NESCAC

[oldonionbag]

No NESCAC team is worth all these words. Frankly, it's become an agricultural league of grinders and grapplers. I'll never get back the 120' of my life I tossed away attending Tufts-Bowdoin last week.

Yes, because normally when I attend a game in which neither team playing actually needs to win to make the playoffs I expect to see gambles and all out attacks! Good analysis!

[blooter442]

No NESCAC team is worth all these words. Frankly, it's become an agricultural league of grinders and grapplers. I'll never get back the 120' of my life I tossed away attending Tufts-Bowdoin last week.

Personally, I thought that game had 0-0 written all over it, but still went and thought it was an entertaining, competitive match. Entertainment is not necessarily correlated with goals. For what it's worth, Brandeis' 1-0 win over Vassar in the NCAA 2nd Round five years back was, in my opinion, the best college soccer game I've ever witnessed in person (shameless college news article plug). Scoreless for 89:30, but there were 34 combined shots, two disallowed goals, two shots that hit the woodwork, and two shots cleared off the line...and a winning goal with 29.4 seconds left in regulation. To each their own.

[Mr.Right]

Any end of season award predictions from the experts in the room? Looking at you Mr. Right

Sorry just saw this..Yea I am not big on the awards thing like others on here but since you asked I will give it a go. Mind you these are my awards not who will likely win as that is to boring. I must say this has to be the toughest year to do this.

POY---I like strikers. I like speed. I like skill. This league is slowly losing legit strikers to ones that can get on the end of set pieces. My pick would have to be Aidan Wood. I believe he leads the league with 5 Nescac goals and basically put his team on his back against Amherst. I think he went cold in the middle of the season but honestly I am not picking a freakin GK for POY nor a defender unless they truly deserve it and I am not seeing it. I dont care if Tufts let up 1 goal. Honestly I have no idea who else to pick here. Goulart? Zach Lane? Please...Merchant? I mean good luck to the coaches that actually have to vote.

COY---Shapiro---I would have to say this might be his best coaching job of any of the years as this team to me is full of very good not great but good players. He just has an abundance of them. To my friend Paul Newman who seems to be Tufts biggest cheerleader these days PLEASE give me 3 starters or even 2 starters on 2017 Tufts that would have started in 2014 or even 2015...I see maybe 2 maybe but I'll keep that to myself. To me this team is a bunch of role players for a really LEGIT D3 team of which we do not have this year. So there is that. I just think Tufts is really going to struggle scoring in the NCAA's and better be practicing PK's already because if that is a Final 4 team than they might need 2-3 shootout wins to get there. The reality is they are not a Final 4 team and can and will be beaten maybe even this weekend. But we will see as I said if I am wrong I will admit it and you can quote me all day I am just not seeing it..

I got off track and gotta run but remind me what the other awards are? I will finish later

[PaulNewman]

Mr.Right, I think we're just looking at different sides of the same thing.  You are correct.  No one player for Tufts stands out.  No Santos, for example, although remember that apparently part of the genius of Shapiro is that he wasn't even starting Santos at the beginning of 2014.  But there really are no Payne for Messiah or Cavers for Loras or Ryan for Camden or even Pacual-Leone for Amherst anywhere in the country this year.  So I look at the the Tufts system and a ton of very good players, a huge team in size, supreme confidence, superb coaching, and only an own goal allowed, and I see a team I wouldn't want to draw and that will an extremely tough out.

Also, I'm not even in 2014 a single Tufts player would have started for 2014 Messiah.  Maybe 1 or 2, but tell who for Messiah is going to the bench.  Sometimes it's the aggregate more than the individual talents.

[Mr.Right]

Vaild points and fair enough for now.

[Mr.Right]

ROY---Sebastian Derby for Amherst...He has come on VERY strong at the end of the year with 4 goals in his last 3 Nescac games to finish the year with 5 goals. Not sure what I make of him as a player as of yet BUT he is finishing at an impressive clip the last 2 weeks which says a ton in this league.

[blooter442]

Also, I'm not even in 2014 a single Tufts player would have started for 2014 Messiah.  Maybe 1 or 2, but tell who for Messiah is going to the bench.  Sometimes it's the aggregate more than the individual talents.

I agree with most of this, but I also think it's easier to put two teams next to one another when you're picking a combined XI rather than saying "whom would you bench from that team?" Easier to justify picking X player over Y when you're putting two teams next to each other and picking a lineup rather than saying you'd bench a player who hasn't done much wrong. Aside from Payne, I can't say I am super familiar with that 2014 Messiah team, but I'd say that Sam Williams -- whom I think is one of the best center backs the NESCAC has seen in the last 5-10 years -- and Santos would be in with a shout in a combined XI (theoretically speaking).

I was a huge fan of Williams -- he had a very high soccer IQ but also the physicality to hold his own. Lee-Kramer was good, too, and very imposing, but Williams was the leader of that defense, and a deserved All-American.

[Mr.Right]

For Saturday:

Hamilton at Tufts---Hamilton has been playing very well the past month except for an absolute stinker at Williams and a loss at Ononta St. Both were midweek road games. Their win at Amherst last weekend was impressive as the whole team really battled and dug deep especially when trailing 2-0. They will not have that luxury this time around and CANNOT step onto the field sleepwalking for the first 20 or until they concede. They must be ready to go. These 2 teams the past 3 years have played some really great games. This year in an even game in Clinton,NY Tufts came away with a 1-0 victory on if I remember correctly a defensive miscue by Lichtman. There were not to many SOG from either side. Last year, Hamilton battled back on Bello Field to grab a 2-2 draw and in 2015 Hamilton upset the defending national champs in Clinton,NY.  Hamilton's GK Cadwell must be on his game as the defense in front of him still makes me nervy. To many mistakes back there have cost Hamilton games this year. If they can stay compact and organized they will give themselves a chance to win this game. Hamilton should generate more chances than Bates last Saturday v Tufts but not many more so Wood, Schmidt, Morris, Chapman etc must bust all game and when they are given a sniff make sure to put it home. Hamilton's depth drops off significantly after about the 2nd-3rd substitution they make as Myers, Casadei and Harrington and possibly in this game the big Alaskan tree Cerveny could get a 10-15 minute run. Tufts depth does not drop off like Hamilton's as previously noted which can make it difficult on opponents late in the 2nd Half. See if Hamilton can take advantage of a 11am start time as Tufts usually do not get going until 3pm at Home. I just do not think Hamilton's defense can keep them in this particular matchup. 2-0 Tufts

Bowdoin v Midd---This will be a somewhat thuggish affair especially on that turf with the ball spending a ton of time in the air. Both teams will be particularly cautious and SOG will be very low as this is a definite play-in game for the NCAA's IMO. Bowdoin has not won a game in almost 3 weeks as they have had 3 straight draws against solid competition. Still 1 goal in 3 games is not good against anyone. Midd is playing much better lately and remarkably better than the beatdown Bowdoin put on them earlier in the year. I honestly do not think one team is that much better than the other except maybe in net. Midd's GK has his good games and not so good games but he is no Sydor. He certainly is capable of shutting out Bowdoin though. Honestly flip a coin. I will say both teams will want their revenge on Tufts as Bowdoin must of felt a bit robbed and Midd got its head handed to them on a platter a month ago. I'll go with my gut and say Saward gets his troops motivated to keep his career alive. He is always good in these back against the wall situations. 1-1 Midd PK's

[PaulNewman]

Also, I'm not even in 2014 a single Tufts player would have started for 2014 Messiah.  Maybe 1 or 2, but tell who for Messiah is going to the bench.  Sometimes it's the aggregate more than the individual talents.

I agree with most of this, but I also think it's easier to put two teams next to one another when you're picking a combined XI rather than saying "whom would you bench from that team?" Easier to justify picking X player over Y when you're putting two teams next to each other and picking a lineup rather than saying you'd bench a player who hasn't done much wrong. Aside from Payne, I can't say I am super familiar with that 2014 Messiah team, but I'd say that Sam Williams -- whom I think is one of the best center backs the NESCAC has seen in the last 5-10 years -- and Santos would be in with a shout in a combined XI (theoretically speaking).

Correction:  Ah, I'm mixing up 2013 Messiah with 2014.  Josh Wood graduated in 2013.  So think of Jack Thompson versus a Hoppenot haha.

I was a huge fan of Williams -- he had a very high soccer IQ but also the physicality to hold his own. Lee-Kramer was good, too, and very imposing, but Williams was the leader of that defense, and a deserved All-American.

Yeah, there might be one or two, but Messiah had an absolute stud at every single position.  Williams was great but Robbins for Messiah was probably considered the best CB in the country, although Justice wasn't bad.  Would Kayne have started over Payne or Ramirez?  Hoppenot over Josh Wood?  Patel versus Kremers at left back might be a close call.  Maybe Greenwood (then a soph) over the Messiah GK?  Anyway, interesting to think about.

[Dave B]

Also, I'm not even in 2014 a single Tufts player would have started for 2014 Messiah.  Maybe 1 or 2, but tell who for Messiah is going to the bench.  Sometimes it's the aggregate more than the individual talents.

I agree with most of this, but I also think it's easier to put two teams next to one another when you're picking a combined XI rather than saying "whom would you bench from that team?" Easier to justify picking X player over Y when you're putting two teams next to each other and picking a lineup rather than saying you'd bench a player who hasn't done much wrong. Aside from Payne, I can't say I am super familiar with that 2014 Messiah team, but I'd say that Sam Williams -- whom I think is one of the best center backs the NESCAC has seen in the last 5-10 years -- and Santos would be in with a shout in a combined XI (theoretically speaking).

I was a huge fan of Williams -- he had a very high soccer IQ but also the physicality to hold his own. Lee-Kramer was good, too, and very imposing, but Williams was the leader of that defense, and a deserved All-American.

Yeah, there might be one or two, but Messiah had an absolute stud at every single position.  Williams was great but Robbins for Messiah was probably considered the best CB in the country, although Justice wasn't bad.  Would Kayne have started over Payne or Ramirez?  Hoppenot over Josh Wood?  Patel versus Kremers at left back might be a close call.  Maybe Greenwood (then a soph) over the Messiah GK?  Anyway, interesting to think about.

Actually, Josh Wood ('13 POY) graduated in '13 and is the main reason I'd take the '13 team over the '14 team, but I think the class of '14 is probably the best overall class that Messiah has had.

[PaulNewman]

Also, I'm not even in 2014 a single Tufts player would have started for 2014 Messiah.  Maybe 1 or 2, but tell who for Messiah is going to the bench.  Sometimes it's the aggregate more than the individual talents.

I agree with most of this, but I also think it's easier to put two teams next to one another when you're picking a combined XI rather than saying "whom would you bench from that team?" Easier to justify picking X player over Y when you're putting two teams next to each other and picking a lineup rather than saying you'd bench a player who hasn't done much wrong. Aside from Payne, I can't say I am super familiar with that 2014 Messiah team, but I'd say that Sam Williams -- whom I think is one of the best center backs the NESCAC has seen in the last 5-10 years -- and Santos would be in with a shout in a combined XI (theoretically speaking).

I was a huge fan of Williams -- he had a very high soccer IQ but also the physicality to hold his own. Lee-Kramer was good, too, and very imposing, but Williams was the leader of that defense, and a deserved All-American.

Yeah, there might be one or two, but Messiah had an absolute stud at every single position.  Williams was great but Robbins for Messiah was probably considered the best CB in the country, although Justice wasn't bad.  Would Kayne have started over Payne or Ramirez?  Hoppenot over Josh Wood?  Patel versus Kremers at left back might be a close call.  Maybe Greenwood (then a soph) over the Messiah GK?  Anyway, interesting to think about.

Actually, Josh Wood ('13 POY) graduated in '13 and is the main reason I'd take the '13 team over the '14 team, but I think the class of '14 is probably the best overall class that Messiah has had.

I was just posting my correction when you posted and it disappeared.  Yeah, Wood was gone, so let's substitute Jack Thompson haha.

P.S.  I was mixing '13 and '14.  Kremers was gone too, so I'll give Patel for Tufts that left back slot.

[blooter442]

Yeah, there might be one or two, but Messiah had an absolute stud at every single position.  Williams was great but Robbins for Messiah was probably considered the best CB in the country, although Justice wasn't bad.  Would Kayne have started over Payne or Ramirez?  Hoppenot over Josh Wood?  Patel versus Kremers at left back might be a close call.  Maybe Greenwood (then a soph) over the Messiah GK?  Anyway, interesting to think about.

Indeed, certainly would be an interesting exercise. Speaking of Payne, I just found out that he is leading the charge at Eastern, who is in the MAC Freedom final tomorrow against DeSales. Great for him.

Prediction time!

Tufts 1-0 Hamilton: Unlike both teams' quarterfinal games, I don't expect this to be a game with many goals. I do think Hamilton showed great spirit coming back from 2-0 down at Amherst, and this has been a program that has really gone from the basement of the NESCAC to truly contending for the conference title the last few years. However, the Continentals have been plauged by inconsistency -- they got an impressive string of results against Amherst, Utica, and Bowdoin, but then were thumped at SUNY Oneonta. The Red Dragons are a very good side, mind you, but that scoreline shows they were outclassed after taking an early 1-0 lead. Tufts, on the other hand, has been incredibly consistent this year, even if not producing salivating, swashbuckling attacking play, although they and Williams, I think, are still the two best examples of possession sides in the NESCAC. Aidan Wood has really come on strong this year and could definitely cause the Tufts back line problems if left unchecked, but I suspect they'll have one of their midfielders man-marking him. At the other end, Tufts gets one and it ends up being enough.

Bowdoin 0-0 Middlebury (Bowdoin in PKs): I really hope to be wrong, but I think this will be a doozy of a game. And that's not because of the anticipated scoreline (as I said earlier, goals don't necessarily correlate with excitement) -- neither team will take many risks, and the ball will probably be in the air quite often. For Bowdoin, I anticipate McColl will be a big threat down the side on the overlap, as well as on set pieces, and I think Byrd will cause some problems, but I think Middlebury will keep them in check for the most part. Conversely, I do not see many goals in Midd.'s team -- they have 7 total conference goals. Goulart has had a nice sophomore season and got the winner against Williams a couple of weeks back, and Reid, Sass, and O'Grady have produced as well, but I am not sure they will breach a Bowdoin defense that has only given up 9 goals all year and has 8 shutouts to its credit. The one thing that could help Midd. is that the Panthers play on turf, while Bowdoin does not, although Bowdoin is 3-1-1 on turf this year so that might not be a big factor. Should it go to PKs, which I think it could, Yeager has had a good year in net, but I would find it hard to pick against van Siclen.

[truenorth]

I find myself largely agreeing with Blooter's predictions.  Tufts should prevail over Hamilton, especially given they're playing at home. 

Bowdoin will play conservatively as usual and look for an opportunistic goal.  If it goes to PKs, Bowdoin is more likely than Middlebury to prevail, both because Van Siclen is a very good keeper but also because they just had a PK experience last weekend vs. Williams.  Yes, you could make the argument that an opposing team gets to study another team's PK shot taking tendencies, but I think that is outweighed by the benefits of just having been through the experience and also having confidence in a superior keeper.

[RelegationZone]

Tufts 1
Hamilton 2 (1OT)

Bowdoin 2
Middlebury 0

[cac.aholic1]

Tufts 2-1 Hamilton in 2OT: Wood gets one for Hamilton, but Tufts gets one back quickly. Hamilton tires in OT and Tufts wins it.

Bowdoin 1-0 Midd: This is a total coin flip. I go Bowdoin because I think they've been able to create a good number of chances this year (including on the Tufts turf a week and a half ago), they just struggle to finish them. After how many chances they blew last week, someone finally steps up a buries one this week. They proceed to shell out for the rest of the game and barely survive.