WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[RogK]

In the 14 rounds of conference play, 56 total games, here is a breakdown of team scoring:
in the 30s : 3
40s : 12
50s : 18
60s : 33
70s : 27
80s : 16
90s : 3
One of those famous bell-shaped curves.

[Moser]

The latest Central Region rankings (in-region record listed first):

1. Illinois Wesleyan (#1 CCIW) 21-1 24-1
2. Carthage (#2 CCIW) 19-2 22-3
3. Washington U. (#1 UAA) 19-2 22-2
4. Chicago (#2 UAA) 19-5 19-5
5. UW-Whitewater (#1 WIAC) 18-5 19-6
6. St. Norbert (#1 MWC) 20-3 20-3

Carthage and IWU should both be NCAA tourney teams regardless of this weekend's results.

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

With those rankings, if someone other than IWU or Carthage wins the conference tourney, would the CCIW have three teams in the NCAA's?

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

RogK thanks for taking such an interest in my TA number.  I should have explained that is not meant to be an all purpose evaluator, but rather just an adjustment to the P/M stat to include other measurable aspects of play. 

Specifically regarding fouls my computations for this level of play indicate that, on the average, each foul is worth .513 of a point to the other team.  This is just a measure of Free Throws as a result of fouls and does not take into consideration anything like extended time of posession or defensive effectiveness

Similarly, regarding rebounds, offensive rebounds lead to a basket just over 50% of the time, hence they are the same value as a point.  Defensive rebounds lead to a basket only 36% of the time - hence the multiplier.

Missed field goals result in an opponent basket 27% of the time, but missed free throws result in actually less opponents points than made free throws because after a made free throw the opponent always gets the ball, but after a missed free throw there is an opportunity for an offensive rebound. 

Assists always result in a basket, thus they are multiplied by two.  Turnovers result in a basket about half the time so they are worth the same a a point. 

Blocks result in no basket and loss of posession about 90% of the time. That is why they have a multiplier.  Certainly, not all blocks wipe out shots that would be going in, so the multiplier is reduced to take into considerration shots that would have missed anyway.  Steals only lead to baskets about 50% of the time so they are wortha about as much as a point. 

The Total Average is Total in name only.  I have yet to find a way to use statistics to measure everything.  However, I am constantly tinkering with the formula.  It varies for every level of play and I also adjust it based on a team's total offensive effectiveness if I am complaring players from the same team.  With that in mind I would certainly entertain any suggestions that you still have in light of my explanations. 

[Moser]

With those rankings, if someone other than IWU or Carthage wins the conference tourney, would the CCIW have three teams in the NCAA's?

I think that is a pretty safe bet. The UAA does not have a conference tourney, so Wash U. is in. Even if IWU, Carthage, Whitewater, and St. Norbert all lose in their conference tournaments and thus require a Pool C bid to get into the tournament, IWU and Carthage would still be the top 2 teams in the region and have solid Pool C resumes. Bob Quillman (Titan Q) was on Hoopsville this past weekend and said that Carthage is a Pool C lock (obviously IWU would be also).

It would be great to see three teams make it, though I suspect IWU and Carthage are not so willing to let that happen.

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

It would be great to see three teams make it, though I suspect IWU and Carthage are not so willing to let that happen.

I have to agree. 

[RogK]

OldSchoolHoopsFan,
I appreciate your explanations.
It is pretty much impossible to come up with a statistical measure of everything in basketball. I've seen plus-minus stats in some NBA box scores (they've been used in hockey for a long time, of course), but that doesn't accurately rate individuals either.
My ideal formula would be one that would exactly reflect the final score of a game, when applied to all the individual players' stats in the game. In other words, if Wheaton beat Elmhurst 70-60, then all of the individual Total Averages for the Wheaton players should add up to some amount that is a 7:6 ratio of the sum Total Averages for Elmhurst's players in that game, using only that game's stats.

[OldSchoolHoopsFan]

A Holy Grail.

[Mr. Ypsi]

There's a very passionate debate going on the MIAA women's board regarding POY, that very much mirrors the debate here.  One player has generally the better stats, but there are significant differences in PT, team needs for scoring, etc.

They don't seem any more likely to reach a consensus than we did!

[iwumichigander]

With those rankings, if someone other than IWU or Carthage wins the conference tourney, would the CCIW have three teams in the NCAA's?

I think that is a pretty safe bet. The UAA does not have a conference tourney, so Wash U. is in. Even if IWU, Carthage, Whitewater, and St. Norbert all lose in their conference tournaments and thus require a Pool C bid to get into the tournament, IWU and Carthage would still be the top 2 teams in the region and have solid Pool C resumes. Bob Quillman (Titan Q) was on Hoopsville this past weekend and said that Carthage is a Pool C lock (obviously IWU would be also).

It would be great to see three teams make it, though I suspect IWU and Carthage are not so willing to let that happen.

A reminder, the UAA teams are placed with their geographic regions.  If the current rankings hold up as is, IWU or Carthage would be "first up" for the central region in Pool C discussion.   Also, with the current rankings (again assuming they hold up), both Wash U and Chicago become obstacles for any other team from another central conference other than the CCIW from getting a Pool C bid.

[Mr. Ypsi]

IF Carthage doesn't get AQ, I suspect they'd fall behind WashU (but not a major impediment to a Pool C, since I think WashU already has the AQ locked up).  Due to h-to-h, IWU would probably remain above WashU.

Either way, I suspect they'd both be locks, so nonpartisans of IWU or Carthage might want to root for another team to win the conference tourney, so we'd have 3 teams in (pretty sure that would be a CCIW first?).  If I weren't rooting for IWU, I go with Elmhurst - if LL gets rolling, they might even win a couple of games, which I doubt the Big Blue would accomplish.

[JMM11]

I am really hoping for some upsets this weekend.  Although it is hard for me to imagine the big blue defeating IWU, i can see a great game and a pretty close matchup between Carthage and EC.  EC is definetly looking for some revenge after that buzzer beater a couple weeks ago.  And the winner of that game either carthage or ec will be a good match up against IWU.  Carthage already proved they can play with them and come out victorious and EC has played with IWU for most of the game this year but hasn't been able to finish.  So if EC gets to see IWU again they will be looking to finally put one away against the titans.  It should be a great couple of games friday and a great game saturday.  the suspense is starting to kill me!!!!

[Moser]

Either way, I suspect they'd both be locks, so nonpartisans of IWU or Carthage might want to root for another team to win the conference tourney, so we'd have 3 teams in (pretty sure that would be a CCIW first?).

It would be the first time 3 teams have made it, but the CCIW had 4 teams in the tourney in 1996: Millikin (lost in third round), Wheaton (lost in second round), Carthage (lost in first round), IWU (lost in first round).

[Bulldog8]

Very awesome acknowledgment for Lyndsie Long. WBCA's So You Want To Be A Coach Class of 2010 Announced. Visit this site and read further: http://www.wbca.org/releases/2010SoClassPR.html. Also, I was told most likely All-Conference will be announced tomorrow and not today. Stay tuned.

[RogK]

Best wishes to Lyndsie if she decides to pursue coaching as a career. Every kid on her team would have to learn how to make threes, I bet!
That gathering in San Antonio is at the beginning of April, so it won't be too roastingly hot yet.
Some years ago, I was wandering some residential San Antonio neighborhood, killing time before attending an evening minor league baseball game. I remember two features of that neighborhood. One was that a lot of people had pecan trees in their front yard, so I helped myself to a few pecans that had already fallen into the lawn. The other aspect of the area was that several residents did not chain their dogs or have fences. So, I got some menacing greetings from a few of them (the dogs, that is). Fortunately, none were pit bulls.