NESCAC

[Freddyfud]

Foul Count: Amherst 12 Tufts 14

Is this the 1st time this year the mammoths have been out-fouled?
 

One rare occurrence coinciding with another one?  Do you believe in the supernatural? 

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/comet-tonight-how-to-watch-supermoon-massachusetts/

[nescac1]

It's no shock considering how dominant NESCAC has been in recent NCAA tourneys, but still pretty wild to see based on this purely statistical formula that three of the top four, and five of the top eight, teams nationally are from NESCAC:

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39373

[Kuiper]

It's no shock considering how dominant NESCAC has been in recent NCAA tourneys, but still pretty wild to see based on this purely statistical formula that three of the top four, and five of the top eight, teams nationally are from NESCAC:

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39373

I agree that it shouldn't shock anyone to see that those are some of the top ranked teams given the NESCAC's history of success, but is it because of past results from the perspective of the formula inputs?  I could be wrong, but I don't think it's like Massey where a few years past results are included as a part of the algorithm to a declining degree. 

I suspect that because NESCAC teams simply don't schedule a lot of non-conference opponents, but they tend to beat most of them and they schedule just enough good non-conference opponents (e.g., Babson, Cortland, Oneonta), that most of their teams are pretty highly ranked early on.  Because they start conference play long before most other conferences, that means that in these first few NPI rankings, they have great SoS from playing each other and great Quality Win Bonuses because so many of their teams start in the top 50. 

For example, Hamilton is #24 in NPI despite having a record of 5-4-3, which is probably the worst record among the top 50 teams.  I think you have to go to Christopher Newport at #61 to find a team with a % record barely over .500.  Hamilton also has only 1 win in the NESCAC, but that win against Williams is huge because Williams is #6 after beating Amherst and Cortland.  Plus, Hamilton's loss against Oswego State isn't horrible since they are #79 and they have tied Bowdoin, which is #40 and Conn College, which is #8 (and has a tie against #3 Tufts, which gets them half a QWB I think) and Oneonta, which is #45.

The key is that most NESCAC teams start out winning early, with a few of them beating high NPI teams, and they quickly play each other.  Winning early matters a lot for these early rankings, and then SoS and QWB take over soon after.  It's why Adrian was #18 in the first NPI ranking on 10/6 - they were undefeated even though they had played an exclusively marshmallow-soft schedule.  They dropped to #32 in the 10/13 ranking because they tied Olivet and Albion, and beat Kalamazoo.  Not horrible results for them, but they weren't playing teams that had started winning early (or teams that had started playing teams that won early).  You can't stay high, even if you are still winning or tying, if your opponents remain low SoS teams and you get no QWB points. 

The men's soccer committee has given so much weight to QWB (more than any other sport as I recall), that it actually reinforced the strong conference advantage, at least early on.  Those advantages will lessen as teams stop winning.  So, Hamilton might not suffer too badly if it loses to Amherst, but Utica and Trinity will drag down its SoS (since they won't have the 10 wins to drop any "bad wins") and won't provide any QWB, making it more important that they qualify for the NESCAC tournament and get some more points there.

There are probably some lessons here for non-conference scheduling from a league, not just team, perspective, but I would like to see more results to get a better sense of how things shakeout.  I wonder if something like the old BIG10-ACC basketball scheduling agreements will pop up to allow leagues to ensure that their teams will have enough high SoS to schedule cupcakes the rest of their non-conference games and maximize their high NPI teams.

[eaglesoccerdad]

a better example is Wesleyen (5-3-3) who is 18th with a tie v Williams & Babson and one win over a quality opponent in Hamilton

[camosfan]

game could have gone either way, Amherst had two big misses.

[boomer]

Tufts-Midd finishes 0-0 in Medford, probably about the right result tbh

[EnmoreCat]

Amherst 2   Hamilton 1

Compared to the midweek fixture, today's game was a much more open affair in the first half, in what was a delightful looking afternoon in Clinton.    Hamilton did look dangerous delivering the ball into the box, but their incursions were successfully dealt with.  It was similar for Amherst and in the 25th minute there was a nice chain of passes that led to the game's first goal, dispatched by one of the very hard-working seniors.  A defensive lapse not long after that saw Amherst have a great chance to make it 2-0, but the Continentals keeper did well.  The Mammoths grew in confidence and started to push the white shirts back and the half time score felt fair on balance.

At the start of the second half, Amherst had a couple of half chances, but then the game became a scrappy affair, which probably suited the Mammoths and it wasn't until the final ten minutes that the action really started.  In the 81st minute, Hamilton were awarded a penalty after what initially appeared a fairly innocuous situation suddenly becoming something more serious.  It was a tough break as the Continental threat had been well contained all day, but of course, is the potential peril associated with sitting on a 1-0 lead. 

Amherst came back hard and with just five minutes to go, a second phase ball to the far post was skilfully finished by one of the Mammoths captains and in the end 2-1 felt to be about the right result.  For those with purple in their hearts it's another occasion where they have watched the team get a goal when they needed it and of course, was most welcome.  We would also take being a little further in front to avoid that particular stress.

Foul Count: Amherst 11 Hamilton 10

[SimpleCoach]

Tufts-Midd finishes 0-0 in Medford, probably about the right result tbh

I don't even think 1-1 would have been a fair result.  0-0 is perfect.

SC.

[LibbyMoore]

Is that Tuftshate or Middhate? Or just a bad game? Looks like the ref had a severe aversion to pens but not cards.

[Middfan]

Yes, that is spot on.  This ref was not going to call any defensive fouls in the box.  At least 3 could have been fairly called.  The yellows were appropriate.

[maineman]

Is this crazy talk or could the NESCAC get five teams in the NCAAs?

[College Soccer Observer]

I think 4 or 5 is always the expectation.

[maineman]

Is part of the difference no more OT?  In years past, there were fewer ties so NESCAC  play would eliminate more NESCAC teams from NCAA consideration by defeating each other.  Now the upper echelon off NESCAC is highly likely to tie each other leaving teams with far fewer losses.

[flyingdutchman]

Based on the NPI rankings—and I know it's still early—I would expect the five top-10 teams, Tufts, Middlebury, Amherst, Williams, and Conn College, to be almost certain bids for the tournament. With Wesleyan ranked #20, Bowdoin at #34, and Hamilton at #36, it's not out of the question that we could see a potential sixth or even seventh NESCAC team make it. I understand that some conferences, like the UAA, haven't played many conference games yet, so their SOS will improve as they play each other. These are the remaining games for those three teams.

Wesleyan:
Eastern Conn St - Win
Colby - Win
Conn College - believe a tie or win will help them stay where they are but a loss will drop them.

Hamilton:
Utica - Win
Trinity - Win

Bowdoin:
Amherst - Draw/Loss
Tufts - Draw/Loss

Based on these last remaining games, Bowdoin has a chance to pick up some quality ranked results vs Amherst and Tufts that could sneak them into the tournament. However, it will be very difficult to get results away at Amherst and Tufts. Looks like Bowdoin will be playing for their season these next two games. Hamilton has two easy remaining games that will certainly help their win percentage but not SOS. Hamilton will likely need to get a result or two in the NESCAC tournament in order to get into the Big Dance. Wesleyan is in a similar position to Hamilton where I think they might need a draw or win in the NESCAC quarterfinals (likely against Midd or Amherst). A win against Conn in their final game of the season would certainly help their case and I don't think a draw would hurt them.

[rdanie03]

Based on the current NPI rankings, it seems like the top 5 are guarantees, with anyone else who gets an upset and gets to the 2nd weekend of the tourney likely to also snag an autobid