NESCAC

[Mr.Right]

  No reason to underestimate Bates when you've already had two 0-0 draws with Colby and Trinity BEFORE losing Glaser.

FWIW, Glaser did not play against Trinity.

FWIW, II: No way Midd underestimated Bates today. Both teams played hard in miserable conditions.

Apologies on Glaser.  So he got hurt in the Castleton game or right after in practice?

Overall I think the point still holds.  Don't think anyone is going to confuse Midd with Chicago, Rowan, Messiah, etc before or after the Glaser injury. 

Game with Williams is huge.  Williams needs it and Midd needs it to stay in Pool C contention.

I do not agree with this....No one is going to confuse RUN, Rowan, Messiah and Chicago's skill with Middlebury BUT Middlebury and Saward will get them very organized defensively come November. The top of Nescac is just as or more athletic than those teams and are all VERY organized defensively which is what matters in November even more so than skill. Nescac teams have proven that with multiple different teams in the Final 4 and Champions.

[amh63]

HC Serpone wins his 150th game...in his 10th season. 
Like most posters the outcome surprised me.....since I stopped watching with about 8 minutes to go...online.  I came to the game in the second half and there was steady rain.  Saw the two Cardinal goals and wished Amherst GK was Bull.  Read the Amherst write-up and saw that several young players for Amherst were involved in the "comeback".  Bodes well for the future.
Have watched a number of games live at Wes in the past.  The fans are in the background on-line. Aware that the students are on break and it is Homecoming.  Was surprised to see the posted attendance is over 300!

[PaulNewman]

  No reason to underestimate Bates when you've already had two 0-0 draws with Colby and Trinity BEFORE losing Glaser.

FWIW, Glaser did not play against Trinity.

FWIW, II: No way Midd underestimated Bates today. Both teams played hard in miserable conditions.

Apologies on Glaser.  So he got hurt in the Castleton game or right after in practice?

Overall I think the point still holds.  Don't think anyone is going to confuse Midd with Chicago, Rowan, Messiah, etc before or after the Glaser injury. 

Game with Williams is huge.  Williams needs it and Midd needs it to stay in Pool C contention.

I do not agree with this....No one is going to confuse RUN, Rowan, Messiah and Chicago's skill with Middlebury BUT Middlebury and Saward will get them very organized defensively come November. The top of Nescac is just as or more athletic than those teams and are all VERY organized defensively which is what matters in November even more so than skill. Nescac teams have proven that with multiple different teams in the Final 4 and Champions.

Mr.Right, if Midd gets to the Final Four I will be the first to come post what a fool I am.

Look, my in-laws LIVE in Middlebury.  Love the school.  Kid went to hockey camps there.  BUT, they went 0-0 with Colby, just lost to Bates, have no really impressive wins, and now have lost their All-NESCAC striker.  They are fighting for their lives now just to get in the tournament IMO.  SoS is decent but not high by any means.

[PaulNewman]

I will add that I like Amherst's chances to go deep better than Midd's and I like Tufts' chances better than either.   I think Tufts COULD play with Chicago, Rowan, RUN, etc

[NEPitch62]

Thank you for someone finally chiming in on Tuft's chances.  They have won every game they should have as of late - including a thrashing of Amherst 3-0 and are getting their best players back to tournament level fitness.  The Jumbos still have work to do but the NCAAs are not out of reach and based on current SOG results, in the toughest league in the country, have a good chance of moving on.

[Mr.Right]

Tufts does not have the skill as Rowan, RUN, Chicago either but they can shut teams down defensively. I do not think Midd is a Final 4 team anyhow and frankly I do not think we will see a Nescac Final 4 team this year but I do believe while Midd cannot score goals they can be and will be just like Tufts extremely difficult to break down and both Tufts and Midd have excellent GK'ing. Those are factors in November. We shall see...Amherst will not be a factor this year as I am not impressed

[PaulNewman]

Tufts does not have the skill as Rowan, RUN, Chicago either but they can shut teams down defensively. I do not think Midd is a Final 4 team anyhow and frankly I do not think we will see a Nescac Final 4 team this year but I do believe while Midd cannot score goals they can be and will be just like Tufts extremely difficult to break down and both Tufts and Midd have excellent GK'ing. Those are factors in November. We shall see...Amherst will not be a factor this year as I am not impressed

I thought the strength of Midd WAS their two forwards.  First, they have to make the tournament.  Could they advance on a couple of 0-0 PK or 1-0 games?  Sure.  I know they are a good team.  But they've projected by some to be a real national contender.

Listen, I think you are "right" 95%+ of the time.  You have astute insights.  You know your stuff.  In this case, you seem to be reacting to me on a personal level more than the data.

The difference between Midd and Amherst is that Amherst wins in games like today and Midd sometimes loses them.

And I could definitely see Tufts making a deep run.  They've beaten Midd, Amherst and Williams.  Shapiro is a good psychologist.  Even without BF/Nutmeg's kid they gotta a chance.

[Mr.Right]

MIdd hasn't scored goals all season. In saward's tenure they are known for being extremely organized defensively and that is how they won the NCAA title in 2007...I have no idea why you think this is "personal", it's not I am just reacting to you because you are basing your opinions on a couple scorelines v Bates and Colby that mean nothing. In fact, it is always better to lose to unranked teams than ranked ones. I do not believe Midd drops further than #6. Williams with another loss to a ranked team in Tufts is much worse tha Midd losing to Bates. Tufts should jump all the way to #3 or #4 with their superior RvR and they deserve it

[PaulNewman]

MIdd hasn't scored goals all season. In saward's tenure they are known for being extremely organized defensively and that is how they won the NCAA title in 2007...I have no idea why you think this is "personal", it's not I am just reacting to you because you are basing your opinions on a couple scorelines v Bates and Colby that mean nothing. In fact, it is always better to lose to unranked teams than ranked ones. I do not believe Midd drops further than #6. Williams with another loss to a ranked team in Tufts is much worse tha Midd losing to Bates. Tufts should jump all the way to #3 or #4 with their superior RvR and they deserve it

I've cited a lot more data than that, and I gave my opinion before those games.  Maybe we can agree that so far they have underperformed compared to preseason prognostications/expectations. 

[letsGOswans!]

Can you two stop bickering 

We can all agree that Tufts, Amherst, and Midd are the only three teams will a chance at progressing far in the NCAAs. Defense wins championships and both teams have strong defenses when needed. In these NCAA games anything can happen. It really comes down to two things: making less mistakes than your opponent and moments of magic (a la Kayne's giant killer goal).

[Nutmeg]

Can you two stop bickering 

We can all agree that Tufts, Amherst, and Midd are the only three teams will a chance at progressing far in the NCAAs. Defense wins championships and both teams have strong defenses when needed. In these NCAA games anything can happen. It really comes down to two things: making less mistakes than your opponent and moments of magic (a la Kayne's giant killer goal).

You must be Kayne's father too!

[HooksLeft]

hi everyone. first time poster here so quick 2 sentences of background for y'all: played at amherst a "few" years ago under serpone, still try to watch as many nescac games as i can but finding the time to watch teams other than when they're playing amherst can be tough, so my current knowledge regarding the rest of the league is limited by my "how-did-they-perform-against-amherst" lense.

i'd also like to give a quick shoutout to those of you who have been posting for the past "few" years. while i was a player there were two key motivators: haters on the field and haters off the field. Back when Mr. Right was LaPaz and St. Lawrence fans were at their most bitter (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixGWDqPGZrQ) nothing got me jacked up for gameday like a little d3board amherst-bashing.

with that in mind, i would like to say that the reason for my posting is to make sure that this debate continues in a passionate yet amicable way. i intend to poke a button or two for the sake of fun but please make sure to let me know if anyone ever feels i've taken something too far and i'll make sure to cut back. love you all and don't want anyone to stop posting or stop having fun on here because of me.

NOW ONTO THE SOCCER - what. a. game.... obviously talking about the amherst - wesleyan matchup this weekend. there's been a lot of posts about Amherst falling back to the pack, the NESCAC being wide open, etc. but here we sit with Amherst at the top of the table as November approaches. It has been YEARS since Amherst hasnt been in sole possession or at least locked tightly with one other team as NESCAC playoffs rolls around, so I think it's dangerous to count them out of a deep run. History would not be on your side if so.

That being said, I agree with many of you who have suggested that watching this Amherst team is different than watching the most dominant Amherst teams in the past. This team doesn't start foaming at the mouth on every single set piece like the team in 2012. They don't score some of the most skilled goals the NESCAC has ever seen like the team that won a national championship last year (bicycle kicks for days!). Lee Owen isn't going to gobble up every set piece like Thomas Bull (i'm honestly not sure why someone would think that in the first place). HOWEVER... none of this is relevant and I'll tell you why: Justin Serpone has put together objectively great seasons year after year after year because he adjusts his plan to his personnel and not vice versa. Every coach does this to some extent, but no one in my entire life (soccer or otherwise) has been better at identifying a source of greatness within his team. 2012 - players were great at imposing their will physically. 2015 - players were great at making the player next to them better (find Orozco's head, find Martin in space)... this year there seems to be criticism because observers are having a hard time identifying Amherst's niche but this Wesleyan game was the first time anyone would be able to watch and observe what will drive this Amherst team to a deep playoff run: Being able to find a way to get things done. Period.

This senior class has seen plenty of wins and plenty of great Amherst teams. They're plenty good at soccer (trust me) but what will you will all realize in the coming months is that if you give this group of seniors a task (ANY task in ANY walk of life) then you don't even need to check back in. You can just sit and wait knowing that it will get done better than you had originally hoped. Playing at Wesleyan (Amherst's most recent kryptonite) down 2 goals with almost no time on the clock and down one your most influential players, how did they respond? By throwing in the subs and preparing for how they'll shake things up for next game? Not on Serpone's team. Not under the class of 2017. Amherst men's soccer is best when their backs are up against the wall and thats been proven year after year after year. It takes grit, mental fortitude, a spirit that won't quit, and the composure to capitalize when it matters in order to win a game like they won yesterday. The same can be said about a deep playoff run. Heard it here first.

Now who wants to disagree first! Looking forward to getting this started. Thanks for reading.

[PaulNewman]

HooksLeft, welcome aboard.  Always surprised there aren't more ex-players posting but apparently most players are much better with moving on with their lives than most parents.  That in itself would make for an interesting in-depth essay/column.  Why so many of us could so much about D3 soccer at all is another take on that.

At any rate, I am neither an Amherst lover or hater.  I did defend the program when the criticism got a little too thick a couple of years ago, but I've also called out what at times seemed like unnecessary aggression.  But as you suggest, no one is ever going to accuse Amherst of not caring or mailing it in.  If one is going to put money on a horse then Amherst isn't a bad horse to choose.  If I was Amherst-affiliated I think my motto might be:  hate me all you want but disrespect me at your own risk.

I want to clarify my Midd comments as I think at this point the take-away is maybe a bit distorted.

I had Midd in the top 10 (nationally) of my own little Top 15 poll for at least the first 4-5 weeks of the season.  Even when I wasn't that impressed by their results on the field after a month or so I said they looked something like a round of 32 or Sweet 16 team.  They struggled more since then and now have lost a key player (although I hope he does get back in time for the NESCAC playoffs/NCAAs).  They have not dominated the way that some of us thought they might coming into the season.  I bet many would have predicted Conrad as POY.  Also please bear in mind that I absolutely think they got robbed last year.  RPI getting a bid over Midd in my mind was a joke, disgrace, insert your own word, etc.  So maybe this will be the year that Midd ends up getting the benefit of the doubt if they end up needing that.

Midd still has a good shot at a Pool C if they need it.  I believe they are still fully in control of their own destiny but I am suggesting their margin for error has closed significantly.  My own prediction is that a win over Williams and a quarterfinal NESCAC win would be enough.  If they lose to Williams and lose in the quarters I think in most years that would spell trouble.  If they lose to Williams and lost in the NESCAC semis I think normally that would spell trouble.

The caveat or silver lining is that no one else is stepping up to challenge for the last spot of two in New England for Pool Cs.  Bowdoin had a chance yesterday.  Conn had a chance.  Williams had a chance yesterday as well.  Gordon had a chance but Gordon, Endicott and Wentworth have all sort of canceled each other out.  None of the triumvirate of Wheaton/MIT/WPI is challenging.  One would think Springfield but their SoS is deadly.  Whoever doesn't get an AQ between UMass-Boston and RIC might be one we can count.  I doubt Clark is going to get a bid over Midd but if they win out and get to the NEWMAC final and lose to Babson who knows.  The one wild card I haven't mentioned is Brandeis. ...the Judges could be a problem, but this isn't like the last few years when Brandeis had a stellar record and a bid basically already locked up.    So, Midd MAY benefit from so few challengers really stepping up.  We'll see.  If they can win 2 or 3 games in a row it will be a moot point.

The teams that would seem almost 100% safe are Amherst, UMass-Boston, and Tufts.  Babson may be close and RIC is right there (and hoping Montclair is ranked at the end because they probably need that one).  A Williams win over Midd and a Williams quarter win and certainly a semi win would have the Ephs in a very good spot. 

As an aside, some might be surprised to learn that Midd hasn't been in the NCAA tournament since 2010.  Would be shocking if they went through the entire Conrad/Glaser era without a bid.  Here's hoping that they can pull together with some Amherst-style toughness and get the job done over the next week or so.

[Brother Flounder]

Good win for Tufts over the Ephs.  The Jumbos have beaten 4 tough teams but they still need a win against Bowdoin.  Bowdoin has been a thorn for them recently so they will have to come in strong.....
Amherst had a great comeback but, like Mr. Right says, goaltending remains subject.... You need hot goaltenders come playoff time...

[Mr.Right]

Final Regular Season Games For Nescac This Week....FWIW I have no idea why some of these games are played on Tuesday and the others on Wednesday. This started happening a few years ago and personally I feel it gives an unfair advantage to the the teams playing on Tuesday allowing for 1 extra day of rest for Saturday's quarterfinals. I am guessing both coaches have to agree on it but still all games should be played the same day. Anyhow.....

Tuesday Predictions:

Bowdoin v Tufts-------At 7-3-4 Bowdoin has faint Pool C hopes if they run the table and lose in the Nescac Finals. They should have beaten Conn on Saturday if not for a lucky goal by Conn with 3 minutes left and a questionable no call on a hand ball in the box. Instead of sitting at 8-3-3 they are 7-3-4 and that is a big difference not only for Pool C aspirations but more importantly Nescac Seeding. I believe the best they can do is finish #6 which would help them avoid Amherst and Tufts. Bowdoin IMO is one of the hottest teams in Nescac right now and are playing some of their best futbol to date. They are very athletic om their backline where Sam Ward has found a home. Riley Bubb is a great athlete and Matty McColl is solid with a "killer" left foot and some of the best service in the league especially on set pieces. Dias-Costa causes all kind of 1v1 problems for defenses and Levi Morant has been playing very well. I am not the biggest Cedric Charlier fan as a natural striker but he is one hell of an athlete and can finish when need be. Niang is a beast in midfield but tends to run out of gas after a while but he can shut down opposing midfielders well when asked to. He is replaced by Jake Stenquist who is a tough kid and tackles hard but fouls WAY to much giving opposing teams dangerous set pieces. Stenquist was a highly regarded recruit who IMO has not quite lived up to his billing YET. He might come into his own very soon and they will need him. As you can probably tell I am very high on Bowdoin right now even if they are playing one of the "hottest" teams in the country in Tufts. I do not think Tufts will break Bowdoin down unless there is a complete breakdown or Gk'ing error in this game. Tufts NEEDS this win and a Nescac quarterfinal win and they will be a definite Pool C team and possibly win Nescac if Amherst falters against Trinity(Which i do not see happening). I say Bowdoin scores off a set piece and takes the game in which should be a pleasure to watch. Bowdoin 1-0


Williams v Midd-------Both these teams are struggling right now. Both teams need a win to keep any Pool C hopes alive. I do not think either team gets a win in this game. I think Midd comes into this game with a total defensive mindset and preaches a shutout in pregame, meaning the ultimate goal will be to not let Williams score and to take Rashid out of his game. There will be some brutal tackles in this game. Interestingly, Sullivan benched his captain Bahr de-Stefano and senior Moutenot against Tufts and it might have backfired. Those two players are badly needed if they are playing on their "A" game as Moutenot co haan cause serious problems for defenses with his speed. The players I am a fan of are Sean Dory at holding midfield who is a TOUGH kid and Andreau at attacking midfield who has some serious skill with both feet. The winner of this game gets the #3 seed and host while the loser most likely gets the #4 seed and also host and play Hamilton or Conn at home which would not be a bad draw IMO. Midd just cannot score goals this season against good competition but will not concede in this game and I believe we will have a slugfest stalemate...0-0 DRAW