WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[thunder38]

Seems like King Arena is the place to be on Satudays anymore if you're looking for good basketball.  Another overtime game and another Thunder victory.  Wheaton struggled for a lot of the second half after really running the game for the first half and found themselves down 53-47 with about three minutes left before running off an 8-0 run to take a two point lead with 55 seconds left.  Elmhurst tied and Wheaton missed a pair of shots at the end of regulation to send it to overtime.

Elmhurst looked to be in charge of the overtime up 59-55 before Laura Karsten continued her fine night (20 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 7 steals) with a steal and breakaway lay-up and a nice pass to Brooke Olson (19 points) to tie the game.  The game went back and forth and Megan Ney had a point blank chance in the final second that went half way down and back out and the Thunder were able to hold on.

Nice to see Meghan Merklein return and have a good night for the Bluejays, who owned the post but couldn't control the Thunder guards.

Sets up a big game in Kenosha on Wednesday where a Thunder victory would almost all but wrap up an IWU conference title.

[RogK]

Augie got its second conference win, 67-55, at the expense of no-luck North Central. Molly Etheridge topped all with 19 pts.
I strayed off the NCAA farm and saw a 111-82 NAIA women's game (72-34 at half).

[iwu70]

IWU in control early over NPU, then cruised to a 72-58 win.  Run and jump, and an up-tempo first 6-8 minutes basically put this game away very early. IWU's long bench on display as well.  Early on, Titans shot about 70%.  Amazingly good out-of-the gate game for the Titan starters.  Fun to watch, up and down, with a great flow and very efficient scoring. 

Good line for Olivia:  27 pts., 6 RBs, 4 assists, and 4 steals, including some great passing, running the floor, shoring up the back of the press, and one truly beautiful behind-the-back pass to a teammate for an easy lay-up off the break. 

Gardner with 11, Bilek a very good game with 9 pts. and 8 RBs.

Sarah Peterson for NP had 11 and 13 boards, but Titans overall had a big surplus on the rebounding line.

All Titans will be pulling for Wheaton up at Carthage on Wednesday, then the Titans invade Kenosha the following weekend.  Would love to see the Titans get to 20 wins, winning out in the regular season.

Big success for Pink Zone night at the Shirk, with a bigger crowd for the women's game than for the men's game.  Great work by all those involved, and a very meaningful and touching speech by Coach Mia Smith during the half-time ceremonies to honor the survivors and to remember those lost to breast cancer.  Proud of all the IWU players, coaches and fans for turning out so well and being so generous for this good cause, all in support of the local Cancer Center, where one of our IWU alums is now Executive Director, too!  Same Center that treated Minor Myers, jr. and now Coach Smith. 

IWU women @Shirk, hosting NCC on Wednesday.  Big game Tuesday as IWU men host NCC, @ Shirk too.

IWU70

[iwu70]

Congrats, kudos to Diana Jacklin, CCIW Player of the Week.

Big games upcoming -- WC vs. CC, and IWU @Carthage. 

IWU70

[RogK]

My congratulations to Diana, too!
Incidentally, Wheaton's win (their 7th in CCIW play) eliminated Augie and North Park (8 losses each). Only 5 teams remain in contention for the 4 playoff spots.

[Mr. Ypsi]

New poll is out: IWU re-enters top 25, but barely.  They are 25th, 32 points behind #24 and 82 points behind #22!  Carthage is 26th, but 29 points behind the Titans.  No other conference teams received votes.

[iwu70]

Should be a great game IWU @Carthage next weekend.  Another Lett-Jacklin matchup (though all the other players often determine the outcome).  We can expect great games from Jacklin and Lett in such bigtime games.  Hope WC can put another loss on Carthage on Wednesday this week.

Looks good for CCIW getting two teams in the tourney this year, but still alot of meaningful games to go.  As mentioned earlier, would love to see the Titans get to 20 wins in the regular season, win out, and host the CCIW Tournament @ The Shirk.

IWU70 

[RogK]

Here's something I'd like feedback on:
Over the last season or two, I've mentally tinkered with a formula applicable for a team trailing in the 4th quarter, perhaps in the range of 5 to 10 minutes to go. Add the number of remaining minutes to your opponent's score, with the result being the score you should aim for. For example, if team A is leading team B 50-38 with 8:00 left, add 8 to the 50, meaning that team A is likely going to score at least 58 in the game. This means that team B needs to score at least 20 in those 8 minutes in order to catch up (20 pts in 8:00 is a 100 pts/game rate, so you have to up the tempo). This is based on the fairly safe assumption that team A is going to average a point per minute, something even the most awful offense should do. This assumption is less accurate over a short period, which is why I put it in the 5 to 10 minute range. You can shut out the opposition for a few minutes, but not for much longer.
I don't offer any empirical data on this topic, but I think it's a useful formula.

[Backseat Driver]

There are a couple of really important games tonight regarding the conference tournament. Both Wheaton @ Carthage (which also has CCIW title implications) and Millikin @ Elmhurst are huge, as we have a 5-team race, essentially for 3 spots. Right now, IWU is the only team that really can "breathe easy" about being in the tourney.

Wheaton @ Carthage
     Live Stats: http://www.carthage.edu/athleticspages/livestats/wb/xlive.htm
     Video: http://www.carthage.edu/library/webcast/

Millikin @ Elmhurst
     Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/elmhurst/wbball/index.htm
     Video: http://www.bluejaytv.com/

[Backer]

I don't offer any empirical data on this topic, but I think it's a useful formula.

Interesting.  I've often thought similar thoughts to myself but less structured than yours.  I've felt that if my team is ahead by more points than minutes left I breathe a bit easier.  Then as each minute ticks off, have we lost ground or not?  I think  of some sort of correlation between minutes and score.  Perhaps it's as simple as there are normally two possessions per minute if teams hold their possession close to their 30 seconds.  I guess I use the minutes left-spread ratio as a poor man's barometer of the pressure and is it rising or falling.  Is there a storm abrewin'?

[RogK]

Backer, I like your viewpoint (from the perspective of the team with the lead) with regard to size of the lead and minutes remaining.
It raises an ancillary question : at what point is it safe to stop doing whatever got you the lead and switch to sitting on the lead?

[iwu70]

Go Wheaton, beat Carthage!   Looking forward to more Titans tonight vs. NCC @The Shirk.

Down the stretch we go . . . the drive for five!

IWU70

[HCACBBALL]

What's going on at NCC?  Just a young team? 

[Mr. Ypsi]

First regional rankings are out; no real surprises in the Central:

1.  Chicago
2.  UWSP
3.  WashU
4.  IWU
5.  UWEC
6.  Carthage

IWU and Carthage still have each other to play (plus IWU has Millikin, while Carthage has Wheaton) and the conference tourney.  UWSP and UWEC still have each other to play, plus the conference tourney.  Chicago and WashU still have each other (in Chicago), but no conference tourney.  So these rankings WILL change before Selection Sunday!

[RogK]

HCACBBALL, I've seen North Central only twice, the recent 3 pt loss at
Elmhurst and a very early game (vs Trine). I took a look at their stats, to see if anything stands out. In CCIW play, their rebounding and FT att are about even with opponents; they are committing 3 more TOs than the opposition. They are shooting .306 (44/144) 3FG and .357 (147/411) 2FG, while giving up .383 (64/167) 3FG and .466 (190/408) 2FG. You can get away with lower FG pcts if you get a lot more FG att than the opposition, but NC isn't. They shot much better in nonconference play: .375 (75/200) 3FG and .432 (169/391) 2FG. The .357 2FG pct in CCIW play is not good, so it seems that they take too many low pct 2FG shots. If you're going to take a low pct shot, take a 3 -- they count for more when they go in!
But, one can't make any major conclusions based on stats; like any team, it's all about the combination of players' abilities, effort, confidence and health, plus the coach's guidance, strategy, etc. I don't know what NC's  flaws are, compared to other teams. Could be as simple as this : some of their CCIW opponents have been noticeably better than NC, some have been only a little better. It would be nice if they got a win, though; 0-14 is no fun for the players or coaches.