NESCAC

[smoova]

^ Thanks - appreciate the comprehensive response.

[EnmoreCat]

Amherst 4 Trinity 0

A scoreline that really doesn't reflect what in the first half at least, was an even game, where Trinity enjoyed periods of possession.  I felt the 2-0 lead Amherst enjoyed at half-time was flattering, but of course, no one was offering to re-set the game score.  In the second half, Coach Serpone started to rotate and I counted 25 different players eventually used.  The good news for Mammoths supporters is that within the freshman group there are players impacting now, but also some who are on the cusp of doing similar.  Three of the four goals had freshman involvement, I would suspect it's some time since that has been the case for those that wear purple.

I will offer the EnmoreCat NESCAC conference playoff guide at a later date, but did want to congratulate Middlebury on what has been a fine season, so far. 

Foul Count: Amherst 12 Trinity 13 - not consistent with the popular narrative of course

No disclaimer this time, but rest assured it still applies.

[EnmoreCat]

The EnmoreCat 2023 NESCAC Conference Final Guide

I've constructed this table, which aggregates the results from only the games that the top eight teams played against each other.  It's not that much different to the final table, but the order is slightly different and gives a nuanced perspective on performance (whether it's useful or not is another thing).  It's still very tight at the top end:

Middlebury 15 points 14 goals for/5 against
Amherst 12 points 11/8
Connecticut 11 11/9
Tufts 11 8/7
Bowdoin 9 7/4
Wesleyan 6 4/10
Hamilton 5 4/14
Williams 4 3/9 (if my maths is wrong, apologies)

It takes goals to win games, but not conceding does give you a chance too and that's where Bowdoin has an edge, but of course Middlebury has both sides covered, which is probably what you would expect from a team that didn't just lead NESCAC, but has also been consistently at the top end of the rankings for the entire season.  If games only went for 88 minutes, then Amherst would have had an extra win, draw and loss, but those additional two points would still see them behind Midd and that doesn't take into account any of the other games where goals were given up late.  It is however a reminder of how fine the margin can be. 

Last year I nominated Babson as the best team I saw in the flesh on my trip and that didn't do them much good as they bowed out in the first round of the tournament, but of course they did beat the Mammoths this season.  My 2023 selection for best team I saw in the flesh is Midd, by some distance, but I am not expecting that my kiss of death will be as effective this time, but it's a no lose for me nominating them.  When I was thinking about their undefeated season so far, it did take me back to my first season of senior cricket in the early 1980s in Western Australia.  The first grade team at my club went through the home & away part of the season undefeated and were hot favourites to win the pennant.  They lost their semi-final on the first day of a two day game (a bit different to baseball) and their season was over.  Sport knows how to break hearts.

On the basis of the above table, and the full NESCAC one, Amherst is ranked second and whilst the Mammoths' best game might deserve that status, for this correspondent at least, it hasn't been seen enough this season.  It's not giving away state secrets to say that the team has probably passed a bit more this season (again against the popular narrative), with probably not quite the shock & awe that was seen on a regular basis last season.  I do think the team has regularly looked in control in many games, but did find it hard more than once to hold onto a one goal lead.  That feels like it becomes a bit more important when it's play off time and if Amherst can address that, then they will at least go deep in NESCAC.  If they don't...

I certainly wouldn't rule out any of the teams lower down the rankings finding their groove and they have all shown they are capable of getting results (more often than not at Amherst's expense).  It's a reminder of just how even NESCAC is.

Usual disclaimers apply and I am not entertaining any requests for phlegm-related keyboard damage claims. 

[SimpleCoach]

Last year SC aggressively crusaded against Williams a team that only won about 1/2 their games.  This year he has U Chicago in top 15 in a very similar situation with one could argue a weaker schedule.

What up SC?

Thats fair.  And it got me thinking.  So I posted this below last year when someone thought the absence of Williams from my poll was because I didn't like how they played.  Which in part is true.  But -

Williams                           6      1             10             28

Chicago for their part looks like this at season end this year -

Chicago                            7   2   5   26

The difference for me between these two teams? While Chicago doesn't look like last years team, they certainly can win a game.  With Williams I never thought they would "win".

Make sense?

[SimpleCoach]

Usual disclaimers apply and I am not entertaining any requests for phlegm-related keyboard damage claims.

EnmoreCat.... there goes another keyboard.....

SC.

[Newenglander]

To further demonstrate the depth of the conference, Hamilton tied #22 Oneonta last night.....

[College Soccer Observer]

To further demonstrate the depth of the conference, Hamilton tied #22 Oneonta last night.....

NESCAC Non-Conference Record (54 games, Colby vs Coast Guard cancelled)  43 W, 5 L, 6 T

Some of the Maine schools really pad this record against weak instate schools, but I understand the logistics and travel involved, so kudos to Bates for scheduling Emerson and Bowdoin for playing Wheaton.  Colby did schedule Coast Guard, but the game was cancelled.  Conn went a perfect 5-0 outside of NESCAC, including a win over Babson.  Bowdoin was 4-0-1, Colby 4-0, Hamilton 3-0-2, Midd 4-0-1, Tufts 4-0-1, and Williams 5-0.  Wesleyan was the only NESCAC school to lose 2 non-conference games, to East Conn and West Conn.

[camosfan]

Wesleyan was the only NESCAC school to lose 2 non-conference games, to East Conn and West Conn.

Real ironic, because I find them one of the toughest teams in NESCAC, to score against.

[College Soccer Observer]

Wesleyan was the only NESCAC school to lose 2 non-conference games, to East Conn and West Conn.

Real ironic, because I find them one of the toughest teams in NESCAC, to score against.

They are a very hard team to figure out this year.  Their results are all over the map, including ties with Amherst, Conn, and Tufts, but also Colby and Trinity.  They only have 2 league wins (Bates and Williams) but only 3 losses (Bowdoin, Hamilton, Midd).  Most unpredictable team in the league for me.

[Kuiper]

Wesleyan was the only NESCAC school to lose 2 non-conference games, to East Conn and West Conn.

Real ironic, because I find them one of the toughest teams in NESCAC, to score against.

They are a very hard team to figure out this year.  Their results are all over the map, including ties with Amherst, Conn, and Tufts, but also Colby and Trinity.  They only have 2 league wins (Bates and Williams) but only 3 losses (Bowdoin, Hamilton, Midd).  Most unpredictable team in the league for me.

I'm by no means an expert no Wesleyan, but I've caught bits and pieces of a couple of games and most of the second half yesterday v. Conn and my sense has been that they are one of those teams that plays out of the back, does well in the middle third, and runs out of ideas in the final third.  They have .87 goals per game and that includes a game like yesterday where they got an own goal and a PK.  That doesn't indicate bad offense because they had to get in those positions to force action by the Conn defenders, but it never felt like Wesleyan's players had the individual skills to unlock the Conn defense without getting a bit of help.  It may be that in games where they've gotten scored on early, they come out of their shell and leave themselves exposed in the back too.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

Bowdoin 0 -- Tufts 1

Tough loss for Bowdoin, who I thought played well and had several good chances but wasn't able to find the back of the net.  The Tufts goal reminded me of the goal conceded to Amherst a couple of weeks ago, where the initial attacker's shot was deflected, hit the post and bounced directly to another attacker.  A Bowdoin defender slid across the goal last night and very nearly blocked it.  As many have noted, these games are decided by the narrowest of margins.  Credit to Tufts for the road win.  Camosfan must be happy, and I appreciate him not gloating here.

The good news is that the teams play again Saturday and ultimately what will be remembered is who wins Saturday.

[Shooter McGavin]

2nd ranking predictions

Region 1
1. Conn College
2. Middlebury
3. Amherst
4. Tufts
5. Bowdoin
6. Williams
7. W. Conn

Others: Hamilton

[PaulNewman]

YSD, I also thought Bowdoin played well at least the segments I watched and while realizing the Polar Bears had to chase the game after the goal.  Definitely a good win for Tufts but I certainly couldn't say Tufts is the better team.  All these teams look pretty even. I will say that Tufts seems like one of the teams most comfortable with remaining extremely solid and waiting for counter attack opportunities.  CSO noted that Midd will be a tough out in the big tournament, which is definitely true, but also true for at least 4 other Nescacs. That's not even counting Hamilton who has shown they can be a problem too and of course Williams who made an incredible run last year.

A quick plug for Rueda Duran. What an engine that kid has. In terms of overall impact reminds me a little of Yeonas of recent Conn Coll game. Rueda Duran may be a little more of a pit bull with blinders who looks to go 1v3 more frequently than Yeonas...but still, quite a player. Imo Bowdoin needs a third scorer to help out Rueda Duran and Huck... Cabral, Juantorena, etc

[camosfan]

Camosfan must be happy, and I appreciate him not gloating here. While I am happy, no reason to gloat, these teams are pretty even and it could have gone either way. In addition, I am thinking about Saturday and how difficult it will be to beat a team like yours twice.

[northman]

Bowdoin 0 -- Tufts 1

Tough loss for Bowdoin, who I thought played well and had several good chances but wasn't able to find the back of the net.  The Tufts goal reminded me of the goal conceded to Amherst a couple of weeks ago, where the initial attacker's shot was deflected, hit the post and bounced directly to another attacker.  A Bowdoin defender slid across the goal last night and very nearly blocked it.  As many have noted, these games are decided by the narrowest of margins.  Credit to Tufts for the road win.  Camosfan must be happy, and I appreciate him not gloating here.

The good news is that the teams play again Saturday and ultimately what will be remembered is who wins Saturday.

I scrambled back from an event in Portland to catch the last 15 minutes of the first half, which appeared to be relatively even and to lack any drama.  I was already feeling a bit chilled at half time, and said screw it...I'll catch the second half online at home.  By the time I turned the game on, Tufts had already scored...so I can't comment on that.  I will say that Bowdoin dominated the last 30 minutes of the game and did everything except score.  Although stats don't always tell the whole story, they are fairly noticeable in this case.  Shots: Bowdoin 21(5), Tufts 8(3).  Corners: Bowdoin 10, Tufts 3.

One other thing that surprised me:  Bowdoin elected to play this game on their new turf field, which I think is Tufts' preferred surface?

I continue to say that, of all of Bowdoin's NESCAC games I saw, I was most impressed by Conn.  Admittedly, I didn't see Middlebury...and their NESCAC record speaks for itself.

What are people's predictions for the quarterfinal matchups?