NESCAC

[NESCAC11]

Heading to Williamstown for Williams - Amherst this weekend. Should be a big game to determine what direction both teams go this season. Both hungry coming off losses. Should be interesting to see if Williams' back 4 which is terrific can hold up against the size and aggressiveness of Amherst's attack.

[Once_A_Metro_Always_A_Red]

Tufts is big, but not as big as Amherst in recent years. That said, I don't deny that Shapiro has recruited for size with somewhat of an arms race going on in the NESCAC.

I got curious about how Tufts has dealt with the arms (legs?) race in NESCAC based on your comments and those of Mr. Newman, and decided to run a crude analysis of the Jumbos rosters available on their website.  For Coach Shapiro's first few years, the percentage of players 6'0" and over held steady at about 35%. Over the past couple of years, however, the percentage of tall players has grown decidedly.  The percentage of players at or above 6'0" reached approximately 50% in 2015 and is now a complete reversal of the early years, with approximately 65% at 6'0" or over.  All that said, I don't think that the squad is full of "goons," and the team appears to be quite capable of playing the ball on the ground.

This might be shocking to hear, but some coaches fudge the numbers on the height/weight of their players. That said, it may be totally the case that he's made a concerted effort to add bigger players. But, it's also plausible that they just add 2 inches and 5-10 pounds to every player on the roster.

[Ommadawn]

Tufts is big, but not as big as Amherst in recent years. That said, I don't deny that Shapiro has recruited for size with somewhat of an arms race going on in the NESCAC.

I got curious about how Tufts has dealt with the arms (legs?) race in NESCAC based on your comments and those of Mr. Newman, and decided to run a crude analysis of the Jumbos rosters available on their website.  For Coach Shapiro's first few years, the percentage of players 6'0" and over held steady at about 35%. Over the past couple of years, however, the percentage of tall players has grown decidedly.  The percentage of players at or above 6'0" reached approximately 50% in 2015 and is now a complete reversal of the early years, with approximately 65% at 6'0" or over.  All that said, I don't think that the squad is full of "goons," and the team appears to be quite capable of playing the ball on the ground.

This might be shocking to hear, but some coaches fudge the numbers on the height/weight of their players. That said, it may be totally the case that he's made a concerted effort to add bigger players. But, it's also plausible that they just add 2 inches and 5-10 pounds to every player on the roster.

Agreed.  But presumably the "fudge-factor" has always been in play to one degree or another, so any change in listed team composition likely reflects some actual change in team composition. 

[PaulNewman]

Or, you could simply look at the players on the field and see how big they are. Kenyon had a fairly good-sized team and they were dwarfed by Tufts....Rojas, Braun, Najjar, Coleman, Kulscar, Eichorst, Majumder...and Sullivan isn't that tall but was huge in overall size. I assume Shapiro is aware of who he recruits.

[nescac1]

The Ephs, not the deepest team to begin with, seem to be really hurting right now -- not only Young out for the year, but Andreu and Dory, two key players, both missed games last weekend.  Amherst brings in waves of guys and the Ephs may need to go deeper into their bench to keep up.  It would certainly help if Andrew and Dory are available ...

[NESCAC11]

Dory back this weekend for Amherst and Bates games. Team needs to figure out the mid-field and getting Dory back will help. Losing Andrieu is a big loss.

[NESCAC11]

Bowdoin lost a tough one last night to St. Joseph's. Wesleyan beat Vassar 2-0. Tonight is Swarthmore at Conn College and Endicott at Trinity, both interesting matchups. I expect Conn College has too much firepower for Swartmore.

[BendIt007]

Watching Conn vs. Swarthmore game.  4-0 Camels with 5 minutes left.    Conn scored early on a direct kick and was 1-0 at half.  Then Conn continued to pressure in second half and the game broke open.  Playing on their Harkness grass field so game a bit slower than on turf.  Ex-Camel so I know that field very well (it was the only one we had)! 

[EasyGoer27]

Another full weekend:

Middlebury 1 Bowdoin 0 ---- Midd nick one on a set piece or cross in a game with very few chances.  Middlebury has just looked quicker to me.

Trinity 1 Colby 2 ---Colby gives one up but manages at home

Bates 2 Wes 1---  Bates has some runners up top --get 2 on the counter pull the upset vs. Wes who has 65% of the ball

Hamilton 2 Conn 3  Hamilton really needs the game missing CB Eckles (red card) hurts.  Conn wins barn burner stays undefeated.

The big one.....

Williams 1 Amherst 0  If Williams is ever going to beat  Amherst it's home this week.  Not a pretty game Amherst starts 1-2 in the conference.  First time since Napoleon I think.  The Goer will be in attendance for the anticipated chaos.

Should be great fall weekend enjoy the games all.


PS I reserve a pick on Williams/Bates, lets see what happens Sat first.  Poor Pine Manor on Sunday

[Mr.Right]

Amherst at Williams--Amherst is just not as solid as they have been in the past BUT they still have speed up top with size all over the field. Williams is 3-1-0 but have not beaten anyone of note and frankly they looked really offensively challenged this past weekend v Colby and Bowdoin. Williams is undersized at the back compared to Amherst just like Bowdoin was. Getting Dory back is huge as a holding midfielder but that will not be enough. All week practice in Williamstown should have been pumping long ball after long ball into the box for Williams starters to clear. Williams does not attack with his wingbacks like Russo used to so their counterattack has been non-existent which was always their strength. Sullivan seems to be way more conservative which is fine if they were dangerous going forward which they have not been. Williams GK has not been tested at all this season and neither has Amherst GK. Amherst will dictate play in this game and Williams will try to hold on. Sisco and Singleton are to small up top for them to be a serious threat to score against Amherst. I cannot picture how Williams can score in this game. Amherst 2-0

Midd at Bowdoin---Midd coming off a nice road win at an improved Keene St side and Bowdoin coming off a disappointing road loss at the most improved program in New England the past couple of years in St.Joseph's. That loss will hurt come November as St. Joe's most likely will be regionally ranked. That win is a huge boost for St.Joe's. These 2 teams IMO are very even with a slight edge to Bowdoin in talent, home field, and GK'ing. Midd has an edge in size and their midfield has been playing well so far this season. Honestly, both teams could use a huge win like this game but Bowdoin needs it more. Midd has already defeated Amherst. Bowdoin's offense looked anemic this past weekend in wins v Wesleyan and Williams but they are extremely organized and got the 1 goal they needed to win those big games. My gut tells me Midd will dictate play but Bowdoin will score against the run of play. 1-0 Bowdoin

Bates at Wesleyan----Wesleyan is 4-0-0 against non-conference opponents this year coming off a huge win v Vassar. Now they need some conference wins and this is a must win for them at home. Bates has not played a conference game in 2 weeks and I have yet to see them play. If they can get 3-4 points this weekend that would be a huge success as they go to Williams the next day. Wesleyan tries to play futbol a bit as they looked very good 1st half at Bowdoin last weekend. The problem was 2nd half they looked awful. They have solid players all over the field but their bench is thin and I am still unsure of their GK and small but fast backline. They need to play a little quicker to feet but as long as they do not get overconfident they can and will win this game. 2-1 Wesleyan

Trinity at Colby----Absolute MUST win for both teams. Trinity has really disappointed this year so far and are digging themselves a hole they cannot get out of. They must get 3 points in this game. Colby looked good this past weekend but they came away with 1 point out of 6. That will not cut it at home. These 2 teams are pretty even so you really could flip a coin but I say Colby keeps their season alive and Trinity's season is unofficially over before October. 2-1 Colby

Hamilton at Conn---Conn has had a nice and surprising start to the season. Their GK looks solid for the 1st time in years. They looked horrible at Tufts last Saturday as they created nothing offensively( notice a common theme in Nescac this year) but battled Tufts to a solid draw. Hamilton got a bit unlucky at Midd as I thought they tried to play some futbol at Midd but Midd got the only goal of the game. 1-1

Brandeis at Tufts---Friday night game for these two is exciting. The game should draw well but I got a feeling Brandeis fans will travel in bunches to this one. Home field for Tufts is nullified as Brandeis plays on the carpet and will have plenty of fan support. I have not seen Brandeis this year so it is hard for me to comment. Tufts at 4-0-1 has question marks but has started very well this year. Tufts has not played any challenging sides yet so their record is a bit misleading. They will be tested in this game unlike the 5 previous matches. This game should be the best game to watch all weekend as the ball will be on the ground for the most part and there should be some goals. Tufts will be more physical but Brandeis should be able to deal with that like they have in the past. 2-2

[cac.aholic1]

Weekend predictions coming up here. Didn't get mine done in time for tonights game, but I totally had it as 1-0 Tufts 

Midd @ Bowdoin: Both team s coming off 6 pt NESCAC weeks, but Midd got it done with a nice 2-0 win at Keene State while Bowdoin took a tough L 1-0 at St. Joes, keeping questions about their team alive despite plenty of talent. Midd has somewhat dominated this matchup in recent years - I don't think they've lost in the last 4 years (excluding the PK win for Bowdoin in 2014). But I think Bowdoin will fair much better at home than on the Midd carpet, and you've got to think they'll come out hungry and looking to bounce back. For the Panthers, it seems Goulart has been the man going forward with Sass putting up some points as well. I like Goulart's combination of pace, power, and skill, with a good finishing touch. Bowdoin has yet to really figure it out going forward, and seem to have a number of decent options (Ellsworth, Morant, Byrd, Niang on set pieces) rather than a key guy or two. Honestly, sometimes it just looks like nobody has any idea what the strategy is on offense. This should be another good test for them - can they deal with Midd's physicality and pressure to settle the pass down and pass and get things going forward, or do they put in another poor performance like Amherst? With both teams at 2-1 and top 4 ambitions, this should be a good one. I've got a good feeling about Bowdoin, and I think they take it 1-0 on an Ellsworth strike.

Trinity @ Colby: Trinity, led by Savonen, might have the edge talent wise, but in a league like this I'm always going to favor the hungrier team (look at where I predicted Hamilton to finish lol). Colby, despite tough results against Tufts and Williams, has actually looked pretty good, though they've only scored in 1 out of their 3 games so far. I think Aoyama is headed towards a solid season in terms of goals, and I think this team will grow into the year and start to really get results in a couple weeks as they gel more. That said, this game is one of their best chances to get 3 points. I think they get a goal on a set piece, feeling pretty confident on that. But Savonen is a lot to handle for the back line, and if they make a mistake, I think he'll take it. But Trinity only has 2 goals in 4 games against Williams, Hamilton, Tufts, and Endicott. I give Colby the edge at home, where they get it done 1-0.

Bates @ Wes: Wes looked good out of conference before falling to a good Bowdoin team away from home last Saturday. But on their own field with 80 degree weather predicted in Middletown, it'll be an uphill battle for the (Holy ****, 3-0) bobcats. But somehow the Bobcats have scored 8 goals in 3 games (yes, two of those games were against newbury and UNE, but they did net two on Hamilton). Wesleyan has looked great out of conference, scoring multiple times in 3/4 games, but only 2 shutouts out of 5 games played so far isn't a great sign. I think Bates has a real chance here if they pack it in and defend well, and hit on the counter. If they can score two at Hamilton, they can certainly score one at Wes, who are probably weaker at the back but maybe a bit better organized and coached all around. Again, I think Wes has a ton of talent going forward, but can they breach the Bates defense? Bates always seems to have solid keeper, and it's not that easy to score on them packed in. Not to mention I think the Wesleyan defense is weak, and watching the video of the goal they gave up to Bowdoin, the keeper looks very questionable - way out of position on both the cross and the shot. I think Bates snatches an early one on the counter but the Maine boys can't hang in the heat, and fall 2-1 to a Wesleyan comeback.

Hamilton @ Conn: Conn the surprise team of the season are coming off a big 4-0 W over Swat Mid week, but their last NESCAC game was a big warning sign as they gave up 2 goals to Colby and only barely salvaged a draw. Picking up a reportedly solid keeper was huge for them, and Lockwood and Manoogian seem to be able to supply plenty of goals. I need to catch one of their games at some point, cause honestly I'm not really sure what to expect. Hamilton, on the other hand, took a tough 1-0  loss at Midd last week, always a tough place to play. Honestly, this is probably is one of my easier calls. By the nothing-makes sense rule, since:
1. Conn won at Midd
2. Hamilton lost at Midd
Therefore, Hamilton will win at Conn. I call it 2-1 Hamilton in a very open game, lots of chances going both ways. Just what Hamilton needed to get their season back on track.

Amherst at Williams: Get ready for a slugfest. Amherst has looked surprisingly vulnerable so far this year, squeaking out a lucky win v. a flat Bowdoin before falling to Midd at home. This will be Amherst's 3rd game (both in the NESCAC and total) and their first away from home. On the other hand, Williams will be playing their 5th game, 4th in the NESCAC, but FIRST home game. They've played in a lot of close games and managed to get the results until a disappointing 1-0 loss to Bowdoin on a somewhat fluke-y goal. Questionable goalkeeping again with the Williams GK too far to his near post, but not as bad as the Wesleyan keep. It's tough to get a result against Amherst without a confident goalie that can command his box, and even better if he can play a bit of sweeper. Haven't had a chance to watch Wiliams much, so no idea if they've got that. But I think they've got a decently organized team, and I'll disagree a little that the backline is too small to deal with Amherst. The former Lord Jeffs don't have the same massive size advantage they used to. Other than 6'5 fitzgerald, they don't list any people that get PT over 6'2, and I don't think Fitz is nearly as good in the air as Orozco. I'd also guess he's closer to 6'4 than 6'5 after seeing him in person, but it's hard to tell these things. I think Muellers at 6'3 (assuming he's actually 6'3) is more than capable of dealing with him. However, I do have to agree with Mr. Right that I have no idea how Williams would score here, even though I think Amherst are decently vulnerable at the back and Owen is only average, and prone to mistakes, in goal. I think if Williams play well and find a way to threaten in behind or wide, they could actually pass around Amherst pretty well. But Amherst always seems to get these types of games, and I'm not sold on Williams though I'm rooting for them here. 1-0 Amherst.

[Biggerthantexas]

Dinosaurs are not extinct. Justin Serpone is living proof. Over the past two years his sides have actually tried to play football but the way he has set up his side this year is a reversion to the bad old days of the Bubba van Wie long throw. They appear to have recruited Bryce Johnson purely for his ability to complete the ridiculous flip throw. These create a completely static approach to the game. Last week against Middlebury he completed over 20 throws. Opposition teams just stack the box and wait for the ball to approach from its impossible trajectory and then clear it.

The flip throw is the football equivalent of the broomstick putter in golf and is impossible to carry out in most major football stadiums in the world. There is a reason that teams don't rely on such an outmoded strategy it's just bad football. It sucks the dynamism out of a team and any degree of creativity. Last year one of the most creative Amherst players was Dane Lind. He created goals and scored them too. Last week he would have been lucky to have 20 minutes of game time. The other reasonable period Amherst had was when senior Kieran Bellew was on the field he actually passed the ball on the ground and ran at players and, like Lind has in the past, created opportunities.

The other dinosaurian feature of the Amherst game plan this year is the hit and hope long ball that completely bypasses the midfield. It's reminiscent of the ugly days of Vinnie Jones and Wimbledon in the EPL. Any free kicks have become set piece long balls and the corners are devoid of any variety.

You can't win football games when you set up like this. If Amherst continues to approach games in this one dimensional fashion there is no way they will fashion the type of record they have over the past three seasons.

[SoccerMom_5]

Weekend predictions coming up here. Didn't get mine done in time for tonights game, but I totally had it as 1-0 Tufts 

Midd @ Bowdoin: Both team s coming off 6 pt NESCAC weeks, but Midd got it done with a nice 2-0 win at Keene State while Bowdoin took a tough L 1-0 at St. Joes, keeping questions about their team alive despite plenty of talent. Midd has somewhat dominated this matchup in recent years - I don't think they've lost in the last 4 years (excluding the PK win for Bowdoin in 2014). But I think Bowdoin will fair much better at home than on the Midd carpet, and you've got to think they'll come out hungry and looking to bounce back. For the Panthers, it seems Goulart has been the man going forward with Sass putting up some points as well. I like Goulart's combination of pace, power, and skill, with a good finishing touch. Bowdoin has yet to really figure it out going forward, and seem to have a number of decent options (Ellsworth, Morant, Byrd, Niang on set pieces) rather than a key guy or two. Honestly, sometimes it just looks like nobody has any idea what the strategy is on offense. This should be another good test for them - can they deal with Midd's physicality and pressure to settle the pass down and pass and get things going forward, or do they put in another poor performance like Amherst? With both teams at 2-1 and top 4 ambitions, this should be a good one. I've got a good feeling about Bowdoin, and I think they take it 1-0 on an Ellsworth strike.

I'm watching this game.  Ellsworth just scored on a direct kick.  SO.... you could be right.    OOPs.  As I type, Midd equalizes on a corner-like play from a throw-in. 1-1 less than 20min into the first half. 

If the game you all are watching today is boring, you may want to switch; this one has NOT been. 
Pretty free flowing game and both teams really moving at pace.

[SoccerMom_5]

Weekend predictions coming up here. Didn't get mine done in time for tonights game, but I totally had it as 1-0 Tufts 

Midd @ Bowdoin: Both team s coming off 6 pt NESCAC weeks, but Midd got it done with a nice 2-0 win at Keene State while Bowdoin took a tough L 1-0 at St. Joes, keeping questions about their team alive despite plenty of talent. Midd has somewhat dominated this matchup in recent years - I don't think they've lost in the last 4 years (excluding the PK win for Bowdoin in 2014). But I think Bowdoin will fair much better at home than on the Midd carpet, and you've got to think they'll come out hungry and looking to bounce back. For the Panthers, it seems Goulart has been the man going forward with Sass putting up some points as well. I like Goulart's combination of pace, power, and skill, with a good finishing touch. Bowdoin has yet to really figure it out going forward, and seem to have a number of decent options (Ellsworth, Morant, Byrd, Niang on set pieces) rather than a key guy or two. Honestly, sometimes it just looks like nobody has any idea what the strategy is on offense. This should be another good test for them - can they deal with Midd's physicality and pressure to settle the pass down and pass and get things going forward, or do they put in another poor performance like Amherst? With both teams at 2-1 and top 4 ambitions, this should be a good one. I've got a good feeling about Bowdoin, and I think they take it 1-0 on an Ellsworth strike.

I'm watching this game.  Ellsworth just scored on a direct kick.  SO.... you could be right.    OOPs.  As I type, Midd equalizes on a corner-like play from a throw-in. 1-1 less than 20min into the first half. 

If the game you all are watching today is boring, you may want to switch; this one has NOT been. 
Pretty free flowing game and both teams really moving at pace.

2-1 Bowdoin on a header by Niang from a great ball from McCall.  6min left in first half.  And -- this has been a pretty good game.  If this is how both teams continue to play, I would think that the finals will come down to them, based on the games I have seen around the league so far.   Of course... will they continue to play like this is a pretty big question, eh?

[Mr.Right]

How did Bowdoin get the 3rd goal?