NESCAC

[amh63]

Watched the Amherst-Bates game on the flat screen.  Amherst 3-0 with NPL pulling a hat trick.  It was a very windy day with sea gulls on the field..announcers stated the birds could not stay aloft much.  Even some snow furries late in the game as Amherst kept sending in new players.....so did Bates with a FY in the goal.  Still Amherst attacked and with under a minute to play.....Bates subs made some nice shots on goal.  Never know in this game what can happen.
Anyway, the announcers saw in the 2nd half there was little chance for Bates....though chatting about 4 goals in the last minute for Bates.....better than talking about T. Bull being the Whisperer to the Gulls.  Clever, but straying away from the action too much .
Amherst is now 13-0 and seems to be going forward with confidence in their team play.

[12SNoon]

Watched Bates <> Amherst today. Nico is on absolute fire right now.

http://cl.ly/image/461t0B373k0v

[Jump4Joy]

Congrats to Jeffs for locking up #1 seed for playoffs.

[D3soccerwatcher]

I just re-checked, and Tufts' stats have been reset to 29 shots. That is much more believable.

Makes sense. Still, 29 shots, many of them on goal, and with plyaers like those on Tufts' team you'd think that at least one goes in. Otherwise, you set yourself up for trouble, and the longer the game goes on the greater a chance there is for them to get one and pull the upset. Like I said, the positive for Tufts is at least they didn't lose, but it shouldn't have even been a game by that point.

In their last 7 games Tufts is 2-3-2.  During that 7 game stretch Tufts has allowed only 4 goals but they have only scored 3 goals.  Tufts has scored 12 goals for the season, with 1.2 average goals per game.  Still further their shot% is .080.  These offensive stats currently put them in the offensive neighborhood of NESCAC teams such as Hamilton, Colby and Trinity (currently the bottom three teams in the conference overall).  Tufts defense is stingy for sure, but they are going to have to find a way to score goals or they may end up on the outside looking in.

[FourMoreYears]

as of October 18th

1.   8-0-0   24 pts   Amherst*             home Wesleyan, at Trinity
2.   5-2-1   16 pts   Middlebury+         at Bates, home Williams
3.   4-2-2   14 pts   Tufts+                 at Williams, home Bowdoin
4.   4-3-1   13 pts   Conn College+      home Bowdoin, home Wesleyan
5.   3-3-1   10 pts   Williams               home Hamilton, home Tufts, at Middlebury
6.   3-3-1   10 pts   Wesleyan             at Trinity, at Amherst, at Conn College
7.   2-3-2   08 pts   Bowdoin               home Colby, at Conn College, at Tufts
8.   2-4-2   08 pts   Bates                   home Middlebury, at Colby

9.   2-5-1   07 pts   Trinity                  home Wesleyan, home Amherst
10. 2-6-0   06 pts   Hamilton              at Williams, home Colby
11. 1-5-1   04 pts   Colby                   at Bowdoin, at Hamilton, home Bates

* clinches #1 seed
+ clinched playoff berth

Tuesday
Colby at Bowdoin

Wednesday
Wesleyan at Trinity
Hamilton at Williams

[Mr.Right]

http://youtu.be/LCia4TkWoyU

NESCAC POY.

NPL will win POY...

[Mr.Right]

http://cl.ly/image/1L000s1W2E3W

COY.

Serpone should win COY but the question remains will enough of his peers vote for him? Stay tuned

[Mr.Right]

Mr.Right, does Williams have a pulse now?  Let's say they beat Hamilton and split with Tufts and Midd, and then get to NESCAC semis or final.  That would put them on 6 losses but with wins over Oneonta, RPI, and Babson in addition to NESCAC wins.  I guess RPI and Babson may not end up being ranked, though.

Excellent win for Williams as I predicted they would find their scoring boots vs Babson but its not enough. They must win the AQ.

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, does Williams have a pulse now?  Let's say they beat Hamilton and split with Tufts and Midd, and then get to NESCAC semis or final.  That would put them on 6 losses but with wins over Oneonta, RPI, and Babson in addition to NESCAC wins.  I guess RPI and Babson may not end up being ranked, though.

Excellent win for Williams as I predicted they would find their scoring boots vs Babson but its not enough. They must win the AQ.

I'm gonna say that one more blemish, preferably a draw, and getting to NESCAC final gets them in as 4th team, made possible by lack of strength in NEWMAC and elsewhere.

[Mr.Right]

Mr.Right, does Williams have a pulse now?  Let's say they beat Hamilton and split with Tufts and Midd, and then get to NESCAC semis or final.  That would put them on 6 losses but with wins over Oneonta, RPI, and Babson in addition to NESCAC wins.  I guess RPI and Babson may not end up being ranked, though.

Excellent win for Williams as I predicted they would find their scoring boots vs Babson but its not enough. They must win the AQ.

At 6-4-2 they do not have a chance...They were 7-4-1 at this point last year but the schedule to end the year was different. They will not go clean against Midd, Tufts and Hamilton.

I'm gonna say that one more blemish, preferably a draw, and getting to NESCAC final gets them in as 4th team, made possible by lack of strength in NEWMAC and elsewhere.

[Mr.Right]

Nescac NCAA chances:

Locks:

Amherst

Very Close to Lock:

Middlebury
Tufts

Bubble:

Conn College---They need to win out and get much needed wins v Ranked. However, I noticed coach Kenny Murphy is on Committee which might help a nudge.
Wesleyan---Going in wrong direction but the win at Haverford will help. They MUST win out and beat Amherst. Tall order.

Slim chance:

Bowdoin---Must win out and reach Final
Williams---They will have good record v Ranked and strong SOS----Wins v Oneonta, Wesleyan, RPI and still to play Tufts and Midd...Still they must Win out.

[Mr.Right]

Amherst unless a complete collapse will host and receive the 1st Round bye in the NCAA tournament. The 2nd round game usually is a tough one but Amherst should handle them. The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games will also be hosted at Amherst. This is where Serpone has notoriously COME UP short. 2012 and 2013 losing to Williams at Home. Losing in 2014 to Brandeis at Oneonta. 2011 getting smacked by Stevens at home in the Sweet 16. In 2010 losing to Bowdoin at Bowdoin in the Sweet 16 in PK's. 2009 getting whacked at York PA in RD32 which Williams went on to beat them in PK's to reach Final 4.

POINT:

Amherst dominates regular Season but has 1 Final 4 in 2008 to show for it. Serpone's weakest team was 2008 and they got smacked by Stevens in Final 4----4-1.

Williams since 2009 has been to 3 FINAL 4's beating Amherst twice TO GET THERE...


MAIN POINT:

It would be an understatement to say Serpone has UNDERPERFORMED in the NCAA's after dominating regular season in most year...


Will this be the year he gets through and finished the deal...?

[Mr.Right]

Congrats to NPL on a well deserved Nescac POW.....

[Mr.Right]

Fast Food Nescac Predictions:

Keene St v Tufts-----5-10 years ago Keene St was one of the top teams in New England. A 6pm night game at Keene St was absolutely no picnic. Tufts must win this game and I believe they will. Keene St has really dropped off the past few years and I have not seen them this year. This still could be a tricky mid-week fixture for Tufts but they snatch this game 2-0.

Framingham St v Conn-----I have not seen Framingham St this year but Conn College has no room for error in this one. I have a hunch Conn will outshoot Framingham 3:1 with SOG but my hunch say's they might have trouble finishing...I say Conn 1-0.

Midd v Plymouth St-----I have been unimpressed with Midd this year as they look like a poor man's Amherst. This is Midd's toughest non-conference game this year which is absolutely laughable. Their Out of conference schedule might come back and bite them in the ass come November, which is what I predicted back in August...Midd takes it 3-0.


Bowdoin v Colby------Big game for both teams. Colby MUST win to stay in the Nescac Play-off hunt. Bowdoin MUST win for better seeding and a long-shot pool C. Bowdoin will not take Colby lightly as Colby surprised everyone last year and beat Bowdoin 1-0 at home...NOT this year..Bowdoin takes it 2-0.

[PaulNewman]

RE: NESCAC bid picture...

I do NOT expect Conn to be in position to get a bid on selection day.

Amherst looks like the only absolute lock.

I expect Midd and Tufts to get bids, but I would not be shocked (surprised, yes) to see one of these play themselves out of a bid with another unexpected loss and/or a quarterfinal loss in NESCAC tourney.

Beyond those three, I think Williams and Wesleyan have a 30/70 chance that could improve to 70/30 IF one of them can hold to one more blemish or less and get to the NESCAC final.  I slightly favor Williams over Wes for this to happen, although Wes could have their luck turn and win an OT game in the tourney and/ get an advance on PKs.  If Midd or Tufts falter then the optimistic scenario for one of these could go up to 80/20, like say Williams or Wes takes out Midd or Tufts in the quarters.

The rest IMHO (including Conn) will have to win the AQ.

So 3 bids VERY likely and a possible 4.