NESCAC

[Newenglander]

REGION I - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 01, 2023

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	Connecticut College	10-0-5	0.588	4-0-4	11-0-5	1
2.	Middlebury	12-0-4	0.581	4-0-3	12-0-4	3
3.	Amherst	11-2-3	0.623	5-2-2	11-2-3	2
4.	Tufts	11-2-3	0.605	6-2-2	11-2-3	4
5.	Bowdoin	9-3-4	0.572	1-3-4	9-3-4	5
6.	Williams	8-6-2	0.609	2-5-1	8-6-2	6
7.	St. Joseph (Conn.)	13-1-3	0.519	--	13-1-3	--

This is really interesting set of rankings and probably the closest 1-4 I can recall. I find it surprising that Conn with two fewer wins gets the nod over Midd on the back of a .07 higher  SOS. I think all 4 teams get in and ultimately whoever wins the weekend may end up with the 1 seed.

Conn was 11-0-5 in all games - not sure why there is a discrepancy

[d4_Pace]

[/quote] Conn was 11-0-5 in all games - not sure why there is a discrepancy
[/quote]

I imagine it has something to do with Hartford transitioning from D1. So since they aren't eligible for the tournament maybe that game doesn't count as part of the DIII record. Someone else would have to weigh in on the exact specifics but thats the only thing I can think of.

[coach analytics]

Coach Analytics - appreciate your effort here.

How did the Oscar's snub DiCaprio for all those years? How did Jurgen Klinsmann leave Donovan home in 2014? How the heck are they keeping Barry Bonds out of Cooperstown. Like the rest of you, these are the questions I ask myself each night before bed. All of these snubs, though egregious, do not hold a candle to the Jordan Saint Louis snub of 2023.

Quick player comparison. Saint Louis had 8 goals and 4 assists. Tufts forward, Mikey Brady, who is sitting pretty at #2 on the list only recorded 4 goals and 2 assists. After removing non-conference stats, the two are level on goals and Saint Louis has the edge on assists, yet he doesn't even make the list.

Gents--the young man captained his team to an undefeated season. He had 8 goals and 8 assists. He averaged 72 min/game compared to Brady's 43. He went a perfect 5-5 from the penalty spot including game winner's against Williams and Endicott and two from close games with Tufts and Bowdoin. Are we really gonna sit here and let Coach A fool us into believing this nonsense? That penalties aren't goals? That Colby, Bates, Trinity and every non-nescac team spent the last 3 months gleefully handing out goals to anyone with teeth?

NESCAC Season in Review? More like NESCAC Non-Penalty Stats from 7 Games in Review.

Signing off for a while, gonna go grind my teeth.

I appreciate your passion for your team and its captain, but I do not think all goals are created equally.  This is an all NESCAC nomination so only perfomance in conference matters.  I just so happen to think a player like Randoph was more impactful for his team and their results than JSL, who is a fine fine player and likely all NESCAC and all Region because coaches just look at stats.  I look at production that is most impactful. 6 goals and assists in early season blow outs don't mean much to me. As a very specific example, Randolphs goal and assist against Tufts to me is far superior than a converted PK on a play the STL had little to do with (in addition to a questionable call, according to your own former coach announcer).

But this is what makes sports debate...debate.

[camosfan]

I don't see him getting that (POY), the goalkeeper would be my choice.

[FanofNescac]

#1 Middlebury vs. #4 Tufts –

Midd hosts the weekend after a flawless regular season. Congrats to Midd and their supporters. Midd's stellar defense and midfield allow their offensive players to play freely and creatively. You can see this in Midd's second goal vs Williams in which #14 and #6 had a great combination on the top of the box. This creativity is new for Midd (at least in the past 5 seasons). #26 Randolph is underrated and is a crafty player. He's only a sophomore and is an integral part of the team. #23 Saint Louis is having a great season despite what others have said. He is the best set-piece taker in the conference, and maybe the best dribbler. I am curious to see his leadership in difficult moments. They have yet to have a setback, and watching the games you can visibly see his frustration with his teammates when they don't give him a good pass. It's a minor detail, but important in the playoffs. The defense + Grady have been lights out so if that continues good things will happen.

Tufts goes into this game after two consecutive impressive wins vs Bowdoin. That's a great sign for Jumbos fans after the loss to Midd. It's difficult to understand Tufts playing style because they have a mix of ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession oriented (this could be good). Feigin and Traynor are talented players who lead the Jumbos offensively, paired with experienced midfield and defensive players like Gerkin, Clivio, Campbell. Might be wrong, but I believe Yanez takes their set pieces and they are good. The midfield is scrappy and battles the whole game. Brady is the lone striker and is going to need to be at his best to help the Jumbos Saturday.

Prediction: This is a rematch of the 2021 NESCAC Semi-Final in which freshman Feigin scored the game-winner. I have no doubt Middlebury is the better team overall, but the better team doesn't always win. In order for the Jumbos to win, Clivio will need to have his best performance of the season. Feigin and Traynor will need to cause chaos. The Jumbos roster has tons of experienced players who have played in huge games throughout their careers. If the Jumbos can get to halftime 0-0, I like their chances. Tufts 1-0.

[PaulNewman]

FanofNescac, no prediction from me but I loved how you captured the Tufts playing style which for me holds for the entire Tufts run since 2014...."ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession-oriented."

Helps explain why they can play pretty much straight up with top level possession teams while never being intimidated or bullied at all versus Amherst, Rowan, Montclair, etc.

[Newenglander]

FanofNescac, no prediction from me but I loved how you captured the Tufts playing style which for me holds for the entire Tufts run since 2014...."ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession-oriented."

Helps explain why they can play pretty much straight up with top level possession teams while never being intimidated or bullied at all versus Amherst, Rowan, Montclair, etc.

I feel like that description holds for at least half the NESCAC

[FanofNescac]

#2 Amherst vs. #3 Connecticut

Amherst comes into this game with two losses, both heartbreaking to Babson/Conn. Outside of that, they have played consistently well and go into this weekend as the defending champion. Amherst has maintained their relentlessness year after year defensively and are experts at making the opponent uncomfortable. They are anchored by Kalinauskas who leads the team in minutes played. Interesting but Clark-Eden didn't play in the regular season game, and he brings tons of energy and skill defensively. Amherst uses a mix of players in the midfield, but none are afraid to get into a tackle and press until they are exhausted (most noteworthy being Ten-Cate, but Murphy too). Up front, Ada leads the team, but freshman Nuhu has been outstanding. The most elusive player is Cubeddu, he will need to be at his best.

Conn finishes undefeated as well, but with more ties than Middlebury. A great accomplishment for the Camels and their supporters. Conn has a deep roster and Coach Burk rotates tons of players into the mix. Unclear if Kelesoglu is healthy, but he didn't appear versus Wesleyan. The backline has been fairly consistent with Cerezo and Miles. The midfield changes, but #35 Pigola works extremely hard and presses like a maniac. The 3 key players offensively from the games I've seen are #13 Scoffone, #17Creus, and #33 Spatz. Spatz scored 2 against Hamilton and Creus and Scoffone share the rest. Conn subs a lot, but #14 Mpiana has tons of skill. I know @PaulNewman is a fan of #8 Jaran, but he has not appeared in a match for several games now.

Prediction: These teams are beginning to create a rivalry if it hasn't already been created. Amherst defeated Conn last year in the NESCAC final, Conn defeated Amherst in a National Final the year before that (Both OT). This season the game ended 3-2 in Conn's favor, and I doubt Serpone has ever lost to the same team twice in one season.  I go back and forth on this matchup, but all I know is that it won't be a scoreless game. Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets, and both are super talented offensively. The Mammoths are going to bring 100% intensity right away, and if Conn wants to win, they will need to be equally hungry, or the Mammoths will score early. I predict 1-1, Conn advances on penalties.

[PaulNewman]

FanofNescac, no prediction from me but I loved how you captured the Tufts playing style which for me holds for the entire Tufts run since 2014...."ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession-oriented."

Helps explain why they can play pretty much straight up with top level possession teams while never being intimidated or bullied at all versus Amherst, Rowan, Montclair, etc.

I feel like that description holds for at least half the NESCAC

Maybe but I don't think anyone else does the combo as seamlessly and effectively as Tufts ..who for me are the exemplar for that style.

Put another way...imo Tufts is the best NESCAC at dealing with and pretty much ignoring the Amherst industrial complex.

[northman]

That may be true in general...but this season I think Midd is pretty well equipped to deal with Amherst, but physically and mentally.

[northman]

Meant BOTH physically and mentally...

[d4_Pace]

Prediction: These teams are beginning to create a rivalry if it hasn't already been created. Amherst defeated Conn last year in the NESCAC final, Conn defeated Amherst in a National Final the year before that (Both OT). This season the game ended 3-2 in Conn's favor, and I doubt Serpone has ever lost to the same team twice in one season.  I go back and forth on this matchup, but all I know is that it won't be a scoreless game. Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets, and both are super talented offensively. The Mammoths are going to bring 100% intensity right away, and if Conn wants to win, they will need to be equally hungry, or the Mammoths will score early. I predict 1-1, Conn advances on penalties.

I can think of a team that has beat Amherst twice in a season

[d4_Pace]

FanofNescac, no prediction from me but I loved how you captured the Tufts playing style which for me holds for the entire Tufts run since 2014...."ball-oriented players while also bruisers who are less possession-oriented."

Helps explain why they can play pretty much straight up with top level possession teams while never being intimidated or bullied at all versus Amherst, Rowan, Montclair, etc.

I feel like that description holds for at least half the NESCAC

Maybe but I don't think anyone else does the combo as seamlessly and effectively as Tufts ..who for me are the exemplar for that style.

Put another way...imo Tufts is the best NESCAC at dealing with and pretty much ignoring the Amherst industrial complex.

I do think this is a very real thing, and a good example of the psychological example you always talk about. An underrated win in Tufts rise was the 3-0 win over Amherst in 2016. We'd already won a national title but it had still not beaten Amherst under shapiro and they were coming off a title of their own. At that point the rivalry could have really gone either way, but this win served as a launching point. I remember alumni who never beat Amherst coming into the locker room after the game on the verge of tears they were so happy. This game eliminated once and for all the psychological edge Amherst had built up over years.   

[d4_Pace]

Obviously winning a NESCAC title is a huge accomplishment worth celebrating. But I think even more important is going to be home field advantage for the NCAA tournament. In all likelihood two of these teams are going to run into each other in a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 matchup.  Playing at Amherst is a different animal when they can running down their hill from the locker room yelling like braveheart and then play on their crappy field that slows the ball down to a crawl and helps generate the chaotic bounces they thrive on.

Middlebury's field is significantly larger than other field in the NESCAC in a way that has a material effect on the game by making it more difficult to press and generate consistent pressure. 

Conn's field is actually just an embarrassment. For a team that has had such success, tries to actually play the ball on the ground, and doesn't have a football team it makes no sense that they haven't upgraded their field. That being said the have the best crowd in the NESCAC and its the one place that generately a legitamtely intimidating atmosphere. 

I would say Tufts field is the most neutral of all the above as a new Turf field with standard dimensions, obviously playing at home and staying part of the routine is an advantage, that being said the program has arguably been more successful on the road in the tourney versus at home.

[Bucket]

Obviously winning a NESCAC title is a huge accomplishment worth celebrating. But I think even more important is going to be home field advantage for the NCAA tournament. In all likelihood two of these teams are going to run into each other in a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 matchup.  Playing at Amherst is a different animal when they can running down their hill from the locker room yelling like braveheart and then play on their crappy field that slows the ball down to a crawl and helps generate the chaotic bounces they thrive on.

Middlebury's field is significantly larger than other field in the NESCAC in a way that has a material effect on the game by making it more difficult to press and generate consistent pressure. 

Conn's field is actually just an embarrassment. For a team that has had such success, tries to actually play the ball on the ground, and doesn't have a football team it makes no sense that they haven't upgraded their field. That being said the have the best crowd in the NESCAC and its the one place that generately a legitamtely intimidating atmosphere. 

I would say Tufts field is the most neutral of all the above as a new Turf field with standard dimensions, obviously playing at home and staying part of the routine is an advantage, that being said the program has arguably been more successful on the road in the tourney versus at home.

Nearly spit out my afternoon coffee at the description of playing at Amherst. So funny. And accurate.

So looking forward to the games this weekend.