NESCAC

[College Soccer Observer]

Middlebury 2 Williams 0

Unlike Tuesday's match at Williams, the Ephs came out on the front foot and applied immediate pressure.  They forced Grady into a save in the first several minutes, which was more than they did on Tuesday.  This was my first time seeing Williams in person (the Tuesday end of league season game is hard for parents who live out of town to get to).  The Ephs have couple of dangerous attackers (#13 Coehlo and #17 Gibson).  Midd struck first on a long throw in that was flicked on by Madden and headed in by Randolph, but Diffley will want that one back as the header went right through his hands after 20 minutes.  The Panthers got a second three minutes later when Chae executed a given and go with Sawin and took the ball inside the penalty area, where he hit a low shot that went between Diffley's legs.  At 2-0, Williams refused to give up and pressed for a goal to cut the deficit, but Grady made a point blank save on a blast from 12 yards near the end of the half.  In the second half, Duggan hit the post for the Panthers, and several other excellent chances were saved by Diffley or went just over the crossbar.  For the first time in a while, there were no upsets in NESCAC Tournment play, and the top four seeds will meet next weekend in Vermont, with Tufts taking on Middlebury at 11am and Amherst playing Conn in the second game.  All four teams should feel good about their chances to make the NCAAs.  Looking forward to a weekend of great soccer.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

So maybe Allen Iverson was wrong about the importance of practice?

Tufts was sharp yesterday and Bowdoin wasn't.  The final score made it look closer than it was, thanks to a late free kick goal by Rueda-Duran.  Bowdoin boarded a bus to Medford late Friday shortly after emerging from two days of lockdown.  Not the best way to lead up to a game.  Tufts played very well yesterday, much better than Tuesday, and that ultimately was the deciding factor.  Tufts' passing and tactics were crisp, reminding me of the famous Tufts teams under Shapiro.  I think Tufts has been somewhat under-looked this year given the undefeated seasons by Midd and Conn and the usual strong performance by Amherst.  I expect the Midd/Tufts rematch will be closer than the game two weeks earlier.

It was a disappointing loss for Bowdoin but I am hopeful their record (ties w/ Midd and Conn, only losses to Amherst and Tufts) will be strong enough for the tournament.  PN, I saw your thoughts in the national thread and hope you are right.

Shoutout to Tufts Athletics for agreeing to host the women's quarterfinal today, which was moved from Bowdoin to a neutral site.  (The Bowdoin women's team defeated conn 1-0 and advanced to the semi-finals next weekend.)

Camosfan, nice to meet you at the game, and congrats on the win.  (And I now know the origin of camos!)

[northman]

That's a thoughtful and objective summary of the game, YSD.  I was able to watch much of the game online, in between doing a couple of other things.

I think most illustrative of the Bowdoin's lack of sharpness were two uncharacteristic defensive errors that led directly to both of Tufts' goals.  On the first one, right back Steinberg lunged in on the Tufts winger, was beaten, and then left in the dust while the winger made an easy crossing pass for a tap-in goal.  On the second, usually reliable left CB Selig passed out of the box right onto the foot of a Tufts attacker, who simply stepped through to set up another easy goal.

The boys simply weren't sharp enough and were punished by a very good team.  As an unabashed homer, I feel like they deserve a ticket to the NCAA tournament...but we'll have to wait and see what the powers that be have to say.

[coach analytics]

That's a thoughtful and objective summary of the game, YSD.  I was able to watch much of the game online, in between doing a couple of other things.

I think most illustrative of the Bowdoin's lack of sharpness were two uncharacteristic defensive errors that led directly to both of Tufts' goals.  On the first one, right back Steinberg lunged in on the Tufts winger, was beaten, and then left in the dust while the winger made an easy crossing pass for a tap-in goal.  On the second, usually reliable left CB Selig passed out of the box right onto the foot of a Tufts attacker, who simply stepped through to set up another easy goal.

The boys simply weren't sharp enough and were punished by a very good team.  As an unabashed homer, I feel like they deserve a ticket to the NCAA tournament...but we'll have to wait and see what the powers that be have to say.

I will send my analysis out later about tournament prospects but my instinct is that Bowdoin is in good shape as long as most lock NCAA teams lime Monclair, Messiah, courtland, F&M etc win their conf tournaments.

Your line of win% (.6875), SOS (about .575) and RvR (1-3-3) is about the same or slightly better than Middlebury 2022 who was the fifth seed in Region 1 and got an at-large bid with a line of (.676, .61, 1-4-3).

Bowdoins out of conference games of St Thomas, Husson and U of So Maine are killing their SOS. Nice for the players to pad their stats in those games but it might cost them a bid.

[College Soccer Observer]

Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents. 

[Kuiper]

Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents.

I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting how different perspectives are about how far things are away from each other in the Northeast than in Region X.  The distance from Bowdoin to Boston for a weekday game is pretty modest compared to some of the distances teams in Region X travel routinely on weekdays.  I always assumed the reason some NESCAC teams schedule weaker non-conference opponents is because they believe they won't need the SoS bump given the NESCAC conference schedule.  After all, Bowdoin's SoS of .555 (as of last Wednesday) would be one of the higher numbers in Region X.

[Bucket]

Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents.

I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting how different perspectives are about how far things are away from each other in the Northeast than in Region X.  The distance from Bowdoin to Boston for a weekday game is pretty modest compared to some of the distances teams in Region X travel routinely on weekdays.  I always assumed the reason some NESCAC teams schedule weaker non-conference opponents is because they believe they won't need the SoS bump given the NESCAC conference schedule. After all, Bowdoin's SoS of .555 (as of last Wednesday) would be one of the higher numbers in Region X.

I'm sure I will get blasted for being elitist, but I can promise you that NESCAC schools do not think about SOS implications when scheduling mid-week out-of-conference games.

The primary considerations are—and always will be—missed class time, time away from campus, and budget.

And yes, I agree that it is ludicrous for (many) schools with billion (!)-dollar endowments to be crying about budgets, but it's a factor when trustees limit endowment draws to fund annual operating costs. At Middlebury, since the start of the pandemic, we have been dealing with 20-50 percent cuts to departmental operating budgets pegged to 2019 levels, this at a time with corresponding inflation pressures. It's a double whammy.

And while I am not privy to the athletics department budget numbers, I feel confident in stating that they have not been exempt and that travel budgets have been impacted, just like everything else.

[paclassic89]

Also, NESCAC teams get the benefit of a conference where 8/11 teams make the playoffs, giving an extra game to boost SOS.  It really should be 6 teams. 

[College Soccer Observer]

NESCAC has two additional factors that complicate things.  First, Middlebury VT to Waterville ME (Colby) is 250 miles as the crow flies.  In terms of travel time, it is almost 6 hours by bus due to the lack of interstates that run east-west in that part of New England.  Second, NESCAC has stringent rules in place for how much class time their athletes can miss.  NESCAC teams are limited to only 15 regular season soccer matches (they start play the Tuesday after Labor Day), and teams always have at least two doubleheader weekends to minimize midweek games.  Midd has played Bowdoin and Bates on the same weekend two years in a row, and this year traveled to Conn and Trinity the same weekend.  There is a reason that NESCAC teams do not travel much outside New England, it is has nothing to do with their self-perception of how strong the conference is.  For midweek games, the goal is to minimize overnight stays and limit missed class time.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents.

I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting how different perspectives are about how far things are away from each other in the Northeast than in Region X.  The distance from Bowdoin to Boston for a weekday game is pretty modest compared to some of the distances teams in Region X travel routinely on weekdays.  I always assumed the reason some NESCAC teams schedule weaker non-conference opponents is because they believe they won't need the SoS bump given the NESCAC conference schedule.  After all, Bowdoin's SoS of .555 (as of last Wednesday) would be one of the higher numbers in Region X.

CSO is right, based on what I have seen and heard.  Normally schools try to schedule home and away, so even if the Maine schools and Midd were willing to travel more they need to find a dance partner or otherwise just accept playing far away non-conference road games.  SOS for the more conveniently located NESCAC schools are virtually always stronger.  It isn't about padding stats or feeling like just enough should be ok.  I suspect region X has a higher willingness to travel because it is so big, so long distance travel is a necessity.  In New England, most teams can find high quality competition at a short distance so they aren't willing to agree to a home/away series involving more extensive travel (in relative terms).  There is also a strong emphasis on academics at the NESCACs that probably also affects willingness to travel. 

[College Soccer Observer]

Also, NESCAC teams get the benefit of a conference where 8/11 teams make the playoffs, giving an extra game to boost SOS.  It really should be 6 teams.

Any conference is free to design their conference tournament however they choose to do so.  For the NESCAC, being limited to 15 regular season matches, giving 8 of the 11 a tournament match does not seem to be a bad thing.  Also, the relative parity of the league means that frequently the lower seeds are capable of making a run.  This season was unusual in that the top 4 seed all won their matches.  In 2022, the 8 seed Conn got to the championship game.  In 2021, the 7 seed Colby advanced past Amherst.
In 2019, Middlebury got to the championship game as a 6 seed.  In 2018, the 6, 7, and 8 seeds all advanced and the 8 seed Colby beat the 6 seed Williams in the final.  Leagues are free to award their automatic bid however they want.  NESCAC and most others choose to do a conference tournament.  For NESCAC, I do not think it gives that much of a SOS boost, but it does give a lower seed a chance to snag the automatic bid or to get a few more quality wins that might allow them to sneak in.

[paclassic89]

Also, NESCAC teams get the benefit of a conference where 8/11 teams make the playoffs, giving an extra game to boost SOS.  It really should be 6 teams.

Any conference is free to design their conference tournament however they choose to do so.   Leagues are free to award their automatic bid however they want. 

Wow, thanks!  Didn't know that...

[coach analytics]

guys - I hear you about structural advantages due to location but I would point out that Amherst drove almost 4 hours for a Sunday late afternoon game vs national power Montclair State.  Amherst is the master at making sure their out of conference schedule is world class so they can host NCAA weekends as often as possible.

Bowdoin, seems like there are some Boston-based teams in LEC that are way better alternatives.

Middlebury is a bit more challenging but why not teams like Oneonta, ST L etc.

Also, beating a team 11-1 where your starting players play 60% of the game and score 7 goals seems like a "run up the score/pad your stats" strategy to me.

[College Soccer Observer]

If you are referencing the Mt. St. Mary's game, the prior year the score of that game was 1-0.  This was the perfect storm of Midd being much better than last year and Mt. St. Mary's being much worse.

[PaulNewman]

Bucket, it's not the elitism, it's the double elitism...not only are we far superior to everyone else but we also demonstrate that superiority even more because of all the restrictions and barriers caused at least in part by our....yep, you guessed it, our superiority.

I do think Midd and the Maine schools have a distinct disadvantage because of geography....although I'm a little more sympathetic with the Maine group.  There's only so many Nescacs Babson can play...or Brandeis...or Wheaton MIT, etc.

I would think if Midd can travel 4 hours to Eastern Naz they could get to Plattsburgh, RPI, Union, Skidmore, and couple more Sunyacs...and yes, they played Vassar.

Obviously the Nescacs are not the only ultra serious academic schools... certainly not any more serious than Hopkins, Haverford, Swat, the other UAAs, Carleton, Macalester, W&L, and yes, Colorado Coll...

One might argue that NESCAC actually values athletics far more and has a higher percentage of athletes in the student body than some of the above.

And being an ultra serious academic school can both be a boon to recruiting and a barrier.