NESCAC

[Bucket]

2nd ranking predictions

Region 1
1. Conn College
2. Middlebury
3. Amherst
4. Tufts
5. Bowdoin
6. Williams
7. W. Conn

Others: Hamilton

You expect Conn to jump Middlebury after Panthers go 2-0 against Tufts and Williams and Conn goes 1-0-1 against Bates and Wesleyan?

Um, ok.

[College Soccer Observer]

2nd ranking predictions

Region 1
1. Conn College
2. Middlebury
3. Amherst
4. Tufts
5. Bowdoin
6. Williams
7. W. Conn

Others: Hamilton

Reminder that these rankings will not take yesterday's games into account.  They are based on games through 10/23

[coach analytics]

2nd ranking predictions

Region 1
1. Conn College
2. Middlebury
3. Amherst
4. Tufts
5. Bowdoin
6. Williams
7. W. Conn

Others: Hamilton

Reminder that these rankings will not take yesterday's games into account.  They are based on games through 10/23

Also, what do you mean by "jumping" the first ranking did not have an order to them, rather they were alphabetical.  Middlebury had a great year but they did not play any ranked team outside of NESCAC.  Their RvR is not nearly as impressive as Amherst or Conn... I think Mid will be third.

[Christan Shirk]

REGION I - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 25, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Connecticut College	9-0-4	0.600	3-0-4	10-0-4	Y
2.	Amherst	9-2-3	0.645	5-2-2	9-2-3	Y
3.	Middlebury	10-0-4	0.579	2-0-3	10-0-4	Y
4.	Tufts	9-2-3	0.607	4-2-2	9-2-3	Y
5.	Bowdoin	9-1-4	0.555	1-1-3	9-1-4	Y
6.	Williams	8-4-2	0.588	1-3-1	8-4-2	Y
7.	Hamilton	6-4-4	0.593	0-4-2	6-4-4	Y

[FanofNescac]

So which committee decides on NCAA selections? United Soccer Coaches or D3Soccer.com?

I am not understanding the difference between the regional rankings on both platforms. Why would Midd be #1 on USC but #3 on D3Soccer

[Christan Shirk]

So which committee decides on NCAA selections? United Soccer Coaches or D3Soccer.com?

I am not understanding the difference between the regional rankings on both platforms. Why would Midd be #1 on USC but #3 on D3Soccer

Neither.  The NCAA Regional Rankings and the NCAA Tournament At-Large Selection are done by the NCAA Division III Men's Soccer Committee with the help of their Regional Advisory Committees (RACs).

I suggest reading the following articles on D3soccer.com.  They are a year old so some of the dates and numbers are different for this year, but otherwise they will get you up to speed on the NCAA Regional Rankings and their role and significance.

     D3soccer.com: Coming Wednesday: the rankings that matter

     D3soccer.com: 2022 NCAA Regional Rankings

The United Soccer Coaches (USC) regional polls and national ranking and the now defunct D3soccer.com Top 25 ranking are independent from the NCAA and have no bearing on the NCAA rankings or at-large tournament selections.  They are done to recognize the top teams and promote D-III soccer.

[College Soccer Observer]

Non-Con Games:
Midd:  Mt. St. Mary (346), Norwich (208), Endicott (130), Eastern Nazarene (277), Vassar (68).  To be fair, Vassar and Endicott were supposed to be stronger than they turned out to be.
Conn:  Hartford (262), Salve Regina (182), Babson (44), Western New England (166), Coast Guard (152)
Amherst:  Babson (44), Montclair (12), WPI (96), Manhattanville (220), Yeshiva (271)
Tufts: Babson (44), Emerson (126), Salem (142), Maine Farmington (291), MIT (96)

Note:  Writing this after seeing the rankings.  At some point, the games have to matter.  Midd finished 4 points in front of Conn and 3 points in front of Amherst in the best conference in the country for D3 soccer.  They have not lost a game all season.  If the rankings have Conn in front this week because the Wesleyan game does not count for this week, fair enough.  But at some point, weight should be given to where teams finished in the league table.

[Christan Shirk]

Note:  Writing this after seeing the rankings.  At some point, the games have to matter.  Midd finished 4 points in front of Conn and 3 points in front of Amherst in the best conference in the country for D3 soccer.  They have not lost a game all season.  If the rankings have Conn in front this week because the Wesleyan game does not count for this week, fair enough.  But at some point, weight should be given to where teams finished in the league table.

Conference finish is NOT one of the criteria for the NCAA rankings/selections.  So, no, theoretically it is not intended to factor it, and observation of the rankings and selections for many years indicates that in practice it does not factor in.  It is a team's full body of work, not just conference play, that is used for establishing the data (D-III winning pct., results vs. ranked opponents, strength-of-schedule, overall winning pct., etc.) by which each team is considered.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

The EnmoreCat 2023 NESCAC Conference Final Guide

I've constructed this table, which aggregates the results from only the games that the top eight teams played against each other.  It's not that much different to the final table, but the order is slightly different and gives a nuanced perspective on performance (whether it's useful or not is another thing).  It's still very tight at the top end:

Middlebury 15 points 14 goals for/5 against
Amherst 12 points 11/8
Connecticut 11 11/9
Tufts 11 8/7
Bowdoin 9 7/4
Wesleyan 6 4/10
Hamilton 5 4/14
Williams 4 3/9 (if my math is wrong, apologies)

@Enmorecat, I didn't check your math, but it seems right and this is very interesting.  It is a subset (top 8) of a subset (conference only) so the sample size is small.  But in some ways it is similar to how the NCAA views R v R.  What most jumped out at me is Midd's goal differential margin of 9, which is equal to the aggregate winning margin of Amherst, Conn, Tufts and Bowdoin.  I didn't go back and look at whether that was due to piling on one particular opponent, but i don't recall seeing a Midd result like that.  Obviously we know from experience anything can happen in this conference; we saw Williams go on a crazy NCAA run last year after a not so impressive regular season.

Admitting self interest, I note that Bowdoin's margin of 3 is certainly respectable.  I think the Bowdoin offense is stronger than these numbers suggest, but I hear the feedback from you, PN and CSO.  I was pleasantly surprised that Bowdoin is first in fewest goals conceded in your analysis, particularly considering the very strong year by Midd's Grady.  Alex Ainsworth has had a great year and conceding only 4 goals against this group in his first year of collegiate playing time is exceptional. 

[northman]

Yeah, I continue to maintain that there is little to separate the top 5 NESCAC teams.  Middlebury is the deserved regular season leader.  They have answered the call throughout the season.  But I'm not sure they are quite like last season's U Chicago team, where their superior performance in the NCAA tournament was in little doubt.

It'll be interesting to see if there are any upsets in the NESCAC tournament quarterfinals...

[Freddyfud]

Just read Bates was on lockdown last night and classes cancelled today with the situation in Lewiston.  Can't imagine how awful it could have been if their game against Colby was last night instead of Tuesday.  Thinking about that entire community and hope they find this guy soon.

[camosfan]

Hope the students are safe.

[northman]

Thanks fellow NESCAC posters.  It is a very sad and sobering day here in Maine.  Bates College and Bowdoin College have been locked down today.  Beyond our beloved NESCAC schools, all of the local schools, libraries, and even grocery stores have been closed today throughout an ever widening radius.  My wife works for the town library in Cumberland, which is over 30 miles from the shooting sites.  All of the town facilities in Cumberland and towns beyond have been closed.

I think many of us felt like we were living in a pleasant bubble here in Maine.  By many measures, Maine is the first or second safest state in the union.  Not today.  If it can happen here, it can happen anywhere.  Give your loved ones an extra hug today.  We all need support and reassurance in these moments.

[deutschfan]

God bless all of you in Maine and hopefully they will round up this lunatic before he does more damage than the catastrophic damage he has already inflicted, both physically and psychologically. 

[College Soccer Observer]

Thanks fellow NESCAC posters.  It is a very sad and sobering day here in Maine.  Bates College and Bowdoin College have been locked down today.  Beyond our beloved NESCAC schools, all of the local schools, libraries, and even grocery stores have been closed today throughout an ever widening radius.  My wife works for the town library in Cumberland, which is over 30 miles from the shooting sites.  All of the town facilities in Cumberland and towns beyond have been closed.

I think many of us felt like we were living in a pleasant bubble here in Maine.  By many measures, Maine is the first or second safest state in the union.  Not today.  If it can happen here, it can happen anywhere.  Give your loved ones an extra hug today.  We all need support and reassurance in these moments.

Thinking of all of you in Maine and sending support from Chicago.