NESCAC

[Brother Flounder]

I have a little bit different take on Tufts...you  sometimes know how good a team is by how much you don't like 'em.

Remember Tufts was 0-2-1 to start last season (and because they opened up with Messiah or Haverford or Brandeis).  Remember that in '14 and '16 Tufts was "on the bubble" for a bid.  Some said in '14 they got the last Pool C.  Last year none of us thought they were more than a Sweet 16 team at best.

I think it's Shapiro, his willingness to adjust, and the super-confident vibe he instills in his team.  Tufts is more like Amherst now than the '14 team with Santos and company and also since the Kayne group left.  They are physical, big, and play with a bit of a bully mentality. Their own announcer was talking about Braun's antics in the 2nd half and OT.  They have a smugness and never think they are going to lose.  They could have a game next weekend with Messiah or Calvin or W&L or Chicago on the road and they would be absolutely confident they would win.  They won those huge games on the road against Montclair in '15 and Rowan last year. Doesn't mean they won't ever get nicked in a game, but they are not a team you want to play in the NCAA tournament.   The Calvin coach has a totally different stlye and kills you with sappy kindness and praise but he instills that same kind of confidence in his team. 

Also, it may be true that the NESCAC is down a little but that also may be true nationally.  Would Calvin be a clear fave versus Tufts today?  Maybe Chicago?  Anybody think Tufts couldn't play with Messiah or Rowan after watching those two teams last night?  We'll see what Chicago does but don't be surprised if we're still talking about Tufts and hearing about Tufts from their favorite fan in mid-November.

PN, certainly a respectable opinion, and I agree with much of it.

I don't disagree that they are a confident outfit, or that we may be discussing them in November, but I do think that while heart and grinding out results can get you far, talent can play a bigger part than you might think. I made a point about Tufts having potential defensive troubles without Greenwood (which hasn't happened thus far) but while 0 goals conceded in 4 games is certainly good, it's not as they've been tested against a Chicago/Messiah/etc. yet. While they are physical, I don't know that I'd agree they are "smug" — I think that implies arrogance — but I think they adhere to "respect all, fear none," at least from what Shapiro said.

Don't get me wrong, I think Tufts is a good side that has emerged faster than anyone would've imagined. Moreover they have made runs to NCAA titles after so-so regular seasons (although things did go off the rails to a point after a good start in 2015.) My point is simply that they are not unassailable and that they have their weaknesses that teams can exploit.

As an aside, I do really like both Souders and Shapiro — both classy coaches albeit with different demeanors (the former effusive with praise, the latter pragmatic and fair).

Tufts got a brand new Turf Field. The women play on the grass.  Don't know why the decision was made..... Shapiro is a class act and far from smug... each Tufts team is different.  You have to play the style of your personnel.  As it stands today, which can change soon, Tufts doesn't seem to have the scorer,  or creativity in the midfield, as the 2014 and 2015 teams.  Those teams would have been fun to watch on the turf.  Last year's team, 2016, was not as creative as those 2 prior teams, but they had great resolve and the defense and goalie were real glue. Right now, this year's team seems more physical. That can change if Rojas grows into a mature attacking player.  The teams that won the ncaas were not smug. They came out of nowhere. The 2014 won every NCAA game on the road, and except for the Messiah game, won all games pretty easily.  Take every year on its own and every game one by one...

[PaulNewman]

I may not use the same words others would use.  I wasn't saying Shapiro is smug, but there is something about his attitude that translates to his teams, and yes, perhaps it is "respect all but fear no one" with perhaps emphasis on the latter.  Here's the important point, and the important thing for folks like BF to hear.  I'm praising the heck out of the program, from an opponent's perspective, and IMHO Tufts currently has the top program in the country.  A dip in '15?  They took out heavyweight Montclair in what at the time was considered a pretty big upset (except to Tufts) and they were within an eyelash of an Elite 8 with another crack at a Final Four. And then when they did get knocked out some acted like it was a fluke and they were the better team, blah, blah, blah...and Amolo was worst striker they faced, etc, etc, etc.   When they win, it's never considered an upset on their end.  No tip of the cap to good fortune or a good break.  That's the hint of smugness for me.  Anyway, on paper, they already are way ahead of last year.  Coach your team's strengths?  Sure, but Shapiro recruited all these players.  Is it an accident they have Rojas, Braun, Najjar, Eichhorst and Kulscar....all really big kids?  Maybe over time there was an adjustment to account for Amherst, but there's been an adjustment nontheless.

[cac.aholic1]

My turn to give the predictions a shot - can't do any worse than last week.

Midd v. Amherst: Home field advantage for Amherst will be key here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Midd hold their own. I don't see Midd scoring - question is, can they shut down Amherst? Based on their giving up 4 goals in their first 3 games at Norwich, home to Conn, home to Colby-Sawyer, I'm going to say hell no. 2-0 Amherst.

Welseyan v. Bowdoin: Second game in a row that Bowdoin plays in the biggest Saturday NESCAC matchup. It didn't go so well for them last time, as they continued their streak of poor results at the beginning of the season and more generally against Amherst. Wesleyan is a bit of an unknown, but look good to start the season. ACH seems to have been busy, and Livingstone has put up some strong numbers. Both teams have enough going forward to be dangerous, and I haven't seen a lot of lock down D. Van Siclen was excellent for the Polar Bears despite the loss at Amherst, and could easily be the edge. But watch out for ACH and Komar going the other way. we'll know a lot more about both teams from this result. I'll guess 2-1 Bowdoin in OT.

Williams v. Colby: I expect a real physical one up in Waterville - lots of determination and size on both teams. Colby will look to rebound from a tough OT loss at Tufts, Williams coming off a good win but lost one of their better attacking players. I'm willing to bet they can replace him, and continue their strong start to the season. 1-0 Williams.

Hamilton v. trinity - another interesting one, and I expect better from them this time around. Giving up two goals to bates? really? I think they rebound to win here, getting at least one from a set piece. 2-1 Trinity

Conn v. Tufts: I want to try to watch to game to see what the hype is about with this new Conn keeper. He made an absurd 11 (ELEVEN) saves at Midd. Not only is that great goalkeeping, that's fantastic mental confidence and toughness from a freshman playing his first NESCAC game at one of the hardest places to play in the 'CAC. Watch out everyone, looks like this guy came to play. You would think this is a close one. And it seems like only a matter of time before Tufts drops points. Conn keeper holds them in it, while Conn hits on the break and scores on a 1 v. keeper. Final score: 1-1

Bates v. Newbury: who?

While I missed the scores, I got every result right except Amherst-Midd, which was pretty surprising. I thought Amherst looked significantly worse than previous years against Bowdoin, but still thought they would take care of business at home. But in any case, I'll definitely take that in terms of predictions. I'm sure I'll get all the ones for tomorrow wrong. Speaking of which:

Williams at Bowdoin: Battle of teams that got good but unconvincing Saturday results. This has been a close, even matchup over the past couple years. Despite a bad loss to Amherst, if Bowdoin gets a win here they're in a pretty great position. I think William's biggest question will be breaking down the Polar Bears, but I'd expect them to be solid in the back. No more than 2 goals in this game, and wouldn't be surprised to see 0. Biggest question for me is Williams keeper. Prediction: 0-0 draw.

Conn v. Colby: Conn the surprise team of the year so far, with 2 very good results. Colby with a couple tough 1-0 losses. This could definitely go either way, but since Conn was able to score twice on the size of Midd, I'll take them. 1-0 Conn.

Trinity v. Tufts: Tufts has the quality and toughness to get the result here. They might not be as dangerous as previous tough teams, but I still think they're the class of the league. 1-0 Tufts.

Hamilton v. Midd: Should be a close but messy game. Could go either way. 1-1 draw.

[cac.aholic1]

With respect to Tufts, they have certainly improved their toughness, athleticism and grit from 3-4 years ago. However, they are a far cry from Amherst's IMHO disrespectful, frequently dirty, and rather unsportsmanly behavior. Majumder made some dirty plays and there was that elbow from a couple years ago, but on the whole the team has been confident but not dirty or disrespectful. I agree with Newman that they take a "we're the better team and we're gonna win this game" attitude into most of their games, and it usually serves them very well.

[PaulNewman]

With respect to Tufts, they have certainly improved their toughness, athleticism and grit from 3-4 years ago. However, they are a far cry from Amherst's IMHO disrespectful, frequently dirty, and rather unsportsmanly behavior. Majumder made some dirty plays and there was that elbow from a couple years ago, but on the whole the team has been confident but not dirty or disrespectful. I agree with Newman that they take a "we're the better team and we're gonna win this game" attitude into most of their games, and it usually serves them very well.

LOL...they're not dirty, except when they're dirty.  Just kidding, really.  I get what you're saying, although that elbow you referenced was probably about the worst thing I've observed in several years.  I don't want my main point to be lost... Tufts is now a super-elite program.  I can admit the Patriots have been great too, but that doesn't mean I have to like them.

[blooter442]

I can admit the Patriots have been great too, but that doesn't mean I have to like them.

That is a fair point (and by that I mean being objective about things you don't necessarily like — I am ambivalent about the NFL in general, so no real opinion on the Pats). +k

[Mr.Right]

Sunday's predictions:

Trinity at Tufts-----I thought Tufts looked like the team to beat in Nescac today. Perfect opponent to play in Trinity tomorrow. Tufts smell a team that is lost right now. Does Trinity get pumped to play the NCAA Champion or do they wilt. Savonen might play well in front of a favorable crowd in his backyard but not enough. Tufts 3-0

Conn at Colby----This is the perfect game for Colby to get a result. They looked better than i thought they would today against Williams and Conn will be worn down after a long battle with Tufts today where they did a ton of chasing. Conn's GK did look good today but Colby sneaks a goal by him. Colby will be in the hunt for a Top 8 finish this year for sure. They are not pushovers by any means. Colby 1-0

Hamilton at Midd----Midd is a team right now that is really pumped after a big win at Amherst. Playing Hamilton will feel like all they have to do is show up. They will be dead wrong. They will be way over confident and Midd still have tons of question marks all over the field. Hamilton will be tired but they still will work very hard as they know they need to fight for every win. Hamilton 2-1

Williams at Bowdoin---These 2 are very even and you could really flip a coin. SOG totals tomorrow will be low. Bowdoin looked much better v Wesleyan in the 2nd half and will continue that against Williams. I do not know what to make of Levi Morant as sometimes he looks like he is laboring around the field and sometimes he is a danger man on the other end of crosses. I liked Bowdoin frosh #5 Drake Byrd out on the flank today. Can he a create a chance tomorrow for himself ? No clue but Bowdoin 2-0

[blooter442]

Predictions for tomorrow today :

Tufts 2-0 Trinity - After going to overtime in each of its first three matches at Bello this year, Tufts finally gets a win in regulation on its home turf. Savonen is great on his day, but I cannot see him inspiring his team to victory -- Tufts just has too much depth.

Conn. College 1-1 Colby This is the one I struggled with the most, as I think Conn. will be buoyed by yesterday's draw with Tufts. Still, Colby at home -- particularly on their new surface -- will be tough to break down.

Middlebury 2-1 Hamilton I will take the contrarian position to Mr.Right here, as I think even with riding the high of beating Amherst on the road, Midd. doesn't make the same mistake as last weekend and shows up for this one.

Bowdoin 1-0 Williams The Ephs have won on two of their last three visits to Brunswick, but I am predicting Wiercinski parks the bus, Van Siclen makes some saves, and Bowdoin gets a goal off a set piece at the other end. That said, this could easily go the other way -- I think if Williams scores, the Ephs will win.

[jumpshot]

Whoever thinks Tufts is the premier program in the country hasn't seen Messiah play in person, as I have this year, even in an "off year". Clearly plays at a different level every year, although in a weaker league.

[PaulNewman]

Whoever thinks Tufts is the premier program in the country hasn't seen Messiah play in person, as I have this year, even in an "off year". Clearly plays at a different level every year, although in a weaker league.

Whoever thinks Tufts isn't one of the current top 2 or 3 programs in the country doesn't know Tufts.  Two out of last three national titles.  Not outrageous to think could have been three in a row.  Now, the arrogance, is thinking it should have been three in a row, without acknowledging that just as easily could have been none.  At any rate, I can guarantee you that Messiah will not be happy if they see the Tufts name in the draw anywhere before the Final Four.  And if they played today they would look even with the slightest of edges to whichever team was at home (although Tufts would relish playing in Grantham). 

I'll use a different analogy.  I'm a huge UK bball fan going back 50 years to listening to Cawood Ledford in my Dad's car in NC.  When the NCAA brackets come out there is one team I don't want to see in UK's path....the dreaded arrogant, elite, crybaby Duke Blue Devils (and sometimes the dreaded, elite, crybaby UNC Tarheels).  In my eyes, Tufts is like the new Duke in D3 soccer.

Here's another thing I thought about (and no disrespect to Messiah at all as watching an NCAA game in person was one of the coolest experiences I've had as a parent/soccer fanatic).  In the last three years, Tufts has beaten the following:  Messiah, OWU, Wheaton (Ill), Montclair, Rowan, Kenyon, Calvin, Amherst, etc...and all on the road or neutral except for Kenyon and Amherst

[jumpshot]

PaulNewman:
Anyone can have a good game, a season, get hot in a tournament, or string together a few excellent years. To be the best program requires a much longer duration. No question Tufts is successful ---- not the best D3 program in my opinion having watch D3 across America and soccer around the world for decades.

[PaulNewman]

PaulNewman:
Anyone can have a good game, a season, get hot in a tournament, or string together a few excellent years. To be the best program requires a much longer duration. No question Tufts is successful ---- not the best D3 program in my opinion having watch D3 across America and soccer around the world for decades.

Best...one of the best...that's parsing.  For at least RIGHT NOW, Tufts cannot be ignored and is an obstacle.  I was not making any claims about historical significance (yet), but I assume you'd agree OWU, historically, is one of the top 2-3 programs, in D3 men's soccer history...and OWU and Tufts currently have the exact same number of NCAA titles.

Now, if you want to talk about best atmospheres for seeing a D3 game....

1) Messiah (by significant margin)
2) OWU (by significant margin)

Some others than come to mind....Christopher Newport, Wheaton (Ill), SLU, Lynchburg and/or Roanoke? Trinity (TX)? One of the NJACs?

Addendum...forgot Loras...the Rock Bowl probably #3 or #4...

[Mr.Right]

Williams and Bowdoin 0-0 at the half. A fairly predictable uneventful half..12 fouls and 1 SOG. One of these teams wins it 1-0 even though I did say Bowdoin 2-0 last night.

[blooter442]

Bowdoin's "shot...SCORE!!!" announcer is on duty today. For that reason -- despite my prediction, which still stands -- I am kind of hoping for a 0-0.

[Mr.Right]

Wow that was super annoying...that was really loud....1-0 Bowdoin on the frosh Bryd's follow up...Hmm someone thought Bryd would be a factor today in last night's predictions....