses to weaker teams.

They need to win the next six -- Conn, @RPI, @Endicott, @Wesleyan, @ Babson, Hamilton -- before ending with Tufts and @Midd.  That would put them at 9-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference heading into the last two games.  Perhaps they could lose or draw one of the six as long as they win all the conferences games which means that @Wesleyan is the must win and that presumes they can handle Conn.  If they could pull all that off they could perhaps get by with a split in those last two monster games.  They must be besides themselves, though, losing two games they mostly dominated.

That is a tall order. Really stunning that Williams loses to Colby and Bates on back to back weekends. I'm a big fan of underdogs, but never could have predicted this. I guess that is why they play the games.

[PaulNewman]

Yes, it's daunting, but just a couple of weeks ago most of us would have predicted winning at least 4 out of those 6 and probably 5.  And here's another thought, how would you like to be Amherst or Tufts playing Williams in the NESCAC quarterfinals.  My guess is that they get to the #6 or #5 spot and play Midd, Wes, or Bowdoin in the first tourney game away.  Bates now is a bit of a problem now and not just a nuisance.  They have 2 NESCAC roads wins and a draw with Bowdoin.  Of course they are what they are, although now they are going to be more confident and sky-high.  Now watch them lose to Trinity at home.  They might not win another game, or they could end up as the #7 or #8 seed.  Anything's possible, but I can't see them beating Amherst, Tufts or Midd.  So that leaves Trinity, Colby and Conn.  They still are going to need at least a couple more results.

[blooter442]

As we near the end of September - and I know we've mentioned them a bit - I want to take a closer look at Bates, who is IMHO the surprise of the NESCAC season thus far. Last year at this point they were 1-7-1; this year, 5-1-1. Of course, home victories over UNE and Thomas aren't exactly giant slaying results, but they tied and lost those respective games last year, so that's an improvement.

As far as NESCAC games go, winning on the road at Hamilton isn't exactly unheard of, either, but that was another game that they lost (at home) last year. I certainly think they rode their luck against Bowdoin at times, but they probably deserved a draw, and even looked threatening at times on the turf of Garcelon. I kind of expected them to get dominated by Wesleyan, although I thought it would be more like 3-0 and not five. However, I don't think any of us thought they would go to Williams and win, especially considering that they looked awful for 75 of the 90 minutes. To their credit, they hung in there and didn't quit, and - from what others have said - were the better side in OT.

I like Knoth as a player. His workrate is good, he's a good finisher, and he's unselfish. Will he as a forward ever be on the same level as, say, Conrad or Majumder? I don't think so - but I think he is most definitely in that next group. Merchant is also a solid player and Murphy has done well so far, so they have a decent nucleus that, on their day, can make things happen.

The question is, where will they go from here? I'd certainly rather face Tufts, Amherst, and Middlebury at home rather than away, so they have that going for them. How competitive they'll be, I don't know. I think if they were to play those games on their turf it might throw Tufts and Amherst off - which I don't believe they are, as generally afternoon kickoffs are at Russell St. Field - but that could just be me thinking that they looked faster and more threatening than they actually did against Bowdoin. As someone mentioned earlier, playing on turf can produce such an optical illusion.

It would be one thing if the Williams win was the biggest win in recent program history, but it's worth remembering that Bates has logged big away victories in the past - both at Middlebury, both when the Panthers were nationally ranked in '10 and '12, and both from free-kicks from J. Murphy - but then soon faded to irrelevance. The cynic in me says it would be classic Bates to follow up beating Williams away with dropping a clanger home against Maine Maritime or at Curry. Then again, they've already registered more victories than in both seasons they beat Middlebury, so this year could be different. Will be interesting to see where they go from here. Regardless, they've certainly gotten us talking.

[Mr.Right]

First a few notes:

Williams has NEVER under Russo lost to Bates at home in his 36 years and had not lost to Bates at all since 1996. Russo also never lost to Colby the past 15 years of playing and NEVER let Colby even SCORE a GOAL.

Also, Williams under Russo have never been under .500 this late in the season since 1982.

It goes without saying that I am MASSIVELY disappointed in Williams this season. They are really underperforming and losing concentration at the end of games.

It is not like Russo left Sullivan a team of stiffs. This team has plenty of talent and has Rashid back from injury and are still not getting it done.

[Mr.Right]

I already recapped the Amherst v Williams game which Williams coughed up the lead and the game with 12 minutes left. Now Williams v Bates recap is even more disheartening. Up until the 88th minute Williams was dominating this Bates side. Bates had maybe 2 legit chances all game and not a real sniff at goal. Williams was dominating possession and I thought they looked good doing so even if they could not finish their chances to get a 2 or 3 goal lead.

Bates was gassed the whole game as they do not have much depth and maybe can go 13 or 14 deep. A fluke play in the 89th minute off a cross and Nate Merchant who was WIDE open blasted the tying goal in. This is the 3rd game this year(Colby and Amherst the others) that Williams fell asleep on the weak side and the opponent took advantage. After Merchant's goal Bates WOKE UP and was taking it to Williams throughout the OT. The goal gave Bates a new life and they played fantastic and could have won it earlier in OT but Alcorn made a nice save. If Bates can play like that did in OT then they are a top 6 team in Nescac. However, I do not think they can play like that in every game.

[Mr.Right]

Williams has really put themselves behind the 8 ball with the losses to Colby and Bates, obviously both very winnable games.  Pretty tough to spot the top teams two losses to weaker teams.

They need to win the next six -- Conn, @RPI, @Endicott, @Wesleyan, @ Babson, Hamilton -- before ending with Tufts and @Midd.  That would put them at 9-4 overall and 5-3 in the conference heading into the last two games.  Perhaps they could lose or draw one of the six as long as they win all the conferences games which means that @Wesleyan is the must win and that presumes they can handle Conn.  If they could pull all that off they could perhaps get by with a split in those last two monster games.  They must be besides themselves, though, losing two games they mostly dominated.

There is no way Williams will get a Pool C this year. They are struggling with confidence and seem to be worse off than last year which I did not think was possible. I like the way Conn is playing now and if they do not fall into a trap game with Trinity on Tuesday have a chance of getting a result at Williams on Saturday. Williams has more talent than RPI, Babson, Conn, Hamilton and Endicott but I do not see them going 6-0-0 in those games and then at Midd and v Tufts. Williams is cooked for a Pool C right now unless they win out which is not going to happen.


Nescac NCAA teams IMO

Locks: Amherst, Tufts

Solid: Midd

Need to keep fighting but have a chance: Conn, Wesleyan

Under achieving to say the least and basically need to win out: Williams and Bowdoin

Over achieving with no chance of a Pool C: Bates

Goodnight Irene: Trinity, Hamilton, Colby

[Corazon]

Good stuff. You have me chuckling again. + karma, Mr. Right.

[Mr.Right]

Bubble teams Wesleyan and Conn and maybe Midd still have tough schedules left:

Wesleyan maybe the toughest:  v Tufts, v Midd, v Williams, at Amherst and at Conn. Wesleyan with 2 losses already really can afford only 2 more losses and maybe a draw or 2.

Conn: at Williams, v Bowdoin, v Wesleyan, v ECONN..at 5-2-0 if Conn doesn't slip up against "trap" games like Bates and Trinity and can beat ECONN and then go 1-1-1 against Wes, Williams and Bowdoin they will most definitely have a Pool C shot if they can return to the Nescac Semi's.

Midd:  at Tufts , at Wesleyan on a back to back and then Williams at home. Again no slip ups against "trap" games and go 1-1-1 and make Nescac Semi's or Final they should be good to go. One problem with Midd is their SOS will be hovering around .550 so they need more wins v Ranked teams then the others they will be fighting with. That is why a possible Nescac final appearance is needed.