WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[RogK]

bblover, to your optimistic words for North Park, add that, next season, they should see the return of Kamauria Acree, 2nd team all-CCIW as a freshman last season.

[Hoosier Titan]

Congratulations to Stacey Arlis on being named CCIW Player of the Week!

[RogK]

bblover, I was re-reading your recent post and the phrase "the power of the 3-point shot as an equalizer" catches my curiosity.
Can you explain more of what you mean by that? How do three pointers fit into your general basketball philosophy? Also, how much different do you see D3 basketball from D1 from NBA?
I think it's a different game, in that what works at D3 may not work in D1 or vice versa, just because of the bigger, more talented players in D1.
Anyone else should join in, if this is an interesting topic.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Perhaps bblover had more than this in mind, but if a team gets hot from trey-land, they can score a bunch in a hurry, and a team can upset a 'better' team.

In IWU's only conference loss, Carthage went 9 of 14 from downtown (over 64%, the points equivalent of shooting almost 97% from 2-point range)!

[bblover]

The distance for the 3 in today's woman's game seems way to close. I like the 3; it opens up the game, but it needs to be moved back. Too easy. It will happen -- just a matter of when. The 3 makes it easier for upsets if the underdog gets hot.

[RogK]

Is an upset more legitimate if it is achieved via 2FGs and FTs?

[bblover]

Roger: I am not sure about that one. I do not think 3s change the expected result; they just increase the standard deviation around the mean of that result. Thus, the chance of one major upset may be a bit higher than otherwise.

Maybe, the 3 just gives the underdog a feeling that they have some chance of winning; that feeling is critical if a big upset is going to occur. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Is an upset more legitimate if it is achieved via 2FGs and FTs?

Not sure 'legitimate' is the right term.  But I think the 3 makes an upset more likely.

As bblover noted (saw the post just before I hit 'post'), the 3 does not give either team an advantage, a priori, but it does increase the variability of outcomes, which is a plus for the underdog.

[RogK]

It is more difficult to sit on a lead, compared to the old days of no 3 pointer.
The 3 pointer does give a trailing team the opportunity to catch up quicker than if they had to score solely via 2FGs and FTs. Quicker for two reasons : fewer possessions are needed; plus, a three can often (not always) be shot sooner within a possession than can a higher percentage 2FG attempt.
For those same reasons, though, a good team that is also a good 3-shooting team can expand a lead more quickly.
As for the 3 point line, I think it's at a good distance now. Very few players can make more than about 1/3 of their threes, which is equal to 50 pct 2FG shooting. Plus, with 2FG shooting, you get some "and ones." At the line's current distance, very few coaches are confident enough in their long-range shooters to rely on threes late in a tight game.
Even a team that shoots a massive quantity of threes (53/g)
http://web.olivet.edu/sports/basketball/women/stats/2010/teamcume.htm
gets over 57 pct of its scoring from 2FGs and FTs.
So, I think there's a good balance the way things are.

[RogK]

On another topic, am I correct in assuming that the other 7 CCIW teams have decided that containing Elise Wildman is the absolute defensive priority when facing Millikin? She hasn't "gone off" for 30 or 35 as much this season compared to earlier. I don't think it's any reduction in her abilities; in fact, she is certainly among the best players in the league.
I see it as a sign of her excellence that opponents have to create their defensive strategies with her foremost in mind. Does anyone else see it this way?
Is Stacey Arlis now in that same category?

[Mr. Ypsi]

^^I doubt it with Stacey Arliss.  I'm not at all saying Elise Wildman is a one-woman team, but it is more a Lyndsie Long situation.  With the Titans, if you focus too much on Arliss, you'll get killed by Nikki Preston, or Hope Schulte, or Olivia Lett, or ...

[Gregory Sager]

Elmhurst losing to NP was not a huge surprise. An undermanned NP team came pretty close to upsetting Elmhurst at Elmhurst a few weeks ago. At the same time, after losing to Augustana at home recently, Elmhurst was a long shot, at best, to make the playoffs. Losing by 25 points, however, was a shock. Elmhurst has looked very good a couple times this season, but it also has looked very bad a number of times. It never seemed to find a good consistent level. To NP's credit, they showed some pretty potent outside weapons -- watch out next season.

As hot as NPU was on Saturday, it wasn't as though the outside game was the team's only option. Although NPU's leading scorer, Roxie Jones, had an off game, center Lyndsey Thompson made some nice shots in the vicinity of the basket.

[BleedBlue4Life]

In response to RogK's question about Wildman, it does appear teams are committed to double and triple teaming her and defending her very physically whenever possible.  With the recent struggles MU has had from the outside, I think teams are sagging their defense into the post even more.

[iwu70]

My congrats to Stacey Arlis on CCIW Player of the Week.  Greatly deserved.  As you know from my earlier posts, I'm a big fan of Ms. Arlis and her importance to the overall Titan effort and success this year.  Remember when we debated how the Titans were going to replace the brilliance of Christina Solari?  Well, Stacey has given us the answer.  The Titans can really go far this year with tough defense, good rebounding and overall team play.  I still feel the perimeter shooting is weaker than before and needs attention.  It is time for the seniors to really step up and put their imprint on this great run of the past several years of Titan women's basketball.  Keep it rolling Titans.   We are all behind you and wish you all the best for the CCIW tournament and, hopefully, a long run in the DIII dance.  Shirk Center awaits you. 

[thunder38]

Unlike the men's side it looks like the CCIW tournament field is set except for some possible seeding drama.

IWU- win one of last three against bottom three in conference to lock up #1 (NCC, NPU, AU)
Wheaton- win one of two this week to lock up #2 (MU, EC)
Millikin- must finish 2-1 including win over Carthage to clinch #3 (WC,CC,EC)
Carthage- win Saturday clinches #3; loss Saturday keeps them at #4

Elmhurst- could set up a potential tie breaker with MU with wins over WC and MU coupled with 0-3 finish for MU; MU wins tiebreaker due to season sweep over NPU (EC 1-1 vs. NPU)

Therefore:
Here are the tournament pairings if Millikin knocks off Carthage (and beats WC and EC)
#1 IWU vs. #4 Carthage
Wheaton vs. Millikin-seeding depending on finishes for both teams

If Carthage defeats Millikin
#1 IWU vs. #4 Millikin
#2 Wheaton vs. #3 Carthage