WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[RogK]

OldSchoolHoopsFan, we need you to make a correction to the stats in Reply 1507. They show Lyndsie Long with a .403 2Pt FG pct, but it should be .532.
In 25 games, she made 159 of 299 2FG att. Your computation went wrong because you had too high of a 2FG att/min.
In her 14 CCIW games, she looks even better : .434 on 3FGs and .570 on 2FGs (86/151).

[Mr. Ypsi]

Men's all-CCIW was posted today.  Anyone know when the women's will be released?

[Moser]

My guess would be Friday after the coaches meeting

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

OldSchoolHoopsFan, we need you to make a correction to the stats in Reply 1507. They show Lyndsie Long with a .403 2Pt FG pct, but it should be .532.
In 25 games, she made 159 of 299 2FG att. Your computation went wrong because you had too high of a 2FG att/min.
In her 14 CCIW games, she looks even better : .434 on 3FGs and .570 on 2FGs (86/151).

RogK you are absolutely correct.  I accidently subtracted the "made 3's" rather than the "attempted 3's" from the total FG attemps.  Here is the correction:

           Solari            Long          Jacklin      Wildman
Min           624         841              694              867
MPG            25         33.6             27.8             34.7
FG/M       0.184         0.270           0.229          0.198
FGA/M     0.332          0..551          0.416          0.364
FG%        0.556          0..490          0.550          0.544
2PtB/M     0.184          0.189          0.228          0.197
2PtA/M     0.332          0.356          0.415          0.363
2Pt%        0.556          0.543          0.549          0.543
3/M          0.000          0.081          0.001          0.001
3A/M        0.000          0.195          0.010          0.003
3%              0            0.415           0.143          0.333
FT/M         0.160          0.111          0.076          0.112
FTA/M       0.213          0.124          0.138          0.158
FT%          0.752          0.894          0.552          0.708
PPM          0.529          0.731          0.536          0.510
OR/M         0.136          0.059          0.084          0.076
DR/M         0.205          0.157          0.187          0.195
TR/M         0.341          0.216          0.271          0.271
F/M           0.091          0.082          0.099          0.062
A/M           0.178          0.061          0.050          0.069
TO/M          0.138          0.086          0.088          0.131
A/T            1.291          0.708          0.574          0.526
B/M            0.014          0.010          0.058          0.062
St/M           0.115          0.037          0.063          0.030
TA/M          1.054          0.814          0.780          0.748

TA = Total Average (Points Scored - (.5 x Missed FG)  + OR + (.75 x DR) - (.5 x F) +(2 x A) - TO + (1.5 x B) + St.

While LL had an outstanding season there is strong statistical evidence that CS was the more dominant player on a per minute basis.  CS's Total Average is 29% higher than LL's and that is a huge margin  I have been using this statistic as a measuring tool on the teams that I coach for over 10 years and that large a margin is an extremely strong indicator that CS was a more outstanding performer than LL.

[bflong]

Agreed... However, all of that is hypothetical... the reality is she didn't play those minutes, they didn't need her too, and LL did and proved to sustain those numbers game in and game out... the question as mentioned before is: would Solari maintain those numbers had she played 33 minutes per game?  IDK...

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

Agreed... However, all of that is hypothetical... the reality is she didn't play those minutes, they didn't need her too, and LL did and proved to sustain those numbers game in and game out... the question as mentioned before is: would Solari maintain those numbers had she played 33 minutes per game?  IDK...

I see your point and it is a good one.  Sustained brilliance has value.  Statistically LL delivered 71% of the per minute production of CS, but did it over 35% more playing time. As a result LL has 4% more output than CS.  I know that numbers don't tell the whole story, but it is interesting how these numbers reflect both sides of this debate. 

[JMM11]

I would have to agree with bflong on this debate.  You cannot play the "what if" game when it comes to players and basketball.  Based on the style of basketball that IWU plays I do not think that CS would be able to play as many minutes as LL. Also, as bflong said all those numbers would be hypothetical for CS, they are not real. 

My final point for this debate is that IWU has so many great players that are scoring threats that their opponents have to have a hard time picking out key players to stop.  I am sure CS is always one of them but each of IWU players has the potential to have  a big night any night and it has happened.  Therefore their opponents have to play solid d on everyone and can't get too focused on one specific players.  In ECs case it is all LL.  Every team knows that they will need to stop her to win. But teams haven't been able to stop her.  She plays over the box and one pressure or over the girl who mirrors her all game long and doesn't care what else is going on in the game.  She is able to overcome the toughest defensive pressure and still put up the leagues highests numbers.  (also if you have checked lately she is the number 2 scorer in teh nation. props to that LL).  I think that if a team put all their focus on CS and double and triple teamed her all night she would not have the same #s as LL.  but teams can't do that to IWU because they have so many other good players that if they soley focus on CS they will get crushed by her teammates.  Basically what I am trying to say is that in my opinion CS does not recieve the same kind of devensive pressure that LL gets game in and game out. 

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

In my opinion the MOP discussion has no relation to hypotheticals or supporting players.  The decision comes down to "What player performed at the most outstanding level over the course of the season?"  Both LL and CS performed admirably, as did many others.  They each maintained this level of play game in and game out while providing leadership and character to their teams. 

LL is a prolific scorer, by far the best in the conference.  Additionally she is an outstanding rebounder for her position (ranks 10th in the CCIW in R/M among players of over 500 min.)  Her assist to turnover ratio and steals per min. are above average (21st and 26th).   Additionally, she performed game after game with a bullseye on her chest. 

CS is a fine offensive player who's presence in the post requires that every opponent either play a sagging zone or constantly double down in the paint.  She ranks 4th in CCIW in P/M and 1st in A/M and her A/T margin is outstanding for a post player (6th).Additionally, she is 1st in the CCIW in R/M and is an extremely close 2nd to teammate HS in steals per min. 

From a scoring standpoint LL is certainly the MOP, but CS has demonstrated a peerless all around game that makes her just as deserving.  My numbers, for what they are worth, have them within 5% of each other in total production so the descision would have to come down to intangibles.  I really wish I had seen both players much more so that I could make a clear choice.  As it is I do not have enough evidence to give either one the award over the other. 

The coaches have  planned their gameplans around negating these LL and CS, and then watched each overcome those obstacles to lead her team to victory time and again.  It will be extremely interesting to see how they vote. 

[RogK]

OldSchoolHoopsFan, I would like you to address some criticisms of your statistical formula without regard to how it affects the current candidates for CCIW MOP.
(1) Fouls are treated as a negative. Offensive fouls are always bad, but are included in the TO count. Defensive fouls can be useful (stopping a layup; making the foulee hit FTs, many of which are missed) or dumb or somewhere in between. Of course, you don't want your top players to be in foul trouble. Overall, I think fouls are a neutral factor. If you're talking about teaching little kids, then I can see the need for discouraging a habit of too much fouling. But at the college level, fouls can be part of a successful defensive stand (one that holds the other team to 0 or 1 pt).
(2) Offensive rebounds are given more value than defensive rebounds. I see one as equal to the other, either keeping a possession alive or starting a new one for the other team. A majority of the time, the defensive team gets the rebound, due to its players being closer to the basket. So, it could be considered more difficult to get an offensive rebound. However, either type of rebound has equal impact on the game.
(3) Missed FGs are a negative, but missed FTs aren't. They should have some effect.
(4) Assists are doubled, but TOs aren't. I think a turnover is more negative than an assist is positive. Plus, some of our scorer's tables are a lot more generous crediting assists (for both teams) than others are. Another thing to consider is that a basket scored with an assist counts the same as a basket scored without any assist credited. Again, if you're talking about kids, you may want to overvalue assists in order to encourage passing. I do highly value ballhandling : having some excellent dribblers is a necessity and is not directly measured positively in the stats. And, doing the bulk of the dribbling doesn't always coincide with getting an assist.
(5) Blocks are given greater value than steals. I would say they're about equal. Steals are better immediately because the defensive team always gets possession, while a blocked shot can end up back in the hands of the offensive team. On the other hand, a blocked shot might have a greater residual effect, discouraging the shooter from going at that defender again. So, I think a block is about as good as a steal.

[mactitan]

It seems to me that either LL or CS are deserving.  All the numbers and stats do is show that either could win. 

I cannot speak about LL, I never saw her play.  I am hoping that Solari wins the award because when I saw her play, I thought that she was the most outstanding player on the court - and that goes beyond her numbers.  She played with class and she played hard. I never once saw her admonish an official.  I never saw her whine about a missed call.  I never saw her yell at a teammate or take a minute off. 

She could get a rebound on one end, take the ball down the court to start a break, make a nice dish or score it herself - and she had the right instincts to know when she had to do that and when she should just make the outlet pass and get into the offense.  IWU didn't need her to score a lot, but when they did - she could.  She seems to have as sense of when she had to take over.  I witnessed the team lose its way when she came off the court - especially early in the season.

To me, she exemplified leadership, value, and outstanding play.  Plus, she was always really nice to my 3-year-old girl after the game when she wanted to go tell her "good game."  For the last two seasons, she was my little girl's hero, and for that, she will always be the Most Outstanding Player in the CCIW - and in all of college basketball as far as I'm concerned.

[Mr. Ypsi]

RogK,

You raise some excellent points about how to value statistics.  As far as fouls, I would add that it would be great if there were some easy way to subtract out the 'deliberate' fouls committed by a trailing team trying to catch up late in the game.  Those fouls clearly should not be held against a player!

[Bulldog8]

This is fun! These blogs are very interesting and competitive. The anticipation is killing me and I'm sure all of you for POY! I was told by a source that we should know tomorrow on All Conference and POY! CANT WAIT!

[iwumichigander]

This is fun! These blogs are very interesting and competitive. The anticipation is killing me and I'm sure all of you for POY! I was told by a source that we should know tomorrow on All Conference and POY! CANT WAIT!

To add a little more anticipation ---
In the 41 years of CCIW Men's Basketball MOP History, there have been three seasons in which Co-MOP selected - 2002, 2000 and 1999.

However, in the 22 years of CCIW Women's Basketball MOP History, there have never been Co-MOP selections.  Could this season be the a "first" in CCIW History for Women's Basketball Co-MOP selections?

[RogK]

By the way, even though IWU gets to play on its home court this weekend, they play the later game Friday. The Carthage - Elmhurst (5 pm) winner will get a 2 and 1/2 hour longer turnaround or interval than will the winner of the IWU - Millikin 7:30 game.
mactitan, you couldn't have complimented Christina more than what your last post did. She sets a great example for any player to follow, playing hard and smart, always displaying a wonderful attitude. Any coach would be thrilled to have her (and sister Karen) on the team. Mia Smith got 'em both!

[RogK]

I just heard from a coach (not IWU, not Elmhurst) who was concerned that our compliments toward Christina's personality in the context of the MOP discussion might infer in one or more of our readers' minds that Lyndsie Long or the others might not be as wonderful player-wise or personality-wise as Christina.
To delete any such inference, I'll state that all players mentioned in our discussion for MOP are top-notch young women in any category you want to look at. In fact, I can't think of any unpleasant players on any CCIW team.