NESCAC

[PaulNewman]

I think it's safe to conclude at this point that our friend BF is gonna vote that Tufts should get in regardless of any results or comparisons .

Even if they were 4-9-3!!!

Touche!

[Brother Flounder]

I think it's safe to conclude at this point that our friend BF is gonna vote that Tufts should get in regardless of any results or comparisons .

Even if they were 4-9-3!!!

Touche!

+K for not coming back ripping me!!!!  I might even go as far as Williams making it!!!

[Mr.Right]

Looking at Middlebury if they lose to a Wesleyan side on Saturday or even tie / lose they would have to be on the bubble. Bowdoin could pass them and I think Tufts actually would get chosen over them because Tufts 7 blemishes is better than Midd's 6 wins v garbage. Hard to ignore Tufts resume over Midd's in SOS and RvR and Tufts beat them head to head.

That would actually be the 1st time Nescac would get 2 teams in the NCAA"s while still losing in the quarters. Someone had asked that before.


Off of memory. Before 2004 when the D3 Tournament was MUCH smaller with only 3 Pool C's they would ONLY take 1 loss sides from top conferences that got knocked out.

2003- Williams
2002- Amherst
etc

I would have to look at the archives to jog my memory

[lastguyoffthebench]

If Middlebury were to lose, I'd think the committee would also lean Tufts for an at-large...

I think we are going to see a defensively organized senior laden squad win the NCAA Title this year...

[Brother Flounder]

If Middlebury were to lose, I'd think the committee would also lean Tufts for an at-large...

I think we are going to see a defensively organized senior laden squad win the NCAA Title this year...

I also agree with RIGHT's analysis.... Middlebury will, most likely, have to win the NESCAC.....

[Bucket]

If Middlebury were to lose, I'd think the committee would also lean Tufts for an at-large...

I think we are going to see a defensively organized senior laden squad win the NCAA Title this year...

I also agree with RIGHT's analysis.... Middlebury will, most likely, have to win the NESCAC.....

There's no way that Middlebury plummets that far in the regional ranking to not be selected if they advance to the finals and lose. A loss on Saturday and it gets a little more dicey, but I think the Panthers still get in even then, though it's far from a given.

[blooter442]

There's no way that Middlebury plummets that far in the regional ranking to not be selected if they advance to the finals and lose. A loss on Saturday and it gets a little more dicey, but I think the Panthers still get in even then, though it's far from a given.

Was definitely skeptical of Middlebury due to SOS earlier, but you can't argue with 13-2-1 at this point in the season. Even if they lose this weekend, they end up with four blemishes max and that's more than good enough this year IMHO.

Someone made a comment that SOS is the new RvR, and I think that is an interesting insight. Because there are tons of blemishes nationwide, and there aren't a ton of teams with records like 16-1 or 17-2, SOS is the way of sorting the "men from the boys" in terms of who is most battle-tested and thus most likely to have a good postseason. Obviously armchair D3 soccer philosophy, but still an interesting consideration (then again, where else but an armchair is D3 soccer philosophy done from? )

[nescac1]

Nice pick-up for Erin Sullivan in his first recruiting class -- Chris Fleischer was the Gatorade POY in D.C. as a junior. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/highschools/st-albans-boys-soccer-surges-past-georgetown-prep-in-iac-title-game/2015/11/05/09befa70-83cb-11e5-9afb-0c971f713d0c_story.html

Hopefully Sullivan will have a big recruiting year -- with a much more experienced team returning, plus a year in his system, together with some strong recruits, Williams could be back in a big way next fall. 

[Mr.Right]

I think Williams needs to really choose their captains wisely next year. They desperately need field leaders. I do not see one of those in the upcoming senior class so maybe a junior.

[blooter442]

That's a great way of putting it. With all of the games that it threw away this year at critical times, it's clear that Williams lacked someone to be able to calm everyone down and keep them focused. Teams with good on-field leaders are able to 1. keep their team from conceding a goal in the last few minute of a period and 2. if they do concede a goal in regulation, they get their team back and focused and avoid conceding another. Now I'm not saying that all goals conceded in the last minute of a game are a result of an incompetent defense or lack of concentration, sometimes it's just a great offensive play, but the number of times that it happened to Williams this year suggests that they lacked a leader to keep them focused in those crucial moments. Despite his team's six losses last year, I would have a hard time believing that Luke Pierce would have let such debacles happen this year - he's the kind of leader that they were crying out for, and it just goes to show how much they missed him.


They conceded goals at all the wrong times: Colby in the last minute of 2OT; Amherst at home in the last minute of 2OT (I know Amherst was applying pressure, but you have to be able to see it out at that point); Bates in the last 2 minutes of regulation; Middlebury in OT; Conn in the last six seconds. That's twice that Williams lost in the final minute of 2OT this year - brutal, but at the same time, as I like to say "if you can't win, then make sure you don't lose."

Had they managed to close out potential wins against Bates, Colby, and Conn, that's 10 wins and suddenly they're looking legit for Pool C with their SOS. In fact, they could have had as many as 12 wins - five of their losses came as a result of goals either conceded late in regulation or in overtime. Just goes to show you that the margins between success and failure are incredibly thin.

[Mr.Right]

Nescac Predictions:

Midd v Wesleyan---I do not remember the last time Midd lost a Home game at 11am. It has been a while. You can basically copy and paste what I said about Midd in the Midd v Trinity preview here. Got to spread them out as best you can and try to either attack them from the flanks or if you can have your central midfielders when they receive the ball hit some nice central balls over the top or diagonal balls out wide. Midd's wingbacks have speed but Wesleyan's superstar Frosh Martinez-Paiz has the speed to beat them and certainly Midd's central defenders in a foot race. He was the difference against Amherst and if Wesleyan is going to advance he most likely will need to be involved. Wheeler has been starting both Erickson and Gruner in midfield  for some size and Sousa has the skill to get players the ball. Cowie-Haskell is a nice option to have off the bench as he did not start against Amherst. I think the player really stepping up for them is Nick Jackson, he has been playing phenomenally.  Wesleyan played Midd very well at Home a couple weeks ago and were unfortunate to lose that game as they has a couple chances to go up 2-0 and were sitting on a 1-0 lead with about 20 minutes left. Wesleyan can also be very hard to break down especially on grass. Since 2010 Midd and Wesleyan have been extremely even. Midd has a slight 3-2-2 advantage with not one of those games being decided by more than 1 goal. Expect more of the same in this one.   I'll follow suit with most of the Nescac playoffs and go with the dog.Wesleyan 2-1.                 


Odds:
Wesleyan       +175
Midd               -135
Draw               +200


Conn v Bowdoin----Conn showed me some true grit, desire and guts to come back and beat Williams in a wild game in New London, CT last week. Part of that was due to Williams deficiency in closing out games but a lot of that was Conn's confidence that they were the better team and deserved to win. Clear and simple they wanted that game more. I have not seen many Conn sides that could do that. Usually they would of crumbled. I imagine they have been practicing on their own turf for a week to get ready for Midd's field. I think with their new possession style and passing on the turf might help them speed Bowdoin up more than they want to be sped up. Bowdoin can be very deliberate but they have some talent on the flanks and in midfield. I believe Conn's weakness is their backline. That backline looked shaky at best v Williams and will need to improve if they are to hold off Bowdoin. Bowdoin has a huge advantage in goal especially if this game goes to PK's. I thought Williams missed their PK's more than Conn's GK saved them. I'll take Bowdoin 1-0.


Odds:
Conn              +125
Bowdoin        -110
Draw              +200

[All NESCAC]

That's a great way of putting it. With all of the games that it threw away this year at critical times, it's clear that Williams lacked someone to be able to calm everyone down and keep them focused. Teams with good on-field leaders are able to 1. keep their team from conceding a goal in the last few minute of a period and 2. if they do concede a goal in regulation, they get their team back and focused and avoid conceding another. Now I'm not saying that all goals conceded in the last minute of a game are a result of an incompetent defense or lack of concentration, sometimes it's just a great offensive play, but the number of times that it happened to Williams this year suggests that they lacked a leader to keep them focused in those crucial moments. Despite his team's six losses last year, I would have a hard time believing that Luke Pierce would have let such debacles happen this year - he's the kind of leader that they were crying out for, and it just goes to show how much they missed him.


They conceded goals at all the wrong times: Colby in the last minute of 2OT; Amherst at home in the last minute of 2OT (I know Amherst was applying pressure, but you have to be able to see it out at that point); Bates in the last 2 minutes of regulation; Middlebury in OT; Conn in the last six seconds. That's twice that Williams lost in the final minute of 2OT this year - brutal, but at the same time, as I like to say "if you can't win, then make sure you don't lose."

Had they managed to close out potential wins against Bates, Colby, and Conn, that's 10 wins and suddenly they're looking legit for Pool C with their SOS. In fact, they could have had as many as 12 wins - five of their losses came as a result of goals either conceded late in regulation or in overtime. Just goes to show you that the margins between success and failure are incredibly thin.

I love the Ephmen, but "coulda, woulda, shoulda".  Bill Parcell's once said "you are what your record says you are!", and the Ephs were just OK, nothing special this year, which is exactly what their record reflects for 2015.  Losing so many close games is the sign of a "not so good squad", not a good one....a good one would have at least tied those games.  The loss to Conn although gut wrenching due to the time left would have be an upset as Conn thoroughly outplayed Williams the entire game.  I'm hopeful the Ephmen rebound next year.

[blooter442]

Bill Parcell's once said "you are what your record says you are!", and the Ephs were just OK, nothing special this year, which is exactly what their record reflects for 2015.  Losing so many close games is the sign of a "not so good squad", not a good one....a good one would have at least tied those games.

I think they were more talented than their record suggests, but you're absolutely right — results are results and you have nobody to blame if you don't close out those games.

Looking at this weekend's playoffs:

Middlebury 0-1 Wesleyan - I feel like I say that a team will be "up for" a game too often, but I really mean it with Wesleyan. They got absolutely robbed at home against Middlebury a month ago, and that was the start of a five-game slide. Wesleyan has been hard done by on multiple occasions this season, and make no mistake about it, they are a wounded animal right now, as Amherst found out — the win over Amherst has to be one of the best coaching performances in D3 history due to all of the surrounding circumstances, both tactically and motivation-wise, by Wheeler. And from what I read, it sounded like they were fully in that game against Amherst and fully deserved the result, so all the more impressive that it wasn't a total smash-and-grab fluke result. (Yes, if Wesleyan and Amherst played 10 times, Amherst would probably win 7 or 8, but Wesleyan deserved the result on the day.) Middlebury has been consistent and I've liked their fight, particularly in the latter part of the season, and they absolutely ripped Trinity to shreds last week. Sydor has recovered well from a bit of a mid-season slump, and, let's face it, they haven't lost since the defeat at Tufts in early October. That said, regardless of their record, I think Wesleyan is the superior side - even with the Panthers having Conrad and Glaser. And with the momentum and new-found belief that they'll no doubt possess, I think that will do it. You can never dismiss how much intangibles - mainly the intensity of the postseason and the desire of revenge - will power a team, and I think that could just be enough to do it for Wesleyan in this particular case.

Conn 0-1 Bowdoin - Maybe I'm going too much off historical sentiment, but I like Bowdoin in this one. Not because they beat Conn at their place a few weeks back, but, much like they were last year at this time, Bowdoin has become very hard to beat. We've all gone on about Bowdoin's defensive tendencies, and I saw that Odulate said this week that the team's "first focus as a team is always being defensively solid." And while that's very much a goal of all teams, the fact that it was clearly labeled as their "first focus" is pretty telling. That said, Bowdoin is not a "park the bus" team - they do get forward and go for it when they can. I think that's more a case of Wiercinski knowing how to best use the players that he has than trying to impose his philosophy - UChicago definitely knew how to attack, particularly the 2009 side that won the UAA. Conn, well, I've yet to see a giant-slaying result from them this year. That said, aside from Bowdoin they took care of business against all of the lesser teams in the league, and while they beat Tufts last year in the infamous NESCAC quarterfinal they are 0-3 against the top 3 in the league (to be fair, they had the opposite schedule of Bates, meaning they played all three away) If you had asked me last year who I would have picked in the semi involving Bowdoin, I would have said Middlebury, but the way that Bowdoin won three games on the road was impressive. With the belief they can do it again - and given how hard they are to break down - I say Bowdoin, although I could well be wrong.

[RelegationZone]

Neither a #4 nor a #8 seed has ever reached the NESCAC Championship match in the modern era (since 2008).  Nothing will change this time around.

Middlebury 1
Wesleyan 0

Bowdoin 3
Connecticut College 1

[Mr.Right]

Well in 2005 Wesleyan made a great run as the last seed(then #7) and won the whole tournament and got the AQ.