WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

RogK · January 23, 2017, 01:20:54 PM

Here are the team offense eFG pcts for 8 conference games only. Obviously, it is not a full measure of an offense, as it does not include FTs, turnovers, o-rebs.
team 1/2 made 3s + total FGs = / total FG att = eFG%
AUG 26 252 278 / 560 = .496
CRL 21 177 198 / 460 = .430
CTG 32.5 210 242.5 / 504 = .481
ELM 20.5 232 252.5 / 481 = .525
IWU 25 251 276 / 592 = .466
MIL 25 209 234 / 495 = .473
NCC 51 261 312 / 723 = .432
NPU 27 196 223 / 530 = .421
WHE 25.5 228 253.5 / 528 = .480
Wheaton has scored 507 points via FGs (2s and 3s); 507/2 yields the 253.5 figure seen in the formula.

Mr. Ypsi · January 23, 2017, 06:25:01 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 16, 2017, 09:14:39 PM
I noted that there has not been a single repeat winner of POW this season. I wonder if that is unprecedented? Also, we could probably do a contest on who WILL be the first two-time POW winner this season - I'll take a stab at a comeback win by Rebekah Ehresman (though Molly's on such a roll tight now, consecutive wins would not surprise me, and I never rule out Katie McDaniels).

Well, the first repeat winner was just announced, and all my guesses were wrong. It is Elmhurst's Mikaela Eppard. Congratulations to her.

RogK · January 23, 2017, 07:53:12 PM

Hey lmitzel, any word on Diamond Calicott?

Mr. Ypsi · January 23, 2017, 08:21:47 PM

Awaiting the new women's poll - not expecting much. The men's poll was a disaster for conference pride, and in the women's I'm not confident anyone but Wheaton will receive any votes. And they may not regain the top 25 - the teams reasonably close above them either won or lost only to higher ranked teams.

RogK · January 23, 2017, 10:55:38 PM

Here are the defense eFG pcts for conference play only. It does not fully measure a defense (no account of FTs allowed, def rebs or TOs induced).
opp of 1/2 of 3s + total FGs = / total FG att = eFG%
AUG 23.5 226 249.5 / 573 .435
CRL 33 281 314 / 593 .530
CTG 26 193 219 / 534 .410
ELM 24.5 202 226.5 / 487 .465
IWU 28 214 242 / 501 .483
MIL 40.5 237 277.5 / 549 .505
NCC 21.5 279 300.5 / 626 .480
NPU 31 210 241 / 503 .479
WHE 25.5 174 199.5 / 507 .393

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · January 23, 2017, 11:05:18 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 23, 2017, 08:21:47 PM
Awaiting the new women's poll - not expecting much. The men's poll was a disaster for conference pride, and in the women's I'm not confident anyone but Wheaton will receive any votes. And they may not regain the top 25 - the teams reasonably close above them either won or lost only to higher ranked teams.

Wheaton is back in the poll, barely: http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/women/2016-17/week8

Mr. Ypsi · January 23, 2017, 11:10:24 PM

Women's Top 25 now out - better than I expected. Wheaton did make it to #25; Augie got 2 points (either two #25 votes or one #24 vote - no can tell. #23 Rochester and #24 Trine both dropped out, despite losing to higher ranked teams. SUNY-Geneseo jumped Wheaton up to #23 - they are 17-0.

Mr. Ypsi · January 23, 2017, 11:23:41 PM

Since Elmhurst has now made it to 14-3; mildly surprised they didn't get a stray vote or two. I guess that horrible SoS is keeping them down.

RogK · January 24, 2017, 10:45:01 AM

I suspect that Rochester and Trine got demoted a little because they lost, not in spite of it.
Was anyone besides me confused by the first half of CCIW play? North Park beat Carroll by 30, Carroll beat Millikin by 2, Millikin beat Augustana by 15, Augustana beat Illinois Wesleyan by 10 and Illinois Wesleyan beat Wheaton by 1. Therefore... (another humor attempt falls on its face)

lmitzel · January 24, 2017, 01:04:53 PM

Quote from: RogK on January 24, 2017, 10:45:01 AM
I suspect that Rochester and Trine got demoted a little because they lost, not in spite of it.
Was anyone besides me confused by the first half of CCIW play? North Park beat Carroll by 30, Carroll beat Millikin by 2, Millikin beat Augustana by 15, Augustana beat Illinois Wesleyan by 10 and Illinois Wesleyan beat Wheaton by 1. Therefore... (another humor attempt falls on its face)

Basketball is a weird sport? That's how I'd finish that sentence.

Gregory Sager · January 24, 2017, 03:25:51 PM

There's nothing confusing about it at all, really. Women's college basketball is a dynamic sport, not a static sport. Teams frequently get better as the season goes along, or they can decline as the season goes along. But, more to the point, Rog's entire chain hinges upon the only two outlier results out of all 36 of the CCIW's first round-robin games, the Carroll upset of Millikin and the Millikin upset of Augustana. (The former is the lone win of the season for the Pioneers, both overall and in CCIW play.) Nothing else in the chain, or, as I said, the entire first round-robin, falls into the category of being out of the ordinary.

In other words, those two outcomes are the only ones in the entire first round-robin that went beyond "mild upset" and into the "confusing" category. Two weird results out of 36 don't make it a wild and wacky season for the league.

RogK · January 24, 2017, 04:30:57 PM

Yeah, Millikin has been the most unpredictable of the 9 teams.
Looking ahead to tomorrow : Millikin hosting North Park (as an old American proverb states, "could go either way, and probably will"), Augie at IWU (is Kallenberger at full strength?), NCC at Carthage (who's healthy on either team?), Carroll at Elmhurst, Wheaton at IIT.
Three of the games are rematches of last Wednesday's contests (AUG IWU, NCC CTG, CRL ELM).
Additional congrats to Mikaela Eppard for making the D3Hoops team of the week.

iwu70 · January 24, 2017, 07:58:23 PM

Congrats to Ms. Eppard. Great play. She's a tough one to defend.

Big game for IWU at home vs. Augie. If the Titans want to be in a position to win or tie for the regular season championship, this is the game they need. Titans need to stop the dribble penetration, rebound the ball, and shoot a good percentage. Should be a good one. Here we go on the second go'round.

Go TITANS!

IWU'70

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · January 25, 2017, 12:06:50 AM

Quote from: RogK on January 24, 2017, 10:45:01 AM
I suspect that Rochester and Trine got demoted a little because they lost, not in spite of it.

The point was those two teams lost to teams ranked ahead of them in the Top 25... thus by the rankings, one would expect the lower ranked teams (Rochester and Trine) to lose those games... so those losses were expected by the voters, not unexpected like an undefeated, #1 ranked team losing (if it were to happen).

So the point Ypsi was making was maybe it was surprising those teams fell from the polls when their losses were basically predicted.

I, for one, try not to punish a team that losses to a team ranked ahead of them in the polls or I have ranked higher. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I can't really figure out why Rochester and Trine dropped out. Both games were within 10 or 11 points at the end, where well contested, etc. I know if I was voting, I wouldn't have dropped them. Heck, I have moved teams up sometimes if there is other things going on around them that warrants it.

RogK · January 25, 2017, 01:49:11 AM

Hi Dave. I can see why someone might be charitable toward a Rochester or Trine and not want to debit them for a loss to an excellent opponent. However, this borders on rewarding some teams (but not all) for "good losses", thereby blocking advancement of other teams just below them.
I am in favor of reassessment of the entire top 25 weekly, without ceding ownership of any rank to any specific team. Hopefully, the voters do this.
Similarly, preseason rankings are based on 0 games, and should not be used as "pole positions" for the rest of the season (which seems to happen in D1 football and basketball).
Also, my view is that predictions/expectations can cloud how one views a game. Instead, I try to see each game as a new entity, with each team having a fair chance to win.
The intent of all of the above is to encourage constant fair consideration of all teams, including those unranked. You'll notice that I have not criticized any ranking; for all I know, the current top 25 is exactly correct. I just disagree with the idea of continuous ceding of any rank to any team.
Which leads me to a possibly dumb question : is the top 25 supposed to be a ranking of the best performance November-to-now or is it supposed to be a ranking of the best teams at the moment? I think it would be "November-to-now" but am not 100% sure. Thanks.