NESCAC

[SoccerMom_5]

Why not try this Frosh Byrd who is one of their more skilled and fast players plus a dangerous 1v1 player as your attacking midfielder?

Hard to say for sure, but... I wonder what happens to him when you put him in a crowded lane.  His pace gives him an advantage in space.   And... he sends dangerous crosses.

The first year, MacPherron is a great CAM. And, he is very creative. His movement off of the ball is great, he does a great job drawing out a defenders to create space for others... He generates a lot. 

I still like Bowdoin.  I keep waiting for them to get it together.  They have all the talent they need, but they never all seem to be hitting on all cylinders.  And they make pretty disastrous decisions at inopportune times.  But...   I still like them.   I think they are the worst best team in the league. Lol

I am pretty fond of Colby at this point also -- that team play through the middle.  👌 And they are so young.  They should be really fun next year

And I think Bates is incredibly mentally tough, which is admirable.

Go, the Maine teams!! 🤞

[SoccerMom_5]

Good observations SoccerMom.  I'm harkening back to Mr. Right's opinion that Tufts is the class of the league so far.  Having allowed only one goal, it's hard to argue with that.  I think Bowdoin and Amherst are in the next tier, and Colby is one of the teams who are right behind them.  However, as recent history has shown, anything can and probably will happen during the NESCAC tournament.

I hear what you are saying, and - obviously not allowing any goals is a whole different thing--  but I really dont get the way people keep talking about the teams.

Tufts 19points  6-1-1
Bowdoin 18points 6-2
Tufts has scored 12 goals in league play,  and Bowdoin has scored 11.
To me, those teams appear comparable. ( Now... there is clearly a big difference in goals allowed.  That is undeniable)

But... lets look at:
Amherst:  14points 4-2-2
And throw in Conn 15 points 4-1-3

And then maybe Williams (13pnts 3-1-4)

Then maybe Midd & Colby (💗) with their "500" seasons.

Seems like Bowdoin and Tufts are comparable, and that Conn, Amherst, and maybe Williams are the next tier.

And the others after.

People keep talking *Bowdoin* and Williams with pool C hopes but that Bowdoin's  chances are poor.  But... why?  I really don't get that.
I don't actually care that much, at this point, I guess, but I guess I am not sure how it is done.

Granted, I have not gotten to watch as much this week.  Also, I havent seen them play live, so could be missing something, but... I don't understand at all how people are reading these things, if it comes down to numbers... which it seems like it has to. 

Trying to figure out how these judgements get made.  Help me out?

[truenorth]

I don't pretend to know all the arcane details that determine the regional rankings.  I've pasted in below the most recent regional rankings as posted by "Off Pitch" on the New England soccer discussion thread.  Clearly strength of schedule (SOS) is a big determining factor.  Note that Bowdoin beat both Middlebury and Williams, yet is ranked below them.  Also note that 7 NESCAC teams appear in the top 12, which speaks to the overall strength of the NESCAC.

These rankings certainly don't necessarily match up with the eye test...i.e. what you are actually seeing as you watch the games in person or online.  Again, in my personal view, Tufts stands out because of their overall record and minimal goals allowed, and I still think Bowdoin and Amherst, and possibly Conn College, are in the next tier.  After that, I really wouldn't put Colby or even Hamilton much behind Williams and Middlebury based on what I've seen.  But the NESCAC tournament is generally when the unpredictable can and does happen.

Actual rankings with winning % and SOS

1.     Tufts             0.875        .605
2.     Amherst        0.727        .679
3.     Conn             0.808        .605
4.     Brandeis        0.769        .618
5.     Williams        0.750        .601
6.     Springfield     1.000        .556
7.     Middlebury     0.692        .614
8.     Mass-Boston  0.692        .578
9.     Bowdoin        0.750        .554
10.   J&Wales         0.893        .530
11.   Gordon          0.679        .555
12.   Colby            0.636         .584

Not ranked (winning % over .600 and SOS over .500)
        St Josephs     0.964        .474
        Coast Guard   0.654        .549
        Endicott         0.679        .546
        WPI              0.692         .535
        Clark             0.654         .507
        Colby-Sawyer 0.615         .534
        Keene St        0.615         .556
        WConnSt       0.625          .515

[Bobcat1]

Good observations SoccerMom.  I'm harkening back to Mr. Right's opinion that Tufts is the class of the league so far.  Having allowed only one goal, it's hard to argue with that.  I think Bowdoin and Amherst are in the next tier, and Colby is one of the teams who are right behind them.  However, as recent history has shown, anything can and probably will happen during the NESCAC tournament.

People keep talking Bates and Williams with pool C hopes and that Bowdoins chances are poor.  But... why?  I really don't get that.
I don't actually care that much, at this point, I guess, but I guess I am not sure how it is done.

Granted, I have not gotten to watch as much this week.  Also, I havent seen them play live, so could be missing something, but... I don't understand at all how people are reading these things, if it comes down to numbers... which it seems like it has to. 

Trying to figure out how these judgements get made.  Help me out?

I don't think anyone on these Boards has been talking about Bates and Pool C hopes.  That must be a typo.  Did you mean Colby or perhaps Middlebury? The only way Bates has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament is through the AQ and to do that they would need to beat Midd on Saturday, Colby next Wednesday and get help from Colby beating or playing to a draw at Hamilton.  And if all that were to occur, Bates would then need to win the NESCAC tournament.  I have a pretty good idea what percentage chance Mr. Right would put on all that happening...

Regarding the Bowdoin/Tufts comparison, the NESCAC standings reflect the in-conference comparison - not much difference between the two teams (other than goals against).  However, the NCAA Committee looks all at the games played and overall SOS is one of the primary criteria in their ranking process.  SOS and a better overall winning percentage account for the gap between the two teams in the regional rankings.  A few of the regulars on these Boards have noted many times that Bowdoin needs to leave Maine and beef up its non-conference schedule if it wants to improve its Pool C chances year-in and year-out. The same would apply to Colby and Bates. They all play a predominately "Maine" based out of conference schedules.

Having said all that, if Bowdoin beats both Conn and Tufts on the road to finish the regular season, I think they would be a lock for a Pool C berth with at least 4 ranked wins.

[Ommadawn]

.If I were Tufts i would start playing some Frosh if they go up 3-0 because this game as the look of getting very chbippy in the 2nd Half

It appears that Coach Shapiro was listening to your sage advice, as he put 5 freshmen on the field to finish the game (by my unofficial count). Last week, a Liberty League coach made a GK switch consistent with one of your recommendations. Perhaps you could offer a halftime hotline for coaches in distress 

[Mr.Right]

.If I were Tufts i would start playing some Frosh if they go up 3-0 because this game as the look of getting very chbippy in the 2nd Half

It appears that Coach Shapiro was listening to your sage advice, as he put 5 freshmen on the field to finish the game (by my unofficial count). Last week, a Liberty League coach made a GK switch consistent with one of your recommendations. Perhaps you could offer a halftime hotline for coaches in distress 

LMAO....You do not know how much I would LOVE that...But it would have to be a 2-way line because I would like to get in their ear as well...+k

[Mr.Right]

Good observations SoccerMom.  I'm harkening back to Mr. Right's opinion that Tufts is the class of the league so far.  Having allowed only one goal, it's hard to argue with that.  I think Bowdoin and Amherst are in the next tier, and Colby is one of the teams who are right behind them.  However, as recent history has shown, anything can and probably will happen during the NESCAC tournament.

People keep talking Bates and Williams with pool C hopes and that Bowdoins chances are poor.  But... why?  I really don't get that.
I don't actually care that much, at this point, I guess, but I guess I am not sure how it is done.

Granted, I have not gotten to watch as much this week.  Also, I havent seen them play live, so could be missing something, but... I don't understand at all how people are reading these things, if it comes down to numbers... which it seems like it has to. 

Trying to figure out how these judgements get made.  Help me out?

I don't think anyone on these Boards has been talking about Bates and Pool C hopes.  That must be a typo.  Did you mean Colby or perhaps Middlebury? The only way Bates has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament is through the AQ and to do that they would need to beat Midd on Saturday, Colby next Wednesday and get help from Colby beating or playing to a draw at Hamilton.  And if all that were to occur, Bates would then need to win the NESCAC tournament.  I have a pretty good idea what percentage chance Mr. Right would put on all that happening...

Regarding the Bowdoin/Tufts comparison, the NESCAC standings reflect the in-conference comparison - not much difference between the two teams (other than goals against).  However, the NCAA Committee looks all at the games played and overall SOS is one of the primary criteria in their ranking process.  SOS and a better overall winning percentage account for the gap between the two teams in the regional rankings.  A few of the regulars on these Boards have noted many times that Bowdoin needs to leave Maine and beef up its non-conference schedule if it wants to improve its Pool C chances year-in and year-out. The same would apply to Colby and Bates. They all play a predominately "Maine" based out of conference schedules.

Having said all that, if Bowdoin beats both Conn and Tufts on the road to finish the regular season, I think they would be a lock for a Pool C berth with at least 4 ranked wins.

Good Post Bobcat..let me give you your first official karma point...You always remember your first. The out of conference SOS that has been added this year is very helpful BUT i must say I find it hard to believe that Bowdoin's Out-of Conference SOS is almost 100 points worse than Williams and Midd's. Bowdoin's out of conference scheduling is bad but Midd's and frankly Williams is not that much better. I expect to see some turnover next week when RvR is added and if Bowdoin can beat Conn I believe they will jump both Midd and Williams.

Bates I would give maybe a 15% chance of qualifying for the Nescac tournament. Why you ask is that # so high because I actually could see them beating Midd and Colby and Hamilton not beating Colby on Saturday. I would of rather seen Bates only 4 points back rather than 5 because it would allow them to go 1-0-1 and hope Hamilton draws. So another draw for Bates in the regular season would have made a big difference. Not beating Trinity about 4 weeks ago killed them and I remember you and myself saying that game was a MUST win for them because of their remaining schedule. +k

[Mr.Right]

Saturday:

Colby at Hamilton----I cannot say enough how disappointed I was to see Hamilton play so bad in the 1st Half at Williams. 2nd Half was better but boy did they come out flat, uninterested and not willing to work hard for 90. That might have been the worst Half any Nescac team has played all year. For this game though I do not think that will happen again. They have looked much better at Home than on the Road this year and have the results to prove it. I think Nizzi needs to change his backline as they were awful yesterday. #17 Kastilahn and #11 Lichtman had games to forget. Both players had massive mistakes on both of Williams goals. Mistakes that 14 year olds would not make. The surprising thing is that both are seniors and should know better. The Hamilton recap is generous to say the least on its write-up stating bad bounces were the reason for the goal and in Lichtman's case not stating anything at all. That is Lichtman's 2nd game costing error this year as I believe he made a mistake to allow Tufts gamewinner as well.  I like the kid Harrington that Nizzi brings off the bench in midfield and he has the size to give the backline a shot IMO. Doubtful that Nizzi will change though as his starting lineup has been pretty consistent all year. On a more positive note #5 Chapman and #12 Wood had a nice combination to get a goal to bring them within 1 and Wood had a really good look at another chance as he was in 1v1 against Williams GK but hit it right at him. Hamilton is going to need someone besides Chapman and Wood to create and score goals. In 9 Nescac games those 2 are the only players with multiple goals and/or assists. Schmidt is a hard worker up top but for the amount of minutes he plays he needs to be more productive as he has 1G/0A in 9 Nescac games and has played I am guessing over 550 minutes up top. He has to produce up there to take some of the load off of Wood and Chapman. Colby who had played so well at Home v Amherst did not play nearly as well on the road at Bowdoin on Tuesday. They came out in the 1st Half flat and conceded late in the 1st Half on a nice individual effort by Bowdoin's Drake Byrd to set up a goal. He absolutely burned 2 Colby defenders in the box and played a nice ball to Schultz. Colby MUST tackle better and stay low and focused. Hamilton must win this game to clinch a Playoff spot as this is their last league game. They can do no better than 6th place but depending on this result look to be finishing #8 or #7. While they would love another chance at Tufts as I am sure they felt they played very well in that game I am not so sure they would fare well on Tufts turf so best to go get the #7 seed but a win will not guarantee avoiding the #8 seed as Colby has a game in hand and are a point better. This is one league matchup that I feel travel does affect the team that is travelling. Waterville to Clinton is a legit 8 hours and it should not be on the schedule this late in the year IMO. This trip with 16 hours of bus time could really affect Colby's next match v Bates as well.   
2-1 Hamilton

Bowdoin at Conn-----Big big game for both teams. You have Nescac seeding and Pool C aspirations on the line. Winner should get the #2 seed in the Nescac Playoffs. Since all the Nescac games this weekend are being played at the same time it will be impossible to watch all of them. I will skip this one as I am not a fan of Conn's stream and I am quite confident there will be no more than 1 goal in this game. It will be interesting to see if Wiercinski keeps the changes he made v Colby with Ward moving into a defensive midfielder role and the big Frosh Donlan at CB who played all 90 in the Colby game. I think he does as it was reasonably successful. I do not like breaking up my CB's late in October but with one of my best leaders in net I feel more comfortable doing it. Still a Frosh is a Frosh and one mental mistake could cost them especially in this game. He has not played much all year. #5 Byrd made a very successful return to the lineup as he created the winning goal v Colby. Conn will have had a full week off and that has given them time to work out some kinks and practice. Usually this time of year coaches do not go as hard in practice because you are trying not to tire your guys out and most teams are as fit as they ever will be almost 2 months into the season. Conn is 6-0-0 at Home and have only given up 2 goals an both of those goals were in garbage time in wins over Mitchell and Bates. Manoogian leads the team with 3 Nescac goals with Miranda getting 2 I am guessing on set pieces. Not sure what Lockwood's injury is but he has not played in nearly a month and they could really use him. I just see a definite stalemate here with neither team creating to many dangerous chances...0-0

Tufts at Williams---In my mind this is the pick of the weekend. Williams played its best Half of the year v Hamilton in the 1st Half and Tufts looked dominant in their 3-0 win at Keene St last night. Williams has played very well at Home all year almost looking like a different team than what you see on the road. Not one team that I have seen has tested Tufts backs and especially their GK's this year. In 8 Nescac games Tufts has 61 SOG with their opponents a measly 23 SOG. So teams are getting on average 3 SOG a game v Tufts. That is an incredible statistic especially in Nescac. IMO the wide field gives Williams a much needed advantage in this game but can they take it? Spread Tufts out and go at them. They will need to possess the ball better than they have against the better teams in the league if they want to generate some dangerous chances v Tufts. Sisco is starting to come on just at the right time as he knows this is it for his career and he wants to get his team into the NCAA's. Williams and Conn are 2 of the hardest working teams in Nescac. They will have to battle Tufts for all 90 and not make any silly mistakes. Senior Milan Jones makes me nervous at wingback for Williams as skilled fast strikers can get what they want against him. Amherst McMillian took him to school earlier in the year. I still think Tufts is beatable and their backline can be had on a good day. Tufts has been the most consistent and best team all year in Nescac  but I am still not convinced. With a win here Williams will punch a ticket to the NCAA's IMO plus they will be JACKED to play the reigning NCAA Champs and maybe just maybe they can slowly start to take back their role as the top dog in the league. 2-1 Williams OT

Middlebury at Bates----Midd has won 4 of its last 5 games all by the score of 1-0. Besides the trashing Tufts put on them they seem to have turned a corner defensively. A win here and a win at Home v Williams midweek should punch their NCAA ticket but they have been burned by the committee the last 2 years so they must advance in the Nescac quarters to feel safe. I still say this team besides Goulart and a couple others needs a total rebuild. Frankly they have not impressed me at all this year and are very beatable. Bates has been dangerous going forward and susceptible in the back all year. They MUST win their final 2 games to have a chance so this game could get stretched and be a wide open affair because Bates just cannot sit in here. They must limit the set pieces Middlebury gets because that is the only way I have seen Midd score all year. I think they take this game and rather easily. Just a hunch I suppose.
2-0 Bates

Wesleyan at Amherst-----No team has had more success against Amherst the past 4-5 years than Wesleyan. Last year they had a comfortable 2-0 lead on Amherst at Home with 5 minutes left and proceeded to lose 3-2 in OT. In 2015, Amherst pummeled them 5-0 at Amherst but they turned around and beat Amherst in one of the biggest upsets in Nescac Playoff history in the Quarters a week later 1-0. Amherst went on to win the NCAA Championship that year but Wesleyan gave them their only loss. In 2012, Amherst had their best team in its history. They dominated everyone that year. They finished 17-0-3 and even dominated Williams all 3 games but ultimately Williams advanced to the NCAA Final 4 in PK's over them. Williams did get 2 draws against them and Wesleyan got the other draw against them that year 1-1. So my point is throw the records out in this rivalry. This year a loss to Wesleyan could really damage Amherst Pool C chances especially if they lost in the Nescac Quarters. At 8-2-2 Amherst is not a complete lock just yet. Wesleyan has put themselves in a tough spot just to get into the Nescac Playoffs. Again a loss to Trinity really hurt. They must win 2 games over Amherst and Conn and hope Hamilton loses to Colby. I give all that happening maybe a 2% chance. They do own the tiebreaker with Bates but i do not think any of this matters. I honestly believe Wesleyan is better than their Nescac record(1-5-2) suggests and Amherst(4-2-2) is not quite as good as theirs. I do believe this will be a tightly played match. I just do not see how Wesleyan scores in this game though. Both teams need to shoot and test these GK's. 0-0

[Bobcat1]

Good observations SoccerMom.  I'm harkening back to Mr. Right's opinion that Tufts is the class of the league so far.  Having allowed only one goal, it's hard to argue with that.  I think Bowdoin and Amherst are in the next tier, and Colby is one of the teams who are right behind them.  However, as recent history has shown, anything can and probably will happen during the NESCAC tournament.

People keep talking Bates and Williams with pool C hopes and that Bowdoins chances are poor.  But... why?  I really don't get that.
I don't actually care that much, at this point, I guess, but I guess I am not sure how it is done.

Granted, I have not gotten to watch as much this week.  Also, I havent seen them play live, so could be missing something, but... I don't understand at all how people are reading these things, if it comes down to numbers... which it seems like it has to. 

Trying to figure out how these judgements get made.  Help me out?

I don't think anyone on these Boards has been talking about Bates and Pool C hopes.  That must be a typo.  Did you mean Colby or perhaps Middlebury? The only way Bates has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament is through the AQ and to do that they would need to beat Midd on Saturday, Colby next Wednesday and get help from Colby beating or playing to a draw at Hamilton.  And if all that were to occur, Bates would then need to win the NESCAC tournament.  I have a pretty good idea what percentage chance Mr. Right would put on all that happening...

Regarding the Bowdoin/Tufts comparison, the NESCAC standings reflect the in-conference comparison - not much difference between the two teams (other than goals against).  However, the NCAA Committee looks all at the games played and overall SOS is one of the primary criteria in their ranking process.  SOS and a better overall winning percentage account for the gap between the two teams in the regional rankings.  A few of the regulars on these Boards have noted many times that Bowdoin needs to leave Maine and beef up its non-conference schedule if it wants to improve its Pool C chances year-in and year-out. The same would apply to Colby and Bates. They all play a predominately "Maine" based out of conference schedules.

Having said all that, if Bowdoin beats both Conn and Tufts on the road to finish the regular season, I think they would be a lock for a Pool C berth with at least 4 ranked wins.

Good Post Bobcat..let me give you your first official karma point...You always remember your first. The out of conference SOS that has been added this year is very helpful BUT i must say I find it hard to believe that Bowdoin's Out-of Conference SOS is almost 100 points worse than Williams and Midd's. Bowdoin's out of conference scheduling is bad but Midd's and frankly Williams is not that much better. I expect to see some turnover next week when RvR is added and if Bowdoin can beat Conn I believe they will jump both Midd and Williams.

Bates I would give maybe a 15% chance of qualifying for the Nescac tournament. Why you ask is that # so high because I actually could see them beating Midd and Colby and Hamilton not beating Colby on Saturday. I would of rather seen Bates only 4 points back rather than 5 because it would allow them to go 1-0-1 and hope Hamilton draws. So another draw for Bates in the regular season would have made a big difference. Not beating Trinity about 4 weeks ago killed them and I remember you and myself saying that game was a MUST win for them because of their remaining schedule. +k

Thank you Mr. Right. Much appreciated. However, I did make a slight error in my post.  Bates actually controls its own NESCAC playoff fate.  A win on Saturday against Midd would give them 8 points and leave them just 3 points behind either Hamilton or Colby regardless of the outcome of that game.  After Saturday's matches, either Hamilton or Colby will have 11 points.  If Bates were to then beat Colby they would have the tie breaker against both teams... Bottom line, Colby just needs a point in either of their last 2 games and they are in. Hamilton needs the W against Colby to guarantee their spot.

And I agree 100% on the Bates vs Trinity result.  We both talked about it leading up to that game.  The task ahead for Bates would be a little less daunting had they secured the 3 points against Trinity.  Anyway, there are some other huge games this weekend.  Bowdoin/Conn and Tufts/Williams have both NESCAC seeding implications, but more importantly could shake up the regional rankings. I look forward to your breakdown and predictions on those games...

[Mr.Right]

Yes but do not forget Wesleyan as they could conceivably get to 11 pts as well and beat Bates....

[nescac1]

I would LOVE for you to be Mr. RIGHT on the Williams-Tufts score, but it would be pretty amazing for Williams, who has struggled to score against the stronger defenses it has faced, to score twice as many goals as Tufts has surrended the entire SEASON so far.  Fingers crossed it happens, though.  But man, Tufts' D sure has been impressive ... what is the record for fewest goals surrendered by a NESCAC team in the regular season?  It HAS to be north of one, I would think ...

[truenorth]

Saturday:



Tufts at Williams---In my mind this is the pick of the weekend. Williams played its best Half of the year v Hamilton in the 1st Half and Tufts looked dominant in their 3-0 win at Keene St last night. Williams has played very well at Home all year almost looking like a different team than what you see on the road. Not one team that I have seen has tested Tufts backs and especially their GK's this year. In 8 Nescac games Tufts has 61 SOG with their opponents a measly 23 SOG. So teams are getting on average 3 SOG a game v Tufts. That is an incredible statistic especially in Nescac. IMO the wide field gives Williams a much needed advantage in this game but can they take it? Spread Tufts out and go at them. They will need to possess the ball better than they have against the better teams in the league if they want to generate some dangerous chances v Tufts. Sisco is starting to come on just at the right time as he knows this is it for his career and he wants to get his team into the NCAA's. Williams and Conn are 2 of the hardest working teams in Nescac. They will have to battle Tufts for all 90 and not make any silly mistakes. Senior Milan Jones makes me nervous at wingback for Williams as skilled fast strikers can get what they want against him. Amherst McMillian took him to school earlier in the year. I still think Tufts is beatable and their backline can be had on a good day. Tufts has been the most consistent and best team all year in Nescac  but I am still not convinced. With a win here Williams will punch a ticket to the NCAA's IMO plus they will be JACKED to play the reigning NCAA Champs and maybe just maybe they can slowly start to take back their role as the top dog in the league. 2-1 Williams OT

Mr. Right, given the current slate of coaches in the NESCAC and the performance trendlines for the teams over last 3-4 years, what would have to happen for Williams to regain their league dominance?  I think it would be more of a challenge today than it would have been 10 years ago for them to leapfrog Tufts and Amherst, and maybe even Bowdoin and Middlebury for that matter...

[blooter442]

I would LOVE for you to be Mr. RIGHT on the Williams-Tufts score, but it would be pretty amazing for Williams, who has struggled to score against the stronger defenses it has faced, to score twice as many goals as Tufts has surrended the entire SEASON so far.  Fingers crossed it happens, though.  But man, Tufts' D sure has been impressive ... what is the record for fewest goals surrendered by a NESCAC team in the regular season?  It HAS to be north of one, I would think ...

I like Williams in this one to get at least a draw. Not sure that they will win, though. Either way, I'll admit that I was completely wrong about Tufts' defense -- at the beginning of the year I thought they might struggle missing Greenwood, as he was huge in their run to the national title (Sullivan I thought was good as well but Greenwood was the star for me). Anyway, Coleman has done a fantastic job leading that back line, and has to be in with a shout for individual AA honors. Obviously Johnson and Mieth have performed well, but I don't think they've been tested that much (Johnson, for his part, has only faced 16 SOG all year, whereas Greenwood had made 38 saves by this point last year), and I think a big part of that has to do with the Tufts back line not allowing many goalscoring chances.

[SoccerMom_5]

Good observations SoccerMom.  I'm harkening back to Mr. Right's opinion that Tufts is the class of the league so far.  Having allowed only one goal, it's hard to argue with that.  I think Bowdoin and Amherst are in the next tier, and Colby is one of the teams who are right behind them.  However, as recent history has shown, anything can and probably will happen during the NESCAC tournament.

People keep talking Bates and Williams with pool C hopes and that Bowdoins chances are poor.  But... why?  I really don't get that.
I don't actually care that much, at this point, I guess, but I guess I am not sure how it is done.

Granted, I have not gotten to watch as much this week.  Also, I havent seen them play live, so could be missing something, but... I don't understand at all how people are reading these things, if it comes down to numbers... which it seems like it has to. 

Trying to figure out how these judgements get made.  Help me out?

I don't think anyone on these Boards has been talking about Bates and Pool C hopes.  That must be a typo.  Did you mean Colby or perhaps Middlebury? The only way Bates has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament is through the AQ and to do that they would need to beat Midd on Saturday, Colby next Wednesday and get help from Colby beating or playing to a draw at Hamilton.  And if all that were to occur, Bates would then need to win the NESCAC tournament.  I have a pretty good idea what percentage chance Mr. Right would put on all that happening...

Regarding the Bowdoin/Tufts comparison, the NESCAC standings reflect the in-conference comparison - not much difference between the two teams (other than goals against).  However, the NCAA Committee looks all at the games played and overall SOS is one of the primary criteria in their ranking process.  SOS and a better overall winning percentage account for the gap between the two teams in the regional rankings.  A few of the regulars on these Boards have noted many times that Bowdoin needs to leave Maine and beef up its non-conference schedule if it wants to improve its Pool C chances year-in and year-out. The same would apply to Colby and Bates. They all play a predominately "Maine" based out of conference schedules.

Having said all that, if Bowdoin beats both Conn and Tufts on the road to finish the regular season, I think they would be a lock for a Pool C berth with at least 4 ranked wins.

Sorry.  I meant *Bowdoin* & Pool C hopes. Not Bates.  ( I was multi-tasking and just typed a Maine school with a B. My bad.  I meant Bowdoin. )

So... does the team who wins the NESCAC, automatically participate in  playoffs, or does it come down to qualifying for "Pool C" or whatever, if they arent ranked. 


It is really weird that teams get ranked ao much lower on the national rankings than multiple teams that they have beaten, isnt it?  To me that is just so bizarre. 

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Winner of the NESCAC playoff tournament is an AQ for the NCAA tournament.  Any other NESCAC participant in the NCAA tournament is as a Pool C selection by the Committee.