NESCAC

[camosfan]

NESCAC is wide open, except for Hamilton and Bates any team can emerge.

[Buck O.]

No knock on Dezotell, it's just that Shapiro was a generational sort of coach in D3 and is already crushing it at Harvard.

I was curious why you said that Shapiro is already crushing it at Harvard.  I mean, as I said when he got the job, I think that he was a fine choice, but Harvard was just 3-2-2 in the Ivy last year.  Much better than in 2019 (although there was nowhere to go but up), but perhaps a bit early to conclude that he's crushing it?

[nescac1]

They went from 0-14-1 to 8-5-3 in one season.  He had more Ivy wins than Harvard's prior three seasons combined.  How much better could he do???

[Ephraim_Williams1]

I can assure you no 'elitism' going on here. Ranked Conn 4th in a preseason poll behind 3 teams who all made the Elite 8 a year ago. No knock on Conn as I mentioned I think they make it back to NCAAs. Just my feeling that being the hunter is a lot easier than being the hunted...

That being said, putting Conn, coming off a national title, at four to start the season feels pretty disrespectful, especially considering that Tufts and Amherst both lost MASSIVE pieces to graduation.  Yes, Conn had some fortunate results deep in the tourney, but a national title is no joke.  Conn's recruiting is on the upswing so you would assume the talent pool will only continue to grow there after experiencing so much relatively newfound success over the past few years.  The coaching staff, obviously tremendous - Conn seems to keep improving each season.  And they bring most of their critical guys back -- Yeonas, Djerdjaj, Kelesoglu, Jaran, Maidenberg - it's not like they lose much from the title team at all.

I tend to agree with you about Conn.  There's a little bit of elitism going on most likely.  Partly, that's in the soccer sense that the traditional "top" schools and their fans probably still view Conn's nat'l championship run as a bit flukey and won't believe in them without several more years of sustained success (in other words, they're still in the show me or prove it stage).  There's also probably some good old fashioned New England small college elitism too, since Conn may not have the historic prestige academically as some of the other schools in the conference.  It's the youngest school in the conference (only one founded in the 20th century) and it's the most recent to join (if you trace Hamilton back to 1971 as an original member of NESCAC, even if not for soccer).  It also has the smallest endowment (just below Bates, but those two are a significant margin below everyone else) and is the easiest to get into as a school (along with Trinity) based on admission percentages. If anything, there may be some people who grumble a little that Conn has an easier time recruiting because they can dig a bit deeper into the pool, which, of course, ignores that some of the schools in the conference also attract pretty widely because of their reputations, so they aren't exactly hurting.

Given all of that, this seems like a classic case where a coach has made a huge difference in the direction of a program.  I don't have any connection to the school, but I have seen from afar what kind of a recruiter Burk has been over the last few years and he's obviously done well in all aspects of the job.  The question may be whether Conn can hold onto him.  He does have some D1 experience if he wanted to go in that direction and you could see how he could be recruited away for a more well-resourced program if he continues to do well.

[camosfan]

too much is made of polls, at best they are collective guess not scientific prediction.

[Vasoccer757]

They went from 0-14-1 to 8-5-3 in one season.  He had more Ivy wins than Harvard's prior three seasons combined.  How much better could he do???

Strength of schedule should be considered.

That 2019 group had UNC, Duke, Vermont, Providence, New Hampshire, and Boston College in 7 of 9 Non-confernce games

in 2021 of there 9 non-conference games only Vermont and New Hampshire were the holdovers.

With that being said, still a great turn around so far but crushing it is a stretch.

[camosfan]

The guy is a great coach, with the Harvad label I am expecting great things from him, at Tufts he was getting players who could start at elite D1 schools, can only get better.

[Buck O.]

Again, I expect him to do well.  When he was appointed, a prominent poster here didn't think it was a good hire.  I was taking Shapiro's side.  But I would have expected some improvement simply based on regression to the mean and he only has one season of results, so I do think that it's a bit quick to be passing judgment.

[Viking]

Predictions for the NESCAC Season this Fall: 
4. Conn - I think they take a slight step back in the NESCAC standings but still earn an at large come NCAA time. It's hard for a program that just got to the mountain top for time #1 to replicate that a year later - more mouths to feed!

I am not a Conn person, but wow, this is a stunning prediction on so many levels, and the caveat that they'll still earn an at-large bid doesn't dilute the shock. Unless there are some unexpected retention issues that I'm not aware of, Conn's roster loses less going into 2022 than any other NESCAC team except Trinity (and certainly far less than Amherst and Tufts, each of which will lose 5-6 critical starters to graduation, transfer, and such). Also, recent history suggests that maintaining mountaintop status is discouragingly easy at the elite level of D3 men's soccer, which if anything seems to be a dynasty factory -- ugh, NESCAC has had so many repeat tourney champions, repeat regular season champs, and repeat near-misses since the conference was founded in its current form. The "too many mouths to feed" argument doesn't seem to have applied to any of the NESCAC dynasties of the recent past. Finally, man, the eye test! Conn is such a difficult team to play with so much quality and adaptability and depth all over the field and at so many different age levels (including the incoming recruits). And now, on top of all that, they're battle-tested, tournament-tested, and they've shed whatever irrational fear they may have had of the other elite NESCAC programs.

I'm not sure I've ever felt more comfortable picking a team to finish first than I feel about Conn in 2022 (again, unless there are some retention issues I don't know about).

Yo, and if all that wasn't enough, you gave Conn some good bulletin-board material too.

[PaulNewman]

I mostly agree with Viking's take.  It seems like Conn has virtually everyone of import from last year's edition coming back.  Great talent, tough, broke through, and defending champs.  That said, I could see the top 4 finishing in any order, and whoever finishes 4th, assuming they get a bid (and they should unless there's a major upset winner of the conference tourney), will have as good or nearly as good a chance as whoever finishes 1st.  Off the top of my head I can't even recall where Conn finished last year. 

The success and continued strength of NESCAC is daunting for the handful (maybe handful and a half) of non-NESCAC title contenders.  It is amazing that they've won six out of the last seven titles going back to 2014.  Tufts x4, Amherst x1, Conn x1...and of course the only non-NESCAC winner during that span was that upstart Messiah. 

[EnmoreCat]

Predictions for the NESCAC Season this Fall: 
4. Conn - I think they take a slight step back in the NESCAC standings but still earn an at large come NCAA time. It's hard for a program that just got to the mountain top for time #1 to replicate that a year later - more mouths to feed!

I am not a Conn person, but wow, this is a stunning prediction on so many levels, and the caveat that they'll still earn an at-large bid doesn't dilute the shock. Unless there are some unexpected retention issues that I'm not aware of, Conn's roster loses less going into 2022 than any other NESCAC team except Trinity (and certainly far less than Amherst and Tufts, each of which will lose 5-6 critical starters to graduation, transfer, and such). Also, recent history suggests that maintaining mountaintop status is discouragingly easy at the elite level of D3 men's soccer, which if anything seems to be a dynasty factory -- ugh, NESCAC has had so many repeat tourney champions, repeat regular season champs, and repeat near-misses since the conference was founded in its current form. The "too many mouths to feed" argument doesn't seem to have applied to any of the NESCAC dynasties of the recent past. Finally, man, the eye test! Conn is such a difficult team to play with so much quality and adaptability and depth all over the field and at so many different age levels (including the incoming recruits). And now, on top of all that, they're battle-tested, tournament-tested, and they've shed whatever irrational fear they may have had of the other elite NESCAC programs.

I'm not sure I've ever felt more comfortable picking a team to finish first than I feel about Conn in 2022 (again, unless there are some retention issues I don't know about).

Yo, and if all that wasn't enough, you gave Conn some good bulletin-board material too.

And Viking, you have given some to Amherst too, thanks!

[Viking]

Viking, you have given some to Amherst too, thanks!

LOL. What made you think I don't love Amherst this year? I've got the Lord Jeffs picked second in NESCAC and in the NCAA Final Four in my family pool, but whatever you say.

[Brother Flounder]

I mostly agree with Viking's take.  It seems like Conn has virtually everyone of import from last year's edition coming back.  Great talent, tough, broke through, and defending champs.  That said, I could see the top 4 finishing in any order, and whoever finishes 4th, assuming they get a bid (and they should unless there's a major upset winner of the conference tourney), will have as good or nearly as good a chance as whoever finishes 1st.  Off the top of my head I can't even recall where Conn finished last year. 

The success and continued strength of NESCAC is daunting for the handful (maybe handful and a half) of non-NESCAC title contenders.  It is amazing that they've won six out of the last seven titles going back to 2014.  Tufts x4, Amherst x1, Conn x1...and of course the only non-NESCAC winner during that span was that upstart Messiah.

Yes.. I have to agree with Paul Newman on this one...

[Novacat]

I mostly agree with Viking's take.  It seems like Conn has virtually everyone of import from last year's edition coming back.  Great talent, tough, broke through, and defending champs.  That said, I could see the top 4 finishing in any order, and whoever finishes 4th, assuming they get a bid (and they should unless there's a major upset winner of the conference tourney), will have as good or nearly as good a chance as whoever finishes 1st.  Off the top of my head I can't even recall where Conn finished last year. 




I also agree with Viking.  I think that Conn has the best returning talent.  I think the biggest question mark will be how they handle the rep of returning champs.  Will they stay as hungry and disciplined.  We saw with Tufts how hard it was.  Every game you are someone's Super Bowl.  Will the players stay team-focused or chase more individual accolades.  Tufts loses a lot but is also pretty deep and strong in key positions...goalie and D. They need to find some scorers.  Amherst loses GG but are still very deep and athletic.  Style of play is unique and tough to beat but can they find some scorers?  Wesleyan is an up and comer.  Middlebury also returns a lot and are very athletic.  Look out for Trinity who played most game tough last year with 10 or top 11 players as first year players.  Also they need to find some scorers.  Williams is super athletic and strong in the middle. Dare I say it...they need to find some scorers!
The success and continued strength of NESCAC is daunting for the handful (maybe handful and a half) of non-NESCAC title contenders.  It is amazing that they've won six out of the last seven titles going back to 2014.  Tufts x4, Amherst x1, Conn x1...and of course the only non-NESCAC winner during that span was that upstart Messiah.

Yes.. I have to agree with Paul Newman on this one...

[Bucket]

Predictions for the NESCAC Season this Fall: 
4. Conn - I think they take a slight step back in the NESCAC standings but still earn an at large come NCAA time. It's hard for a program that just got to the mountain top for time #1 to replicate that a year later - more mouths to feed!

I am not a Conn person, but wow, this is a stunning prediction on so many levels, and the caveat that they'll still earn an at-large bid doesn't dilute the shock. Unless there are some unexpected retention issues that I'm not aware of, Conn's roster loses less going into 2022 than any other NESCAC team except Trinity (and certainly far less than Amherst and Tufts, each of which will lose 5-6 critical starters to graduation, transfer, and such). Also, recent history suggests that maintaining mountaintop status is discouragingly easy at the elite level of D3 men's soccer, which if anything seems to be a dynasty factory -- ugh, NESCAC has had so many repeat tourney champions, repeat regular season champs, and repeat near-misses since the conference was founded in its current form. The "too many mouths to feed" argument doesn't seem to have applied to any of the NESCAC dynasties of the recent past. Finally, man, the eye test! Conn is such a difficult team to play with so much quality and adaptability and depth all over the field and at so many different age levels (including the incoming recruits). And now, on top of all that, they're battle-tested, tournament-tested, and they've shed whatever irrational fear they may have had of the other elite NESCAC programs.

I'm not sure I've ever felt more comfortable picking a team to finish first than I feel about Conn in 2022 (again, unless there are some retention issues I don't know about).

Yo, and if all that wasn't enough, you gave Conn some good bulletin-board material too.

Middlebury only loses one person out of starting XI—Brandon Reid—and only one (Raffi Barsamian) significant contributor off the bench.