NESCAC

[Brother Flounder]

I had one other thought on the defending champ theme.  Might sound good in the abstract but maybe not so much when you get really specific.  Let's say Tufts gets the last bid from the New England region and Bowdoin (if they beat Conn) and MIT (having maybe best season in program history) are out.  How do you explain that to Bowdoin?  By telling them they lost out because Tufts are defending champs, after just going 1-0-1 away with that team in the last two weeks?  By saying Tufts drew and lost on their home pitch but outshot Bowdoin by a large margin?  Now if the SoS and RvR on balance with all other relevant data still fairly puts Tufts over the top in this hypothetical then fine, but you have to keep in mind that teams get picked over other teams who want it just as bad and have worked just as hard.

What are Conn's chances of gaining an at-large spot if they beat Bowdoin, but lose in a tight game in NESCAC finals?

If Middlebury wins, then none, as Tufts would probably get it...

[PaulNewman]

I had one other thought on the defending champ theme.  Might sound good in the abstract but maybe not so much when you get really specific.  Let's say Tufts gets the last bid from the New England region and Bowdoin (if they beat Conn) and MIT (having maybe best season in program history) are out.  How do you explain that to Bowdoin?  By telling them they lost out because Tufts are defending champs, after just going 1-0-1 away with that team in the last two weeks?  By saying Tufts drew and lost on their home pitch but outshot Bowdoin by a large margin?  Now if the SoS and RvR on balance with all other relevant data still fairly puts Tufts over the top in this hypothetical then fine, but you have to keep in mind that teams get picked over other teams who want it just as bad and have worked just as hard.

What are Conn's chances of gaining an at-large spot if they beat Bowdoin, but lose in a tight game in NESCAC finals?

Fair to good, but Bowdoin's chances would be even better.

[PaulNewman]

I had one other thought on the defending champ theme.  Might sound good in the abstract but maybe not so much when you get really specific.  Let's say Tufts gets the last bid from the New England region and Bowdoin (if they beat Conn) and MIT (having maybe best season in program history) are out.  How do you explain that to Bowdoin?  By telling them they lost out because Tufts are defending champs, after just going 1-0-1 away with that team in the last two weeks?  By saying Tufts drew and lost on their home pitch but outshot Bowdoin by a large margin?  Now if the SoS and RvR on balance with all other relevant data still fairly puts Tufts over the top in this hypothetical then fine, but you have to keep in mind that teams get picked over other teams who want it just as bad and have worked just as hard.

I think your last sentence explains it.....

Explains what?  The post wasn't about whether Tufts will in fact get a bid.  They very well might.  The post was about whether the defending champ, whoever it might be, should be credited in some way towards a bid simply by virtue of being the defending champ.

[Brother Flounder]

Now if the SoS and RvR on balance with all other relevant data still fairly puts Tufts over the top in this hypothetical then fine..... Not commenting on the fact that they are defending champs... but ib SOS and RVR.....given the closeness of the teams.. that's all.

[blooter442]

Keep in mind that Brandeis winning the UAA frees up a Pool C spot for someone, likely a New England team. The Judges have been pretty much Pool C locks the past few years, but I don't think many - including myself - thought they would win the AQ, as they've always relied on an at-large bid. That said, the UAA will probably get at least two Pool C bids, likely WashU and Carnegie, so it may well cancel out any potential gain.

[Mr.Right]

Tufts and the Nescac Championship are separate entities now. Conn beating Bowdoin or Bowdoin beating Conn really means nothing now for Tufts. Tufts is now just another bubble team hoping the proper Pool C teams win their respective leagues. Like MIT. Newmac, CCC and Little East are all 1 bid leagues now especially with both ECONN and UMASS Boston losing this prior wknd. Their resume at 9-4-3 .620 SOS and RvR stack up well against other bubble teams in other regions.

[Mr.Right]

Appropriately brutal end to a brutally tough first year for Erin Sullivan -- he packed enough heartbreak into this year to hopefully last the next five, in particular, the losses to Amherst and Conn thanks to goals in the waning seconds of the game, plus THREE other OT losses.  Just could not catch a break late in games.  Maybe a product of a young roster and a new coach, who knows.  But the good news is that, if Rashid returns for a fifth year (which I am guessing he will), every significant contributor other than Danilak returns.  With a year in Sullivan's system, a much more experienced and talented roster overall, and a year of Sullivan's recruits (fingers crossed he has a strong first class coming in), plus with (hopefully) a few bad breaks out of the system, I am optimistic that Williams will return next year to its usual position as a NESCAC contender.

I have never in all my years seen a team lose so many games the way Williams did this season. Total loss of concentration and that falls on players but also on coaches to make sure you have the right personal on the field when protecting leads and they know their specific responsibilities. Williams looked clueless in this regard. It was just one thing after another. Point being I expected Williams to cough up that 3-2 lead late because I had seen them doing this all year. Once I saw the free kick you just knew and maybe the players thought this as well.

[Mr.Right]

What do bubble teams do this week if they have been eliminated from the NESCAC tournament?  I would imagine that locks, like Amherst, continue to practice, but would Tufts keep practicing?

Of course they continue to practice. Nescac teams do not get enough practice as it is. In fact, Murphy got in trouble with some players his first year at Conn for continuing practices for just underclassman until the NCAA pairings were announced. The problem was that Conn had no chance of making it. Perfectly legit and under the rules to do but some players and especially training staff were not thrilled with it.

[SoccerTroll]

Tufts was 10-2-4 at the same time last year having lost in the quarters as well. Then on a six game win streak of away games for the entire tourney to take it all. The NCAA needs to honor that run and their status as reigning champs if they are on the bubble this year. They had it in them last year as a mediocre team at the end of the season to go on a dream run and the NCAA would welcome another one of those from the defending champs. Watched the quarter final, coach failed to adjust in second half and get more offense on the field. He kept same scoreless team from first half who showed no offensive ability and changed nothing even after going one down and losing their striker to a red card. Even with 10 men they still kept things even and had some chances...He needs to recognize that his defensive minded set up needs tinkering. A second striker or attacking mid to keep forward to give their existing striker someone to pass to. Their striker always gets ball with back to goal and then has to do something, but no one up with him to do it with. With their defense, they could play 2 up and 8 back with 2 middies having attack responsibility, they are that good on D. Would be nice to see them get a chance at NCAA run.

[blooter442]

They had it in them last year as a mediocre team at the end of the season to go on a dream run and the NCAA would welcome another one of those from the defending champs.

Not sure they were a mediocre team. Underachieving, yes. Inconsistent, yes. But with the talent they had, players like Santos, Williams, Lee-Kramer, and Hoppenot, I would say they were one of the best teams in the nation on paper. However, it is about results, and in that respect I would say they could have been labeled "mediocre."

Their striker always gets ball with back to goal and then has to do something, but no one up with him to do it with.

I agree with this. Hoppenot last year got his ball with back to goal all the time, but he usually had outlets to pass to in Santos and Brown. This year, Majumder has often been isolated when he's gotten the ball, and has been forced to go unlock the defense by himself. I still maintain that Majumder is a superior striker to what Hoppenot was, but he needs some help.

[Brother Flounder]

Tufts was 10-2-4 at the same time last year having lost in the quarters as well. Then on a six game win streak of away games for the entire tourney to take it all. The NCAA needs to honor that run and their status as reigning champs if they are on the bubble this year. They had it in them last year as a mediocre team at the end of the season to go on a dream run and the NCAA would welcome another one of those from the defending champs. Watched the quarter final, coach failed to adjust in second half and get more offense on the field. He kept same scoreless team from first half who showed no offensive ability and changed nothing even after going one down and losing their striker to a red card. Even with 10 men they still kept things even and had some chances...He needs to recognize that his defensive minded set up needs tinkering. A second striker or attacking mid to keep forward to give their existing striker someone to pass to. Their striker always gets ball with back to goal and then has to do something, but no one up with him to do it with. With their defense, they could play 2 up and 8 back with 2 middies having attack responsibility, they are that good on D. Would be nice to see them get a chance at NCAA run.

I agree with some of this, and maybe Kayne or Brown could have been moved up to striker but Tufts did have a couple of chances and missed. Too bad about Majumder's 2 yellows.  Jumbos had the best record in the NESCAC going into the NESCAC tourney last year so they weren't really mediocre....Hoppenot and Majumder are different. Hoppenot also had a number of breakaways from Kayne last year that he could have scored on but missed.  I would say that Santos opened the field a bit for Tufts also enabling others to score. Kayne and Brown were the second and third top scorers for the Jumbos last year..... Like any team, it's like comparing apples to oranges from one year to the next..... Would be nice to see Tufts make it...

[PaulNewman]

I'll say this much.  If Tufts does get in they are capable of making another deep run.  They probably don't match last year's team, but I watched them live and they are very, very good.  They can beat anyone in the country.  Bowdoin, and we need to give Bowdoin some credit instead of just saying they "sit in," may be just the kind of team that gives them trouble, and in a little bit the same way Brandeis has given them trouble.  Bowdoin if I have this right is 1-0-2 with Tufts in their last three games.  All that said, the jeopardy that Tufts currently is in is on them.  You can't keep drawing in your final regular season game and lose in your conference quarters and expect great things to happen, although obviously last year that is exactly what happened.  I think all of us would have liked to see another Tufts-Amherst game, and maybe we still will.

[PaulNewman]

Blooter, thinking about Bowdoin and Brandeis in the same sentence made me remember that they played in the Rd of 32 last year at Brandeis.  Of course, the Judges won....wait for it....1-0.  Brandeis didn't score until the 75th minute on a pass from Ocel to Miskin for a header past Van Siclen.  Brandeis dominated the shot chart 18 to 4 with a 9 to 0 advantage in the 1st half.  Sounds like from the recap that Bowdoin had a couple of chances.

Side note.....one of the ARs in that game was Larry Caldwell, former NASL professional player, and father of Scottie Caldwell, starting holding mid for the New England Revolution and former player for Caleb Porter at Akron when Akron won a national title.  Brother Keith was an All-Ivy performer at Brown and sister Amy was a WNT U17 player who played at Boston College.

[blooter442]

Blooter, thinking about Bowdoin and Brandeis in the same sentence made me remember that they played in the Rd of 32 last year at Brandeis.  Of course, the Judges won....wait for it....1-0.  Brandeis didn't score until the 75th minute on a pass from Ocel to Miskin for a header past Van Siclen.  Brandeis dominated the shot chart 18 to 4 with a 9 to 0 advantage in the 1st half.  Sounds like from the recap that Bowdoin had a couple of chances.

Side note.....one of the ARs in that game was Larry Caldwell, former NASL professional player, and father of Scottie Caldwell, starting holding mid for the New England Revolution and former player for Caleb Porter at Akron when Akron won a national title.  Brother Keith was an All-Ivy performer at Brown and sister Amy was a WNT U17 player who played at Boston College.

Super cool side note! Thanks for that.

Bowdoin vs. Brandeis was a good, competitive game. Bowdoin definitely held its own and showed up to play, and even had the ball in the net four minutes in (waved offsides.) Brandeis was definitely the more skilled and faster team, but Bowdoin was the bigger side, was well-organized, and kept the Judges from creating any real chances of note until the goal. Great header from Miskin, who had been chasing his first collegiate goal all year, on a class ball from Ocel. It was one of those that I knew was going to be a goal once it went past Van Siclen even though it seemed to take forever to hit the back of the net. Bowdoin created one or two chances after the goal - I think White had his close-range header saved by Graffy - but it was never really "hearts-in-mouth" stuff and Brandeis was able to close out the win.

Again, it's worth reiterating that Bowdoin's organization kept Brandeis from creating any real chances other than the goal, so it was a very even game and the Polar Bears held their own. That said, I think Brandeis had Bowdoin in its own half most of the game, and its superior speed and skill eventually proved the difference.

[Nutmeg]

I'll say this much.  If Tufts does get in they are capable of making another deep run.  They probably don't match last year's team, but I watched them live and they are very, very good.  They can beat anyone in the country.  Bowdoin, and we need to give Bowdoin some credit instead of just saying they "sit in," may be just the kind of team that gives them trouble, and in a little bit the same way Brandeis has given them trouble.  Bowdoin if I have this right is 1-0-2 with Tufts in their last three games.  All that said, the jeopardy that Tufts currently is in is on them.  You can't keep drawing in your final regular season game and lose in your conference quarters and expect great things to happen, although obviously last year that is exactly what happened.  I think all of us would have liked to see another Tufts-Amherst game, and maybe we still will.

This is a good analysis, NCAC. Tufts was inconsistent this year, and yes, on a given day, they can beat anyone in the country, including Amherst. They lost to Amherst at the end of double overtime at Amherst. Their defense improved as the year went on as they didn't let up a goal for almost 4 weeks, and there were OT games in that stretch.  They still need to eek in and then the offense would have to get hot like last year....