NESCAC

[Mr.Right]

Nescac Predictions:


Amherst at Wesleyan--------Interesting Friday night Nescac rivalry match on the Football turf at Wesleyan. Wesleyan is mathematically alive for the Nescac Playoffs but realistically have no shot IMO. Unfortunately, after watching Wesleyan get ripped to shreds by Williams last weekend I am not sure this will be an even game. Wesleyan looked AWFUL in that game defensively, GK was not good and especially in attack. They had NOTHING going forward and created absolutely nothing in that game. It seems like they cleaned it all up defensively in their next game at Midd losing 1-0 in OT but again they not only cannot score goals they are creating very little throughout the game to even get opportunities to score. I will say most years they play Amherst tough even when they have nothing to play for and this game will be on turf which might help Wesleyan but I am not seeing it this year. This will be the 3rd straight year Wesleyan finishes outside the Top 8 and that is unacceptable for a school like Wesleyan and a solid tradition that Wheeler has built over the years. This team might be one of the worst Wesleyan sides Wheeler has ever had but some of his tactical decisions should be questioned because a player like KMP is playing so deep that he does not have a Goal or Assist all year and only has totaled 5 Shots in 2018. He MUST be pushed out wide or atleast moved up to get him some chances against a weaker Amherst backline than in years past. Amherst is 8-3-1 and will finish the regular season playing 3 games in 6 days but two of the games are against Wesleyan and Trinity and the other at Brandeis. Even with some of the issues Amherst has had defensively this game is a complete mismatch and while Wesleyan MIGHT keep this game close I think Amherst cruises to victory as they MUST get 3 pts to basically clinch a Home Field Quarter-Final match in the Nescac Playoffs. A Draw or worse will really cause Amherst some heartache as they would be stuck in 4th/5th/6th place until other games are played.Amherst rolls right over Wesleyan in this one and Wheeler really needs to get some talent back into the program.....Amherst 3-0



Bates at Midd-------Bates traditionally always plays Middlebury tough no matter each teams record. Last year Bates interrupted a 6 game streak of 1-0 Wins for Middlebury by defeating them up in Lewiston 3-0 and only allowing Midd 1 SOG. It was a major upset that allowed Bates to qualify for the Nescac Tournament for the first time since 2010. I expect this game to be close as well as I think Bates will bounce back from their midweek shellacking at Bowdoin. Both teams are desperate for 3 pts. Midd needs to keep Winning games for their NCAA hopes and to clinch Home Field in the Nescac Quarters. Bates needs 3 pts to make sure they qualify for their second straight Nescac Tournament. Even if Bates loses this game they will not be eliminated as they will need to defeat Colby at Home on the last game of the year. After Bates defensive lapses in the 2nd Half at Bowdoin I expect Sheikh to re-organize them and will need the leadership of Senior CB Sam Huebschmann to get the back 4 organized. He was pissed after each Bowdoin Goal because they were all avoidable. The wingbacks must drop off because it sounds like the speedy Drake Byrd were running them ragged. If your wingbacks are slower than the opponents attacking players than you MUST take 2-3 steps back and give them space BUT it will also give you a couple steps advantage so they can not just burn you with pace. Middlebury has more talent in their starting 11 and while they struggled a bit finding the net last night at Castleton and Nescac POW Dan O'Grady did not play so hopefully for Midd's sake he was getting a chance to rest his legs as they were coming off a doubleheader this past weekend. I said my piece on Montanaro but he is still a great shot stopper and Bakken continues to play VERY WELL. Both teams have wingers that can cause the other teams wingbacks problems BUT which team will capitalize? Honestly I think Midd will struggle to put Bates away but somehow find a way to get it done........Midd 2-1



Conn College at Bowdoin------IMO this game is a total coin flip. Bowdoin is red hot right now as they are 6-0-2 in their last 8 games and have not lost a game in over a month which was a shocking 2-0 loss at Wesleyan. That loss to Wesleyan really hurts right now because they would be in NCAA Pool C contention without it and also would be that much closer to a Home Field game in the Nescac tournament. Bowdoin's Frosh GK Kingston has been really playing well and should give Bowdoin a solid GK the next 4 years. Interestingly, Kingston is 6-2-2 this season but only has 2 Shutouts so teams are getting opportunities to score goals against Bowdoin unlike last year when they were shutting down teams. Byrd and Chaban have skill and speed and Wiercinski is using 3-4 Frosh every game and getting rewarded with some solid production. Bowdoin's backline of Reid, Niang, McColl and Miller can deal with Conn's speedy wingers and Butera and Manoogian in midfield. Along with Stenquist they should be able to keep Conn's potent attack to a minimum of chances. On the flip Conn's CB's Donelan and Stoneback have played well all year in front of the best GK in the league AJ Marcucci. Both teams have shown this year with a lead they will sit on it pretty well and see the game out. Both teams will waste time in the 2nd Half if they have the lead which will lead to an even 18 to 18 battle. Bowdoin has a chance to grab 2 HUGE Wins in this game and v Tufts next week to secure 2 key Wins v Ranked and most likely a Pool C bid or at the very least a bubble team. Their weak SOS should be raised quite a bit after these next two games but at some point all these games Bowdoin has played lately 7 games in 18 days will catch up to them somewhere. How badly does Conn want to host the Nescac Tournament as a Win here would make it much more likely as Tufts still has Williams and Bowdoin on their schedule. I am going with a scoreless draw..........0-0



Hamilton at Colby----This is a massive game for BOTH teams. Hamilton will clinch a Nescac Playoff berth with a Win in this game. This is their final regular season game and could be their final game of the season if they lose. Colby still travels to Bates next week so a loss will not eliminate them unless Bates defeats Midd. BOTH teams along with Wesleyan have proven all year they are anemic in attack. Colby has 3 Goals in 8 Games and Hamilton has 5 Goals in 9 Games so combined they are averaging under a half a goal a game. THAT IS JUST PISS POOR.  Amazingly, Hamilton has been involved in TEN 1-0 games. They are surprisingly 4-2-0 on the Road but this is a 9 hour bus ride one way. Hamilton looked useless in the final 3rd yesterday against Williams and striker Schmidt did not even play. Wood was kept in check all game and frankly has been all season as he has just 1 goal. I like both teams GK'ers and CB's. Colby's wingbacks have been a problem all year and Hamilton's have been decent but make careless mistakes at times. I think Colby has the better midfield but Hamilton's Matt Jordan has come out of nowhere and showed he has some skill and a great work ethic. This is another toss up and I think Perry Nizzi needs to get his team pumped and ready to attack as they have nothing to lose. Hamilton's size on their backline could be a weapon on their own set pieces to try to find a goal but Colby should be able to match them defensively. Honestly, I have no idea but I am going to say both teams find a goal but neither find a Win.........1-1



Williams at Tufts-------Williams has gone 4-0-1 in their last 5 games and are starting to really gel especially in the back with Oberg and Scatt MacDonald. Ranieri did not play again yesterday but veteran Paul Griffith has done a nice job filling in at wingback the past few weeks. Williams has been getting some key goals by Andreou off of set pieces but are still struggling to score goals in the run of play. Besides a 5-0 and 3-0 trashing of Trinity and Wesleyan they have really struggled getting goals against the other Nescac sides. This game should help Williams weak SOS which IIRC was at .547 which is not good. They will play Midd after this game so I would imagine they finish the regular season somewhere around .570 SOS. Even with a respectable 8-3-2 record that .570 SOS will not be good enough alone to get them a Pool C considering if you look around not only the region but the country there are a considerable amount of teams with SOS of .590 or better. So that means Williams will HAVE to make up for that with Ranked Wins and right now they have 2. I would say they have 3 but Hamilton will most definitely drop out. So they have Wins at Amherst and v Babson. They lost to Conn and I expect Bowdoin to be ranked and they got a Draw against them. If by chance Skidmore gets ranked that would be another loss. So as of now they would be 2-1-1 v Ranked and this game plus the Midd game will give them 2 chances to get results v Ranked. Tufts has not a regular season Home game in 2 years and Williams has not defeated Tufts in Sullivan's tenure and not since 2013. This is a tough matchup for them on the turf at Tufts and the loss of Gass up top who was their best striker really hurts for this game. They are giving a ton of inexperienced guys up front a bunch of minutes and against Tufts experienced and solid back 4 and GK I am not sure Williams will be able to score in this game. They are capable of scoring but they must try to spread Tufts out and cannot sit in deep and hold their wingbacks from attacking if they want to get a goal. I think they need to take a chance and send numbers forward to allow them a chance to give them numbers on the attack. Williams will lose the midfield battle with Tufts but I have a ton of confidence in saying Williams has the better CB's in this game. Oberg and Scatt are smarter and tougher than Najjar and Paoletta. That might be the only advantage Williams has in this game. My heart says Williams but my head says Tufts will Win this game in typical fashion and limit Williams opportunities........1-0 Tufts

[Mr.Right]

I'm not as down on Montanaro as you Mr. Right. I agree he could have dove on it but it looked like he thought he could get a foot on it initially and just missed it. It was misplayed but I wouldn't reconsider your whole outlook on him. Likewise, on the third goal I thought he was far back into the goal and could have possibly cut off the cross. I think some of this is the nescac mindset that we play back and conservative and don't get beat too far forward. The GK catches that contagion as well. Instead of saying "hey we are aggressively attacking and everyone needs to be ready and aggressive and the GK better be ready to come forward and break up a cross" all of them are sitting back afraid to make a mistake. Just my opinion. Interested in your thoughts.

I'm not down on him and I still think he is a solid GK I just am disappointed he didn't put his body/face on the line to get that ball. If he thought he could kick it he would not have hesitated right before the Bowdoin player got to it. I fully believe he did not have the sack to get his nose in there and take one for the team and THAT IS the difference between average teams and good teams. Had he got that ball who knows maybe Bates would have kept focus and held on for the win..We will never know but it is plays like that where players show what kind of guts they have and he came up short of any kind of courage and quite possibly cost his team.

[mightymoedog]

I think Bowdoin is red hot right now.  IMO Wiercinski has made the adjustments the team needed to finally get some scoring.  They have played a lot of games lately, and that doesn't seem to let up soon.  This keeps them sharp, and puts them in excellent position to pull off the upset against Conn College.  With it being Senior day, I think the freshman will lift them to a 2-1 win.

[mightymoedog]

Looking at Middlebury, why has Brandan Barry not played more this year?  He has some great stats in limited time, and coming out of high school, he was highly touted to be a great player at this level.  If they want to have a chance at beating Bates they need to get Barry in the game and let him work his magic.

[Bucket]

Looking at Middlebury, why has Brandan Barry not played more this year?  He has some great stats in limited time, and coming out of high school, he was highly touted to be a great player at this level.  If they want to have a chance at beating Bates they need to get Barry in the game and let him work his magic.

Actually, Barry has played quite a bit as of late and in pivotal moments. He's often the first player off the bench for Elias, and as others have noted, Midd's starting 11 is as good as any other's in the conference. So I think he is slotted exactly where he should be, and as the season has progressed he's been given more and more time.

[mightymoedog]

s, Barry has been playing more, but he should be in tye starting lineup.  With a talent like his, they would be competing with Tufts and Conn College, instead of hoping to host a playoff game. 

[amh63]

As predicted, Amherst wins in Middletown, 3-0.  The temperature dropped on a windy evening.  It was senior night for the Cardinals and they played aggressively for a time.  2-0 at the half and 3-0 in the "4th quarter" so to speak.

[Mr.Right]

As I predicted Amherst absolutely took it to Wesleyan. With three straight years of missing the Nescac Playoffs Wheeler really needs to bring in a solid class. I think if he does not get this thing turned around he could be in a bit of trouble as Head Coach at Wesleyan. He has been at Wesleyan for 18 years so I really hope he gets the benefit of doubt and is allowed a chance to rebuild his program but there has to be some heat on him in Middletown,CT. I mean he has holes everywhere although the GK last night did make a few tremendous saves so he might be one to hang on to. He was using Franklin in net but sacked him after his debacle at Williams last weekend and went to the 6'5 Frosh Lowen. Devanny is only a Junior so he will be back, Wolf is a Junior and has some skill, Haas and JJ Lacorte will be back up top but that is it and he loses Teddy Lyons and KMP. He might have to pull a Seabrook and bring in 17 Frosh and just see what he gets and weed out the waste. They finish with Conn and their Vassar game got cancelled so they will finish with 14 Games. They have 7 Goals ALL SEASON and have been shutout 8 out 14 Games this season. Bleak bleak stuff.........

[Mr.Right]

Bates at Midd....Conn at Bowdoin just getting underway....Couple of lineup notes..Midd has holding midfielder Barovick back in the lineup but still are missing key leader O'Grady as I am not sure his injury...Bates coming off a disappointing performance at Bowdoin finally stick Opoku in the starting lineup....Conn has key striker MT Tshuma back in the starting lineup but key winger Dieng is not in the starting lineup but will come off the bench to add a spark against winded starters. I like the idea if that is the reasoning behind it but it also could be disciplinary so who knows.

[BendIt007]

Going Conn 2 - 1... field looks like in good shape.

[Mr.Right]

Bowdoin in a 4-2-3-1 with their usual back 4 LB McColl, CB's Reid and Niang and RB Miller then holding is Stenquist and Houseman and attacking is Frosh Cooper with Byrd wide left and Shultz wide right and the Frosh Uek up top....

[Mr.Right]

Going Conn 2 - 1... field looks like in good shape.

Yes.....I would say Williams has the best field in Nescac with Bowdoin right behind them. Both schools have great fields. I would say Bates, Conn and Wesleyan are in a 3 way tie for the absolute worst fields in Nescac.

[Mr.Right]

Midd v Bates is 0-0 at the Half...Midd has been all over Bates in the 1st Half especially the last 15-20 minutes. Midd has had about 2-3 really solid looks but have not been able to finish. Bates is sitting compact and deep and just absorbing pressure. They have been pretty effective so far and look to be playing for a point in this game and maybe trying to sneak a goal on the counter. Let's see if Midd can break thru in the 2nd Half.

[Mr.Right]

Conn at Bowdoin also 0-0 at the Half. Nether team with to many dangerous chances as both teams playing it a bit cautious which was predictable. I will say Byrd has been the most dynamic attacking player on the field as he is making some nice slashing runs and using his speed to get into dangerous areas of the field. Both strikers for Bowdoin are 6'4 Frosh Uek and his replacement Charlie Ward are obviously big but both look to be slow especially Ward and are not the most skilled strikers but Wiercinski looking for them to finish on a set piece or cross with their heads.

[Mr.Right]

Bowdoin goes up on Conn 1-0 with about 20 minutes left off a corner. Honestly, Bowdoin has outplayed Conn today and have looked the better side with a few more dangerous chances. Only the 3rd goal let up by Conn and Marcucci all season. It was a beauty of a goal and a HUGE goal for Bowdoin's season. A beautiful serve by McColl found a charging Levi Morant's head who flicked it beautifully across the box to a wide open Niang who finished it...Very nice goal...I expect Bowdoin to now sit and get into a compact shell and waste time to see this goal out....1-0 Bowdoin 20 minutes left